The week of February 2-6, 2026, was marked by a sharp risk-off mode: BTC fell to around $60,000 at one point, then rebounded, but still showed its worst weekly performance since the end of 2022.
By Friday, Bitcoin had recovered to $65,894 (+4.4% for the day), but remained down approximately 14% for the week.
Ethereum was around $1,889 by the end of the week, compared to $2,344 at the beginning of the week (approximately -19%).
XRP fell from approximately $1.62 to $1.30 (about -20%).
Solana fell from approximately $104 to $84 (about -19%).
The key blow came on February 5: the market saw a “sell-off day” comparable in scale to the worst sessions since 2022, amid de-risking and shoulder exits.
A number of factors then came into play: the weakness of risky assets, nervousness around macro expectations, and a rapid “reversal” of positioning from cautious to defensive.
Against the backdrop of the decline in BTC, outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs intensified: in just one session of the week, net outflows amounted to about $545 million, and in two consecutive days – about $817 million.
At the same time, the market experienced a wave of liquidations: in one day, the volume of liquidations in crypto derivatives exceeded $1.4 billion (according to aggregate estimates).
On February 6, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell to 9 points — the “extreme fear” zone, a level that the media compared to the period of FTX stress.
If ETF outflows and liquidations begin to subside, the market may hold on to the rebound as “technical.” If flows remain negative and risk assets generally weaken, pressure on crypto will continue (especially on altcoins with high beta sensitivity).
February looks like a month of “macro + flows,” where the direction will be determined not so much by individual crypto news as by a combination of factors: expectations regarding interest rates, risk appetite, ETF behavior, and derivatives volatility.
Fixygen offers several scenarios for how the situation could unfold.
Base scenario (most likely)
Sideways market with increased volatility: Bitcoin is trying to recover after January’s sell-off, but is facing selling pressure as it approaches strong levels (including around $90,000). In this scenario, the “swings” will continue until there is a clear signal regarding liquidity — either through macro data or a sustained reversal of ETF flows.
Positive scenario
The market will get a “window” for growth if two conditions are met simultaneously:
sustainable net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs return (this reduces dependence on derivative demand);
macro policy becomes less tight, real yields fall, the dollar weakens, and the risk premium declines.
Then crypto could quickly recover from its late January slump, and altcoins could temporarily revive following BTC.
Negative scenario
If outflows from ETFs continue and macro expectations remain hawkish, pressure may return: the January episode showed how quickly the market unpacks when volatility and liquidations increase. In this case, February will be marked by the defense of support levels and investors’ flight to cash/safe-haven assets.
Markers we recommend watching in February:
1) daily statistics on spot Bitcoin ETF flows (inflows/outflows);
2) the state of derivatives: open interest, funding rates, liquidation “flashes”;
3) the tone of the macro agenda and the reaction of yields/the dollar to key data for the month;
4) the stability of BTC after the sharp movements at the end of January (the market is testing whether “demand on dips” is ready to be systemic).
Source: https://www.fixygen.ua/news/20260131/prognozi-na-lyutiy-dlya-rinku-kriptovalyut-vid-fixygen.html
The crypto asset market started 2026 with increased volatility and periodic sell-offs amid nervousness in global markets. On Monday, Bitcoin is trading at around $87,800, and Ether at around $2,900. The key short-term pressure factor is institutional demand behavior through exchange-traded products. According to Bloomberg, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw five consecutive days of outflows totaling approximately $1.7 billion last week, which heightened market participants’ caution. Additionally, Yahoo Finance reported notable weekly outflows from this category of funds.
At the same time, the crypto market remains linked to overall risk sentiment. Reuters recorded large capital flows in traditional markets in January, with investors more sensitive to geopolitics and trade restriction announcements, which typically increase demand for liquidity and reduce appetite for risky assets.
At the same time, the price decline is stimulating the launch of new strategies by major players. The Financial Times reported that Mike Novogratz’s Galaxy plans to launch a $100 million hedge fund in the first quarter of 2026, hoping to capitalize on market volatility and “maturation.”
A separate long-term trend is the acceleration of regulatory certainty and the convergence of the crypto industry with traditional finance. Reuters wrote about the introduction of a bill in the US that should clarify market rules and the distribution of roles between regulators. Against this backdrop, traditional asset managers are more actively testing tokenization: Reuters reported on F/m Investments’ application to tokenize ETF shares on US Treasury bills.
In Europe, the focus is shifting to the practical implementation of MiCA. ESMA reminds that for companies that operated under national rules until December 30, 2024, “grandfathering” applies — they can continue their services until July 1, 2026, or until a decision on the MiCA license is made. National regulators are also publishing their clarifications and transition schedules.
In the coming weeks, investors will typically look at the dynamics of flows in spot ETFs, regulatory news in the US and EU, and whether demand for “quality” within the crypto market — Bitcoin and the most liquid assets — will continue, while riskier tokens traditionally react more strongly to any spikes in volatility.
