As of November 10, Ukrainian barley exports amounted to almost 75,000 tons, with grain prices rising, according to the analytical cooperative “Pusk,” created within the framework of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council (VAR).
“Barley is showing positive dynamics — prices rose by $2-4, or about 100-150 UAH per ton, over the week. On average, the conditional price for barley on the domestic market is about 10,600 UAH/ton. The market was supported by spot export sales, in particular to the Middle East and Algeria,” analysts explained.
At the same time, experts predict that the current growth may be short-term.
“Traders are now looking for deliveries until November 15-20 at the latest. After that, demand may disappear. That is, the $5-7 that the price per ton has gained may disappear just as quickly. The market is currently overheated locally, and barley remains a relatively expensive feed grain,” analysts noted.
Despite this, a slight increase is still possible in the coming days.
“By the end of this week or early next week, we may see further growth. Barley is likely to add $1-2 per ton, and accordingly may reach a conditional level of 10,800 UAH/ton on the domestic market,” Pusk concluded.
As of October 28, 2025, Ukrainian farmers had sown 5.349 million hectares of winter crops, which is 72% of the projected area. A year earlier, on October 22, 5.7 million hectares had been sown.
According to data on the website of the Ministry of Economy, Environment, and Agriculture, winter wheat crops increased to 3.858 million hectares (4.1 million hectares) over the week, barley — to 382,200 hectares (486,100 hectares), rye – to 63.2 thousand hectares (66 thousand hectares) .
“The leaders in grain crops are Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, and Kirovohrad regions. Poltava, Ternopil, and Chernihiv regions have already completed sowing,” the ministry said.
According to its data, as of October 21, rapeseed has been planted on an area of 1.05 million hectares (last year – 1.05 million hectares).
“The largest areas are in Vinnytsia, Odesa, and Khmelnytskyi regions. Currently, farmers in 14 regions have completed the sowing of winter rapeseed,” the report says.
The Ministry of Economy previously published forecast figures for the area sown with winter crops for the 2026 harvest. The ministry expects Ukrainian farmers to reduce the area sown with winter crops by 5.1% to 5.368 million hectares. At the same time, the area under winter wheat will be reduced by 4.4% to 4.778 million hectares, winter barley by 2.7% to 576,100 hectares, and winter rapeseed by 5.5% to 1.114 million hectares. At the same time, winter rye crops will increase by 7.6% to 69.3 thousand hectares.
As of September 29, Ukraine exported 235,000 tons of barley, despite the absence of supplies to China. Export rates and barley prices were supported by a tender in Turkey, according to the analytical cooperative “Pusk,” created within the framework of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council (VAR).
“Last week, Turkey’s state procurement company announced a tender for 255,000 tons of barley. This factor became the main driver of the market, ensuring a temporary increase in prices. Currently, the conditional prices for Ukrainian barley are $215–217 per ton, or 10,150–10,250 UAH/ton in ports. There is almost no support for prices on the domestic market, as barley remains more expensive than other feed crops,” analysts noted.
Experts believe that thanks to the Turkish tender, the market may maintain relatively high price levels for another week, with a possible increase of $1–2 per ton. However, after the tender activity ends, the price may return to the range of $210–214 per ton.
“In October, the barley market will traditionally be guided by wheat price dynamics. If the wheat market continues to show growth prospects, barley will also gradually rise in price,” Pusk concluded.
As of July 18, farmers harvested 7.226 million tons of early grains and legumes from an area of 2.355 million hectares, compared to 2.62 million tons from 919.9 thousand hectares a week earlier, the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food reported.
The ministry noted that 4.671 million tons of wheat have already been harvested (against 1.238 million tons a week earlier) from 1.504 million hectares (434.8 thousand hectares), 2.182 million tons of barley (1.153 million tons) from an area of 660.6 thousand hectares (364 thousand hectares), and 362.9 thousand tons of peas (225.1 thousand tons) from 170.8 thousand hectares (119.7 thousand hectares).
Odesa region is the leader in the harvest of grains and pulses, harvesting 2.02 mln tonnes from 722.1 thou hectares, Mykolaiv region – 1.173 mln tonnes from 488.7 thou hectares, Kirovohrad region – 963 thou tonnes from 238.6 thou hectares.
Rapeseed is harvested in 14 regions. The harvested area is 614.1 thsd tonnes (290.1 thsd tonnes) from 360.3 thsd ha (178.9 thsd ha).
As reported, as of July 19, 2024, agrarians of all regions of Ukraine harvested 15.7 mln tonnes of new crop from 4.4 mln ha, including 10.3 mln tonnes of wheat from 2.627 thou. hectares, barley – 3.1 mln tonnes from 824.2 thou hectares, peas – 319.3 thou tonnes from 154.7 thou hectares, rapeseed – 1.8 mln tonnes from 779.1 thou hectares, soybeans – 0.3 thou tonnes from 0.2 thou hectares, millet – 80 tonnes from 50 thou hectares.
wheat, barley
In Ukraine, the 2025 season is expected to see a significant decrease in gross barley harvest due to a reduction in acreage and the impact of weather risks, according to the analytical cooperative Pusk, established within the framework of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council.
“This year, we expect a barley harvest of about 5.1-5.3 million tons, which is 40% lower than the pre-war level. This means a significant reduction in supply at the start of the season, and the market is gradually beginning to reflect this in prices,” analysts said.
Experts pointed out that demand for Ukrainian barley is increasing, especially from China, which is returning to the market, and Southern European countries. This creates the conditions for stabilization and even an increase in export activity.
“China has already contracted about 500,000 tons of Ukrainian barley for July-August, and European importers, in particular Spain and Italy, are also stepping up purchases. Traders are seeking to secure their volumes in advance, given the limited prospects for domestic production,” analysts said.
They also see potential for price increases in the second half of the year, especially if weather risks are confirmed and the harvest turns out to be even lower than forecast.
“At the start of the season, the price model shows a level of $200-205/tonne on a CPT basis, but by December-January, we can expect to see $230-240/tonne. The market is already showing a willingness to pay more for limited supplies of high-quality barley,” Pusk predicts.
In September, Ukraine will cut barley exports by more than half due to a reduction in Chinese purchases of the crop, according to the analytical cooperative Pusk, created within the framework of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council (AAC).
“The Ukrainian barley market is undergoing significant changes that affect export prospects. As of August 19, exports of this grain reached 315 thsd tonnes, but preliminary forecasts for September are worrying. The volume of contracts for August is 600 thousand tons, while only 280 thousand tons are contracted for September. This is almost half as much,” analysts said.
In their opinion, the main reason for the future decline in exports is the decrease in demand from China, which previously provided more than half of Ukraine’s barley exports.
“The Chinese factor plays a significant role here, as China used to account for 55-56% of the geographical structure of Ukrainian barley exports. China is not expected to return to the Ukrainian grain as actively, but will probably switch to Australian barley, which will be delivered in December-January. Without Chinese contracts, monthly exports of Ukrainian barley will not exceed 300 thousand tons,” the experts explained.
They pointed out that the decline in demand from China is already beginning to be felt in the domestic market. A number of traders stop accepting barley, switching to other crops such as corn.
At the same time, they point to a significant correlation between barley and wheat markets and predict that the expected rise in wheat prices will also contribute to the growth of barley prices.
“The notional barley prices are still in the range of $170-172 per ton. We can expect that the wheat market will pull up the barley market. So, by the end of August and beginning of September, there may be a certain increase in barley prices. But starting in September, barley may become a more niche crop,” Pusk summarized.
