According to Fixygen, this week was marked by high volatility for the crypto market, but by the end of the week, digital assets had managed to recoup a significant portion of their losses. As of Friday, Bitcoin was trading around $71,530, having risen to $73,900 during the day. Ethereum held steady at $2,120, with an intraday high of $2,200. This indicates that, following a nervous reaction to the escalation in the Middle East, the market has once again shifted toward buying the dips.
The main external driver of the week remained the conflict surrounding Iran. Oil jumped to $119.5 per barrel at the start of the week, and by Friday, Brent was hovering around $100, which intensified fears of a new round of inflation and a deterioration in global risk sentiment. Against this backdrop, the crypto market initially traded like a classic risk asset but then began to appear more stable than stocks and a number of other volatile instruments.
According to Fixygen analysts, institutional flows provided support to the market. According to CoinShares, for the week ending March 9, digital investment products attracted $619 million, with nearly all of the positive momentum coming from the U.S. Bitcoin accounted for $521 million in net inflows, Ethereum for $88.5 million, and Solana for $14.6 million, while XRP, conversely, saw a notable outflow of $30.3 million. The week prior, the market had already seen $1 billion in inflows following five weeks of outflows, indicating a gradual return of demand after the February correction.
However, the week’s performance was uneven. CoinShares notes that in the first three days, investors poured $1.44 billion into digital assets, but then on Thursday and Friday, outflows of $829 million followed due to a spike in oil prices. In other words, the market remains extremely sensitive to macroeconomics: as soon as traders again saw the risk of higher inflation and tighter interest rate expectations, appetite for crypto assets immediately deteriorated.
From a fundamental perspective, the week was rather neutral-to-positive. On the one hand, expectations remain that the U.S. ETF market will continue to gradually expand the presence of institutional capital in cryptocurrencies. On the other hand, difficulties have resurfaced in the U.S. regarding a key bill to regulate the crypto market: negotiations have stalled due to a dispute between banks and crypto companies over the future model for stablecoin products. This means that the market continues to receive support from capital but lacks full regulatory clarity.
In the short term, the market looks like this: Bitcoin has once again consolidated above the psychological threshold of $70,000, while Ethereum is holding the $2,000 range. This is a positive sign following the nervousness seen in February and March. But if the oil shock drags on and inflationary pressure intensifies, cryptocurrencies could quickly return to a mode of sharp sell-offs. For now, the week has largely ended in favor of the bulls: institutional money has returned, Bitcoin has rebounded, and the market has shown that even against the backdrop of war and high oil prices, it is not yet ready to enter a full-blown phase of capitulation.
According to Fixygen, the cryptocurrency market ended the last week of February with a moderate decline: Bitcoin fell to $65,900 on February 28 from $68,000 on February 22, corresponding to a drop of approximately 3%.
During the week, BTC fell to around $64,100 on February 25, then rebounded to $67,900 on February 26, after which it fell below $66,000 again. Ethereum fell by about 2% (to $1,930) over the same period, and Solana fell by about 4% (to $82).
According to CoinMarketCap, at the end of the week, the total capitalization of the crypto market was about $2.25 trillion, with Bitcoin’s dominance at about 58% and 24-hour turnover at about $93-96 billion.
Possible scenarios: baseline — consolidation in the $64-68 thousand range with neutral news background; positive — return to attempts to test $68-70 thousand with improved risk appetite; negative – a decline below $64,000 with an acceleration of the sell-off amid heightened geopolitical risks and pressure from global markets.
According to Fixygen, the cryptocurrency market ended the working week of February 9-15 in consolidation mode after sharp movements at the beginning of the month: Bitcoin fell by approximately 1.7% over the period, from $70,127.9 on February 9 to $68,949.8 on February 15, with an intraday range of around $65,100-71,400.
Ethereum looked weaker: over the week, the price fell by about 4.6%—from $2,104.66 on February 9 to $2,007.02 on February 15. The weekly lows for ETH were around $1,899, indicating increased volatility in the altcoin segment.
Investor sentiment in the middle of the week was influenced by expectations of key US macro data and uncertainty about the trajectory of interest rates. Against this backdrop, Bitcoin quickly lost several percent on certain days, and crypto assets moved in tandem with risky segments of the stock market.
