The escalation of the war around Iran has already gone beyond a regional conflict and has become a factor in global inflation. On March 9, Brent rose above $119 per barrel intraday, its highest level since 2022, and IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva warned that a sustained 10% increase in oil prices could add about 0.4 percentage points to global inflation. The scale of the risk is also explained by logistics: in 2024, about 20 million barrels of oil per day passed through the Strait of Hormuz, which is approximately 20% of global liquid hydrocarbon consumption.
For Ukraine, the fastest channel for transmitting such a shock is the fuel market. After losing a significant part of its own refining capacity, the country relies on imports: in 2024, Ukraine imported about 1.2 million tons of gasoline, and in January-September 2025, imports of petroleum products reached 5.67 million tons. Even before the current price surge, the market remained sensitive to logistics and external conditions: The NBU noted an acceleration in the growth of prices for gasoline, diesel, and liquefied gas due to supply disruptions, and Reuters reported that in January 2026, gasoline imports grew by 70% year-on-year due to a shortage of domestic production. This makes gasoline, diesel, and autogas the most likely first group of goods to react to a protracted oil shock.
“If the conflict around Iran drags on, Ukraine will feel it almost immediately through rising fuel costs, and then through higher logistics, import, and food prices. For our economy, this is not only an external shock, but also additional inflationary pressure on the domestic market,” says Maksim Urakin, founder of the Experts Club analytical center and candidate of economic sciences.
The second vulnerable group is imported products with long logistics and a high share of transport costs. In 2025, Ukraine increased its imports of agri-food products by 13% to $9.12 billion, with the EU’s share exceeding 53.9%. The largest items in the procurement structure were fruits, berries, and nuts ($1 billion), fish and seafood ($999 million), alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages ($870 million), cocoa products ($640 million), coffee, tea, and spices ($471 million), and vegetables ($467 million). It is these categories — from bananas and citrus fruits to coffee, chocolate, and seafood — that are most sensitive to increases in freight, fuel, refrigerated logistics, and dollar-denominated commodity prices.
“Consumers will feel the price increases most noticeably where there is a large share of imports and transportation costs. First and foremost, this concerns fuel, coffee, chocolate, fish, seafood, and fruit, and a little later, goods whose prices include more expensive fertilizers, gas, and packaging,” Urakin noted.
The third risk area is fertilizers and then Ukrainian-produced food. There has already been an increase in prices not only for oil and gas, but also for sugar, fertilizers, and soybeans following the escalation around Iran. At the same time, European gas prices jumped by 35-40% in early March, and the EU convened a coordination group on gas supplies. This is doubly sensitive for Ukraine: the NBU previously estimated the need for gas imports in 2026 at $1.1 billion after $2.9 billion in 2025, and fertilizer imports in 2025 rose to 3.285 million tons.
According to GIZ estimates, Ukraine’s dependence on nitrogen fertilizer imports has already exceeded 60%. This means that if oil and gas prices remain high for a long time, in a few months the pressure may shift to the cost of grain, greenhouse vegetables, milk, meat, and other food products.
Products linked to petrochemicals and metals deserve special mention. Oil is a basic raw material for a wide range of chemical products, and Reuters has already noted that aluminum prices have risen to a four-year high amid the current conflict. This increases the risk of price increases for plastic packaging, household chemicals, paints, certain types of cosmetics, tires, PVC materials, and some construction products. The same applies to bitumen, a direct petroleum product, whose imports to Ukraine, according to industry estimates, will remain significant in 2026.
The currency factor could be an additional amplifier. Against the backdrop of the war, investors are turning to the dollar as a safe haven asset. This is important for Ukraine because oil, gas, coffee, cocoa, fertilizers, and a significant portion of other imports are denominated in dollars, and the EU remains the country’s largest trading partner, accounting for more than 50% of trade in goods. Even without a physical deficit, this increases the risk of more expensive imports in hryvnia.
However, not all goods will react equally quickly. Basic products, where Ukraine remains a major producer — primarily wheat, corn, and sunflower oil — are less dependent on immediate imports, and the wheat and corn harvest in 2025 turned out to be better than early expectations.
Therefore, in the short term, fuel, imported fruits and seafood, coffee and chocolate, fertilizers, chemicals, and some construction materials are likely to see the sharpest price increases. But if the energy shock drags on, the rise in logistics costs will almost inevitably begin to seep into the prices of Ukrainian-made goods.
Source: https://expertsclub.eu/vijna-v-irani-pidnime-cziny-na-palyvo-ta-import-analiz-tovariv/
February looks like a month of “macro + flows,” where the direction will be determined not so much by individual crypto news as by a combination of factors: expectations regarding interest rates, risk appetite, ETF behavior, and derivatives volatility.
