Global commodity prices will decline over the next two years amid slowing global economic growth, increasing oil oversupply, and continuing economic policy uncertainty, according to the World Bank’s Commodity Markets Outlook.
The WB’s commodity price index will decline by 7% in both 2025 and 2026, falling to its lowest level since 2020, according to the organization’s experts.
Despite the decline, commodity prices remain above pre-pandemic levels: the WB’s forecasts for 2025 and 2026 suggest that the price index will be 23% and 14% higher than in 2019, respectively.
“The global oil surplus increased significantly in 2025 and is expected to exceed the 2020 peak by 65% next year,” the review says. WB experts note that global oil demand growth is slowing, particularly due to increased demand for electric and hybrid vehicles.
According to the organization’s forecast, the average price of Brent crude oil this year will be $68 per barrel and will fall to a five-year low of $60 per barrel next year. Overall, global energy prices are expected to decline by 12% in 2025 and 10% in 2026.
The World Bank forecasts a 6.1% decline in food prices this year and a 0.3% decline next year.
The review notes that precious metals have risen to record highs this year due to demand for the most reliable assets and continued purchases by global central banks. The price of gold is expected to rise by 42% in 2025 and by another 5% next year, while silver is expected to rise by 34% and 8%, respectively.
“The commodity price index may decline more than expected during the forecast period if global economic growth remains weak amid trade tensions and economic policy uncertainty. An increase in oil production by OPEC+ countries beyond expected volumes could exacerbate the oversupply in the market and lead to a further decline in prices. The sharp growth in electric vehicle sales expected by 2030 could further reduce demand for oil,” the review says.
On the other hand, geopolitical factors could push up oil and precious metal prices, the World Bank warns. Oil prices could also be higher than baseline projections if the market is affected by additional sanctions.
Commodities will become the most successful asset class in 2023, providing investors with returns of over 40%, analysts predicted Goldman Sachs Group.
According to their forecasts, the Standard & Poor’s GSCI Total Return Index, which takes into account the price dynamics of 24 types of commodities, will grow by 43% next year. The indicator is up 24% since the beginning of this year, while the S&P 500 stock index is down 16%.
“While individual commodity prices have nearly doubled, the amount of capex in the commodities complex as a whole is disappointing,” wrote Goldman analysts led by Jeff Curry and Samantha Dart. – “This has been a major revelation of 2022: Even extremely high prices can’t create enough capital inflows and trigger supply growth to address long-term deficits.
The price of Brent crude oil will reach $105 a barrel in the fourth quarter of next year, copper will cost $10,500 a ton, and liquefied natural gas on the spot market in Asia will rise to $53.1 per million British thermal units (BTU), Goldman forecasts.
As of Wednesday, Brent is trading near $82 a barrel, copper is at $8,400 a tonne and LNG is at $33 per 1 million BTU.
A Ukrainian delegation will study best practices in trading in commodities futures in the United States, Yulia Vitka, the deputy head of the USAID Financial Sector Transformation project, wrote on Facebook. “A delegation from Ukraine is once again leaving for Chicago to get in-depth knowledge of the activities of commodities futures trading giants such as stock exchanges (CME), elevators (COFCO), traders (ADM) and to talk to the biggest U.S. associations in these areas, such as the National Grain Association and the National Futures Association,” Vitka wrote.
She stated the delegation will focus on the agricultural and power industries, in which Ukraine “has got all the prerequisites to turn into a regional hub.” According to her, the implementation of such an instrument will allow to promote fair competition and reasonable pricing and to attract investors.
“What can be done as of today? First of all, vote for draft law No. 9035 that not only introduces financial instruments but also creates respective safety levers so that the trade would remain within the established rules, which will be trusted and respected,” Vitka said.
As was earlier reported, experts from the National Commission on Securities and the Stock Market and the USAID Financial Sector Transformation project announced in late 2017 that within a span of five years Ukraine stands a good chance to create a futures contracts market for agricultural products that will be worth $8 billion and for energy products worth about $20 billion.
