Passenger traffic across the Ukrainian border in the third week of December, from December 13 to 19, jumped by 26.3% to 562,000 as Christmas approached, and this weekend the increase reached 50%, causing queues at the border with Poland, Hungary, and Slovakia, according to data from the State Border Service.
According to them, the number of border crossings for departure increased to 279,000 from 226,000 a week earlier, while the increase for entry was even more significant – to 283,000 from 219,000.
This Saturday, December 20, the number of border crossings for exit and entry was also similar – 62,000 and 63,000, compared to 41,000 and 39,000, respectively, on the previous Saturday.
The number of vehicles that passed through checkpoints this week also jumped to 140,000 from 123,000 a week earlier, while the flow of vehicles carrying humanitarian cargo remained at around 520.
According to the State Border Service, as of 12:00 on Sunday, there were no queues at the border with Romania and Poland, while at the borders with three other countries, there were queues at all checkpoints.
At the border with Poland, most passenger cars and buses were waiting to cross at the Krakovets checkpoint – 150 and 20, respectively. The queue at the Ustyluh checkpoint consisted of 125 cars and 15 buses, at the Rava-Ruska checkpoint – 110 cars, Smilnytsia checkpoint – 85 cars and 6 buses, Shehyni checkpoint – 80 cars and 19 buses, Hrushev checkpoint – 80 cars and 9 buses, Nizhankovychi checkpoint – 80 cars and 1 bus, Ugrinov checkpoint – 75 cars and 9 buses, Yagodin checkpoint – 30 buses (passage of passenger cars is temporarily suspended).
Forty passenger cars and two buses were waiting to cross the border with Slovakia at the Uzhgorod checkpoint, and 30 cars were waiting at the Maly Berezny checkpoint.
At the border with Hungary, the longest queues were at the Luzhanka and Dzvinovo checkpoints, with 50 and 45 cars, respectively. There were 30 cars at the Kosino and Vilok checkpoints and 5 at the Tisa checkpoint.
The total number of border crossings this week is slightly lower than last year. At that time, 294,000 people left Ukraine and 290,000 entered the country over the same 7 days, although the flow of cars was lower – 134,000.
Last year, a 28.1% jump in passenger traffic was recorded this week, and the following week it increased by another 12.5%.
As reported, from May 10, 2022, the outflow of refugees from Ukraine, which began with the start of the war, was replaced by an influx that continued until September 23, 2022, and amounted to 409,000 people. However, since the end of September, possibly influenced by news of mobilization in Russia and “pseudo-referendums” in the occupied territories, followed by massive shelling of energy infrastructure, the number of people leaving has exceeded the number of people entering. In total, from the end of September 2022 to the first anniversary of the full-scale war, it reached 223,000 people.
During the second year of full-scale war, the number of border crossings to leave Ukraine, according to the State Border Service, exceeded the number of crossings to enter by 25,000, during the third year by 187,000, and since the beginning of the fourth year by 203,000.
As Sergei Sobolev, then Deputy Minister of Economy, noted in early March 2023, the return of every 100,000 Ukrainians home results in a 0.5% increase in GDP.
In its July inflation report, the National Bank worsened its migration forecast: while in April it expected a net inflow of 0.2 million people to Ukraine in 2026, it now forecasts a net outflow of 0.2 million, which corresponds to the estimate of the net outflow this year. “Net return will only begin in 2027 (about 0.1 million people, compared to 0.5 million in the previous forecast),” the NBU added and confirmed this forecast at the end of October. In absolute terms, the National Bank estimates the number of migrants currently remaining abroad at about 5.8 million.
According to updated UNHCR data, the number of Ukrainian refugees in Europe as of December 11, 2025, was estimated at 5.311 million (5.331 million as of November 14), and 5.860 million (5.850 million) worldwide.
In Ukraine itself, according to the latest UN data for July this year, there are 3.340 million internally displaced persons (IDPs), compared to 3.757 million in April.
