February 2025 was a month that reflected the current challenges and prospects for the Ukrainian and global economies. Geopolitical tensions, inflationary pressures, and global changes in trade flows continue to affect economic development. Maksim Urakin, Founder of the Experts Club Information and Analytical Center, PhD in Economics, noted that Ukraine is showing signs of gradual economic recovery despite the difficult internal and external conditions.
Ukraine’s economy in February 2025
According to the National Bank, real GDP growth in January 2025 was 3.4% compared to the same period in 2024. The main drivers of growth were:
– Agriculture: the recovery in exports and the expansion of sales markets provided an increase of 6.5%.
– IT sector: IT services remained a key source of foreign exchange earnings, showing an increase of 10.4%.
– Construction: thanks to large-scale investments in infrastructure and international support, the sector grew by 4.2%.
“Amid the ongoing war and global turmoil, Ukraine’s economy is showing both signs of recovery and certain problems that need attention,” said Maksym Urakin, founder of Experts Club.
In January 2025, annual inflation was 12.9%, which is higher than in 2024 (12%). This is due to rising food and energy prices. At the same time, the hryvnia exchange rate remains relatively stable, fluctuating between UAH 39-40 per dollar, thanks to the support of international partners and export earnings.
“The decline in inflation is a positive signal for the economy, but an important task remains to increase the level of household incomes to compensate for the impact of past inflationary shocks,” Urakin emphasized.
In January 2025, Ukraine’s exports increased to $3.1 billion, driven by shipments of products and metals. However, imports also increased, mainly due to energy and equipment. The negative balance of foreign trade remains.
“Export dynamics show that Ukrainian companies are actively looking for new markets. Strengthening competitiveness and improving logistics could be the key to reducing the trade deficit,” Urakin said.
In January 2025, the state budget revenues of Ukraine amounted to UAH 282.8 billion, including UAH 128.2 billion for the general fund, which is 83.4% and 10.5% more than in January 2024, respectively. The main role in this was played by revenues from VAT and excise taxes, as well as international assistance. Ukraine’s international reserves increased to $40.1 billion, one of the highest levels in recent years.
“Financial support from international partners remains an important factor in macroeconomic stability. However, it is important to lay the foundation for independent economic growth now,” Urakin emphasized.
Global economic situation in February 2025
According to the IMF, global GDP is expected to grow by 2.9% in 2025, slightly lower than in 2024 (3%). The main reasons for the slowdown are the high cost of borrowing, uncertainty in the financial markets and a decline in global demand.
THE UNITED STATES: The economy is showing moderate growth at 2.3%, driven by robust domestic demand and investment in innovative industries.
European Union: The growth rate remains low at 1.1% due to the ongoing energy crisis and problems in the industry.
China: Growth slowed to 4.5%, due to the real estate crisis and a decline in exports.
India: Stable growth of 6.8%, remaining one of the fastest growing economies.
“The global economy is in a state of fragile balance. The main risks are related to geopolitical instability and high interest rates. However, countries with diversified economies are better able to cope with these challenges,” – Mr. Urakin said.
Oil: Oil prices in February 2025 are around $83 per barrel, having stabilized after the spikes of late 2024.
Gas: The European market continues to be under pressure, with an average gas price of €67 per MWh, due to persistent supply shortages.
Metals: Demand for steel and aluminum has declined, putting pressure on the export capacity of developing countries.
Central banks in major economies are keeping interest rates high to fight inflation. For example, the US Federal Reserve keeps its interest rate at 5.5%, which limits access to cheap capital but helps to reduce inflation.
Ukraine’s economy in February 2025 shows signs of stability and growth, but risks associated with inflation, foreign trade deficit, and dependence on international aid remain. The global economy is slowing down, which creates additional challenges for emerging market countries.
“It is important for Ukraine to continue attracting foreign investment, developing its export potential and strengthening its domestic market. Only systemic reforms and integration into the global economy will allow us to overcome the current difficulties and create the basis for long-term growth,” summarized Maksim Urakin.
You can learn more about current trends in the global economy in the video on the Experts Club YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LT0sE3ymMnQ
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The Export Credit Agency (ECA) supported UAH 1.31 billion of Ukrainian exports in January 2025, which is twice as much as in the entire first quarter of 2024, First Vice Prime Minister and Minister of Economy Yulia Svyrydenko said.
“One of the key areas of the ‘Made in Ukraine’ policy is to support and develop non-resource exports. Thanks to cooperation with the ECA, Ukrainian exporters reduce their risks and get the opportunity to get cheaper loans, and thus increase sales abroad.
It is important that such cooperation is expanding, and each hryvnia of insurance liability is converted into almost UAH 14 of future export revenue,” the press service of the Ministry of Economy quoted her as saying.
The ministry noted that in the first month of 2025, export credits in the ECA were insured by Creditwestbank, FUIB, and Oschadbank. Entrepreneurs from Khmelnytskyi and Zaporizhzhia regions and the city of Kyiv used this opportunity most often.
