The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and OTP Leasing have agreed on a new EUR40 million credit line, the company’s CEO Andriy Pavlushin said after a meeting with Ukrainian banks and financial companies organized by the EBRD in London.
“We agreed today on a new EUR40 million line, and we will sign it soon. There will be cashbacks for companies owned by veterans or war victims of up to 20% of the financing amount,” he wrote on his Facebook profile.
Pavlushyn noted that since the beginning of this year, OTP Leasing has financed $125 million worth of products, which, according to him, is 50% more than in 2023. The CEO emphasized that instruments from the EBRD significantly contribute to this result.
OTP Leasing provides financial leasing and fleet management services to corporate clients and micro, small and medium-sized enterprises across the country. The ultimate owner of the company is OTP Bank Plc. (Hungary).
Danish skylight manufacturer Velux has expanded production of accessories for remote window control in Ukraine at its partner plant Jabil in Uzhhorod, the company’s press service reports.
From now on, three innovative products from the company’s international portfolio are being produced in Ukraine, designed for the integrated management of electric roof windows, curtains and shutters in a residential building. As reported, in 2023, Jabil’s production facilities launched exclusive production of the Velux Touch remote control. This year, mass production of the KMG 100 K electric motor and the KUX 110 power management system was launched, both of which are designed to automate Velux roof windows with manual control.
“Remotely controlled roof windows are becoming increasingly popular in Ukraine. As a result, the demand for accessories for upgrading manually operated windows to electrically operated ones has increased significantly. Such devices provide comprehensive control over all skylights, curtains and shutters in the house, and greatly simplify their operation,” commented Yuriy Tkachenko, CEO of VELUX Ukraine.
In particular, such equipment allows, for example, to set up ventilation programs on a schedule or activate automatic window closing thanks to a rain sensor.
By 2023, Velux products were manufactured in 11 countries. Last year, Ukraine became the 12th country where the Danish company established mass production of products for its international portfolio.
“The Velux Touch product manufactured in Ukraine meets the highest standards of quality and reliability, is sold in more than 60 countries and is very popular in the markets of Europe and Asia. Therefore, Velux Group management decided to launch the production of two more innovative devices for automated control of skylights in Ukraine, so that even more customers who use our products could see the Made in Ukraine mark on them as evidence of guaranteed quality and further development of our country’s economy,” said Tkachenko.
He said that this year, the line of GLL/GLU windows with remote opening capability, which are equipped with electrical equipment made in Ukraine, is very popular in the world. “Needless to say, such an enterprise is important for the country right now, in terms of employment, tax revenues and economic development,” Tkachenko added.
In the face of the full-scale invasion, Velux Group not only remains on the Ukrainian market, but also actively participates in Ukraine’s recovery programs. One of the priorities of Velux Group is to develop environmental solutions that can transform the construction industry and help create modern living spaces – affordable and healthy homes with a low carbon footprint.
Velux also supports the Children’s Living Places eco-housing project for children from foster families, initiated by SOS Children’s Villages Denmark, which involves the construction of three clusters of buildings in three communities.
“The Velux team is ready to join other projects to restore Ukraine’s housing stock and offer turnkey solutions that meet new concepts for creating modern housing,” said Tkachenko.
According to Opendatabot, Velux Ukraine LLC was established in 2001. Its founder is Velux A/S (Denmark).
Velux Group is a manufacturer of roof windows and sun protection accessories with offices in 40 countries and production facilities in 12 countries. Velux representative office in Ukraine was opened in 2001 and production started in 2023. The company’s products are sold in 70 countries.
In August this year, the cargo turnover of Ukrainian ports amounted to 7 million tons, which is more than twice as much as in 2023, when it was recorded at 3.3 million tons, the Ukrainian Sea Ports Authority (USPA) reported on its Facebook page.
“The leaders of cargo turnover are grain and ore cargo – 4 million tons (against 2.3 million tons in 2023) and 1.2 million tons (against 195 thousand tons in 2023), respectively,” the agency said.
