According to Fixygen analysts, the cryptocurrency market in the coming weeks will depend on inflows into spot BTC and ETH ETFs, expectations regarding the Fed rate, the dynamics of the U.S. tech sector, regulatory decisions in Washington, and the continued dominance of Bitcoin over altcoins.
Following a period of inflows, the market has faced significant outflows from spot cryptocurrency ETFs. For Bitcoin and Ethereum, this remains one of the key indicators of institutional demand. A return to sustained inflows could quickly improve investor sentiment and support a recovery in BTC and ETH. Continued outflows, conversely, will intensify pressure on the largest crypto assets and limit the growth potential of the entire market.
The second key factor remains the policy of the U.S. Federal Reserve and the dynamics of U.S. bond yields. Cryptocurrencies are still perceived by investors as risky assets, so rising expectations of tighter Fed monetary policy typically dampen demand for BTC, ETH, and altcoins. Falling yields and expectations of a more accommodative policy, on the other hand, could bring some capital back to the crypto market.
The third factor is the state of the U.S. tech sector. This week, cryptocurrencies reacted to sentiment surrounding Nvidia and growth stocks, indicating that the crypto market remains linked to the U.S. tech sector. If tech stocks continue their recovery, this could support risk appetite and help Bitcoin stay at the top of its current range. A new sell-off on the Nasdaq and in growth stocks, on the other hand, could intensify the correction in the crypto market.
Another key factor is the regulation of digital assets in the U.S. The market is monitoring the progress of bills related to the structure of the crypto market, the status of digital assets, rules for exchanges, and the regulation of stablecoins. Clearer rules could support the sector and attract institutional investors. However, strict requirements for trading platforms, stablecoin issuers, and DeFi infrastructure could trigger a new wave of volatility.
The fifth factor remains Bitcoin’s high share of market capitalization and the weakness of altcoins. As long as BTC holds more than half of the entire crypto market, a full-fledged altseason remains unlikely. For altcoins to grow independently, they need a new influx of liquidity, a reduction in Bitcoin’s dominance, and an improvement in overall risk appetite.
Thus, the near-term dynamics of cryptocurrencies will depend not only on the technical picture for BTC and ETH but also on external macro factors. Provided that outflows from ETFs continue, expectations regarding the Fed remain hawkish, and altcoins remain weak, the market may remain in a mode of cautious consolidation. A return of institutional demand, stabilization of tech stocks, and clearer regulatory signals could create conditions for a new attempt at growth.
According to Fixygen, the cryptocurrency market is ending the week in a mode of cautious consolidation: Bitcoin is holding near $76,000, Ethereum is around $2,100, and investors are assessing outflows from spot ETFs, macroeconomic risks, and the prospects for digital asset regulation in the U.S.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading around $76,300, and Ethereum around $2,087. Daily price action remained moderately positive following a dip earlier in the week, though the market has yet to return to sustained growth.
Outflows from cryptocurrency ETFs put pressure on the market throughout the week. According to industry reports, spot BTC ETFs in the U.S. recorded significant net outflows, and Ethereum ETFs were also under pressure. Amber Group noted that ETF flows for BTC and ETH shifted to outflows, reflecting more cautious investor sentiment.
WSJ Market Talk painted a similar picture: nearly $1.7 billion flowed out of Bitcoin ETFs over five days, while long-term Bitcoin holders did not exhibit significant selling pressure. Ethereum, according to this review, remained noticeably below its May peak amid sustained outflows from ETH ETFs.
At the start of the week, Bitcoin fell to a more than two-week low, dropping to around $76,000 amid a stock market pullback and rising yields. MarketWatch noted that on May 18, BTC lost about 2.5%, and the intraday low was the lowest since late April.
However, the market partially recovered by the end of the week. The Economic Times attributed Bitcoin’s rebound to $78,000 to improved sentiment following Nvidia’s strong earnings report and stabilizing buyer demand. However, BTC has not yet managed to hold above this level.
According to CoinGecko, the total market capitalization of the crypto market is approximately $2.64 trillion, with Bitcoin’s market cap at around $1.54 trillion and its market share at approximately 58.1%. This indicates that the market remains in a phase of BTC dominance, and a full-scale rotation of capital into altcoins has not yet occurred.
