Generation distribution in power system of Ukraine in 2022
Source: Open4Business.com.ua and experts.news
Benchmark oil prices are falling on Tuesday morning after hitting three-week lows the day before.
The price of December futures for Brent on the London ICE Futures exchange at 8:17 a.m. is $89.74 per barrel, which is $0.97 (1.07%) lower than at the close of the previous session. On Monday, these contracts fell by $1.49 (1.6%) to $90.71 per barrel.
Quotes for November futures for WTI in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) by this time decreased by $0.74 (0.83%) to $88.08 per barrel. At the end of the previous session, they fell by $1.97 (2.2%) to $88.82 per barrel.
The main negative factor for commodity markets on Monday was the strengthening of the dollar on the news that the US government had managed to avoid a shutdown, as well as fears of new Federal Reserve rate hikes. The ICE index, which measures the dollar against six major world currencies, is at its highest level since last November.
“The decline in oil prices has very little to do with fundamentals and is driven by rising US government bond yields and a stronger dollar,” wrote Warren Patterson of ING. – “I think that the quotes have the potential for further growth.
Oil grew strongly in the summer and is still supported by concerns about fuel supply on the global market, said Colin Czeszynski, senior market strategist at SIA Wealth Management. “At the same time, from a technical point of view, oil is overbought, and it seems to be entering a correction phase,” he added.
Investors’ attention is now focused on the meeting of the OPEC+ Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), which will be held on Wednesday.
The Business Confidence Index (BCI), calculated by the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) on a scale from zero to 100, rose to 50.1 points in September from 49.3 in August, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) said on Monday.
“In September, businesses positively assessed their current performance after two months of restrained expectations. A gradual recovery in production rates, the establishment of new supply routes, a decrease in the growth rate of raw material and energy costs, improved inflation and exchange rate expectations, and strong domestic demand led to an improvement in respondents’ expectations,” the regulator said.
In particular, in September, assessments of the economic situation slightly improved in industry, services and trade, respectively from 48.8 to 50 points, from 47.3 to 47.9 points and from 52.5 to 53.3 points.
Respondents in the industrial sector improved their assessment of their economic performance, given the gradual recovery in production, new ways of supplying products, and slowing inflation.
Enterprises expect prices for their own products to rise further (from 58.8 points in August to 61.4 points in September), while lower expectations of rising prices for raw materials and supplies (from 32.3 points to 30.9 points).
According to the central bank, respondents maintained positive expectations about the volume of manufactured products and new orders for them, as well as inventories of raw materials.
It is indicated that respondents expect new export orders for products at the level of the previous month. At the same time, negative assessments of work in progress have eased somewhat, while assessments of finished goods stocks have deteriorated.
According to the NBU, trade enterprises remain the most optimistic among other sectors: for the seventh month in a row, they have been assessing their performance positively. In particular, this is due to strong consumer sentiment, sufficient supply of goods, and slowing inflation. The sectoral index in September was 53.3, up from 52.5 in August.
It is emphasized that traders are set to further increase their turnover and the volume of goods purchased for sale. At the same time, against the backdrop of stronger forecasts of higher purchase prices, respondents softened their estimates of the growth in the value of goods purchased for sale, while maintaining positive estimates of inventories of goods for sale and weakening estimates of a decline in trade margins.
As for service companies, their assessments softened somewhat, while this is the only sector that retained negative assessments of its business activity, given the destruction of transport logistics, higher fuel prices, and weak demand. The sectoral index for services rose to 47.9 last month from 47.3 in August.
According to the central bank, unlike the previous two months, respondents expected a slight increase in the volume of services provided and mitigated negative expectations of new orders. However, after three months of positive expectations, they predict a decrease in the volume of services in progress.
According to the NBU, construction companies maintained positive assessments of their performance for the fifth consecutive month due to a revival in demand for mortgage loans under preferential government programs, budget financing for construction and road rehabilitation, and seasonal factors. However, the sectoral index still fell to 50.6 points in August from 51 points in August.
