Agricultural production in Ukraine in January-September 2025 decreased by 14% compared to January-September 2024, while in January-August the decline was 8.4%, according to the State Statistics Service (SSS).
According to its data, during the reporting period, livestock production decreased by 4.4%, and crop production by 16.4% compared to the same period in 2024.
At the same time, in crop production, the main decline was in enterprises – 20.9%, while in private households, the decline was 6.1%.
At the same time, the situation in livestock production was the opposite: enterprises reduced production by only 1.4%, while private households reduced it by 8.9%.
A significant decline in production was recorded in the Donetsk, Kherson, and Dnipropetrovsk regions, where production fell by 43.9%, 33.1%, and 24.4%, respectively. In the case of the Donetsk region, there was an 18.5-fold drop in livestock production by enterprises.
A reduction of more than 20% in agricultural production also occurred in the Sumy and Chernihiv regions, which suffer from constant shelling, but the Khmelnytsky region is also on this list.
As for growth, according to the results of nine months, it was recorded in only one region, where there was the least shelling during the war – Zakarpattia, and amounted to 2.7%, including a threefold increase in livestock production by enterprises.
As reported, according to the results of eight months of this year, crop production decreased by 9.7%, and livestock production by 4.9%. In particular, in January-August of this year, the decline in crop production amounted to 12.2%, and livestock production – 2.4%, while in households – 5.3% and 8.6%, respectively.
In January-September 2025, Ukrnafta completed the drilling of 15 new wells, with another 10 currently being drilled. A total of 25 new facilities are planned to be commissioned by the end of the year, according to a press release issued by the company on Monday.
“We are maintaining production growth: +4.5% for oil and +1.7% for gas,” said Yuriy Tkachuk, acting chairman of the board of Ukrnafta.
According to the company, Ukrnafta uses 3D geological modeling, API-standard equipment, digital solutions, and artificial intelligence technologies to achieve significant results.
Over the past three years, Ukrnafta has conducted 1,330 square kilometers of 3D seismic surveys, which creates the basis for expanding the company’s resource base and helps to drill new wells more efficiently.
Ukrnafta is Ukraine’s largest oil production company and operates the national network of gas stations. In March 2024, it took over the management of Glusco’s assets and currently operates a total of 663 gas stations. It holds 92 special permits for industrial development of deposits. It has 1,832 oil and 154 gas production wells on its balance sheet.
The largest shareholder of Ukrnafta is Naftogaz of Ukraine with a 50%+1 share. In November 2022, the Supreme Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine decided to transfer the company’s corporate rights, which belonged to private owners, to the state, and they are currently managed by the Ministry of Defense.
Ukrnafta’s net profit for 2024 was UAH 16.38 billion.
The European Union is discussing the possibility of accepting new member states without granting them a full set of rights, including the right of veto, in order to speed up the enlargement process. This was reported by Politico, citing diplomatic sources in Brussels.
According to the publication, the proposal is at an early stage and requires unanimous approval from all 27 member states. Under the plan, candidate countries would be able to enjoy the main benefits of membership — access to the single market, EU funds, and political programs — but would only be granted veto rights and participation in certain decisions after the completion of institutional reforms in the European Union.
This refers, in particular, to a gradual transition from the principle of unanimous voting to a qualified majority mechanism, which would make it possible to bypass blockages by individual states.
Anton Hofreiter, chairman of the Bundestag’s European Affairs Committee, said that future members should “temporarily waive their veto rights until internal EU reforms are completed.”
“We cannot allow one or two countries to slow down the expansion of the Union,” the German MP stressed.
According to Politico, Austria and Sweden are among the supporters of the initiative, believing that such an approach would help overcome resistance from Budapest and some other capitals that fear losing influence and economic positions.
However, the idea has already met with resistance not only from Hungary, but also from France and the Netherlands, where concerns have been expressed about the “erosion” of the principle of equal membership.
Montenegro’s President Jakov Milatović commented to the publication that the enlargement process “needs to be revitalized,” recalling that Croatia was the last country to join the EU more than ten years ago.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen previously stated that EU enlargement remains a strategic priority and that Ukraine and Moldova could potentially join by 2030. However, most member states are currently refraining from speeding up the process.
On Wednesday, October 22, a summit will be held in London as part of the Berlin Process, where EU leaders will discuss with representatives of the Western Balkan countries further steps towards the region’s integration into the European Union.
According to Politico sources, the European Commission is also considering the option of conducting separate stages of negotiations with candidates without the need for unanimous agreement from all members, which would allow it to circumvent the risk of a blockade, primarily from Hungary.
