The national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, will raise thorny issues like Taiwan and Russia with only months left before a new administration takes office.
Making another heavy push to work with China in the waning months of the Biden administration, Jake Sullivan arrived in Beijing on Tuesday for talks aimed at showing that the United States and China can manage their differences.
The U.S. national security adviser began his fifth meeting in less than 18 months with China’s top foreign policy official, Wang Yi, as the Biden administration seeks to reinforce its strategy on China despite uncertainty over the future of American foreign policy.
There is much to talk about — but probably little on which they will agree.
Mr. Sullivan plans to discuss working with China on limiting the spread of fentanyl and expanding high-level military contacts. He will also stress the United States’ position on Taiwan and its concerns about China’s support of Russia.
China indicated it would raise its own objections during the talks — including over America’s support for Taiwan, the island democracy Beijing claims, and U.S. controls on exports of technology to China.
Beijing wants the United States to ease its pressure on China, in the hope that it would set the tone for smoother relations with the next U.S. administration, analysts said.
“China’s priority is to maintain the stability of China-U.S. relations in the last several months of Biden’s presidency,” said Zhao Minghao, an expert on U.S.-China relations at Fudan University in Shanghai.
The prospect of a potential meeting between President Biden and China’s leader, Xi Jinping, before Mr. Biden’s term ends, is likely to come up. (It was unclear if Mr. Sullivan would meet with Mr. Xi during his three-day visit.)
Here are some of the issues Mr. Sullivan and Mr. Wang are expected to broach:
Taiwan and Ukraine
Perhaps the biggest flash points in relations between China and the United States are Russia’s war in Ukraine and China’s increasing aggression toward Taiwan.
Mr. Sullivan is likely to urge China to reduce its support to Russia, which the United States and NATO say has helped sustain Russia’s war effort, now in its third year. China buys huge quantities of Russian oil and supplies Russia with dual-use technology that can be applied to the battlefield, U.S. officials say.
Beijing is unlikely to turn its back on Moscow, its only major-power partner in counterbalancing the United States.
Chinese officials will seek to criticize U.S. support for Taiwan, which Mr. Xi has threatened to take by force, if necessary. Beijing accuses Washington of promoting “Taiwan independence” by supplying the island with arms and allowing for exchanges between American and Taiwanese officials.
China said in a statement on Sunday that the United States needed to do more to repair relations. “The United States has kept containing and suppressing China,” a foreign ministry statement said. The relationship, it said, is “still at a critical juncture of being stabilized.”
Taiwan was “the first and foremost red line that must not be crossed,” the statement read.
Technology Controls
Mr. Sullivan has championed the Biden administration’s export controls designed to prevent China from getting its hands on advanced American semiconductors, or microchips, that can be used to develop weapons or computing power that could threaten U.S. national security.
That has frustrated China, which has struggled to catch up with the United States in designing advanced chips despite investing billions of dollars in research. Beijing says the export controls are aimed at stunting China’s rightful development.
The restrictions, which were first introduced in October 2022, have had far-reaching consequences by forcing countries to shift, or consider shifting, some production of semiconductors out of Asia back to North America and Europe.
It is unclear what the long-term implications of U.S. export controls will be. China has seized on the restrictions to redouble efforts to become more technologically self-sufficient. Brokers have also used proxies to smuggle banned chips into China.
Will Xi and Biden Meet Again?
Mr. Sullivan’s visit could lay the groundwork for one last summit between Mr. Xi and Mr. Biden. Discussions between Mr. Sullivan and Mr. Wang were key to organizing last November’s meeting.
Though he will only serve one term, and one that was disrupted by the Covid pandemic, Mr. Biden could be the first president not to travel to China since President Carter.
Mr. Biden has visited China before, when he was vice president in 2011, a trip remembered for his stop at a local Beijing restaurant for noodles and dumplings. If a state visit is not possible, Mr. Xi and Mr. Biden could potentially meet at the APEC summit in Peru in November.
Of course, China may not be interested in Mr. Biden’s lame duck presidency and could be focused on how best to approach the next administration. Writing in Foreign Affairs magazine this month, the Chinese international relations scholars Wang Jisi, Hu Ran and Zhao Jianwei said Beijing sees little difference between a Trump or Harris administration; they will both be driven by domestic pressure to be tough on China.
“Beijing is preparing itself for the outcome of the U.S. elections with great caution and limited hope,” they wrote.
Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/27/world/asia/sullivan-biden-china-xi.html
In September, Ukraine will cut barley exports by more than half due to a reduction in Chinese purchases of the crop, according to the analytical cooperative Pusk, created within the framework of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council (AAC).
“The Ukrainian barley market is undergoing significant changes that affect export prospects. As of August 19, exports of this grain reached 315 thsd tonnes, but preliminary forecasts for September are worrying. The volume of contracts for August is 600 thousand tons, while only 280 thousand tons are contracted for September. This is almost half as much,” analysts said.
In their opinion, the main reason for the future decline in exports is the decrease in demand from China, which previously provided more than half of Ukraine’s barley exports.
“The Chinese factor plays a significant role here, as China used to account for 55-56% of the geographical structure of Ukrainian barley exports. China is not expected to return to the Ukrainian grain as actively, but will probably switch to Australian barley, which will be delivered in December-January. Without Chinese contracts, monthly exports of Ukrainian barley will not exceed 300 thousand tons,” the experts explained.
They pointed out that the decline in demand from China is already beginning to be felt in the domestic market. A number of traders stop accepting barley, switching to other crops such as corn.
