Export of important goods from Ukraine in Jan-Oct 2023
Source: Open4Business.com.ua and experts.news
The majority of Ukrainian refugees and internally displaced persons surveyed (65% and 72% respectively) still express a desire to return home one day, but their share has decreased.
This is evidenced by the study of the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) “Life in Waiting: Intentions and Prospects of Refugees, Refugee-Repatriates and IDPs from Ukraine”, the results of which are published on its website.
According to UN data, the share of refugees who plan or hope to return to Ukraine in the future has decreased compared to last year (from 77% to 65%), but the share of those who are undecided about returning has increased (from 18% to 24%), as well as those who have no hope of returning (from 5% to 11%). A similar trend is observed among internally displaced persons.
According to the report on the results of the survey, the interviewed IDPs predominantly named the danger in Ukraine as the main factor hindering their return. Other problems were the lack of economic opportunities and housing. A significant part of the interviewed Ukrainian refugees (about 59%) indicated that they may be forced to return home if they continue to face problems in the host countries, mainly related to work opportunities and legal status.
It is also noted that more refugees are now making short-term visits to Ukraine – almost 50% compared to 39% last year, mainly to visit family members but also to check on their property.
The UN believes that such visits may eventually contribute to fully informed decisions on long-term return when conditions are conducive.
The UN recalls that there are now nearly 6.5 million refugees from Ukraine seeking asylum around the world and nearly 3.7 million people remain internally displaced.
UNHCR’s report is based on interviews conducted between January and February 2024 with nearly 4,000 refugee households in Europe, 4,800 internally displaced households in Ukraine and about 1,100 refugee households returning to Ukraine (total sample of over 9,900 households).
Presidential Press Secretary Serhiy Nikiforov has announced a major conference on February 25 on the future path of Ukraine, which will be attended by “all top speakers from the government, the military and political leadership, and the Prime Minister.”
“On February 25, we are preparing something special. It will be a conference, an honest conversation about our path forward, our path in 2024. All the top speakers from the government, the military and political leadership, the Prime Minister, the Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada, the Security Service, the GUR, the Ministry of Strategic Industries will be there. The first lady will be there, the Ministry of Infrastructure, the Presidential Office and, of course, the president himself,” said presidential spokesman Sergei Nikiforov on the air of a nationwide telethon on Wednesday evening.
“It will be an honest conversation about our way forward, our way in 2024,” Nikiforov said.
He said that “we will talk about various aspects of Ukraine’s future, including the future of the army and its development, the introduction of modern technologies, our integration into the EU and NATO, what has already been done, security guarantees. We will talk about mental and physical health. We will talk about business support. We will talk about many aspects of the country’s life…”
“Following this conference, the President of Ukraine will take the floor and hold a press conference. He will outline his vision of the topics and answer the main questions,” Nikiforov added.
Former US President Donald Trump has named six people who could become his vice presidential candidates in his bid for the presidency, Fox News reported on Wednesday.
“To be honest, all of these people are good. They’re good, they’re reliable,” he said on Tuesday, speaking about the people on his shortlist in an interview with the TV channel.
The list includes three of Trump’s former rivals in the Republican primaries – Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, Senator Tim Scott and entrepreneur Vivek Ramasavamy. Trump also named South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem, House member Byron Donalds, and former House member Tulsi Gabbard, who left the Democratic Party in 2022, as potential vice presidential candidates.
Fox News notes that Trump often makes such statements without preparation, and this list may not be entirely accurate. In particular, the TV channel doubts that DeSantis can become a candidate for vice president, as the politicians have repeatedly criticized each other over the past year.
The internal party elections will end in June. The Republican Party convention, which will announce the presidential candidate, will be held in July.
The US presidential election is scheduled for November 5, 2024.
The State Property Fund has completed the valuation of the Ukraina Hotel and plans to hold an auction for its privatization in late summer 2024, and for the Ocean Plaza shopping mall in the second half of the year, Vitaliy Koval, the head of the SPF, said in an interview with Mind.
“We have already completed the valuation of the hotel, which amounts to UAH 1.039 billion excluding VAT. We are now preparing for the auction, which we plan to hold in late summer, maybe even in the third quarter,” he said.
According to the SPF head, foreign operators are interested in privatizing the Ukraina Hotel, in particular, as they are considering upgrading it to a five-star hotel.
In addition, according to him, more than three bidders are considering participation in the auction for the privatization of the Ocean Plaza shopping center, and the Fund has received inquiries from investment funds and development companies.
As reported, the Ukraina Hotel is a state-owned enterprise managed by the SPF. It has 363 rooms, six conference halls, and meeting rooms. There is a parking lot for 80 cars and a shelter with a separate auditorium for 50 people. At the same time, the hotel’s debt is over UAH 45 million.
Ocean Plaza was opened in Kyiv in December 2012 at 176 Antonovycha Street. Its total area is 165 thousand square meters. Investments in the facility amounted to approximately $300 million. UDP and K.A.N. Development LLC acted as partners in the development of the project.
The mall was sold to Arkady Rotenberg’s Russian TPS Real Estate in 2012. Later, in 2019, Ukrainian businessman Vasyl Khmelnytsky indirectly acquired a 33.5% stake in Ocean Plaza through UPD Holdings Limited. In 2021, he sold his stake to entrepreneur Andriy Ivanov. The deal was finalized in the summer of 2023.
In June 2023, the Cabinet of Ministers transferred a 66.65% stake in the authorized capital of Lybid Investment Union LLC, which owns the mall, to the SPFU for further privatization.
Export sales of Ukrainian wheat are growing, with more than 2 million tons contracted since the beginning of February, which could be a record supply for the season.
According to the analytical cooperative “Start”, created within the framework of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council (AAC), 1.4 million tons of wheat have already been sold in March.
“Traders say that Indonesia is very actively involved in purchases of Ukrainian feed wheat. This Asian country has sky-high prices in the domestic market and is interested in importing grain. The demand price from Indonesia is $260-265/ton CIF,” the analysts said, adding that it is very profitable to export Ukrainian wheat to Indonesia.
According to them, the “fly in the ointment” in these plans is the conflict in the Red Sea, where there is a high risk of shelling of the merchant fleet. This is still a systemic problem that negatively affects trade in the Black and Mediterranean Seas. The risk is holding back Ukrainian traders from fixing their positions in this direction.
“There are expectations in the market that in the second half of March the passage of ships through the Red Sea may stop completely. A logistical solution would be to detour ships by sea through Africa, but this will raise the cost of freight by $10-12 per ton,” Pusk said.
In addition, experts noted that Ukrainian wheat continues to be the cheapest on most international markets.
Last week, Ukraine sold wheat with a protein content of 12.5% to Egypt for $224 per tonne with delivery to the country. For comparison, Russian wheat cost $245 on an FOB basis. Ukrainian wheat is very cheap compared to other grains in the EU, Egypt and Turkey. The trade tries to keep prices low to make it worthwhile to trade on many bases. Price gaps are large, which keeps the CPT market at low levels. Nevertheless, more and more sellers are coming forward on FOB basis for wheat, with many farmers willing to sell at $195 per tonne in the Danube ports. At the same time, on CPT terms, wheat costs $175-188 per ton, and by the end of the week, the price tags may lose another $2 per ton, according to the analytical department of Pusk.