Currently, Ukraine, Moldova, Serbia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Albania, and Bosnia and Herzegovina have the status of candidate countries for EU membership. Turkey has been negotiating membership since 2005, but the process is effectively frozen.
Ukrainian blueberry producers continue to actively develop exports, expanding the geography of supplies to countries in Southeast Europe. This was reported by the Union of Blueberry Producers and Exporters (SVEL) following its participation in the Fruit Attraction 2025 international exhibition, which took place in Madrid, according to Experts Club.
“Our union brings together five small and medium-sized companies that find it difficult to export on their own. Thanks to cooperation, we are able to supply fresh Ukrainian blueberries to European countries,” said Oleg Shishmarov, head of the UBE.
Despite the cool spring, which delayed the harvest season by two weeks, this year the union members managed to harvest over 350 tons of blueberries, of which approximately 250 tons were exported. The main destinations for deliveries were Serbia, Romania, and Moldova.
“The demand for Ukrainian blueberries is steadily growing. We are looking to expand exports to Western European countries, particularly Germany and Spain. During our season, Spain does not have its own blueberries, so local traders are actively buying Ukrainian berries,” Shishmarov explained.
According to FAO Stat and the World Blueberry Organization, the global blueberry market continues to grow by 6–8% annually. In 2024, global production exceeded 2 million tons, more than double the amount ten years ago.
The main producers are:
the United States — about 500,000 tons;
China — over 460,000 tons;
Peru — about 340,000 tons (one of the leaders in exports to the EU);
Chile — over 230,000 tons;
Canada — 150,000 tons;
Spain and Poland — leading suppliers to the domestic European market.
Ukraine is among the top 20 blueberry producers in the world, accounting for about 0.6% of global production. According to estimates by Experts Club analysts, in 2025, the area under blueberries in Ukraine exceeded 4,000 hectares, and exports tripled compared to 2021.
Experts expect that in the coming years, the Balkans — particularly Serbia, Romania, and Moldova — will remain Ukraine’s key partners in the regional berry market, while prospects for further expansion are opening up in Western European countries.
This article presents key macroeconomic indicators for Ukraine and the global economy as of the end of June 2025. The analysis is based on current data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine (SSSU), the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank, and leading national statistical agencies (Eurostat, BEA, NBS, ONS, TurkStat, IBGE). Maksim Urakin, Director of Marketing and Development at Interfax-Ukraine, Candidate of Economic Sciences and founder of the Experts Club information and analytical center, presented an overview of current macroeconomic trends.
Macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine
Ukraine ended the first half of 2025 in a state of moderate but fragile stabilization. After a “flat” start to the year and a weak first quarter, which the NBU assessed as a period of subdued activity, in April-June the economy maintained positive momentum primarily due to domestic consumption and sectors that adapted to military logistics. In its April decision, the NBU kept the policy rate at 15.5%, emphasizing the need to support currency stability and reduce inflation expectations; in its July decision, the regulator confirmed this level, which anchored rates for hryvnia instruments.
Inflation slowed significantly: in June, the annual rate fell to 14.3% y/y (from 15.9% in May), reflecting a combination of tighter monetary policy, currency stability, and price adjustments for certain food groups; the monthly rate was +0.8%. This is the first significant “dip” in annual inflation below 15% this year.
Foreign trade remains the main source of imbalances. In January–May, exports of goods amounted to about $16.95 billion, imports to $31.54 billion, and the negative balance deepened to $14.6 billion (+49% y/y). The key drivers of imports were energy, machinery, and chemicals; exports were structurally biased toward food and raw materials.
Against the backdrop of the trade gap, international reserves remained an important buffer. As of July 1, 2025, they reached $45.1 billion (+1.2% in June) thanks to large inflows from partners (in particular, the EU, Canada, and the World Bank), which exceeded FX interventions and debt payments. This is a historically high level for Ukraine and a critical safety margin for the currency market.
“Current growth is supported by consumption and official financing; without the launch of an investment cycle, it will remain low and unsustainable. International reserves are a stabilization tool, not a source of development; the effect will only appear after they are converted into value-added projects. The trade deficit, in turn, is structural in nature: it should be addressed through logistics, energy modernization, and localization of production, not just exchange rate decisions,” said Maksim Urakin.
The debt burden has increased. As of June 30, 2025, the total public and publicly guaranteed debt was estimated at approximately $184.8 billion (equivalent to UAH 7.697 trillion), adding nearly $3.9 billion in a month. External liabilities structurally prevail, which increases dependence on official financing.
