Heavy rains in Brazil have degraded the quality of the new coffee crop and could lead to a shortage of high-quality Arabica beans on the global market, while futures for this variety have risen by approximately 35% since June, according to Bloomberg.
Brazil is the world’s largest producer of Arabica and accounts for about 45% of global production, so problems with harvest quality could affect the supply of premium coffee far beyond the country’s borders.
The main problem was extremely heavy rainfall during the harvest. In June, rains knocked a large number of ripe coffee cherries off the trees, after which they lay on waterlogged ground for several days, increasing the risk of fermentation, mold, and undesirable flavors.
According to Simao de Lima, president of the Expocacer cooperative—which unites more than 800 producers in the Cerrado Mineiro region in southeastern Brazil—the rains knocked down an average of about 20% of the coffee cherries, compared to the usual 5–7%.
Thus, this does not represent a 20% loss of Brazil’s entire harvest, but rather significant damage to the crop in one of the most important regions for the production of high-quality Arabica.
The situation was exacerbated by a second wave of rainfall in July. The rains fell on beans that had already been harvested and laid out to dry, forcing some producers to start the drying process all over again.
According to data from the meteorological company Vaisala, rainfall in certain areas of Brazil’s coffee belt in June and July reached 250–500% of the climate norm, and in some places, up to eight times more rain fell than usual.
Quality issues are already affecting the market. Arabica futures have risen by about 35% since June, offsetting a significant portion of the price decline since the beginning of the year.
In the physical market, high-quality Brazilian coffee is selling at a premium of up to 15 cents per pound compared to futures in New York.
The reduction in the volume of coffee meeting the delivery standards for Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) certified warehouses in the U.S. and Europe could prove particularly significant.
In a typical year, approximately 30–35% of the Cerrado Mineiro region’s production meets ICE requirements. Following this year’s rains, de Lima estimates that this share could drop to 10–15%. Meanwhile, coffee stocks in ICE-certified warehouses are already approaching their lowest levels of this century.
This could intensify competition among international roasters for high-quality beans. Bloomberg notes that Brazilian Arabica is used, in particular, by companies such as Starbucks, Lavazza, and Illy.
However, it is still too early to speak of a general coffee shortage. The U.S. Department of Agriculture expects that in the season beginning in October, global coffee supply will exceed consumption by approximately 10 million bags, which would be the largest surplus in six years. One of the main factors is expected to be record production in Brazil itself.
Therefore, the market’s main problem lies not so much in the total volume of coffee as in the availability of high-quality Arabica. Major producers can partially offset the shortage by adjusting the composition of their coffee blends and sourcing beans from other regions; however, for the premium segment, the situation could lead to further increases in purchasing and retail prices.
Weather remains an additional risk for the market. Reuters notes the intensification of the El Niño phenomenon, which in the 2026–2027 season could further increase volatility in the markets for coffee, cocoa, and other tropical agricultural commodities.
Coffee prices fell on Thursday amid expectations of a high harvest in Brazil, the world’s largest coffee supplier.
Arabica futures fell 0.2% to $3.0785 per pound at the end of trading in New York yesterday. This is the lowest price in five months.
Brazil’s new coffee crop, which will begin harvesting in a couple of months, could reach a record 75.8 million bags, Reuters reports, citing a forecast by EISA. One bag weighs 60 kg.
EISA expects the Arabica coffee harvest to amount to 48 million bags and the Robusta harvest to amount to 27.8 million bags.
Global coffee bean production in the 2025/2026 agricultural season will increase by 2.5% to reach a record 178.68 million bags (60 kg each), according to a report by the US Department of Agriculture.
At the same time, the arabica harvest will decrease by 1.7% to 97.02 million bags, while robusta will increase by 7.9% to 81.66 million bags.
Due to the increase in production, global carryover stocks will increase by 4.9% to 22.82 million bags by the end of the season.
“During the current week, coffee prices fell, in particular for Arabica fell to a 5.5-month low amid reports of improved weather conditions in the Brazilian coffee-growing states of São Paulo and Minas Gerais,” the report said.
As reported, at the end of last year and the beginning of this year, the world market saw a high growth in coffee prices. Thus, in February, coffee prices doubled in annual terms. In particular, this was due to the fact that traders were worried about the prospect of insufficient supplies from Brazil, which is the largest producer of Arabica coffee.
Arabica coffee is actively rising in price on Monday, reaching 13-year highs on weak forecasts for the Brazilian coffee harvest.
The price of arabica futures on the New York Stock Exchange ICE Futures rose by 1.2% to $3.0575 per pound.
Meanwhile, robusta futures jumped 4.1% to $5191 per ton.
The US Department of Agriculture has predicted that the coffee harvest in Brazil in the 2024/25 agricultural year will amount to 66.4 million standard 60-kilogram bags, while previously the harvest was expected to reach 69.9 million bags.
According to the Cemaden meteorological service, the current season in Brazil is the driest since 1981.