US President Donald Trump said in a speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos that he expects to sign a law regulating the structure of the cryptocurrency market, which will cover Bitcoin in particular, in the near future. According to him, the administration is striving to ensure that the US remains the “crypto capital of the world.” Trump also recalled that he had previously signed the GENIUS Act and added that Congress is working “very diligently” on a new set of rules for crypto assets, which he “hopes to sign very soon.”
Trump’s statements were accompanied by increased volatility in the cryptocurrency market: according to industry publications, Bitcoin initially fell after the comments from Davos, but then partially recovered and returned to levels around $90,000 as investors assessed the signals regarding regulation and the overall news background.
CRYPTO MARKET, DAVOS, LAW, TRUMP, USA
Bitcoin accelerated its growth in mid-January and is trading at around $97,024, updating the local highs of recent weeks. Ethereum is holding steady at $3,366.
According to CoinMarketCap, the global capitalisation of the crypto market is around $3.28 trillion, with Bitcoin accounting for around 59%, indicating a concentration of demand in the largest asset, while altcoins are growing less evenly.
The main driver in January is the return of institutional interest through ETFs. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded strong inflows, including about $843.6 million on 14 January, with total inflows measured in billions of dollars over several days.
The second factor is the US macroeconomy. The market reacted to inflation data and rate expectations, which directly affect risk appetite and the cost of capital. After the publication of the December CPI, Bitcoin accelerated at certain moments, and volatility in crypto intensified.
January news markers that may affect the exchange rate.
Regulation in the US. On 13 January, senators introduced a bill on rules for the crypto market, including the division of powers between the SEC and CFTC and the approach to stablecoins. On 15 January, discussions in the Senate Banking Committee were postponed after public criticism from Coinbase. This is a typical trigger for the market: clear rules are a plus for valuations, while delays and disputes are a cause for nervousness.
Stablecoins and payments. Visa is publicly increasing its focus on stablecoin payments: the company estimates the current annual run rate of such payments at approximately $4.5 billion, with an estimated $270 billion in stablecoins in circulation. Any news about stablecoin regulation and the banking lobby in the US can quickly affect sentiment in crypto.
Risk of incidents and hacks. In January, the market already received a reminder of technological risks: some tokens fell to almost zero after exploits (an example is the incident surrounding Truebit). Such events usually hit the ‘second tier’ and increase demand for quality (BTC, large protocols).
The key event of the month is the FOMC meeting on 27-28 January 2026 and the subsequent press conference. The Fed’s rhetoric on rates and inflation remains one of the strongest external factors for crypto at the beginning of the year.
The crypto market ended 2025 significantly weaker than most traditional asset classes. According to Fixygen’s estimates, Bitcoin fell by 5.75% over the year, Ethereum by 11.58%, and the altcoin sector by 42.27%. Fixygen
At the end of December, the market remained in a state of low liquidity and consolidation, with BTC and ETH trading around $88,000 and $3,000, respectively.
The key story of 2025 was strong growth to autumn highs and a subsequent sharp correction. Fixygen noted that the decline was exacerbated by derivatives and the forced closure of short positions worth about $19 billion. Fixygen In November, according to Fixygen analysts, the cryptocurrency market lost more than $1 trillion in capitalization amid profit-taking, deteriorating risk appetite, and outflows from exchange-traded funds. Fixygen
The end of the year was marked by a thin market and the impact of major events in derivatives: Fixygen pointed to the effect of low holiday liquidity and discussion of a large expiration of options on Deribit as a potential trigger for short-term volatility. Open4Business
Trends for 2025
1. Crypto is increasingly being traded as a risk asset alongside the macro agenda. This was evident, in particular, through sensitivity to interest rate expectations and overall market sentiment, as well as through participants’ discussions about ETF flows.
2. Rotation within the market: after overheating, capital sought more stable segments. The tokenization of real assets and the growth of infrastructure around RWA and stablecoins stood out: according to RWA.xyz, the total value of tokenized RWA on public blockchains is about $19.17 billion, and the stablecoin market is about $298 billion.
3. Regulation became part of investment risk and part of the industry’s “legitimization”: 2025 brought noticeable regulatory changes and increased attention to compliance in various regions.
The near future: baseline scenario and crossroads
The baseline scenario for early 2026 is continued consolidation after a volatile fall, when the market will “digest” the correction, and dynamics will largely remain dependent on the macro background, capital flows, and the news agenda.
Further on, the fork is simple. The positive scenario is a return of steady demand from large investors and a restoration of risk appetite, which usually supports BTC and then triggers a selective “second wave” in liquid altcoins. The negative scenario is a new wave of risk-off (due to rates, geopolitics, or regulatory surprises), in which altcoins, as the riskiest segment, feel the pressure the most — this was already evident at the end of 2025.