These companies produce furniture, ready-made grain and flour products, alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages, and dairy products. Their products are exported to 17 countries, including Bulgaria, Denmark, Germany, Hungary, the United Arab Emirates, and Romania, the Ministry of Economy added.
As reported, in 2024, the ECA supported UAH 7.53 billion of Ukrainian exports. The tools of the Export Credit Agency of Ukraine are one of the elements of the “Made in Ukraine” policy. Its goal is to support non-resource exports, develop production and attract investment in the real sector.
In Ukraine on Monday, February 17, at night in the north, in the afternoon in most central and eastern regions of light snow, in the rest of the territory without precipitation, reported Ukrhydrometcenter.
Wind of variable directions, 3-8 m/s. The roads are icy.
The temperature at night is 10-15° frost, in the Carpathians, in the east of the country, Sumy and Chernihiv regions up to 18° frost, during the day 2-7° frost; in the southern part and in Transcarpathia at night 6-11° frost, during the day about 0°.
In Kiev on February 17, there will be light snow at night and no precipitation during the day. The wind is variable, 3-8 m/s. The roads are icy. The temperature at night is 11-13° frost, while in the daytime it will be 4-6° frost.
According to the Central Geophysical Observatory named after Boris Sreznevsky. Borys Sreznevsky, in Kiev on February 17, the highest temperature during the day was 11.1 ° in 1974, the lowest at night -21.8 ° in 1892.
Tuesday, February 18, in Ukraine without precipitation. The roads are icy, wind of variable directions, 3-8 m/s.
The temperature at night 10-15° frost, in the Carpathians and in the east of the country in some places up to 18°, in Transcarpathia and southern regions 7-12° frost; in the daytime 1-6° frost, in the southern part and in Transcarpathia about 0°.
In Kiev on February 18 – no precipitation, icy, wind of variable directions, 3-8 m/s.
The temperature at night is 11-13°; during the day 1-3° of frost.
Quotes of interbank currency market of Ukraine (UAH for $1, in 01.10.2024-31.10.2024)
Source: Open4Business.com.ua
In 2024, PJSC “Industrial and Production Association ‘Kryvbassvibukhprom’ increased the payment of taxes and mandatory payments to the budgets of all levels by 51% compared to the previous year, up to UAH 160.5 million.
According to the company, UAH 125 million of this amount went to the state budget and UAH 35.5 million to local budgets.
“The amount of payments to the budget increased by 51% due to the growth in the volume of work performed and, despite the difficult times of war, an increase in wages,” the press release states.
“Krivbassvibrokhprom provides blasting services in the quarries of Ukrainian mining companies. It is a major producer of emulsion and non-waterproof explosives. The company’s technological chain includes storage, processing, transportation and blasting operations.
According to the third quarter of 2024, Quarex Ltd. (Cyprus) owns 93.164% of the company’s shares, while SCM Group’s UMG holds 6.5619%.
The authorized capital of Kryvbassvibrokom is UAH 97.022 million, with a share par value of UAH 1.
Join UP!, one of the leaders of the Ukrainian travel market, is opening a company in the Czech Republic, with an office in Prague, the company’s press service toldInterfax-Ukraine.
“Entering the Czech market is an important stage in the brand’s development. Although this is the ninth country where we have started working since the creation of Join UP! tour operator in 2010 in Ukraine, this story is not only about growth for us. Scaling the Join UP! travel experience to other markets also reflects our commitment to transforming the travel industry and encouraging people to travel, because we sincerely believe that travel is not just entertainment, but also a way to take care of yourself and your loved ones, to live every day of your life to the fullest, despite all the challenges of recent years,” comments Alina Alba, co-founder of Join UP! Alina Alba, co-founder of Join UP!
It is reported that the new tour operator will soon present a summer selection of its top destinations to the Czech market. Among them are direct flights from Prague to Sharm el-Sheikh in Egypt, as well as to the Mediterranean resorts of Greece, Turkey, and Cyprus. It is also noted that from Katowice, Poland, the tour operator offers flights to Egypt, the Dominican Republic, Greece, Turkey, Tunisia, Bulgaria, Spain, Montenegro, and Cyprus. Such a flight program opens up additional opportunities for our compatriots to spend their holidays in the Czech Republic. In particular, from Ostrava, where there are many Ukrainians, it is an hour’s drive to Katowice, Poland, which is almost four times closer than Prague.
The Join UP! brand is developing on the principle of localism by combining a global strategy with the local cultural context. The brand’s international expansion already covers 8 markets: the Baltic States, Kazakhstan, Moldova, Poland, Romania, and the Czech Republic. Preparations for the launch in Slovakia and Hungary are nearing completion.
Also in Poland, in Katowice, in 2024, the brand opened the first franchise agency on the international market.
Join UP! LLC was established in 2013, with an authorized capital of UAH 72 million 671 thousand. The ultimate beneficiaries are Yuriy and Oleksandr Alba. In 2023, revenue increased to UAH 16 million 639 thousand, which is 2.3 times higher than in 2022.
