The official exchange rate of the national currency may weaken to the level of 40.00-40.50 UAH/$1 in the summer, said Nikita Mishakov, head of interbank operations at PrivatBank, while OTP Bank predicts that the hryvnia will not fall below 40.20 UAH/$1 in the summer.
“But I do not think that the National Bank, having substantially replenished foreign exchange reserves, will allow a rapid devaluation. Although the NBU plans to devalue the hryvnia gradually. As far as I remember, they promised to devalue up to 10% this year,” he said in a comment to Interfax-Ukraine.
Mishakov believes that the package of currency restrictions easing announced by the NBU on May 3 will put some pressure on the national currency starting from the end of last week or this week.
“My personal opinion is that I see the exchange rate in June at around 40.00 UAH/$1, 40.50 UAH/$1, maybe. But I think that over time, as the harvest season begins, with exports threatened, I think it will adjust to 39.50 UAH/$1,” the head of the interbank operations department shared his expectations.
Mishakov noted that, in his opinion, the exchange rate corridor will be within the current level, close to 40.00 UAH/$1, with fluctuations in both directions of about 50 kopecks.
“Liberalization will result in the need to increase the NBU’s foreign exchange interventions to maintain the stability of the hryvnia exchange rate, but this will not cause additional threats to macro-financial stability,” said Inna Provotar, head of management accounting and business analysis at OTP Bank.
“Exchange rate fluctuations are possible, but within acceptable limits. In summer, we do not expect the official exchange rate to exceed 40.2 UAH/$1. At the same time, there is a high probability that the rate will rise to 40.7 UAH/$1 by the end of the year. That is, to the level that the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine has included in the budget for 2024,” she said.
Sergiy Kolodiy, Chief Macroeconomic Analysis Officer at Raiffeisen Bank, noted that the package of currency restrictions easing will increase the structural deficit in the interbank market in the short term, but at the same time improve the business environment and solve problems with servicing external loans. The announced currency liberalization measures may increase the inflow of foreign currency in the medium term, the banker believes.
However, unlike his colleagues who expect the national currency to devalue, Kolodiy admits that the foreign exchange market will see a seasonal strengthening of the hryvnia due to the central bank’s wide scope for intervention, given the rather high level of international reserves.
“The NBU has enough reserves to cover the structural deficit and will use them for this purpose. Therefore, we will not be surprised by the slow seasonal revaluation of the hryvnia as a clear signal to the market about the ability to maintain currency stability,” he emphasized.
The banker also said that, according to Raiffeisen Bank’s estimates, currency liberalization was included in the regulator’s January macroeconomic forecast, which corresponded to an additional $5.6 billion of currency outflow.
“The estimate of $5.5 billion recently announced by the regulator’s representatives is very close to our calculations,” he summarized.
“Currency easing is aimed at revitalizing and stimulating business, which should ultimately lead to an increase in business activity and, consequently, GDP. The dynamics of the exchange rate will continue to depend on the assistance of international partners, the situation at the front, business activity and public sentiment,” informed Serhii Kucheriavyi, Director of Liquidity and Securities Control Department of Kredobank.
All the bankers emphasized that the level of international reserves is sufficient for a more “soft” monetary policy and do not see any significant risks to exchange rate stability.
As reported, on May 3, the NBU announced the largest package of currency restrictions easing for businesses since the beginning of the full-scale war, which includes the abolition of all currency restrictions on imports of works and services, the ability of businesses to repatriate “new” dividends, and the ability to transfer funds abroad under leasing and rent.
In addition, new steps in currency liberalization include easing restrictions on the repayment of new foreign loans and interest on “old” foreign loans, as well as easing restrictions on the transfer of foreign currency from representative offices to their parent companies.
On May 7, the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine repealed Resolution No. 153, which restricted payments for imports of goods and services, and on May 8, the official hryvnia exchange rate began to gradually decline.
In total, it weakened by 37 kopeks over the past week, including a 17 kopek drop to 39.7206 UAH/$1 last Friday. In the cash market, the dollar also rose in price last week: by about 12 kopecks to 39.95 UAH/$1, including 6 kopecks on Friday.
