The Ukrainian barley market remains price-stable amid a gradual revival of trade in the new crop and anticipation of the results of the tender in Turkey, according to the analytical cooperative “Push,” established within the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council (VAR).
“The Turkish tender is currently the key factor for the market. According to preliminary estimates, over 200,000 tons of barley will be purchased for delivery in March–May. This is a fairly significant volume that affects the balance of supply and demand in the Black Sea region,” analysts noted.
On Ukraine’s domestic market, prices for old-crop barley remain relatively stable. Barley is trading at 10,800–11,100 UAH/ton. Analysts noted that due to exchange rates, the price should have risen to 11,200–11,400 UAH/ton, but there is currently no real demand at such price levels in Ukraine. The market remains passive, so no significant price fluctuations for the old crop are expected in the next month and a half.
At the same time, trade in new-crop barley is gradually picking up in Ukraine. The first price benchmarks for farmers have already been announced: standard-quality barley is fetching $205–207/ton, while buyers are willing to pay more—$210–211/ton—for barley meeting Chinese market requirements.
“In the coming weeks, we are unlikely to see significant changes in these levels. Theoretically, the new harvest could add a few more dollars, but this will not be a sharp movement. More active sales can be expected in April-May,” according to forecasts from “Push.”
Barley exports from Ukraine in the 2025/2026 marketing year (MY, July-June) are forecast at 2.8 million tons, which is 22% higher than the previous season, according to the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club (UACB) on Facebook.
The association’s analysts noted that barley production has remained relatively stable during the years of war, although it has declined significantly compared to the pre-war period. In 2025/26 MY, Ukraine harvested 5.3 million tons of this crop, which is 0.4% more than in the previous marketing year, but 19.7% less than the average for the last five years.
Among the key trends of the season, experts highlighted the largest reduction in barley acreage among all grains due to the temporary occupation of territories and low export potential. The area under cultivation was 1.4 million hectares, which is 0.9% less than in the previous marketing year and 26.4% below the five-year average. At the same time, barley was the only grain crop to show an increase in yield to 3.9 tons/ha, which was 8.4% higher than the average for the last five years.
Experts emphasized that increased production and high carryover stocks allowed for increased shipments to foreign markets after a decline in the 2024/2025 season. At the same time, Ukraine continues to experience a prolonged decline in domestic barley consumption, which is estimated at 2.8 million tons in the current marketing year. Of this volume, 1.9 million tons are used for feed, and 0.2 million tons are used for food.
“Despite the largest reduction in acreage among all grains, barley managed to maintain production volumes thanks to increased yields. The decline in domestic consumption and the availability of carryover stocks will allow Ukraine to increase exports in the 2025/2026 marketing year, meeting the demand of countries in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East,” the UACB concluded.
Barley exports from Ukraine between July and November of the 2025-2026 marketing year (MY, July-June) amounted to 1.2 million tons, which is 37% less than shipments during the same period of the 2024/25 MY and represents 46% of the projected export potential of grain, according to the information and analytical agency “APK-Inform”.
Experts noted that in November this year, barley exports from Ukraine amounted to 78.2 thousand tons, which is 50% less than in the same period a year earlier.
The main importers of Ukrainian grain in July-November were China, which purchased 42% of all shipments, Turkey with a share of 20%, and Libya (12%). At the same time, Turkey increased its imports of Ukrainian barley by 6.4 times in 2025/26 MY, purchasing 233 thousand tons compared to 36 thousand tons last season. Meanwhile, China and Libya reduced their barley purchases by 31% and 37%, respectively.
“The export potential of Ukrainian barley in 2025/26 MY is estimated at 2.5 million tons, which is 11% higher than last MY. The gross grain harvest is expected to reach 5.3 million tons,” according to APK-Inform’s forecast.
As of November 10, Ukrainian barley exports amounted to almost 75,000 tons, with grain prices rising, according to the analytical cooperative “Pusk,” created within the framework of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council (VAR).
“Barley is showing positive dynamics — prices rose by $2-4, or about 100-150 UAH per ton, over the week. On average, the conditional price for barley on the domestic market is about 10,600 UAH/ton. The market was supported by spot export sales, in particular to the Middle East and Algeria,” analysts explained.
At the same time, experts predict that the current growth may be short-term.
“Traders are now looking for deliveries until November 15-20 at the latest. After that, demand may disappear. That is, the $5-7 that the price per ton has gained may disappear just as quickly. The market is currently overheated locally, and barley remains a relatively expensive feed grain,” analysts noted.
Despite this, a slight increase is still possible in the coming days.
“By the end of this week or early next week, we may see further growth. Barley is likely to add $1-2 per ton, and accordingly may reach a conditional level of 10,800 UAH/ton on the domestic market,” Pusk concluded.
As of October 28, 2025, Ukrainian farmers had sown 5.349 million hectares of winter crops, which is 72% of the projected area. A year earlier, on October 22, 5.7 million hectares had been sown.
According to data on the website of the Ministry of Economy, Environment, and Agriculture, winter wheat crops increased to 3.858 million hectares (4.1 million hectares) over the week, barley — to 382,200 hectares (486,100 hectares), rye – to 63.2 thousand hectares (66 thousand hectares) .
“The leaders in grain crops are Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, and Kirovohrad regions. Poltava, Ternopil, and Chernihiv regions have already completed sowing,” the ministry said.
According to its data, as of October 21, rapeseed has been planted on an area of 1.05 million hectares (last year – 1.05 million hectares).
“The largest areas are in Vinnytsia, Odesa, and Khmelnytskyi regions. Currently, farmers in 14 regions have completed the sowing of winter rapeseed,” the report says.
The Ministry of Economy previously published forecast figures for the area sown with winter crops for the 2026 harvest. The ministry expects Ukrainian farmers to reduce the area sown with winter crops by 5.1% to 5.368 million hectares. At the same time, the area under winter wheat will be reduced by 4.4% to 4.778 million hectares, winter barley by 2.7% to 576,100 hectares, and winter rapeseed by 5.5% to 1.114 million hectares. At the same time, winter rye crops will increase by 7.6% to 69.3 thousand hectares.
As of September 29, Ukraine exported 235,000 tons of barley, despite the absence of supplies to China. Export rates and barley prices were supported by a tender in Turkey, according to the analytical cooperative “Pusk,” created within the framework of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council (VAR).
“Last week, Turkey’s state procurement company announced a tender for 255,000 tons of barley. This factor became the main driver of the market, ensuring a temporary increase in prices. Currently, the conditional prices for Ukrainian barley are $215–217 per ton, or 10,150–10,250 UAH/ton in ports. There is almost no support for prices on the domestic market, as barley remains more expensive than other feed crops,” analysts noted.
Experts believe that thanks to the Turkish tender, the market may maintain relatively high price levels for another week, with a possible increase of $1–2 per ton. However, after the tender activity ends, the price may return to the range of $210–214 per ton.
“In October, the barley market will traditionally be guided by wheat price dynamics. If the wheat market continues to show growth prospects, barley will also gradually rise in price,” Pusk concluded.