CoinMarketCap also indicates “Bitcoin Season” mode: the altseason index stands at around 37 out of 100, confirming Bitcoin’s dominance over most altcoins. Among the largest coins, BTC, ETH, BNB, Solana, and XRP were rising at the time, though the momentum remained more corrective than impulsive.
For the coming week, the $75,000–$78,000 range remains the key technical benchmark for Bitcoin. Holding above $75,000 could maintain a sideways consolidation scenario with attempts to return to $78,000–$80,000. A break below this level would increase the risk of a move toward lower support levels. For Ethereum, the $2,000–$2,150 range remains important: the weakness of the ETH-ETF and the lack of strong rotation into altcoins limit the potential for a rapid recovery.
The medium-term outlook remains ambiguous. On the one hand, the market is supported by institutional interest, limited BTC supply, and Bitcoin’s unchanged role as the leading crypto asset. On the other hand, outflows from ETFs, uncertainty regarding Fed rates, high correlation with tech stocks, and the weakness of altcoins make the market vulnerable to new corrections.
According to Fixygen, last week the cryptocurrency market began to recover after a prolonged period of weakness in March and early April; however, at the start of this week, the upward trend gave way to more volatile trading. On Tuesday, Bitcoin is trading around $76,200, and Ethereum around $2,320.
One of the main drivers last week was the return of funds to digital investment products. According to CoinShares, for the week ending April 13, net inflows into such instruments totaled $1.03 billion, of which $790 million went to Bitcoin. The company called this the largest weekly inflow since early January and attributed the recovery in risk appetite to softer-than-expected U.S. macroeconomic data and signs of easing geopolitical tensions at the time.
Bitcoin’s attempt to consolidate above $76,000–$78,000 provided additional support to the market late last week. CoinDesk reported that prices rose to nearly $78,000 amid expectations of progress in easing tensions surrounding Iran and maintaining shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
However, sentiment deteriorated early this week. The influence of Middle East factors intensified again in the market: Barron’s and other business publications reported declines in bitcoin and ethereum amid renewed uncertainty surrounding the U.S.-Iran conflict and risks to global risk appetite. Against this backdrop, Bitcoin retreated to the $74,700–75,400 range on Monday, while Ethereum also declined.
Thus, the market at the turn of last week and this week looked better than it did in early April, but has not yet emerged from a zone of heightened sensitivity to external developments. Institutional inflows are supporting Bitcoin, but geopolitics and general investor caution are preventing the market from quickly transitioning to a sustained uptrend.
In the coming days, Bitcoin’s behavior within the $74,000–$78,000 range will remain the key indicator. If inflows into funds continue, the market may again attempt to consolidate above the upper boundary of this range. However, if the news backdrop deteriorates further, cryptocurrencies, like other risky assets, may enter another correction.
According to Fixygen, last week and early this week, the cryptocurrency market began to recover following the prolonged volatility seen at the start of the year. On Tuesday, April 14, Bitcoin was trading at around $74,500, and Ethereum at around $2,380, with both major cryptocurrencies showing significant growth throughout the day.
One of the main signs of improving sentiment was the inflow into digital investment products. According to CoinShares, as of April 13, the weekly inflow into such instruments amounted to $1.03 billion, of which $790 million went to Bitcoin. This indicates a return of institutional interest, primarily in the market’s largest asset.
The sector is also receiving additional support from the crypto industry’s gradual convergence with traditional financial institutions. On Tuesday, Deutsche Boerse announced the purchase of a stake in the Kraken crypto exchange for $200 million, emphasizing that the partnership covers regulated crypto products, tokenized markets, and derivatives for institutional clients.
At the same time, the regulatory landscape remains one of the key market drivers. Last week, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urged Congress to pass legislation establishing federal rules for digital assets, stating that the lack of a clear regulatory framework had previously prompted some crypto businesses to shift their operations to other jurisdictions.
Thus, market sentiment at the turn of last week and this week can be described as cautiously positive. Bitcoin is once again the main beneficiary of capital inflows, Ethereum is catching up, and the entire sector is receiving support simultaneously from improved risk appetite, inflows into funds, and growing interest from major financial players. However, further dynamics will still depend on the US macroeconomic outlook and the progress of crypto regulation.
April 2026 could be a crucial milestone for the crypto market in terms of the regulatory agenda, which is increasingly influencing price dynamics and investor behavior, according to Fixygen.