It is noted that builders were somewhat more confident about the growth in construction volumes and were set to increase new orders, as well as purchases of raw materials and supplies. Also, respondents’ expectations for growth in the procurement and cost of contractor services have significantly increased, while negative assessments of their availability have softened.
Overall, most respondents expect their own products and services to rise in price amid rising purchase prices.
As for employment, the NBU assesses it as “heterogeneous.”
For the third month in a row, trade companies have been expecting an increase in staff (51.4 points), while construction managers, like last month, do not expect any changes (50 points). At the same time, respondents in industry and services still expect a reduction in the total number of employees (48.2 and 47.2 points, respectively).
The NBU clarified that the monthly survey of enterprises was conducted from September 4 to 22. It involved 502 companies. Among the surveyed enterprises, 44.4% are industrial companies, 28.9% are service companies, 20.7% are trade companies, and 5% are construction companies; 32.3% of respondents are large enterprises, 29.3% are medium-sized enterprises, and 38.4% are small enterprises.
At the same time, 31.9% of the surveyed enterprises carry out export and import operations, 9.6% – only export operations, 15.5% – only import operations, 43% – do not carry out external economic operations.
Starting from October 3, banks that have been able to buy and sell foreign currency at the request of their clients only within the official exchange rate of the National Bank of Ukraine +/- 1% may set it independently without this restriction.
The relevant provision is enshrined in the NBU Board Resolution No. 121 of October 2 on the transition to a regime of managed exchange rate flexibility, which amended the “military” NBU Board Resolution No. 18 of February 24, 2022.
“You read our amendments to Resolution No. 18 correctly: that is, there is no peg plus +1% now,” NBU Deputy Governor Yuriy Heletiy confirmed at a briefing on Monday.
Ukraine has received from Poland the first Leopard tanks repaired at the Bumar-Labenda plant, the Polish Arms Group (PGZ) has announced.
“While others are making statements about the future, we are acting in coordination with the Ukrainian side. The first Leopard tanks, which have undergone special modernization in Bumar-Labendy, were received by the Ukrainian side. Work is underway on the next vehicles,” the company said in a post on social network X (formerly Twitter).
“This clearly demonstrates that our priority is to provide real assistance to the Ukrainian military on the front line,” the statement said.
PGZ also noted that it is constantly expanding its cooperation in the supply of ammunition, spare parts and maintenance of equipment.
Electricity exports from Ukraine to Europe increased 555 times in September, while imports decreased almost five times, according to the website of the network of transmission system operators of Continental Europe ENTSO-E.
According to the calculations of Energoreforma, according to these data, exports were carried out to Slovakia and Moldova in the amount of 66.7 thousand MWh and 44.36 thousand MWh, respectively, amounting to a total of 111.06 MWh.
As reported, last month, due to a significant capacity deficit with a significant demand for electricity due to the heat wave, Ukraine was unable to export, as a result of which exports took place only on August 27, in the amount of 0.2 thousand MWh to Slovakia and 0.004 MWh to Moldova.
At the same time, electricity imports in September, also from Slovakia and Moldova, amounted to 23.82 thousand MWh, compared to 115.6 thousand MWh in August. Slovakia supplied 18.38 thousand MWh, and Moldova – 5.44 thousand MWh.
As a result, electricity exports exceeded imports by 4.6 times.
As a rule, exports were carried out at night and during the day (reduced consumption at night, increased production of electricity from renewable energy sources during the day), and imports mainly helped to cover the growth in consumption in the late afternoon.
As reported, in August, Ukrenergo was forced to use emergency assistance from Romania and Poland to cover demand, the volume of which was unprecedented – it was used for a third of the month, and its total volume amounted to almost 19 thousand MWh (in July it was only 1.2 thousand MWh).
In July, electricity exports amounted to 0.804 thousand MWh, imports – 73.298 thousand MWh, in June – 5.98 thousand MWh and 39.5 thousand MWh, respectively.