International support remained systemic. On June 30, the IMF completed the eighth review of the EFF program and approved further financing (total payments under the program exceeded $10 billion), while confirming Ukraine’s fulfillment of key criteria and continuation of structural reforms.
“The second quarter showed that the economy has learned to operate in a mode of constant shocks — we see the resilience of small and medium-sized businesses, the flexibility of logistics, and the rapid reorientation of exporters. But the fundamentals remain unchanged: the investment cycle has not been launched, and the trade deficit is structural; it will not disappear without a targeted industrial policy and incentives for localizing production. The discount rate of 15.5% is a compromise between the price of money and currency stability; it works as long as official financing enters the country. If we want to get out of “survival mode,” we need long-term money to restore energy, logistics hubs, and high-tech production. Reserves of over $45 billion are not a reason to relax, but a window of opportunity that must be converted into value-added projects, otherwise exchange rate stability will remain expensive and temporary,” Maksim Urakin emphasized:
Global economy
The world moved unevenly in the first half of 2025. After a technical contraction in the first quarter (-0.5% SAAR, -0.1% q/q), the US entered the second quarter with a recovery in demand: by the end of June, there were already signs of easing price pressure on the PCE index (≈2.5% y/y in May) and stabilization of household spending. Later official estimates show a significant rebound in the second quarter, but as of June 30, the key picture was “cold” demand amid high interest rates.
The eurozone showed a contrast: after a strong Q1 (+0.6% q/q), momentum moderated in April–June; preliminary estimates show Q2 added +0.1% q/q. The factors were weak external conditions, a correction in industry, and cautious consumers, despite easing inflation. The UK remained a positive exception among the G7: +0.7% q/q in Q1 and +0.3% q/q in Q2, although inflation accelerated to 3.6% y/y in June, slowing down the pace of monetary policy easing.
China maintained a pace close to its official target: GDP +5.2% y/y in Q2 (after +5.4% in Q1), but inflation remained sluggish — June CPI +0.1% y/y, reflecting weak domestic consumption and pressure from real estate. Exports and industrial production drove growth, but the question of the sustainability of domestic demand remained open.
Turkey grew by 2.0% y/y in Q1; inflation in June fell to ≈35% y/y, demonstrating the effect of protracted disinflation despite high rates and a cool business cycle.
India remained the most dynamic major economy: in Q4 of fiscal year 2024/25, real GDP grew by 7.4% y/y, and by 6.5% for the year as a whole; inflation in June came close to ≈2% y/y (according to MoSPI publications), creating room for cautious policy easing going forward.
Brazil added +1.4% q/q (2.9% y/y) in Q1 on the back of strong agriculture; the IPCA in June was 5.35% y/y (+0.24% m/m), remaining above the central bank’s target and forcing monetary authorities to act cautiously.
“Global growth in the first half of 2025 is a mosaic of different speeds. The US is balancing between tight rates and the desire not to ”overbrake” demand, Europe is slowly emerging from stagnation, China is holding the bar thanks to exports, but domestic demand has not yet recovered. For Ukraine, this means one simple thing: we should not expect external demand to pull us out of the doldrums on its own. We need targeted industrial programs, support for high value-added exports, and a transparent import substitution policy where it makes economic sense. Then, even amid global turbulence, we will be able to turn record reserves and international support into a long investment cycle and a new economic structure,” Maxim Urakhin concluded.
At the end of June 2025, Ukraine’s economy remains in a state of controlled equilibrium: inflation is slowing, reserves are at historic levels, and monetary policy is predictable. At the same time, a deep trade deficit, high debt burden, and weak investment flows remain key risks that require immediate responses — from tax and customs policy to incentives for localizing production and restoring critical infrastructure.
Head of the Economic Monitoring project, Candidate of Economic Sciences Maksim Urakin
Source: https://interfax.com.ua/news/projects/1113998.html
Spanish Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares announced that a new batch of electric generators will be sent in the coming days through the Spanish Agency for International Development Cooperation (AECID) to help Ukraine get through the winter amid a wave of Russian attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure.
“On the eve of a new winter, it is necessary to ensure the stability and operability of the power system. The Spanish Cooperation Agency has planned 70 new generators, which will be sent to Ukraine in the coming days to provide electricity and heating this winter, which is predicted to be harsh,” the minister said during a media briefing ahead of the EU Foreign Affairs Council meeting in Luxembourg on Monday.
Albares noted that he will meet with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiga on Monday to personally convey information about support for Ukrainians
