The article presents key macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine and the global economy for the first half of 2024. The analysis is based on official data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the NBU, the IMF, the World Bank, and the UN, on the basis of which Maksim Urakin, PhD in Economics, founder of the Experts Club Information and Analytical Center, presented an analysis of macroeconomic trends in Ukraine and the world. The key aspects of the report include the dynamics of gross domestic product (GDP), inflation, unemployment, foreign trade and public debt of Ukraine, as well as global macroeconomic trends.
Macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine
According to the State Statistics Service of Ukraine and the National Bank of Ukraine, Ukraine’s real GDP growth rate slowed to 3.5% in May 2024, compared to 4.3% in April and 4.8% in March. This decline is mainly due to a drop in electricity generation, which affected the industrial sector and led to a decrease in production in the machine building and metallurgy sectors. At the same time, exports and demand in the construction industry supported positive economic growth.
“In June 2024, Ukraine’s public debt increased by UAH 200 billion, and inflation accelerated to 2.2%, which is generally in line with the NBU’s target range,” Maksim Urakin emphasized.
Global economy
The World Bank forecasts global economic growth of 2.6% in 2024, up from the previous forecast of 2.4%. In 2025-2026, the growth rate is expected to further increase to 2.7%. For developing countries, the average annual GDP growth in 2024-2025 is projected at 4%, slightly lower than in 2023.
“In low-income countries, growth will accelerate to 5% in 2024, compared to 3.8% in 2023. For developed countries, growth is expected to reach 1.5% in 2024 and 1.7% in 2025,” said Maksim Urakin, founder of Experts Club.
Maksim Urakin summarized that despite the decline in food and energy prices, core inflation will remain high in the medium and long term.
Ukraine’s foreign trade
In January-June 2024, Ukraine’s foreign trade balance in goods deteriorated by 24.4% compared to the same period in 2023, reaching a negative value of $13.606 billion. Merchandise exports increased by 0.3% to $19.589 billion, while imports increased by 9% to $33.205 billion. The main export items include agricultural products, metals, and machinery, while the main imports are energy and chemicals.
Conclusion.
Ukraine’s economy is showing signs of recovery, despite significant challenges from internal and external factors. The global economy, in turn, is also facing uncertainty, but maintains positive growth rates. It is important to monitor changes in macroeconomic indicators to assess the prospects for further development and adaptation to new economic conditions.
Thus, this article provides a holistic view of the current economic situation in Ukraine and the world, based on the latest statistics and forecasts.
Trends in the global and Ukrainian economies can be tracked via the Experts Club information and analytical channel – https://www.youtube.com/@ExpertsClub
Source: https://expertsclub.eu/osnovni-ekonomichni-indykatory-ukrayiny-ta-svitu-vid-experts-club/
S&P has upgraded Serbia’s long-term sovereign rating from BB+ to BBB-, which removes its foreign currency bonds from junk status and puts them in the investment grade category, Bloomberg reports citing a statement from the agency.
The rating outlook is stable. Thus, the rating company now assesses Serbia’s creditworthiness on a par with Hungary and Romania and one notch below Mexico. The country’s speculative rating remains at Fitch Ratings and Moody’s Ratings.
“The rating upgrade reflects Serbia’s increasing resilience to shocks thanks to effective macroeconomic management, which we expect to continue in the coming years,” S&P said in a statement.
It emphasizes that robust domestic demand, accumulated reserves, and prudent fiscal and monetary policies, supported by cooperation with the IMF, allow Serbia to withstand economic difficulties and future potential shocks.
S&P changed its outlook on Serbia’s credit rating to positive in April 2024, and Fitch and Moody’s followed suit in August, raising the possibility that the country will soon receive an investment grade rating from the three global rating agencies, according to Bloomberg. Serbia became the first country in the Western Balkans to receive an investment grade rating and the only EU candidate country with such a rating. Yields on Serbia’s 2034 dollar-denominated bonds fell 70 basis points from their June peak to 5.63% as of Friday, October 4.
Since June, Serbia’s bonds have posted a 7% return, outperforming the Bloomberg EM Hard Currency Index, which was up 5.8%. Some investors, such as Morgan Stanley Investment Management, have long believed that Serbia deserves a rating upgrade, the agency notes.
The death toll from the devastating floods in Bosnia and Herzegovina, which are being called the worst in decades, has already reached 19. On the morning of October 4, it was reported that heavy rains in Bosnia on Friday night had flooded several cities in the central and southern parts of the country.
After 16 people died in the municipality of Jablunice, rescuers also found the bodies of three people in the city of Fojnice, where the bad weather destroyed many houses and outbuildings.
Against this backdrop, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic agreed to provide all necessary assistance to Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Vucic previously noted that Serbia could send rescue helicopters and boats, as well as provide financial assistance.
And the Croatian prime minister said that his government is in constant contact with the head of the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Borjana Krishto, and is ready to provide “all the necessary assistance in eliminating the consequences of the flood.”
The EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell, also confirmed the readiness to help. He noted that Bosnia could benefit from the EU’s Civil Protection Mechanism, which it joined in 2022.
Fourteen EU countries, as well as Norway, Switzerland and Liechtenstein, have signed an appeal calling on the EU executive to propose new rules to strengthen return policies, Politico reports.
In their letter to the European Commission, 17 European countries ask for new rules that will allow governments to detain illegal migrants if they pose a threat to national security, force migrants to cooperate with authorities, and ensure that all EU countries use the same data management software.
The letter to the Commission states that migrants who do not have the right to stay in the EU “must be brought to justice.”
It is noted that Norway, Switzerland, and Liechtenstein have also signed the appeal, although they are not members of the EU, they are members of the Schengen area.
The publication notes that the push comes amid a right-wing and anti-immigration shift in many EU countries.
Unemployment in the eurozone was 6.4% in August, unchanged from the July level, according to the European Union Statistical Office. This is the lowest figure since the calculations were made. The data coincided with the consensus forecast of analysts cited by Trading Economics.
In August 2023, unemployment in the euro area was at 6.6%. The number of unemployed people in the region decreased by 95 thousand in the month before last compared to July, to 10.925 million. Youth unemployment (population under 25) fell to 14.1% from 14.2% a month earlier.
The lowest unemployment rate among the largest eurozone countries was recorded in Germany (3.5%, the same as in July), and the highest in Spain (11.3%, down 0.1 percentage point). In France, the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 7.5% in August, while in Italy it dropped to 6.2% from 6.4%.
Overall, in the European Union, unemployment fell to 5.9% last month from 6% in July.
Ukraine national futsal team defeated France in the match for the third place – 7:1. The goals for Ukraine were scored by Igor Chernyavsky, Mykhailo Zvarich, Yevhen Zhuk and Daniil Abakshin, follows from the broadcast of the match.
For the Ukrainian team – this is the first medals at the world championship.
Argentina and Brazil, the teams Ukraine lost to at the tournament, will play in the final.