At the same time, the cargo turnover through the Ukrainian sea corridor in August amounted to 5.9 mln tons, of which 3.6 mln tons were the products of Ukrainian farmers.
In total, in January-August 2024, Ukrainian ports handled almost 67 million tons of cargo, compared to 37.7 million tons in the same period a year earlier. The USPA summarized that 7769 vessels were handled compared to 9732 last year.
In 2025, Ukraine will plant 8000 hectares of industrial hemp, said Igor Vishtak, Director of the Agrarian Development Department of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food, during a visit to farms in Khmelnytsky and Vinnytsia regions.
He emphasized that the government is making efforts to revive hemp growing in the country. Law No. 3528-IX on state regulation of hemp plants has already been adopted, which will allow to increase the area under cultivation next year.
“Growing hemp for industrial purposes became possible after the adoption of the law on medical cannabis. Industrial hemp is also a variety of value-added products – food, light, pulp and paper, and other industries,” the press service of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food quoted him as saying.
Vishtak noted that with the adoption of the law, industrial hemp has become interesting for Ukrainian agricultural producers. Changes in the legislation allow agricultural enterprises to rediscover a niche sector of agricultural production – industrial hemp farming, as hemp for industrial purposes is becoming an almost common crop, which will no longer require licenses or quotas.
The Ministry of Agrarian Policy pointed out that hemp cultivation contributes to soil aeration and cleansing of heavy metals such as zinc, copper, and lead. In addition, thanks to its scientific base, Ukraine has the best varieties of industrial hemp and can become a leading country in breeding. The Institute of Bast Crops of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine and the Institute of Agriculture of the North-East of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine are two of the leading scientific institutions that own hemp varieties. In addition, 11 other private agricultural enterprises are engaged in the cultivation of hemp seed material.
The purpose of this review is to analyze the current situation in the Ukrainian foreign exchange market and forecast the hryvnia exchange rate against key currencies. The current conditions, key factors of influence, and possible scenarios are considered.
Analysis of the current situation
In recent months, the national currency of Ukraine has experienced a gradual controlled devaluation. We see such actions as an attempt to achieve several strategic goals to support the economy and the budget:
Ø The appreciation of the hryvnia to realistic values – this ensures the gradual adaptation of the economy to the new macroeconomic and exchange rate reality without shocks.
Ø Agricultural export season: controlled and gradual devaluation helps to increase the income of farmers, who will receive more hryvnia for their exported products.
Ø Budget support: controlled gradual devaluation becomes a tool for balancing the budget by increasing revenues from customs duties, excise taxes, and other taxes denominated in hard currency. This makes it possible to avoid a direct increase in the tax burden on business or even partially replace it in the face of the government’s controversial tax reform package.
Ø As we predicted in our previous review, the hryvnia exchange rate against the dollar has found a temporary equilibrium at a conditional plateau around UAH 41/$, where it has been fluctuating slightly since the second decade of August.
In addition, our expectation of stabilization of foreign exchange reserves came true due to the inflow of support funds from partners and allies: according to the NBU, foreign exchange reserves increased by USD 5 billion after a four-month decline. Ukraine received the following funds:
Ø USD 4.553 billion from the EU under the Ukraine Facility program;
Ø USD 3.899 billion – a grant from the US through the World Bank.
Significant amounts of international assistance exceeded the NBU’s foreign currency sales. These funds will support exchange rate stability and play an important psychological role in maintaining the stability of the foreign exchange market.
Thus, we do not yet see any objective prerequisites for the destabilization of the dollar against the hryvnia. The cash foreign currency market is also showing signs of saturation: in 7 months of 2024, according to the NBU, banks brought a record amount of cash to Ukraine – the equivalent of USD 8.8 billion, where the US dollar dominates.
The saturation of the market with the supply of dollar cash should help to keep the exchange rate stable, except in a subjective situation – if banks want to speed up the sale of currency and try to create artificial demand.