At the same time, they point to a significant correlation between barley and wheat markets and predict that the expected rise in wheat prices will also contribute to the growth of barley prices.
“The notional barley prices are still in the range of $170-172 per ton. We can expect that the wheat market will pull up the barley market. So, by the end of August and beginning of September, there may be a certain increase in barley prices. But starting in September, barley may become a more niche crop,” Pusk summarized.
The amount of electricity generated in China in July rose 2.5% year-on-year to a record 883.1 billion kWh, according to the State Statistics Office.
Including generation at hydroelectric power plants jumped 36.2% (to 166.4 billion kWh), at solar power plants – 16.4%, at nuclear power plants – 4.3%. Meanwhile, electricity production at thermal power plants fell by 4.9% (to 574.9 billion kWh).
In January-July, the country generated 5.32 trillion kWh, which is 4.8% higher than in the same period of 2023. At the same time, production at thermal power plants increased by 0.5% (to 3.58 trillion kWh). As reported, China’s power generation in 2023 increased by 5.2% to 8.9 trillion kWh.
Li Hui, the Chinese government’s special representative for Eurasian affairs, said that 110 countries supported the joint plan of China and Brazil, the Six-Point Consensus, for a political settlement of the “Ukrainian crisis” (as China prefers to call the Russian invasion of Ukraine), the Chinese Foreign Ministry reports.
“The current war between Russia and Ukraine is still ongoing, and the top priority is to help cool the situation. The “Six-Point Consensus” jointly issued by China and Brazil to promote a political solution to the Ukrainian crisis has received positive feedback from more than 110 countries. China is willing to continue to strengthen communication and coordination with Brazil to jointly promote a final political solution to the Ukrainian crisis,” Li Hui said.
It is noted that on July 29, Li Hui visited Brazil and held meetings and talks with government officials, with whom he exchanged views on the situation in Ukraine.
Source: https://interfax.com.ua/
Wind and solar power in the first half of 2024 surpassed coal power in terms of capacity for the first time in Chinese history, the South China Morning Post (SCMP) reports, citing a report by the China Electricity Council (CEC). Thus, the share of wind and solar generation amounted to 38.4% (1180 GW) of the total installed capacity of 3070 GW, while the share of coal fell to 38.1% (1170 GW).
The CEC expects China to add about 300 gigawatts (GW) of solar and wind power to the grid this year, bringing their combined capacity to more than 40% of the total installed capacity of 3,300 GW of all energy sources.
China, which is currently the world’s largest consumer, producer and importer of coal, will reduce its share in the energy balance to 37%, according to the SPP.
According to Rystad Energy analysts, the reason for this change is the growing emphasis on cleaner energy sources and the country’s rejection of fossil fuels. Until 2016, about 50 GW of coal-fired power plants were built annually in the country, but at the same time, China began to make significant investments in renewable energy.
Since 2020, the annual commissioning of wind and solar power plants has consistently exceeded 100 GW, which is three to four times more than the increase in coal capacity. Since then, this momentum has only gained momentum, and last year China set a record by increasing solar and wind power capacity by 293 GW.
The dynamics in coal power, on the contrary, is declining: in 2023, about 40 GW of coal generation was added, and in the first half of 2024, according to Rystad Energy, only 8 GW. “The government has imposed stricter restrictions on new coal projects to meet its carbon reduction targets. Efforts are now focused on phasing out small coal-fired power plants, modernizing existing ones to reduce emissions, and ensuring that new projects meet stricter standards. As a result, the annual gap in capacity expansion between coal and clean energy has increased dramatically, reaching a 16-fold difference in the first half of 2024,” the experts say.
Rystad Energy analysts predict that by 2026, only solar energy will surpass coal as the main source of energy in China. Thus, the total capacity of solar generation will exceed 1.38 terawatts (TW), which is 150 gigawatts (GW) more than coal capacity.
At the same time, clean energy in China faces significant challenges such as low utilization and interruptions as capacity grows. According to Rystad Energy, solving these problems requires significant improvements to the power grid to increase transmission flexibility and storage capacity. Batteries will also be critical to maintaining grid reliability, ensuring that stability is maintained while clean energy expands to meet the needs of a growing population.
CHINA, China aims to peak CO2 emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. As part of this plan, Coal Energy, the share of non-fossil energy consumption should rise to about 25% by 2030. solar energy
Smartphone shipments in China in the second quarter grew by 10% year-on-year to more than 70 million units, according to analyst firm Canalys. For the first time in history, the top five positions in the list of the largest smartphone vendors in China are held by local companies, said Canalys analyst Lucas Zhong.
The market leader was the vivo brand, which increased sales by 15% year-on-year to 13.1 million smartphones and gained a market share of 19%. OPPO took second place with a market share of 16%, despite a 1% decline in sales. HONOR was third (15% of the market, 10.7 million devices sold), Huawei was fourth (also 15%, 10.6 million), and Xiaomi (SPB: 1810) was fifth (14%, 10 million).
The American Apple Inc. sold only 9.7 million smartphones in China last quarter, which dropped it out of the top 5 leading suppliers. Its market share dropped to 14% from 15% in the first quarter and 16% in the second quarter of last year.
According to a preliminary estimate by another research company, International Data Corporation (IDC), smartphone sales in China in April-June increased by 8.9% year-on-year to 71.6 million. According to the company, Apple is also not among the top five leaders in the Chinese market.
