ANALYTICS – Ukraine open for business

Office real estate market of Kyiv and major Ukrainian cities is stabilizing by May 2026, but remains a tenant’s market — Experts Club

The office real estate market of Kyiv and Ukraine’s largest cities by May 2026 is demonstrating cautious stabilization after several years of shocks caused by the pandemic, the full-scale war, business relocation and the transition of some companies to a hybrid work format. The main demand factors remain building safety, completed renovation, autonomous infrastructure, the availability of shelters and the ability to move in quickly without significant capital expenditures.

Kyiv still remains the country’s largest office market. According to InVenture estimates, the total competitive supply of office real estate in Kyiv in 2025 decreased to 2.10 million sq. m, while the vacancy rate fell to 18.5%. The annual volume of gross take-up amounted to about 160 thousand sq. m, which is 26% more than a year earlier. At the same time, about 40% of take-up was related not to the organic expansion of business, but to the forced relocation of companies from damaged properties.

According to the Confederation of Builders of Ukraine, citing a CBRE Ukraine presentation, in the first half of 2025 demand for offices in Kyiv grew by 16%, to 82 thousand sq. m, while supply decreased by 3%, to 2.1 million sq. m, due to damage to office buildings. Vacancy in the market stood at about 21%, while 20% of demand was formed by tenants forced to relocate from properties affected by strikes.

“The office market in Kyiv can no longer be assessed according to pre-war logic. Today, a tenant chooses not simply an address or a building class, but the ability of a property to ensure business continuity. A shelter, generators, engineering systems, the safety of the district and the readiness of the premises for quick move-in have become parameters as important as the rental rate,” says the founder of the Experts Club analytical center, Candidate of Economic Sciences Maksym Urakin.

Rental rates in Kyiv remain relatively stable, but the market retains pronounced differentiation. According to InVenture, effective rates for class A offices without renovation at the end of 2025 amounted to $14-18 per sq. m per month excluding VAT and operating expenses, while for offices with renovation they amounted to $19-25 per sq. m. Asking rates for class A were in the range of $16-27 per sq. m, and for class B — $8-18 per sq. m.

In 2026, Kyiv’s office market remains a tenant’s market: property owners are forced to offer flexible terms, divide large areas into smaller blocks, invest in ready-made finishing and increase the autonomy of buildings. At the same time, the best class A and B+ properties with shelters, stable power supply and high-quality operation are holding demand better than outdated buildings and premises without renovation.

CBRE Ukraine senior office real estate consultant Anastasiia Kachan noted that in Kyiv the connection between the rate and the specific location of a business center has strengthened: now not only proximity to the metro matters, but also the location relative to infrastructure or military facilities. According to her, each business center can effectively operate outside the typical rules of its submarket or district.

IT companies remain the key tenants in Kyiv, but the structure of demand has become broader. Activity is also being formed by the defense sector, medical companies, professional services, consulting, logistics, representative offices of international organizations and part of the business related to reconstruction. According to CBU/CBRE Ukraine, in 2025 demand from the military sector increased noticeably, and the market began adapting offers to such needs.

“The office has ceased to be a place of daily presence for all employees, but it has not lost its significance for management, communication and corporate culture. Companies are optimizing space, but they are not abandoning a quality office. Therefore, demand is shifting from large monofunctional spaces to more flexible, safe and technological formats,” Experts Club notes.

Development activity remains minimal. In 2025, not a single new business center was commissioned in Kyiv, and by the end of 2026, according to InVenture’s estimate, about 27 thousand sq. m may enter the market, but commissioning deadlines may be postponed due to security risks, limited financing and a weak level of pre-leasing.

The situation in Ukraine’s major cities is heterogeneous. Lviv remains one of the most active regional office markets thanks to business relocation, the presence of the IT sector, proximity to the EU border and a relatively higher level of safety compared with the eastern and southern regions. According to Forbes Ukraine, by the end of 2025 vacancy in Lviv business centers decreased to 25%, while rental rates remained at $7-15 per sq. m.

In 2026, the Lviv market can be considered the second most important after Kyiv in terms of office demand, but its scale is limited. For tenants, ready-made premises, transport accessibility, energy resilience and the possibility of accommodating small or medium-sized teams are important. Large deals remain rare, while some companies prefer hybrid formats or coworking spaces.

Dnipro retains the role of an industrial, logistics and service center, but the city’s office market remains more local and less institutionalized than in Kyiv or Lviv. Demand is formed by regional companies, service businesses, retail operators, logistics, medical services and part of production structures. Due to proximity to an area of increased risks, tenants are especially sensitive to the safety, cost and autonomy of premises.

Odesa remains an important southern business center, but the city’s office market is strongly dependent on the overall security situation, port and logistics activity, tourism, trade and service business. The market includes both classic offices in central districts and premises in new multifunctional complexes. Demand in 2026 remains selective: tenants choose ready-made small premises, while large corporate deals are limited.

Kharkiv remains the most difficult of the large office markets due to the high level of security risks and proximity to the frontline zone. A significant part of business operates in a reduced, distributed or remote format. Nevertheless, the market has not stopped completely: demand remains for small offices, service premises, spaces for local business and properties with minimal operating costs.

“In regional cities, office real estate has ceased to be a single segment. Lviv operates as a market of relocation and IT, Dnipro as a market of industrial and service business, Odesa as a southern trade and logistics hub, and Kharkiv as a market of survival and adaptation. Therefore, comparing them only by rental rate is no longer correct: it is more important to look at safety, the tenant profile and the resilience of the local economy,” Maksym Urakin believes.

A common trend for all major cities has been the reassessment of office space. Companies more often choose smaller areas, completed renovation, flexible lease terms and buildings where the owner assumes part of the capital expenditures. Premises without renovation and large blocks in outdated properties remain less liquid, since tenants are not ready to invest in expensive fit-out amid high uncertainty.

Another factor is autonomy. After energy crises and attacks on infrastructure, offices with generators, stable internet, backup systems, shelters and high-quality management gained a competitive advantage. In some cases, such characteristics allow properties to maintain their rate even with overall high market vacancy.

According to InVenture’s assessment, the investment logic of office real estate in 2026 has become more cautious: before the pandemic and the war, the typical payback period for office premises was estimated at about 7-8 years, whereas in 2026, 10-12 years is already becoming the norm for most assets. At the same time, the best properties with a strong tenant and a successful location may show more attractive results, but this is rather an exception.

According to Experts Club’s forecast, by the end of 2026 Ukraine’s office market will move according to a scenario of slow recovery without a sharp increase in rates. Kyiv will retain the status of the main market, Lviv the status of the main regional center of demand, while Dnipro, Odesa and Kharkiv will develop mainly at the expense of local tenants and selective deals.

“The main risk for the market is not the absence of demand, but its quality. Demand exists, but it has become cautious, rational and demanding. Tenants want to pay not for meters, but for a guaranteed ability to work. This means that office real estate in Ukraine is gradually moving from a space model to a service and resilience model,” Experts Club summarizes.

Thus, by May 2026, the office real estate market of Kyiv and major Ukrainian cities remains in a transitional phase. It has already passed through the period of a shock decline, but has not yet returned to a full-fledged investment cycle. The most sought-after offices are becoming safe, ready-to-use, energy-resilient and flexible ones. Outdated properties without renovation, autonomy and a clear operational model will continue to lose competitiveness.

ANALYTICS, EXPERTS CLUB, REAL ESTATE, URAKIN

Ukraine’s construction market in monetary terms grew by almost a quarter in 2025 – analysis

Ukraine’s construction market in 2025, in monetary terms, increased by 24% compared to 2024 – to about UAH 248 billion (approximately EUR 5.3 billion), Rauta Director Andrii Ozeichuk reported in an overview of industry trends. At the same time, the market volume remains 34% below the 2021 level, when it was estimated at around EUR 8 billion.

According to the company’s assessment, the key segments of commercial investment in 2025 remained warehouse, industrial and retail real estate, while Kyiv, Lviv and Ivano-Frankivsk regions were named the most attractive for new construction. The segment of restoration and protection of critical infrastructure facilities is singled out separately – about 20% of the market.

Demand from businesses and households shifted toward energy independence: sales of generators rose by 130%, inverters and batteries by 50%, and solar power plants by 100%. In the commercial construction market, the agricultural buildings segment grew most dynamically (+48%), while demand for new housing overall remained at the 2024 level.

Price growth in the industry, according to Rauta, slowed: the cost of construction works and materials in 2025 increased by about 15% versus 24% a year earlier, and housing prices added 5–10%. At the same time, the labor shortage intensified – the lack of specialists is estimated at about 30%, which accelerated wage growth in construction to 25–30% in 2025; among the leaders in increases were monolithic structure workers (+50%), surveyors (+44%) and concrete workers (+38%).

The overview also notes deeper digitalization and regulatory updates: in 2025, the Unified State Electronic System in the Construction Sector (USESCS) became fully operational and its functionality was expanded, the urban planning cadastre geoportal and the “Transparent Construction” application started working, and amendments to the State Building Codes (DBN) on inclusivity enter into force on April 1, 2026.

ANALYTICS, CONSTRUCTION, OZEICHUK, RAUTA

Analysis of Ukraine’s Land Market

The number of large landowners among companies has decreased by one third since the opening of the land market in Ukraine. This was reported by the information and analytical center Experts Club with reference to a study conducted by OpenDataBot on the basis of data from the State Land Cadastre. Thus, 91 companies reduced their land banks to a level of less than 100 hectares over two years. 31% of all land plots owned by businesses are held by 10 landowning companies. Currently, 192 companies own land banks of more than 100 hectares.

There are currently 192 companies in Ukraine whose ownership includes more than 100 hectares of land. For comparison, at the time the land market opened in 2024, there were 283 such companies. During 2024, the list of large landowners decreased by 51 companies, and last year by another 40 companies.

Under conditions of uncertainty, destruction of infrastructure, the difficulty of demining territories, and problems with logistics, large companies are in no hurry to increase their land banks, which explains the reduction in the number of large landowners, Denis Marchuk explains.

“For big business, buying land is an investment for decades and billion-scale вложення. Under the current conditions of war, these funds are more often directed to supporting working capital, covering logistical and export risks, and restoring damaged infrastructure (elevators, warehouses, machinery, etc.). Currently, business chooses a mobility model—leasing instead of ownership. This makes it possible to respond faster to risks and change regions of presence. Land is bought mainly by those players who clearly plan long-term work and choose regions with lower risks, which explains the significant difference in prices between western and southern Ukraine,” — Denis Marchuk, Deputy Head of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council.

Almost one third of Ukrainian land owned by business is held by only 10 companies. In total, this top ten owns 18,344.98 hectares. However, even within the list of leaders there is a large gap: the largest landowning company, the agricultural firm Svitanok, has 10 times more land than the company Kuialnyk, which closes the top ten.

“For Ukraine, this is a historically normal structure of the agricultural sector, when 20–25% of the market falls to big business. The key problem is not concentration as such, but access of small and medium-sized businesses to financial resources. With the availability of affordable lending, they can compete fully, in particular through auctions of state land,” Denis Marchuk believes.

The leader in reducing its land bank was the company Zemletrade: from 3,161.47 hectares to 733.57 hectares, that is, almost four times. The company Agroforest reduced its areas by 8.6 times—from 1,803.09 hectares to 210.44 hectares. At the same time, 103 companies did not change the area of their land holdings at all.

38 companies from the list of large landowners are registered in Kyiv Oblast. Another 28 companies are registered in Kirovohrad Oblast, and the same number—directly in Kyiv. At the same time, in Ivano-Frankivsk, Rivne, and Chernivtsi oblasts, large landowners among companies are absent.

It is worth noting that some of the companies from the list of the largest landowners are registered in territories affected by the war. Thus, 16 companies are registered in temporarily occupied territories. 4 companies are registered in zones of active hostilities where state electronic information resources continue to function. And 14 companies are located in territories of possible hostilities.

67% of large landowners operate in the field of agriculture—129 companies. Another 33 companies, or 17%, are associated with real estate operations. In the field of public administration and defense, 11 companies operate; in wholesale trade—4; in the financial sector—3 companies. Among large landowners there are also two companies included in the OpenDataBot Index for 2025. These are Ukreximbank and Oschadbank, which own land plots with an area of more than 100 hectares.

ANALYTICS, LAND MARKET, UKRAINE

Temporary protection for Ukrainian citizens in different countries – analysis by Experts Club

The Moldovan government has extended temporary protection for displaced persons from Ukraine until March 1, 2027, with the country switching from automatic renewal to renewal upon application from 2026. Online applications must be submitted between February 1 and April 30, 2026, with a processing time of up to 90 days. The authorities also indicate that temporary protection may be revoked if the person is absent from Moldova for more than 45 days in total.

The Experts Club Information and Analytical Center also provides key terms for extension in other jurisdictions.

1) European Union. EU countries have agreed to extend the temporary protection mechanism for Ukrainians until March 4, 2027 (previously until March 4, 2026).

2) Switzerland. The Federal Council has extended the S protection status until at least March 4, 2027.

3) United Kingdom. The Ukraine Permission Extension (UPE) scheme is in effect, allowing individuals with valid Ukrainian migration status in the UK to apply for an additional 18 months of stay; the scheme is open from February 4, 2025.

4) United States. The US Department of Homeland Security has extended TPS status for Ukraine: the current extension period is valid until October 19, 2026 (an 18-month extension, counting from April 20, 2025).

5) Canada. For some Ukrainians and their family members who have applied for family reunification and are awaiting a decision on permanent status, measures have been introduced to support legal residence, including the possibility to apply for documents and permits from within Canada, with a deadline of March 31, 2027.

6) Norway. The authorities have decided to extend the collective protection scheme for another year; according to the UDI, the extension for most holders of such permits will take place automatically after the current term expires.

Experts Club notes that the differences between countries are most often related not to the principle of protection itself, but to administration: some countries apply automatic extension, while others apply extension upon application (as in Moldova from 2026), as well as requirements for actual presence and document renewal.

ANALYTICS, EXPERTS CLUB

Experts Club: Bulgaria has switched to the euro, but the expansion of the eurozone is slowing down

On January 1, 2026, Bulgaria officially switched to the euro and became the 21st country in the eurozone. For the Bulgarian economy, this step is largely institutional in nature: for many years, the lev was tightly pegged to the euro through the currency board, so the market did not expect a sharp change in the monetary regime. At the same time, the country will get a seat on the ECB’s governing bodies and deeper integration into the eurozone’s financial system, according to the Experts Club information and analytical center.

Maksym Urakin, founder of the Experts Club analytical center, believes that the effect of the transition will be determined by how quickly the authorities “knock down” inflation expectations among the population and businesses: “The euro itself does not make the economy richer overnight, but it reduces transaction costs and increases investor confidence. The key test in the first few months will be controlling price speculation and communicating clearly with consumers.”

The main domestic risk around which public debate in Bulgaria is centered is inflationary expectations and fears of price “rounding” in retail and services. Such fears traditionally accompany currency changes, even if the actual effect is usually limited in time and concentrated in the sector of daily household expenses.

After Bulgaria’s entry into the eurozone, six countries remain in the EU that do not use the euro: Sweden, Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Denmark, and Romania.

According to Experts Club estimates, the expansion of the eurozone will be slow in the coming years, as each of these countries has its own “stop factors” — from political constraints to failure to meet convergence criteria and budget deficit problems.

In Poland, for example, the government has publicly stated that the country is “not yet ready” for the euro and considers the zloty to be an instrument of macroeconomic flexibility that has helped it weather past shocks.

In the Czech Republic, President Petr Pavel has called for more active movement towards the euro as a factor in trade and decision-making, but there is no political consensus on the timing in the Czech Republic.

In Hungary, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, on the contrary, has stated several times that the country should not adopt the euro.

Sweden formally relies on the results of the 2003 referendum, when 55.9% of voters opposed the introduction of the euro.

Denmark, unlike the others, has a legally enshrined right not to introduce the euro (opt-out), confirmed by a referendum in 2000.

Experts Club notes that Romania is considered the next country after Bulgaria that is most likely to apply for the introduction of the euro. However, the actual timeline depends on inflation and the budget trajectory: the European Commission indicated in its convergence materials that Romania does not meet the conditions for adopting the euro, including the parameters of public finance sustainability and legal compatibility. The public guidelines in the Romanian discussion mention a target date of around 2029, but the timing may shift depending on economic indicators and fiscal adjustments.

ANALYTICS, CURRENCY, EURO, EXPERTS CLUB, URACIN

Analysis of global aluminum production – Experts Club video

The Experts Club analytical center has created a video analysis of global aluminum production in 1970-2024. Based on visual data from the video “Top 20 aluminum producers from 1970 to 2024” and confirmed statistical data for 2024, an overview of industry trends has been formulated.

Since the 1970s, primary aluminum production has gradually shifted from Europe and North America to Asia and the Middle East. At the dawn of the industry, Western Europe and the US accounted for a significant share of production. However, the following decades saw rapid capacity expansion in China, India, and the Middle East.

The video confirms that in 2024, the largest producer (China) controls about 60% of the world’s volume, while the top ten leaders account for more than 80% of production.

According to sources (Wikipedia, Visual Capitalist, NATO, World Population Review), aluminum production in the top ten countries in 2024 will look like this:

China — ~43 million tons.

India — ~4.2 million tons.

Russia — ~3.8 million tons.

Canada — ~3.3 million tons.

UAE — ~2.7 million tons.

Bahrain — ~1.6 million tons.

Australia — ~1.5 million tons.

Norway — ~1.3 million tons.

Brazil — ~1.1 million tons.

Malaysia — ~0.98 million tons.

Total global primary aluminum production in 2024 is estimated at approximately 72 million tons.

The world of aluminum production is becoming increasingly concentrated: China holds a dominant position, while other leading countries control a significant share. Countries with growing infrastructure, automotive, and construction sectors (India, Brazil, UAE) are showing dynamic growth.

The video is available on our YouTube channel –