This month, we will highlight the short-term outlook for the euro against the hryvnia, as the EU currency has its own specific drivers. The continued rally of the euro amid the stabilization of the US dollar against the hryvnia is dictated by external reasons beyond Ukraine’s control: the US monetary authorities are signaling further monetary easing and lower interest rates, which is weakening the dollar’s position in international markets. At the same time, the European Central Bank has not yet given any clear signals on interest rates, which supports the euro’s appreciation against the dollar. Therefore, in the short term, we can expect the euro to continue its upward trend against the hryvnia until clear signals from the ECB appear, which will bring certainty to the further behavior of the EUR/USD pair on international markets.
Forecast.
Short-term – for the coming months:
Given the current situation and provided that the current conditions persist, we maintain our forecast for a relatively stable hryvnia exchange rate with minor fluctuations and its temporary retention at a conditional plateau in the chart near the values of UAH 41-41.5 per dollar.
Ø In the event of a controlled deterioration of key factors or a strengthening of the exchange rate component as a tool for filling the budget, the hryvnia will drift smoothly to UAH 42-43.50 per dollar.
Long-term forecast (for a year and beyond)
As a forecast beacon, the parameters of the budget declaration, which is realistic given the current situation and a restrained forecast of its development, remain relevant, where the average annual hryvnia exchange rate is projected at
Ø 2025: 45 UAH per dollar;
Ø 2026: 46.5 UAH per dollar;
Ø 2027: UAH 46.4 per dollar.
Important factors of exchange rate stability are still factors outside the economy: the situation at the frontline and the intensity of mobilization, the severity and intensity of infrastructure and energy challenges, and the scale and regularity of international support. These non-economic factors play the role of fundamental factors in the stability of the national currency.
Recommendations and conclusions:
We maintain our buy recommendation on currencies for medium- and long-term savings and investments with a horizon of a year or more.
We do not recommend buying the US dollar for short-term purposes, given the suspension of the “exchange rate rally” with temporary stabilization and/or the likelihood of an exchange rate adjustment towards strengthening the national currency against the US dollar. In contrast, the euro remains attractive for short-term investments to obtain an exchange rate premium due to its continued smooth growth.
Financial market operators are betting that the “exchange rate rally” against both the dollar and the euro willstop – the average buying rate for both currencies by financial market operators is closer to the official exchange rate of the National Bank of Ukraine, while the selling rate is significantly higher – a clear indication that financial operators want to earn a hype premium by selling currency without buying it too expensive. A noticeable widening of the spread between the official and market buy/sell rates will be a clear indication that financial operators are betting on the start of a new protracted phase of the national currency devaluation.
Therefore, we recommend that you be careful when conducting foreign exchange transactions and not be influenced by information noise.
The banking system as a whole and the NBU have sufficient tools to maintain exchange rate stability. A noticeable shift in the situation may be caused by changes in exchange rate policy or events on international markets.
Among other reasons, the broader factors outlined in the previous forecasts remain relevant, including
Ø administrative actions aimed at further devaluation of the national currency;
Ø currency exchange regulations, which may become a driver of the shift to cash;
Ø uncertainty in mobilization and employment;
Ø uncertainty about the consequences of the revision of tax rates and fees for businesses of various sizes;
Ø infrastructure and energy challenges expected in the autumn-winter season, which may become powerful drivers of a deteriorating business climate and a new wave of seasonal emigration.
Despite Russia’s war against it, Ukraine intends to export 60-65% of its harvest in the 2024-2025 marketing year (MY), Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food Vitaliy Koval said during a national telethon.
“The main issue facing the government is to ensure the country’s food security. At the same time, we plan that Ukraine will export about 43 million tons (of agricultural products – IF-U) to foreign markets,” he said.
Koval specified that wheat exports are expected to reach 16.2 million tons, and corn – about 25 million tons. Ukrainian processors will be provided with wheat, and the surplus is already being exported.
“Today, the agricultural sector accounts for about 60% of the country’s total export revenue. It is very important that foreign markets receive Ukrainian products. And not only agricultural raw materials, but also value-added products and processed products. It is very important that these percentages grow. It is also important that the amount of harvested crops that we can export does not remain in the country and that exports grow,” the Minister of Agrarian Policy summarized.