In the U.S., the market is awaiting new signals from the SEC regarding token classification and the regulation of crypto exchanges. Following a series of legal disputes and a partial softening of regulatory approaches toward the industry, investors will closely monitor any statements from the regulator that could affect crypto companies’ access to the U.S. market.
At the same time, the Federal Reserve retains key influence through monetary policy. Any signals regarding interest rates and liquidity remain critical for crypto assets, which have demonstrated high sensitivity to global financial conditions in recent years.
In Europe, the main focus will be on the practical implementation of MiCA regulations. New clarifications and implementation milestones are expected in April regarding the licensing of crypto companies, asset custody, and user protection. This could impact the operations of exchanges and crypto services in the EU and neighboring countries.
In Asia, the positions of regulators in Hong Kong and Singapore remain key, as the formation of regulated crypto hubs continues. New licenses and requirements for exchanges are possible in April, which could intensify competition for global crypto companies.
According to analysts at Fixygen, initiatives to regulate stablecoins, which are being discussed in several jurisdictions simultaneously, remain an additional factor. Tighter control over this segment could directly impact market liquidity and the role of digital dollars in the crypto economy.
Overall, April is shaping up to be a month in which regulatory decisions, rather than macroeconomic factors, may become the main driver for the crypto market. Under such conditions, any news from key authorities can quickly translate into price movements, increasing volatility and setting new rules of the game for market participants.
According to Fixygen, the past week in the cryptocurrency market was marked by high volatility: prices were pressured by the conflict in the Middle East, rising oil prices, and a strengthening dollar; however, at the start of the new week, Bitcoin managed to hold near the $70,000 mark and partially recouped its losses. As of March 23, Bitcoin was trading around $70,800, and Ethereum around $2,160.
According to Fixygen, geopolitics remained the key external factor for the crypto market this week. Reuters reported that the escalation of tensions around the Strait of Hormuz and Brent’s surge above $113 per barrel intensified global risk-off sentiment, bolstered the dollar, and heightened fears that the Fed might maintain its hawkish policy for longer. For cryptocurrencies, this meant increased nervousness and a tighter correlation with other risky assets.
Regulatory uncertainty in the U.S. also added to the sector’s headwinds. Last week, Citigroup lowered its 12-month price targets for Bitcoin and Ethereum, citing the stalled progress of U.S. crypto legislation, particularly regarding the CLARITY Act and regulations for stablecoins. According to the bank’s assessment, the lack of rapid regulatory progress is dampening expectations of new institutional momentum.
Against this backdrop, the market experienced sharp volatility over the weekend and on Monday. According to Reuters and market reports, crypto assets initially fell due to rising tensions but then rebounded following signals of a possible pause in further escalation between the U.S. and Iran. Barron’s reported that Bitcoin rose above $70,000, while Investors.com noted an intraday jump above $71,000 following news of a temporary postponement of strikes.
Ultimately, the defining feature of the week was not a shift in the long-term trend, but a sharp increase in the crypto market’s sensitivity to macroeconomic factors. Whereas digital assets were previously often viewed as an isolated asset class, they are now reacting more noticeably to the dollar, yields, energy prices, and political risks.
Fixygen’s baseline forecast for the coming weeks is the continuation of a broad sideways range with high intraday volatility. For Bitcoin, the key zone appears to be the $68,000–$72,000 range: staying above it will support a stabilization scenario, while a new round of escalation in the Middle East or heightened expectations of a Fed rate hike could push the market back into a deeper correction. This conclusion is based on the current set of factors—oil, the dollar, and rate expectations.
For Ethereum, the picture looks weaker than for Bitcoin: the asset remains more sensitive to a decline in risk appetite and a slowdown in the inflow of institutional capital. If the regulatory agenda in the U.S. remains stalled, Ethereum is likely to lag behind Bitcoin and trade under significant pressure. This conclusion aligns with Citigroup’s revised forecast, which lowered its price target for Ethereum more sharply than for Bitcoin.
In a more positive market scenario, triggers could include de-escalation in the Middle East, a weaker dollar, and a return of expectations for Fed policy easing. In that case, the crypto market could quickly move toward a recovery, as liquidity and speculative demand in the sector remain high. But for now, the market is driven less by internal crypto news and more by global macroeconomics and geopolitics.