Fixygen offers several scenarios for how the situation could unfold.
Base scenario (most likely)
Sideways market with increased volatility: Bitcoin is trying to recover after January’s sell-off, but is facing selling pressure as it approaches strong levels (including around $90,000). In this scenario, the “swings” will continue until there is a clear signal regarding liquidity — either through macro data or a sustained reversal of ETF flows.
Positive scenario
The market will get a “window” for growth if two conditions are met simultaneously:
sustainable net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs return (this reduces dependence on derivative demand);
macro policy becomes less tight, real yields fall, the dollar weakens, and the risk premium declines.
Then crypto could quickly recover from its late January slump, and altcoins could temporarily revive following BTC.
Negative scenario
If outflows from ETFs continue and macro expectations remain hawkish, pressure may return: the January episode showed how quickly the market unpacks when volatility and liquidations increase. In this case, February will be marked by the defense of support levels and investors’ flight to cash/safe-haven assets.
Markers we recommend watching in February:
1) daily statistics on spot Bitcoin ETF flows (inflows/outflows);
2) the state of derivatives: open interest, funding rates, liquidation “flashes”;
3) the tone of the macro agenda and the reaction of yields/the dollar to key data for the month;
4) the stability of BTC after the sharp movements at the end of January (the market is testing whether “demand on dips” is ready to be systemic).
Source: https://www.fixygen.ua/news/20260131/prognozi-na-lyutiy-dlya-rinku-kriptovalyut-vid-fixygen.html
In 2025, as part of the medical guarantee program (MGP), the Sinevo laboratory performed 3.7 million tests, the total cost of which exceeded UAH 900 million at laboratory prices, and received UAH 162 million from the National Health Service of Ukraine (NSZU) for them.
“The difference of more than UAH 700 million was financed by Sinevo at its own expense and became the company’s contribution to the scaling of the MGP,” the laboratory explained.
According to its press release, the total number of tests performed last year under this program increased by 25% compared to 2024. More than 500,000 Ukrainians took tests under the PMG at Sinevo last year, which is half more than in 2024.
“Among the factors contributing to the increase in cooperation are the demand for Sinevo’s services under the PMG among the population, as well as the expansion of the network of branches where free tests are provided by the National Health Service,” the laboratory specified.
It noted that, in particular, during the fourth quarter of 2025, residents of cities in the Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Poltava, Sumy, and Kharkiv regions had the opportunity to take tests free of charge under the PMG.
In total, Sinevo provided tests under the PMG in more than 200 branches in 35 cities of Ukraine.
Sinevo specified that the company is currently preparing for new contracting.
According to the results of 2025, Ukraine’s national currency, the hryvnia, remained relatively stable overall, despite pressure from the war, high budget expenditures, and volatility in foreign markets, according to the Experts Club information and analytical center.
Throughout the year, the official hryvnia-to-dollar exchange rate showed moderate fluctuations within the established corridor, remaining under the control of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU). The cash and interbank markets saw short-term surges in demand for foreign currency, mainly during periods of peak budget payments and increased import activity, but these were quickly smoothed out by the regulator’s currency interventions.
According to market participants, the key factors supporting the hryvnia in 2025 were regular inflows of international financial assistance, the preservation of administrative measures of currency regulation, and the NBU’s policy of supporting the attractiveness of hryvnia instruments. International reserves also played a significant role, remaining at a level sufficient to cover short-term external obligations throughout the year.
At the same time, the hryvnia exchange rate continued to be pressured by the structural external trade deficit, high military and social spending, and uncertainty related to the duration of hostilities and the volume of future external support.
Quotations on the interbank currency market of Ukraine (UAH per USD, period from 01.01.2025 to 31.12.2025)
Maksym Urakin, founder of the Experts Club analytical center, notes that 2025 was a period of “managed stability” for the hryvnia.
“The hryvnia is ending the year without any sharp devaluation shocks, which, in the context of full-scale war and high budget dependence on external financing, can be considered a cautiously positive result. The key stabilizing factor remained the coordination of monetary and fiscal policy with the support of international partners,” he said.
According to him, maintaining control over the currency market has helped to avoid panic among the population and businesses, but in the medium term, the risks for the hryvnia remain high.
“The further dynamics of the exchange rate will directly depend on the volume of foreign aid, the situation on the front lines, and the pace of economic recovery,” Urakin stressed.
Inflationary processes in 2025 also remained one of the sensitive factors for the currency market. Rising consumer prices increased demand for currency from the population, but this effect was partially offset by monetary policy measures and the maintenance of capital movement restrictions.
The NBU has repeatedly emphasized that its exchange rate policy remains flexible and adaptive, and that the regulator’s priority is financial stability and inflation control, rather than achieving formal exchange rate targets.
Experts note that in 2026, the hryvnia’s dynamics will largely depend on the pace of economic recovery, the volume of international aid, and decisions on further currency liberalization.
The Experts Club analytical center analyzed Albania’s economy for the first 10 months of 2025 and presented its analysis and forecast. Based on the results of the first ten months of 2025, Albania continues to have one of the highest growth rates in Europe, with low inflation, stable currency reserves, and continued growth in tourism, but it faces a slowdown in industrial output and an expanding trade deficit.
According to IMF mission estimates and national statistics, Albania’s real GDP grew by approximately 3.4–3.6% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, which is comparable to 2024 figures and above the European average. The main drivers of growth remain the service sector, construction, and tourism: foreign tourists alone spent around €2.1 billion in the country in the first six months, which is 7–8% more than a year earlier.
International institutions expect the economy to grow by around 3.4-3.7% by the end of the year: after its autumn mission, the IMF raised its forecast to 3.5% for 2025, while the World Bank and the EBRD also expect growth of over 3%.
Inflation in the country remains low and close to the target level. According to the IMF and national statistics, annual consumer price inflation in 2025 is around 2–2.3%.
The labor market situation is improving moderately. The unemployment rate in the second quarter of 2025 fell to 8.5%, which is significantly below the historical average (around 14%).
Industry remains the most vulnerable sector. According to estimates by research centers and statistics, industrial production in Albania in the first quarter of 2025 declined by approximately 2.1% compared to the same period in 2024, while in the second quarter the decline slowed to around 0.5%. Manufacturing output in June 2025 was 0.9% lower than a year ago. This reflects the problems of traditional export industries, primarily textiles and clothing, which are under pressure due to the strengthening of the national currency and demographic outflow.
The external sector remains a weak spot in the macroeconomy. According to Albanian think tanks and INSTAT, the trade deficit in goods widened to about 25.3% of GDP in the first half of 2025, despite high tourism revenues. Remittances from migrants grew by about 5% to €1.2 billion, remaining an important source of external revenue, while foreign direct investment stabilized at around €1.1 billion over the same period.
At the same time, external stability appears comfortable. According to Trading Economics, Albania’s international reserves reached $7.3 billion in September 2025. In its final Article IV statement, the IMF explicitly notes “strong reserves, declining public debt, and one of the highest growth rates in Europe” as a basis for further reforms and deeper integration with the EU.
Fixygen analyzed the importance of regulators and their role in the crypto asset market. The cryptocurrency market is becoming increasingly sensitive to the rhetoric of central banks and the actions of financial regulators. Against the backdrop of expectations of interest rate changes and tighter rules for stablecoins and exchanges, the regulatory agenda is becoming one of the main drivers of price movements.
In its latest comments, the US Federal Reserve has allowed for the possibility of lowering the key rate in 2025, provided that inflation is under control. For cryptocurrencies, this is a signal of a potential increase in risk appetite and growth in liquidity in financial markets. The Fed’s policy easing traditionally supports interest in Bitcoin, Ether, and major altcoins, as investors are more actively engaging in strategies in the high-yield asset segment.
The European Central Bank maintains a more hawkish rhetoric, emphasizing the need to keep rates high to combat inflation, but at the same time notes a slowdown in the eurozone economy. This situation limits the inflow of European institutional capital into the crypto market in the short term, but reinforces expectations of future easing, which could be an additional stimulus for digital assets in the medium term.
The UK, through the Financial Conduct Authority, is tightening rules for stablecoins and crypto exchanges. The regulator is introducing stricter requirements for issuers’ reserves, transaction transparency, and investor protection. This increases the reliability of large stablecoins and infrastructure players, but may drive some smaller and less transparent projects out of the market.
Japan and South Korea are continuing their policy of tightening control over the crypto market with a focus on protecting retail investors. This includes stricter token listing rules, increased requirements for proven reserves, and exchange liability for fraudulent schemes. At the same time, these countries remain among the most technologically advanced markets, where digital finance and trading platforms are actively developing.
China officially maintains a tough stance on cryptocurrency trading, but at the same time promotes state blockchain solutions and the digital yuan. Through Hong Kong and special regimes for fintech companies, projects in the field of Web3 and tokenization are supported. Any easing or new pilot regimes in Hong Kong quickly affect regional liquidity and activity on Asian platforms.
Taken together, the statements and actions of regulators are creating a complex but gradually more structured environment for the cryptocurrency market. The easing of US monetary policy, stricter requirements for stablecoins and exchanges in Europe and Asia, and experimental regimes in China and Hong Kong will remain key factors for price dynamics and investor sentiment in the coming months.
