Gold prices are rising on Tuesday amid a decline in the dollar and yields on U.S. government bonds on expectations of the publication of data on U.S. inflation.
Quotes of August gold contracts on the New York Comex exchange by 18:52 Q2 rose by 0.27% to $1936.2 per troy ounce.
New U.S. inflation data will be released on Wednesday. Analysts polled by Trading Economics on average forecast consumer price growth in the world’s largest economy slowed to 3.1% last month from 4% in May.
Core inflation (the CPI Core index, which excludes fuel and food prices), meanwhile, stood at 5.3% in May and is forecast to fall to 5% in June.
Ahead of the statistical release, the dollar index is down 0.1% and the yield on 10-year US Treasuries is down 1.5 basis points to 3.986%.
“We see government bond yields falling earlier in the week as investors wait for inflation to fall in June,” said StoneX analyst Fawad Razaqzada. – This has slightly boosted the comparative attractiveness of gold versus bonds.”
Ukraine’s key macroeconomic indicators have stabilized somewhat, but continue to testify to the significant role of international structures in keeping the Ukrainian economy in working order.
The National Bank estimates that Ukraine’s GDP decline in the first quarter of 2023 year-on-year has slowed significantly to 13.5% from 31.4% and 30.6% in the fourth and third quarters of 2022, respectively. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko gave his forecast for Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2023 to 3.2%, while the government previously estimated GDP growth at 1% and the National Bank recently improved it from 0.3% to 2%. Investment firm Dragon Capital also forecast real GDP growth of 3% in 2023, while it previously expected it to fall by 0.5%. The World Bank has worsened its forecast for Ukraine’s gross domestic product growth for this year to 2% from 3.3%, which it predicted in January 2023.
Recall that Ukraine’s GDP in the first quarter of 2023 fell by 10.5% compared to the first quarter of 2022 after falling by 31.4% in the fourth quarter, 30.6% in the third quarter, 36.9% in the second quarter and 14.9% in the first quarter of last year.
At the same time, the Ukrainian authorities have set a super ambitious goal to increase GDP to $1 trillion over 10 years, First Deputy Prime Minister and Economy Minister Yulia Sviridenko said at the Ukraine Recovery Conference in London.
Maxim Urakin, founder of the Kiev-based think tank Club of Experts, drew attention to the significant decline in Ukraine’s foreign trade balance. “The negative balance of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-March 2023, according to the State Statistics Committee, increased 26 (twenty-six) times compared to the same period of 2022 – to $5.394 billion from $0.208 billion. Exports of goods from Ukraine for this period compared to the first quarter of 22 decreased by 26.1% – to $10.306 billion, and imports increased by 10.9%, to $15.699 billion,” – said Maxim Urakin.
Military expenditures of the state budget continue to grow. Budget expenditures to support the AFU in the form of purchase of military equipment, weapons, ammunition, defense products, personal protective equipment in May increased to UAH 43.4 billion in February (15.6% of all expenditures) from UAH 42.5 billion (18.5%) in April and UAH 34.4 billion (15.3%) in March.
Ukraine in January-March 2023 realized industrial products (goods, services) in the amount of UAH 755.755 billion, which is 14.2% less than in January-March 2022 (UAH 880.419 billion), including outside the country – in the amount of UAH 137.783 billion.
The total state debt of Ukraine in April 2023 increased by 3.6% and reached a new historical maximum: in dollar terms – by $4.37 billion, to $124.28 billion, in hryvnia terms – by UAH 159.9 billion, to UAH 4 trillion 544.9 billion.
At the same time, due to international aid, Ukraine’s international reserves reached a record high in June, amounting to almost $39bn, which is a record high in the history of independent Ukraine, the head of the National Bank of Ukraine, Andriy Pyshnyy, has said. The head of the National Bank specified that in June the government’s accounts received: $1.6 billion from the EU, $1.2 billion from the USA, $69.1 million from the World Bank and $15.0 million from the government of Finland.
Inflation in Ukraine in May 2023 slightly accelerated to 0.5% in May from 0.2% in April, and on an annualized basis in May-2023 it fell to 15.3% from 17.9% in April, 21.3% in March, 24.9% in February and 26.6% in December.
Retail turnover of Ukraine in January-March 2023 compared to the same period of 2022 decreased by 9.1% and amounted to 390.1 billion UAH. According to the statistical Department, at the same time in March of this year recorded an increase in retail turnover to March last year by 35.5%, while in February the decline was 22.6%. Recall that the retail turnover of Ukraine in 2022 compared to 2021 decreased by 21.4% and amounted to 1.398 trillion UAH.
On July 10, the National Bank of Ukraine has annulled the license of Financial Company Rialto LLC (Kiev) to provide financial services, namely, to lend money, including on financial credit terms.
As reported on the website of the regulator, following the results of an unscheduled inspection on the protection of the rights of consumers of financial services found violation of the financial company of the requirements of current legislation, in particular, the laws of Ukraine “On financial services and state regulation of financial services markets”, “On consumer credit”, as well as a number of regulations of the National Bank of Ukraine.
Rialto FC was registered in June 2020. The authorized capital is UAH 6 mln.
North Atlantic Treaty Organization allies are not inviting Ukraine to membership talks, but have promised to do so when they agree to it and allow conditions.
This is the content of the final communiqué of the meeting of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization heads of state and government to be approved, several informed sources told the Interfax-Ukraine news agency.
They claim that the wording will sound as follows: “We will issue an invitation when the allies agree and conditions are met.”
The sources also say that the allies have agreed to exclude the Membership Action Plan from the conditions for Ukraine. This wording can be written as follows: “Ukraine’s path to full Euro-Atlantic integration has gone beyond the need for a Membership Action Plan.”
At the same time, the sources do not rule out that the text could be changed.
An inclusive driving school has started operating in the village of Vita-Poshtova on the basis of the National Academy of Internal Affairs (Educational and Research Institute No. 1), the Kyiv City State Administration reports.
According to a statement on the KCSA website, “at the driving school, people with disabilities can receive services to study theory and gain practical driving skills; pass theoretical and practical exams, and then get a driver’s license.”
If necessary, people can also retrain or acquire the skills to drive a manual car.
In addition, both individual and mixed group training is possible, and it is also possible to learn theory online. The driving school’s curricula are adapted to the needs of people with disabilities, and training and exams will be held in inclusive facilities.
In total, 11 weeks are allocated for training, including 4 weeks of theory and 7 weeks of practice. Up to 30 people study in one group.
To enroll in a driving school, you must pass a medical and social commission and receive a certificate of the cause and group of disability, as well as undergo a medical examination and receive a certificate of fitness to drive.
Next, you need to choose a driving school and submit the required package of documents to the educational institution. This includes an application addressed to the director of the driving school, a copy of the passport of a citizen of Ukraine or an identity document confirming his or her citizenship or special status, a copy of one of the documents provided for by the Tax Code of Ukraine with data on the registration number of the taxpayer’s account card or a notice of refusal to accept it, a medical certificate and a 3.5 x 4.5 cm color photograph.
Driving schools for people with disabilities operate in Kyiv, Khmelnytskyi, Kirovohrad, Lviv and Dnipro regions.
JSC “Ukrzaliznytsia” (UZ) in the first half of 2023 transported 70.5 million tons of cargo, which is 14.5 million tons or 12.4% less compared to the same period of 2022, according to the UZ report on the results of freight work for the first half of the year.
According to statistics, 28.2 million tons of cargo, or 40% of all volumes, were transported in export traffic in the first half of 2023, which is less by 5.2 million tons or 15.4% compared to the first half of 2022.
It is noted that the volume of transportation of iron and manganese ore fell by 44.7%, or 7.003 million tons – to 8.672 million tons.
“Russia’s blockade of sea ports led to a significant restriction of exports. Cargo flows were redirected mainly through Ukraine’s western international railroad crossings to EU countries. Thus, 90% of ore exports are directed through western border crossings,” the UZ report states.
Exports of ferrous metals fell in the first half of the year by 37.8%, or 1.410 million tons – to 2.322 million tons, and although in March-May it significantly exceeded last year’s figures, in June this gap narrowed due to the destruction of the Kakhovska HPP and reduced production of enterprises in Nikopol, Zaporizhzhya and Kryvorizhzhya districts.
Also, by the end of the first half of the year, the export by rail of minstroymaterials decreased – by 56.9%, or 924.3 thousand tons – to 701 thousand tons.
At the same time, in January-June this year, the volume of grain transportation increased – by 44.5% or 4.027 million tons – up to 13.072 million tons and vegetable oil – by 22.5% or 135 thousand tons – up to 736 thousand tons.
In addition, in the first half of 2023, the volume of cement transportation increased – by 33.4% or 130.7 thousand tons – up to 522.4 thousand tons.
As reported, in June this year UZ transported 12.4 mln tons of cargo, which is 31.9% more compared to June 2022 and 7.9% more compared to May 2023, including export shipments of 4 mln tons (+24.3% and +5.6%, respectively).
Transportation of grain cargoes in June 2023 increased to 2 million tons (+48.4% vs. June 2022), construction materials – to 3.1 million tons (+87%), hard coal – to 2.3 million tons ( +16.3%), iron and manganese ore – to 2 million tons. (2,8%).
For comparison, in May this year, Ukrzaliznytsia transported grain cargo 1.83 million tons, construction materials – 2.5 million tons, hard coal – up to 2.22 million tons, iron and manganese ore – 1.96 million tons.
As of today, UZ has 19 railway border crossings with EU countries and Moldova, of which 14 main ones are functioning and provide freight transportation in the direction of: Poland (4 crossings), Romania (2 crossings), Slovakia (2 crossings), Hungary (2 crossings) and Moldova (4 crossings).