Interest in exchange-traded products remained a separate stabilizing factor: industry reviews noted inflows into iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) even amid falling prices.
According to industry daily reports, at the beginning of the period under review, the overall market attempted to recover from the previous days’ decline, and capitalization returned to around $2.4 trillion, but it failed to consolidate its steady growth over the week.
Tax revenues from Kyrgyzstan’s virtual asset market in 2025 exceeded the fees from the country’s largest commodity market Dordoi (Bishkek), according to data and comments published by regional media with reference to official statistics and industry participants.
According to the Financial Market Regulation and Supervision Service, in 2025, the budget from the market of virtual assets received almost 1.7 billion soms in taxes, with virtual asset service providers (exchangers and exchanges) providing 1.48 billion soms, and mining companies – 206.17 million soms.
The regulator also records a sharp increase in the scale of operations: the total turnover of virtual asset service providers in 2025 amounted to 2.735 trillion KGS with more than 2.12 million transactions, with over 94% of the turnover formed by exchange operations. The report indicates that 82 exchange operators and 5 crypto exchanges were registered in 2025, while mining activities, according to the finnadzor, have been effectively suspended since December 2025 and companies submit zero reporting.
The week of February 2-6, 2026, was marked by a sharp risk-off mode: BTC fell to around $60,000 at one point, then rebounded, but still showed its worst weekly performance since the end of 2022.
By Friday, Bitcoin had recovered to $65,894 (+4.4% for the day), but remained down approximately 14% for the week.
Ethereum was around $1,889 by the end of the week, compared to $2,344 at the beginning of the week (approximately -19%).
XRP fell from approximately $1.62 to $1.30 (about -20%).
Solana fell from approximately $104 to $84 (about -19%).
The key blow came on February 5: the market saw a “sell-off day” comparable in scale to the worst sessions since 2022, amid de-risking and shoulder exits.
A number of factors then came into play: the weakness of risky assets, nervousness around macro expectations, and a rapid “reversal” of positioning from cautious to defensive.
Against the backdrop of the decline in BTC, outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs intensified: in just one session of the week, net outflows amounted to about $545 million, and in two consecutive days – about $817 million.
At the same time, the market experienced a wave of liquidations: in one day, the volume of liquidations in crypto derivatives exceeded $1.4 billion (according to aggregate estimates).
On February 6, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell to 9 points — the “extreme fear” zone, a level that the media compared to the period of FTX stress.
If ETF outflows and liquidations begin to subside, the market may hold on to the rebound as “technical.” If flows remain negative and risk assets generally weaken, pressure on crypto will continue (especially on altcoins with high beta sensitivity).
February looks like a month of “macro + flows,” where the direction will be determined not so much by individual crypto news as by a combination of factors: expectations regarding interest rates, risk appetite, ETF behavior, and derivatives volatility.
Fixygen offers several scenarios for how the situation could unfold.
Base scenario (most likely)
Sideways market with increased volatility: Bitcoin is trying to recover after January’s sell-off, but is facing selling pressure as it approaches strong levels (including around $90,000). In this scenario, the “swings” will continue until there is a clear signal regarding liquidity — either through macro data or a sustained reversal of ETF flows.
Positive scenario
The market will get a “window” for growth if two conditions are met simultaneously:
sustainable net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs return (this reduces dependence on derivative demand);
macro policy becomes less tight, real yields fall, the dollar weakens, and the risk premium declines.
Then crypto could quickly recover from its late January slump, and altcoins could temporarily revive following BTC.
Negative scenario
If outflows from ETFs continue and macro expectations remain hawkish, pressure may return: the January episode showed how quickly the market unpacks when volatility and liquidations increase. In this case, February will be marked by the defense of support levels and investors’ flight to cash/safe-haven assets.
Markers we recommend watching in February:
1) daily statistics on spot Bitcoin ETF flows (inflows/outflows);
2) the state of derivatives: open interest, funding rates, liquidation “flashes”;
3) the tone of the macro agenda and the reaction of yields/the dollar to key data for the month;
4) the stability of BTC after the sharp movements at the end of January (the market is testing whether “demand on dips” is ready to be systemic).
Source: https://www.fixygen.ua/news/20260131/prognozi-na-lyutiy-dlya-rinku-kriptovalyut-vid-fixygen.html