The National Bank’s net sales of dollars increased to $533.4 million from $507.8 million last week.
In April, Ukraine’s international reserves decreased by 3.1%, or $1.4 billion, to $42 billion 399.5 million. On April 25, the NBU raised its forecast for reserves at the end of this year to $43.4 billion from $40.4 billion and to $44.3 billion from $42.1 billion at the end of next year.
The first racket of Ukraine Elina Svitolina defeated the “neutral” Anna Kalinska in two sets at the WTA 1000 ground tennis tournament in Rome, reports Suspilne. Sport” reports.
This is the tenth time in her career that Elina Svitolina has played in a tournament in Rome. Thanks to her place among the top seeds, the first seed of Ukraine began her performances in Italy with a crushing victory in the second round: she defeated Italian Sara Errani in two sets (6-0, 6-2).
In the third round, the Ukrainian met with a “neutral” tennis player Anna Kalynska. Reportedly, the athletes had never met on the court before the 1/16 finals of the Italian Open. Now, Svitolina has one victory in personal meetings.
Elina Svitolina (Ukraine, 19) – Anna Kalinska (26) 2: 0 (6: 3, 6: 3)
Svitolina closed the first set with a 6-3 victory, in the second set the score was level until the fourth game, but in the fifth game Kalinska managed to win two break points, but eventually Svitolina took the lead and eventually won 6-3.
The match between Svitolina and Kalinska lasted 1:14 hours. During the game, the Ukrainian made one double fault. Svitolina also served a forehand once.
In the next round, Ukraine’s top-ranked player will meet the world’s second-ranked player, the “neutral” Arina Sabayenko.
Elina Svitolina won the championship twice in Rome: in 2017-2018. The last time the Ukrainian played in Rome was in 2023, when she was stopped in the first round by another Ukrainian, Lesia Tsurenko (4:6, 3:6).
Svitolina is the last representative of Ukraine at the WTA 1000 in Rome. Earlier, Diana Yastremska lost to Arina Sabayenko, and Angelina Kalinina was defeated by the eighth-ranked player in the world, Greek Maria Sakkari.
The occupancy of Ukrainian hotels increased in the first quarter of 2024 in Kyiv and Odesa, and decreased in Lviv, Olga Mishchenko, head of the Hotel Matrix project, told Interfax-Ukraine.
“The occupancy of Ukrainian hotels in the first quarter of 2024 increased compared to the same period last year in almost all regions where the study is underway. In Kyiv, the growth is up to 35.44% (+64%), in Bukovel – to 53.91% (by 33%), in Odesa – to 21.85% (+5%). We note a decrease in the occupancy rate of Lviv hotels – down to 40.15% (- 20%),” she said.
According to Hotel Matrix, the average daily rate (ADR) for the period under review in Bukovel amounted to UAH 5909 (-3%), in Lviv – UAH 2865 (+2%), in Kyiv – UAH 2201 (-8%), in Odesa – UAH 1827 (+6%).
RevPAR (revenue per available room per day) in the first quarter of 2014 in Bukovel amounted to UAH 3185.8 (+29%), in Lviv – UAH 1150.2 (-20%), in Kyiv – UAH 779.65 (+52%), in Odesa – UAH 339.3 (+1%).
“We see that Lviv has a negative trend in terms of occupancy and revenue per available room. At the same time, there is a bright increase in RevPAR in Kyiv hotels (+52%),” Mishchenko highlighted the main trends of the quarter.
Hotel Matrix is a web-based hotel analytics product developed by experts from Poland and Ukraine. It was launched in May 2020. To date, more than 200 hotels in Ukraine, Poland and Kazakhstan have been connected to Hotel Matrix.
Samantha Power, Administrator of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), has announced the delivery of seven autotransformers to Ukraine, which will help provide electricity to millions of people.
“Following Russia’s brutal attacks on Ukraine’s power grid, Ukraine needs critical assistance to keep electricity flowing to millions of Ukrainians across the country. USAID recently completed the delivery of seven autotransformers, a step toward expanding their energy capacity,” Power wrote on social media site X.
In January-April this year, Ukrainian companies increased exports of ferrous scrap by 54.9% year-on-year to 87,414 thousand tons from 56,449 thousand tons.
According to statistics released by the State Customs Service on Friday, 26.153 thousand tons were exported in April, 20.907 thousand tons in March, 23.194 thousand tons in February and 17.160 thousand tons in January.
In monetary terms, scrap metal exports increased by 68.8% to $28.155 million from $16.684 million.
In January-April, Ukraine exported scrap metal to Poland (83.81%), Greece (12.39%) and Germany (3.65%).
In the first four months of the year, the country imported 339 tons of scrap metal for $187 thousand. Imports were carried out from Slovakia (43.01% in monetary terms), Turkey (38.17%) and Poland (8.06%), while in January-April 2023, 176 tons of scrap metal were imported for $64 thousand (49.23% from Slovakia, 21.54% from Moldova and 15.38% from the Netherlands).
As reported, in 2023, the scrap collecting enterprise of Ukraine increased the export of scrap metal from the country by 3.4 times compared to the previous year – up to 182.485 thousand tons from 53.557 thousand tons. In monetary terms, exports increased 2.74 times to $52.723 million from $19.271 million.
Earlier, Ukrmetallurgprom President Oleksandr Kalenkov stated in a column on the Interfax-Ukraine website that scrap metal is exported through the European Union, which has a preferential export duty of EUR3 per ton, and from there the raw materials are redirected to real customers. He noted that exporting raw materials directly to customers would cost EUR180 in export duties, and the Ukrainian budget has already lost UAH 350 million.
The head of Ukrmetallurgprom called for a temporary ban on the export of ferrous scrap to provide steelmakers with strategically important raw materials in the face of the ongoing war. He also clarified that a ton of scrap metal processed into steel brings in 10 times more to the budget than the EU export duty, which is about $300 per ton.
In 2022, Ukraine reduced exports of ferrous scrap by 11.5 times compared to the previous year, to 53,557 thousand tons, and in monetary terms, it decreased by 12.4 times, to $19.271 million.
Net sale of dollars by the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) increased this week to $533.4m from $507.8m a week earlier, according to the regulator’s data.
According to them, the central bank sold $533.6m on the interbank market and bought back $0.15m.
The official hryvnia exchange rate weakened by 37 kopecks during the week, in particular, on Friday the national currency exchange rate fell by 17 kopecks to UAH 39.7206/$$. – to 39.7206 UAH/$1.
In the cash market, the dollar also rose in price during the week: by about 12 cents to UAH 39.95/$1. – up to UAH 39.95/$1, including on Friday – by 6 kopecks.
As evidenced by the data, which the NBU managed to publish for this period, from Monday to Wednesday, the negative balance between the volume of currency purchases and sales by the population increased from $30.2 million to $56.9 million.
Last Friday, May 3, the National Bank announced the largest package of easing of currency restrictions for businesses since the beginning of the full-scale war, which provides for the abolition of all currency restrictions on imports of works and services, provides the ability of businesses to repatriate “new” dividends, provides an opportunity to transfer funds abroad on leasing and rent.
In addition, the new steps of currency liberalization provide for the easing of restrictions in terms of repayment of new foreign loans and interest on “old” foreign loans, as well as easing restrictions for the transfer of foreign currency from representative offices in favor of their parent companies.
As reported, the NBU increased its net foreign exchange interventions on the interbank market in April by 27.7% to $2.283bn, compared to $1.370bn in the same period last year.
On April 24, Ukraine received the second tranche of transitional financing in the amount of EUR1.5 billion (UAH 63.32 billion in hryvnia equivalent) under the European Union’s Ukraine Facility instrument, and the country also received UAH 2.7 billion in grants from international partners last month.
Ukraine’s international reserves in April decreased by 3.1%, or $1.4 billion – to $42 billion 399.5 million. On April 25, the NBU raised their forecast for the end of this year to $43.4 billion from $40.4 billion and to $44.3 billion from $42.1 billion – at the end of next year.
