Coffee prices fell on Thursday amid expectations of a high harvest in Brazil, the world’s largest coffee supplier.
Arabica futures fell 0.2% to $3.0785 per pound at the end of trading in New York yesterday. This is the lowest price in five months.
Brazil’s new coffee crop, which will begin harvesting in a couple of months, could reach a record 75.8 million bags, Reuters reports, citing a forecast by EISA. One bag weighs 60 kg.
EISA expects the Arabica coffee harvest to amount to 48 million bags and the Robusta harvest to amount to 27.8 million bags.
Global coffee bean production in the 2025/2026 agricultural season will increase by 2.5% to reach a record 178.68 million bags (60 kg each), according to a report by the US Department of Agriculture.
At the same time, the arabica harvest will decrease by 1.7% to 97.02 million bags, while robusta will increase by 7.9% to 81.66 million bags.
Due to the increase in production, global carryover stocks will increase by 4.9% to 22.82 million bags by the end of the season.
“During the current week, coffee prices fell, in particular for Arabica fell to a 5.5-month low amid reports of improved weather conditions in the Brazilian coffee-growing states of São Paulo and Minas Gerais,” the report said.
As reported, at the end of last year and the beginning of this year, the world market saw a high growth in coffee prices. Thus, in February, coffee prices doubled in annual terms. In particular, this was due to the fact that traders were worried about the prospect of insufficient supplies from Brazil, which is the largest producer of Arabica coffee.
Arabica coffee is actively rising in price on Monday, reaching 13-year highs on weak forecasts for the Brazilian coffee harvest.
The price of arabica futures on the New York Stock Exchange ICE Futures rose by 1.2% to $3.0575 per pound.
Meanwhile, robusta futures jumped 4.1% to $5191 per ton.
The US Department of Agriculture has predicted that the coffee harvest in Brazil in the 2024/25 agricultural year will amount to 66.4 million standard 60-kilogram bags, while previously the harvest was expected to reach 69.9 million bags.
According to the Cemaden meteorological service, the current season in Brazil is the driest since 1981.
