On January 1, 2026, Bulgaria officially switched to the euro and became the 21st country in the eurozone. For the Bulgarian economy, this step is largely institutional in nature: for many years, the lev was tightly pegged to the euro through the currency board, so the market did not expect a sharp change in the monetary regime. At the same time, the country will get a seat on the ECB’s governing bodies and deeper integration into the eurozone’s financial system, according to the Experts Club information and analytical center.
Maksym Urakin, founder of the Experts Club analytical center, believes that the effect of the transition will be determined by how quickly the authorities “knock down” inflation expectations among the population and businesses: “The euro itself does not make the economy richer overnight, but it reduces transaction costs and increases investor confidence. The key test in the first few months will be controlling price speculation and communicating clearly with consumers.”
The main domestic risk around which public debate in Bulgaria is centered is inflationary expectations and fears of price “rounding” in retail and services. Such fears traditionally accompany currency changes, even if the actual effect is usually limited in time and concentrated in the sector of daily household expenses.
After Bulgaria’s entry into the eurozone, six countries remain in the EU that do not use the euro: Sweden, Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Denmark, and Romania.
According to Experts Club estimates, the expansion of the eurozone will be slow in the coming years, as each of these countries has its own “stop factors” — from political constraints to failure to meet convergence criteria and budget deficit problems.
In Poland, for example, the government has publicly stated that the country is “not yet ready” for the euro and considers the zloty to be an instrument of macroeconomic flexibility that has helped it weather past shocks.
In the Czech Republic, President Petr Pavel has called for more active movement towards the euro as a factor in trade and decision-making, but there is no political consensus on the timing in the Czech Republic.
In Hungary, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, on the contrary, has stated several times that the country should not adopt the euro.
Sweden formally relies on the results of the 2003 referendum, when 55.9% of voters opposed the introduction of the euro.
Denmark, unlike the others, has a legally enshrined right not to introduce the euro (opt-out), confirmed by a referendum in 2000.
Experts Club notes that Romania is considered the next country after Bulgaria that is most likely to apply for the introduction of the euro. However, the actual timeline depends on inflation and the budget trajectory: the European Commission indicated in its convergence materials that Romania does not meet the conditions for adopting the euro, including the parameters of public finance sustainability and legal compatibility. The public guidelines in the Romanian discussion mention a target date of around 2029, but the timing may shift depending on economic indicators and fiscal adjustments.
Issue No. 2 – December 2025
The purpose of this review is to provide an analysis of the current situation on the Ukrainian currency market and forecast the hryvnia exchange rate against key currencies based on the latest data. We analyze current conditions, market dynamics, key influencing factors, and likely scenarios.
Analysis of the current situation on the currency market
International context
The second half of December 2025 was influenced by the third cut in the US Federal Reserve’s key policy rate this year, as well as expectations of a planned rate cut in the new year 2026. Most analysts believe that the latest key macroeconomic data support expectations that the Fed will continue to cut rates in 2026. Inflation in the United States fell more than expected to 2.7% year-on-year, while unemployment rose to 4.6%. These statistics allow the Fed to plan further rate cuts. The next meeting of the Fed Committee will take place in late January, and it will be known whether the rate cuts will take place at the beginning of the year or whether the Committee members will decide to postpone the next stage of monetary policy easing to March.
Meanwhile, the media was stirred up by the statement of the Donald Trump administration regarding its expectations for US GDP growth of 3% in 2026. Joe Lavorgna, an adviser to US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, noted that if the economy continues to grow by 3% next year due to increased supply, this will mean a decline in inflation. In his opinion, the Fed can continue to cut rates, and even said that the Fed should cut rates. Currently, the US is in a bit of euphoria over the fact that GDP for the third quarter was 4.3%, as consumer spending, which accounts for 70% of growth, and exports have both increased. Donald Trump also said that he expects the next Fed chairman to cut interest rates if the economy is doing well. It is currently known that the Fed has planned one rate cut in 2026, but in the end, everything will depend on the position of the new Fed chairman and the receipt of new statistics on inflation and the US labor market. It is possible that the rate will be cut twice, depending on the rate of real economic growth. Analysts also believe that any sharp decline in the artificial intelligence boom will require further rate cuts, as artificial intelligence has contributed to the lion’s share of GDP growth over the past year, both directly through business investment and indirectly through the rising stock market, which has stimulated consumer spending.
As expected, the key policy rate cut affected the behavior of the EUR/USD pair, and the dollar is weakening despite positive signals about the growth rate of the US economy. At the end of December, the rate was above $1.1772, so it continues to test new levels – closer and closer to the $1.1800 level previously predicted by analysts. In the future, the dollar is expected to weaken against the euro, in particular against the backdrop of central bank policy.
As for the stability of the euro, it is clear that the eurozone has managed to overcome the effects of Trump’s new tariffs faster and better than expected. Growth in Europe remains steady, with inflation hovering close to the ECB’s 2% target. At the end of 2025, the European Central Bank left its key deposit rate unchanged at 2%. According to the ECB, the eurozone’s GDP growth for the year will be 1.4%, compared to the previous estimate of 1.2%. For 2026, GDP growth is projected at 1.2%, and the eurozone economy will grow by 1.4% in 2027.
Domestic Ukrainian context
While in the first half of December, the hryvnia remained in the range of 42.26-42.33 UAH/USD (official exchange rate), in the second half of the last month of 2025, there were multidirectional fluctuations, when on December 18, there was a clear weakening of the hryvnia – the average value on the interbank market reached 42.40 UAH/USD, and the official exchange rate was 42.34 UAH/USD. However, in the following sessions of December, the market leveled off, in part due to the participation of the National Bank of Ukraine in the auction, and the hryvnia strengthened: the official exchange rate returned to below 42 UAH/USD. In October, the NBU sold $2.9 billion in foreign currency, and in November it sold $2.88 billion. It is likely that in December, interventions will also be no less than in November. In total, the NBU sold $34.6 billion on the market since the beginning of the year and through December 19.
December was a successful month for Ukraine, when it received multibillion-dollar tranches of funds from its partners. In the third decade of December, Ukraine received €2.3 billion under the Ukraine Facility program (the sixth tranche under the program), bringing the total amount of EU financial assistance in 2025 to more than €28.7 billion. The funds received help support the economy and ensure macrofinancial stability.
The NBU discount rate remained unchanged at the end of 2025, remaining at 15.5% per annum. The NBU said that it expects the risks associated with the adequacy and rhythm of external financing to ease, allowing the NBU to start a cycle of key policy rate cuts next year. The NBU’s Monetary Policy Committee believes that the key policy rate will be 12.5% at the end of 2026, but the balance of risks to inflation and the key policy rate trajectory has shifted upward in the wake of the war, so they do not rule out a tighter policy scenario.
Next year is not expected to be easy and predictable for the national currency, which is under considerable pressure in the context of the war due to the great uncertainty about the duration of hostilities and changes in the situation at the front, risks to the energy and industrial sectors in general, and high import needs for equipment, military equipment, and fuel. The trajectory of the exchange rate will depend on many factors, and one of the key ones will be the volume and rhythm of foreign aid inflows.
According to the EU, Ukraine needs $81 billion in additional financial assistance for defense and government operations in 2026. The good news in December was the approval of a €90 billion loan from the EU to Ukraine – the leaders of the EU member states reaffirmed their readiness to help Ukraine ensure financial sustainability in 2026-2027, in particular to cover urgent budgetary, military, and defense needs. The parties agreed to provide Ukraine with a €90 billion loan at the expense of EU borrowings in the capital markets, and Ukraine will repay the loan only after Russia compensates for the damage caused by the aggression.
US dollar exchange rate: dynamics and analysis
General characteristics of market behavior
In the second half of December, the US dollar initially strengthened on the Ukrainian market, but then the trend reversed. As a result, the hryvnia suddenly started to strengthen at the end of the year.
In general, the exchange rate changed in December as follows: on the interbank market, the selling rate at the beginning of the month was at 42.32 UAH/$, on December 18 – at 42.40 UAH/$, but on December 25, there was a pullback to 42.06 UAH/$.
On the cash market, the buying rate in December was in the range of UAH 41.6-42.10/$, and the selling rate was in the range of UAH 42.2-42.55/$. At bank cash desks, the spread between the buying and selling rates remained unchanged compared to November, amounting to UAH 0.45-0.6 per dollar.
Key factors of influence
1. International context. The dollar began to lose ground sharply against the euro as a result of the third Fed key rate cut in 2025, as well as expectations of the next round of easing in January 2026.
2. Ukraine continues to receive assistance from its partners: in the third decade of December, the country received €2.3 billion under the Ukraine Facility program, and the EU agreed on a €90 billion loan to Ukraine.
Forecast.
– Short-term (1-2 weeks): the basic range is 42.15-42.55 UAH/$ with possible multidirectional fluctuations.
– Medium-term (2-3 months): 42.30-43.50 UAH/$. On the international market, the dollar’s weakening will be influenced by the Fed’s monetary policy, i.e. further steps to reduce the key policy rate. In Ukraine, the hryvnia will be affected by factors such as the state budget deficit, the situation at the frontline, gas purchases, imports of energy equipment, and new aid inflows from partners.
– Longer term (6+ months): the depreciation trend will remain dominant, with the NBU’s ongoing interventions keeping exchange rate fluctuations smooth and the exchange rate trajectory flexible. The exchange rate target for the first half of 2026 is UAH 42.6-44.60/$.
Euro exchange rate: dynamics and analysis
General characteristics of market behavior
In December, the euro strengthened on the Ukrainian market: the official euro exchange rate was 48.89 UAH/€ in early December and 49.42 UAH/€ at the end of the month.
Key observations
Ø Exchange rate geometry:
o The selling rate for cash euros at the beginning of the month was at around UAH 49.45-49.50/€, and at the end of December it was at UAH 49.8-49.9/€. The dynamics of the euro exchange rate was influenced by the global market trend, where the euro strengthened, and was also reflected in the exchange rate by the growing demand for euros from importers on the interbank market.
Ø Supply and demand:
o Demand for euros has been at a high level for several months in a row, as domestic companies make payments to European sellers in euros. Demand on the cash market also remains strong, as well as expectations that the euro will soon cross the psychological mark of 50 UAH/€.
Key influencing factors
– Global context: The euro is strengthening as a result of the US’s gradual easing policy, which is reflected in the exchange rate trajectory in the direction of a weaker dollar and a stronger euro. The euro’s stability is also linked to the eurozone’s continued and steady economic growth and the overcoming of the challenges posed by Trump’s tariffs.
– Domestic market: demand for the euro in the cash segment remains stable, although the traditional trend of a temporary increase in the volume of cash sales by households, including the euro, is noticeable in the run-up to the Christmas and New Year holidays.
Forecast.
– In the short term (1-2 weeks), the euro will be in the range of 49.6-49.9 UAH/€ with the possibility of a temporary move to the level of 50 UAH/€.
– Medium-term (2-3 months): if the Fed cuts the rate by 25 bps in January, the euro will continue to strengthen, and fluctuations on the Ukrainian market may be in the range of UAH 49.9-52.80/€.
– Longer-term (6+ months): the euro is likely to rise in the first half of 2026 to the level of 52.20-56.80 UAH/€.
Recommendations: dollar or euro – buy, sell, or wait?
USD/UAH
For 2026, most forecasts are related to the continued growth of key economies and investment, in particular in new technologies and AI tools. However, there are restrained hopes for cautious economic growth, so we cannot expect explosive growth in the economies of the United States, the European Union, China, and Japan. Meanwhile, the US dollar will be influenced by the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, uncertainty about the new Fed chairman and his attitude to the implementation of the inflation control strategy.
The scenario of further weakening of the US currency amid rate cuts and the situation in the US labor market remains highly likely. There may also be unexpected “black swans” in 2026, as geopolitical tensions persist, in particular due to the ongoing war in Ukraine, and there are risks associated with the high debt burden of developed countries. Experts also see another risk as threatening: the rapid development of artificial intelligence could create an economic bubble and increase fears about the future labor market.
In this situation, investors should consider both liquid currencies (dollar, euro) and gold, which is a traditional safe haven for capital in times of uncertainty and high risks, when planning future investments.
EUR/UAH
The euro currency is strengthening in the global and domestic markets, but is subject to multidirectional trajectories, which may complicate the investment program for this currency. It is likely that the euro will have a chance to strengthen globally in the coming months. For Ukrainian investors, the euro will remain one of the most important areas of the currency accumulation strategy, although the US dollar will have a predominant place in the portfolio for long-term planning.
Overall strategy
Next year will certainly be challenging for investors, as the possibility of uneven exchange rate fluctuations remains, both due to the Fed’s monetary policy and the ongoing economic challenges for key global economies. As the US continues its easing policy, the dollar may continue to weaken, while the euro is likely to strengthen thanks to the ECB’s steady policy and positive forecasts for the eurozone’s economic development.
In the medium- and long-term investment strategy, the dollar will retain its dominant position, as the US currency remains the main reserve currency and plays a leading role for central banks and global investments. Thus, in Ukraine, the US dollar will have a major share in investors’ foreign currency savings. Meanwhile, the country’s proximity to the EU, close business ties with eurozone countries, and the steady strengthening of the euro allow it to be included in various foreign exchange savings programs.
In 2026, most forecasts are associated with a gradual weakening of the hryvnia exchange rate, which is reflected in both the State Budget Law and the requirements of the International Monetary Fund. Demand for cash and non-cash foreign currency will remain high. Fluctuations in Ukraine’s interbank market will be smoothed out by the NBU’s interventions, which will maintain its policy of exchange rate flexibility in the face of war and heightened economic challenges. The expected weakening of the hryvnia will allow investors to build a reliable portfolio of savings in liquid currencies and partially focus on gold assets. The US dollar and the euro will remain the main currencies for investment strategies.
This material was prepared by analysts of the international multiservice FinTech product platform KYT Group and reflects their expert, analytical professional judgment. The information presented in this review is for informational purposes only and cannot be considered as a recommendation for action.
The Company and its analysts make no representations and assume no liability for any consequences arising from the use of this information. All information is provided “as is” without any additional warranties of completeness, obligations of timeliness or to update or supplement.
Users of this material should make their own risk assessment and informed decisions based on their own evaluation and analysis of the situation from various available sources that they consider to be sufficiently qualified. We recommend that you consult an independent financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
REFERENCE
KYT Group is an international multi-service marketplace FinTech product platform that provides financial companies with access to services for promoting their services, as well as advertising and consulting services.
The November collapse of bitcoin from levels above $120 thousand to the zone of about $80 thousand was a cold shower for retail investors – primarily young investors, for whom crypto has long become not an exotic, but the main “investment” instrument. But the current correction has not destroyed the interest, but only exposed what professionals have been saying for a long time: in the eyes of some young people, the crypto market looks more and more like high-risk betting rather than classic investments.
A fresh survey by YouGov and Young Men Research Project, published by MarketWatch, shows a generational gap in financial behavior. Among U.S. men ages 18-29:
28% own crypto assets (cryptocurrency and/or cryptocurrency ETFs),
while only 21% are saving for retirement through 401(k) and other classic retirement plans.
Bitcoin remains the “anchor” of the portfolio, followed by Ether and Solana; the share of meme-coin investments is noticeably smaller, but these are the ones that reinforce the impression of a “casino approach” to money management. What’s also important is who exactly we see in these statistics. The research shows:
the higher the income and education level, the more likely a young person is to have both a crypto and a classic retirement account;
among freelancers and those in non-standard forms of employment, crypto is often the only “long term” asset – they simply don’t have access to retirement plans.
So this is not just a story about “irresponsible players” – in many ways it is a reaction to the new conditions of the labor market, where stability and a social package have become a luxury.
For some young people, crypto fulfills several roles at once:
Financial elevator. Against the backdrop of low housing affordability, expensive education and de facto stagnant wages, the temptation to “jump the ladder” through a successful entry into BTC or altcoin is very high. Stories of early holders with X10-X50 fuel expectations.
Part of the online culture. Crypto is embedded in the ecosystem of YouTube, Reddit, X, Discord. There’s also betting, trading, sports betting. For many, it’s a unified medium of pastime and risk. Researchers directly record the intersection of the audiences of cryptoinvestors and online gambling fans.
Distrust of the “old” system. Pensions and traditional funds are associated with bureaucracy, slow returns and lack of control. Crypto, on the contrary, seems to be an instrument of “personal freedom” – even if the real control is limited to knowing a couple of apps and passwords.
All of this makes the crypto market susceptible to waves of FOMO and panic. The November dip after historic highs showed how painful such swings can be for those who went in “on the shoulder of hope” rather than as part of a well-thought-out strategy.
1. The risk of a “lost decade” for personal finances.
If a significant portion of a generation is betting almost exclusively on crypto rather than a diversified portfolio and retirement savings, every major market drawdown sets their financial goals back years. It’s not just about balance sheet decline – it’s about psychological “burnout” from investing itself.
2. Increased market volatility.
The greater the share of participants with a short horizon, high risk tolerance and “game” orientation, the more the market resembles a derivative casino. This amplifies the amplitude of movements and increases the likelihood of sharp drops when macro backdrop or regulatory news deteriorates.
3. Field for regulators.
Crypto’s growing share of youth savings is almost guaranteed to increase regulatory attention, from the US to the EU to emerging markets. Already, restrictions on the marketing of high-risk products, requirements for exchanges to protect unqualified investors, and tighter KYC/AML controls are being discussed.
For countries like Ukraine, where the share of cryptoactive youth is also high, these trends mean an inevitable dialog: how to develop an innovative market without turning it into a mass trap for personal finance.
Outlook: three scenarios beyond November
If we look at the end of the year and 2026 through the lens of retail investors, we can roughly distinguish three scenarios:
“Nervous Stabilization” (baseline).
Bitcoin and large altcoins trade in a wide corridor, some retailers record losses and go into stablecoins or cache, but a core of young holders remain in the market. Crypto is gradually being integrated into more conservative products (ETP, funds), and the growth of interest compensates for the partial outflow of the disappointed.
New wave of euphoria.
Against the backdrop of falling rates, inflows of institutional capital or “Bitcoin in retirement plans” style news, we see a rally again. Young people see the November drawdown as “one more chance to get in” and the market structure becomes even more fragile due to increased shoulder demand.
Regulatory shock.
A major scandal, the collapse of another exchange or a tough package of restrictions in one of the jurisdictions may provoke not only a price spill, but also a mass exit of a part of retail. Against this background, interest in classic instruments (ETFs on indices, bonds, pension plans) temporarily increases.
Which scenario will be realized depends largely on macroeconomics, central bank policy and the depth of future regulatory reforms.
The November collapse showed the main fork for a young investor: to stay in the logic of rates or to switch to the logic of strategy. The answer to this question will determine not only the future bitcoin exchange rate, but also the financial health of an entire generation.
Issue No. 1 – December 2025
The purpose of this review is to provide an analysis of the current situation on the Ukrainian currency market and a forecast of the hryvnia exchange rate against key currencies based on the latest data. We analyze current conditions, market dynamics, key influencing factors, and likely scenarios.
Analysis of the current situation on the foreign exchange market
The first half of December 2025 was spent waiting for the US Federal Reserve Committee to meet and decide on a new key policy rate. On December 10, at the meeting, as expected by markets and investors, the Committee decided on the next stage of easing, which shifted the Fed’s interest rates to a new range: from 3.5% to 3.75%. After announcing the decision on the new rate range, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that the Committee decided to cut rates due to a number of factors, including a cooling in the US labor market, i.e. an actual increase in the unemployment rate. According to him, the Fed believes that recent employment figures (about 60 thousand jobs) were “overstated”. “There is no risk-free path for policy as we navigate this tension between our employment and inflation goals. It is our responsibility to make sure that a one-time increase in the price level does not become a permanent inflation problem,” said Jerome Powell.
Whether there will be another rate cut at the end of January 2026 is one of the main questions that the Fed did not answer. The Fed says that the decision on the next vote at the end of January has not yet been made. Jerome Powell believes that after a three-quarter point cut, interest rates are in the neutral range, the level the Fed seeks, as it does not accelerate or slow economic growth. Meanwhile, the Fed chairman rejected speculation that a rate hike might occur next year.
For the EUR/USD pair, another cut in the key policy rate means that the US dollar continues to weaken. In fact, a few days after the Fed’s decision on the new rate range, the rate reached $1.1740, although on the day of the Fed Committee’s vote (December 10) it was at $1.1628. Thus, the dollar is testing new levels. Some Western analysts even believe that a move to $1.1800 and even further is likely.
While the United States is going through stages of monetary policy easing, the European Central Bank continues to maintain a conservative stance. ECB President Christine Lagarde noted that the eurozone economy has demonstrated resilience in the face of geopolitical and economic shocks. However, she emphasized that deeper structural reforms are needed to unlock its full potential, adding that monetary policy alone cannot achieve this goal.
As the Fed’s stance softens and the ECB’s rates remain stable, the rate differential is narrowing in favor of the euro. Therefore, traders now see less downside risk for the euro and expect the EUR/USD pair to remain above $1.1650. The contrast between the Fed’s rates and the ECB’s signals that it will not cut rates stimulates capital outflows to European assets and supports the euro well on the horizon for the next month.
Domestic Ukrainian context
In the first half of December, the hryvnia remained in the range of UAH 42.26-42.33 per dollar (official exchange rate), with a short-term tendency to strengthen – on December 8, the average exchange rate on the interbank market reached the level of UAH 42.03 per dollar, although later in December the exchange rate still returned to above UAH 42.2 per dollar.
In December, the hryvnia was supported by several important factors. One of the most important is the increase in international reserves: according to preliminary NBU data, as of December 1, reserves amounted to $54.748 billion. Thus, in November, reserves grew by 10.6%. As explained by the NBU, this dynamics is due to the largest amount of receipts from international partners since the beginning of the year, which exceeded the NBU’s net sale of foreign currency and the country’s debt payments in foreign currency. Currently, the volume of international reserves is sufficient to maintain the stability of the foreign exchange market and provides funding for 5.6 months of future imports.
In November, the NBU received $8.147 billion in foreign currency from partners, of which the largest amount ($6.880 billion) came from the EU under the G7 ERA initiative and the Ukraine Facility. In November, the NBU’s sales of foreign currency on the market decreased compared to October: the NBU sold USD 2.728 billion on the foreign exchange market and bought back USD 1.3 million to the reserves, so the NBU’s net sales of foreign currency in November amounted to USD 2.727 billion.
The NBU discount rate remained unchanged: On December 11, the NBU informed that it had left the rate at 15.5% per annum. The NBU explained that the decision was necessary to maintain the attractiveness of hryvnia instruments, the stability of the foreign exchange market, and control of expectations in order to bring inflation to the 5% target on the policy horizon.
So far, the situation is such that the hryvnia should not experience any sharp movements, but in the future (as early as 2026), the hryvnia will be under pressure from a number of factors, including possible difficulties with foreign aid (and a reduction in the amount of such aid). In addition, other risk factors that could affect the devaluation trend include an increase in budget spending on the defense sector, a labor shortage in the labor market, complications in the functioning of the energy sector amid constant missile and drone attacks, and new waves of migration abroad.
In total, the NBU’s baseline scenario for 2026 assumes that Ukraine will receive more than $45 billion in international financial assistance. But, as NBU Governor Andriy Pyshnyi explained, further support from international partners, including cooperation with the International Monetary Fund, has a huge impact on the prospects. Importantly, in late November, the IMF mission and the Ukrainian authorities reached a staff-level agreement on a new four-year program under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) with potential access to $8.1 billion in funding. The new agreement provides for a set of fiscal and monetary policy measures to form the basis of the program, with the main objectives of the program being to maintain macroeconomic stability, restore debt and external sustainability, fight corruption, and improve governance.
US dollar exchange rate: dynamics and analysis
General characteristics of market behavior
In the first half of December, the US dollar moved in a variety of directions on the Ukrainian market, but the prevailing trend was toward strengthening the dollar and, consequently, weakening the hryvnia.
During the first two weeks of December, the exchange rate fluctuated as follows: at the beginning of the month, the interbank sale rate was at 42.37 UAH/$, then on December 8, the hryvnia strengthened to 42.02 UAH/$, and later in December, the hryvnia lost ground: the exchange rate reached 42.43 UAH/$, and then fell back to 42.2 UAH/$.
In the first half of December, the average purchase rate was in the range of 41.9-42.10 UAH/$ on the cash market, and the sale rate was in the range of 42.35-42.55 UAH/$. At bank cash desks, the spread between the buy and sell rates remained unchanged compared to November and amounted to UAH 0.45-0.6 per dollar as of mid-December.
Key factors of influence
Forecast.
Euro exchange rate: dynamics and analysis
General characteristics of market behavior
In the first half of December, the euro steadily strengthened on the Ukrainian market: within two weeks, the official euro exchange rate moved from 48.89 UAH/€ to 49.51 UAH/€.
Key observations
Ø Exchange rate geometry:
o The selling rate for cash euros was initially around 49.45-49.50 UAH/€. However, by mid-December, the euro had strengthened, and the average selling rate for euros on the cash market reached 49.8 UAH/€. This reflects the trend on the interbank market, where at the beginning of the month the selling rate was at 49.28 UAH/€, and in the middle of the month it was 49.50 UAH/€.
Ø Supply and demand:
o Demand for euros remained at a fairly high level, especially from businesses making payments to European sellers in euros. The cash market is also actively buying euros, expecting the euro to continue to strengthen in 2026.
o The spread between the euro’s bid and ask rates on the cash market remained unchanged in December and remained high, ranging from UAH 0.5 to 1 per euro.
Key factors of influence
Forecast.
Recommendations: dollar or euro – buy, sell or wait?
USD/UAH
The US dollar is under pressure from the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, as well as uncertainty about the next stages of key policy rate cuts in 2026. The US economy is currently facing significant economic shocks, including tariffs, labor shortages due to Donald Trump’s immigration restrictions, and large-scale government spending cuts. For the Fed, the level of predictability is complicated by the lack of comprehensive price and labor market data, which was suspended during the government shutdown.
In December and early January, markets expect the dollar to weaken further, with a realistic range of $1.1690-1.1810.
For Ukrainian investors, the dollar will remain the key currency of accumulation, and purchases should be considered as part of a medium- and long-term strategy.
EUR/UAH
The euro has been strengthening on the Ukrainian market in December, but the likelihood of sharp fluctuations and short-term pullbacks remains. However, the euro will maintain an uptrend in the near future due to the global market trend of strengthening against the dollar. The strategy of attracting euro currency to investors’ portfolios should be balanced, and although strategically the euro has high growth potential, high exchange rate volatility may affect future returns in case of a decision to exit euro investments urgently.
Overall strategy
The gradual reduction of the US Federal Reserve’s key policy rate is leading to a weaker dollar, and the Fed Committee’s further decisions on the rate level will be influenced by price and labor market data in the US. The euro is steadily strengthening against the backdrop of the Fed’s decisions and the absence of drastic changes in the policy of the European Central Bank, which is still maintaining the current level of rates.
Given global trends, investors should choose the dollar as a key savings currency in their medium- and long-term strategy, as even a weakening of the currency does not affect the liquidity of dollar savings. Savings in euros should be used for short positions and as a portfolio diversification when forming a long-term currency program.
The key forecasts for the foreign exchange market in Ukraine are related to the devaluation of the hryvnia in 2026. This means stable demand for the dollar and frequent spikes in peak demand for the euro. Given the high risks associated with the continuation of hostilities, the difficult energy situation, a decline in economic activity, problems in the labor market, and difficult predictability of funds from partners next year, demand for the dollar will grow in the short term. The National Bank of Ukraine will stick to its exchange rate flexibility strategy, which will mean no sharp devaluation swings and timely smoothing of fluctuations. The upcoming weakening of the hryvnia will allow investors to build a reliable portfolio of foreign currency savings in liquid foreign currencies, with the dollar and euro remaining the main currencies.
This material has been prepared by analysts of the international multiservice FinTech product platform KYT Group and reflects their expert, analytical professional judgment. The information presented in this review is for informational purposes only and cannot be considered as a recommendation for action.
The Company and its analysts make no representations and assume no liability for any consequences arising from the use of this information. All information is provided “as is” without any further warranty of completeness, obligation to be timely or to be updated or supplemented.
Users of this material should make their own risk assessment and informed decisions based on their own evaluation and analysis of the situation from various available sources that they consider to be sufficiently qualified. We recommend that you consult an independent financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
REFERENCE
KYT Group is an international multiservice marketplace FinTech product platform that provides financial companies with access to services for promoting their services, as well as advertising and consulting services.
License of the National Bank of Ukraine for conducting currency transactions (trade in currency values in cash) No. 39806926 dated 06.06.2024.
Issue No. 2 – November 2025
The purpose of this review is to provide an analysis of the current situation on the Ukrainian currency market and a forecast of the hryvnia exchange rate against key currencies based on current data. We consider the current conditions, market dynamics, key influencing factors and likely scenarios for future developments.
Analysis of the current situation on the currency market
International context
In the second half of November, expectations intensified on the international currency market regarding a future reduction in the Fed’s rate at the Fed Committee meeting on 9-10 December. In addition, at the end of the month, Fed Vice Chair and New York Federal Reserve Bank President Williams said that the Fed could cut rates ‘in the near term’ without jeopardising its inflation target.
Investors are now focusing on the Fed’s upcoming decision on the key rate. It is expected that a decision to cut the rate by 25 basis points will be made at the December meeting. This will be influenced, in particular, by new US statistics showing a decline in applications for state unemployment benefits. However, the new data failed to strengthen the US currency, and expectations of a decision to appoint a new Fed chair who will pursue a more accommodative policy are also weighing on the dollar. Currently, the media is reporting that the leading candidate for the post is White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett, who has previously stated that interest rates should be lower than they are under current Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.
November 2025 brought nothing unexpected for the dollar: there were minor fluctuations throughout the month, with the US currency weakening to a low of 1.1648 in the middle of the month. At the end of November, the market reached a certain equilibrium, and the exchange rate reached 1.1584, effectively returning to its level on 31 October.
It is important to note that the situation with the expected rate cut also affects other markets. For example, gold traded at $4,186 per ounce at the end of November, and in January-November this year, the growth rate exceeded 53%. The prospect of another round of monetary policy easing in the US is fuelling demand for precious metals. US tariff policy had the least impact on the dollar in November, as the trade truce between the US and China continues.
Meanwhile, the euro is expected to remain stable and strengthen slightly against the dollar in the near future amid the upcoming Fed meeting and the likely decision on the next stage of easing. A cut in the key rate usually weakens the dollar somewhat, i.e. it strengthens the euro. However, the European Union is closely monitoring the situation in the banking sector: the European Central Bank recently called on lenders to maintain dollar liquidity buffers, highlighting concerns about financial stability that could negatively affect risk sentiment. However, the eurozone economy is currently showing decent growth, thanks in particular to the steady development of the services sector, so there is cautious optimism in Europe that risks capable of undermining the stability of the euro will be avoided.
Internal Ukrainian context
Throughout November, the Ukrainian currency market was dominated by a devaluation trend, and while at the beginning of November the official NBU exchange rate was 41.89 hryvnia per dollar, by the end of the last week of the month it was already 42.30 hryvnia per dollar. The exchange rate did not change abruptly, with a certain smoothness in the devaluation fluctuations, and the National Bank was present on the interbank market with foreign currency offers. However, the level of interventions did not increase significantly compared to the previous month: during the period from 3 to 21 November, the NBU sold $1.925 billion on the market (for comparison, during the last three weeks of October, the volume of interventions amounted to $1.935 billion). Thus, the volume of currency sales by the NBU in October and, ultimately, in November should be almost the same (last month, the volume of NBU interventions amounted to about $3 billion).
Of course, there were also devaluation movements in the cash market in November. While at the beginning of November the average selling rate in the cash market was 42.14 UAH/USD, at the end of the month it was 42.56 UAH/USD.
In Ukraine, demand for foreign currency remains high due to increased imports caused by the need to repair energy facilities damaged by Russian attacks, as well as expectations among both businesses and the population of further devaluation of the national currency. The National Bank of Ukraine is curbing sharp fluctuations with interventions, but is trying not to inject too much into the market, as reserves are still high (49.5 billion dollars at the beginning of November) and must remain so to ensure macro-financial stability.
An important event in November for Ukraine was the announcement that the International Monetary Fund mission and the Ukrainian authorities had reached a staff-level agreement on a new four-year programme under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) with potential access to financing of $8.1 billion. The new agreement provides for a set of fiscal and monetary policy measures that will form the basis of the programme. The main objectives are to support macroeconomic stability, restore debt and external sustainability, fight corruption, and improve governance. According to the IMF statement, the NBU commits to reducing inflation to a target level of 5% over its three-year policy horizon, while allowing greater exchange rate flexibility to adjust to fundamentals and strengthening the role of the exchange rate as a shock absorber, which will also help maintain adequate central bank foreign exchange reserves. This means that further IMF financing is clearly tied to the devaluation trend, and therefore expectations of a weakening hryvnia in the medium term are entirely justified.
Among the risks that will put pressure on the exchange rate, in addition to geopolitical issues and the difficult situation in the energy sector, there is also the rather vague prospect of financing the budget gap (the difference between state budget revenues and expenditures in 2026). In fact, this will require at least $45 billion in external financing, but the sources of some of these funds are still unknown.
US dollar exchange rate: dynamics and analysis
General characteristics of market behaviour
In November, the US dollar strengthened on the Ukrainian market, and a clear devaluation trend remained.
During November, the exchange rate changed as follows: on the interbank market, the rate rose from 41.01 UAH/USD to 42.25 UAH/USD, and the official NBU rate rose from 41.89 to 42.19 UAH/USD. Interestingly, at the end of the month, the NBU decided to suddenly strengthen the hryvnia: on 27 November, the official exchange rate was 42.30 UAH/USD, and on 28 November, it was 42.19 UAH/USD. On Thursday, 27 November, the interbank market opened with a selling rate of 42.26 UAH/USD, and by the evening, the market closed at 42.22–42.25 UAH/USD. On Friday, 28 November, American banks are closed (as it is the day after Thanksgiving, which is a public holiday), which has a certain impact on the Ukrainian currency segment.
In November, the average purchase rate was in the range of 41.7–42.05 UAH/USD on the cash market, and the sale rate was in the range of 42.15–42.48 UAH/USD. At bank cash desks, the spread between the buying and selling rates is no longer growing; on the contrary, there is a tendency for the spread to narrow: at large retail banks at the end of November, it was 0.45–0.6 UAH/USD.
Key influencing factors
Forecast
Euro exchange rate: dynamics and analysis
General characteristics of market behaviour
The euro exchange rate on the Ukrainian market strengthened gradually in November: over two weeks, the official euro exchange rate shifted from UAH 48.51/EUR to UAH 48.87/EUR. The fluctuations were mild and did not cause panic reactions either on the interbank or cash markets.
Key observations
Ø Exchange rate geometry:
o The euro selling rate at the beginning of November was around 48.52 UAH/EUR. In the second ten days of the month, there was a clear trend towards the strengthening of the euro, with the exchange rate reaching 48.91 UAH/EUR on 25 November, followed by a slight pullback to 48.87 UAH/EUR.
Ø Supply and demand:
o Demand for cash euros remains fairly high, but is losing out to demand for US dollars due to more active fluctuations and the weak predictability of the euro’s trajectory.
o The spread between the buying and selling rates of the euro on the cash market remains high: 0.6–1 UAH/EUR in large banks.
Key influencing factors
Forecast
Recommendations: dollar or euro — buy, sell or wait?
USD/UAH
The US dollar is under pressure from economic activity data and ahead of the Fed Committee meeting. According to new data, economic activity in the US has remained virtually unchanged in recent weeks, although employment has been weaker in about half of the 12 Fed districts and consumer spending has declined, heightening concerns about the labour market. The US is also experiencing a freeze on new hiring and is only recruiting new staff to replace those who have left. This situation in the labour market is motivating the Fed to take further steps to ease monetary policy, and interest rate futures markets are already reflecting a high probability of another 0.25% cut in borrowing costs at the Fed meeting on 9-10 December.
In December, the dollar may strengthen if it is supported by new statistical data and in the absence of new risk factors. The dollar is likely to trade in the 1.1470–1.1680 range.
However, for investors, the dollar remains an important haven for solid savings, so investors should consider purchasing the American currency for various strategies.
In Ukraine, the dollar will only strengthen, and dollar savings will continue to serve as a solid basis for currency strategy, both in the short and medium to long term.
EUR/UAH
The euro is actively strengthening on the Ukrainian market, although short-term exchange rate rollbacks are likely, but the overall trend is for the euro to appreciate against the backdrop of a gradual strategy of weakening the hryvnia. The euro in the portfolio will help diversify part of the currency savings, as well as carry out short-term speculative transactions during periods of rapid peak exchange rate changes. There are no strategic reasons to get rid of the euro from portfolios. This means continuing to buy, although it is possible to exit some euro investments if this is part of the investor’s updated strategy.
Overall strategy
Expectations of a Fed rate cut in December and data on the rather unstable state of the US labour market are affecting the global currency market and leading to a fall in the US dollar. The euro is strengthening thanks to the absence of sharp changes in the ECB’s monetary policy and data on inflation and economic development in the eurozone.
In the medium term, investors would be wise to focus on the dollar as the base currency for savings, while holding on to the euro for a likely short position, when it will be possible to exit investments with maximum profit due to sharp exchange rate fluctuations. The forecast strengthening of the euro due to the unstable situation in the US and the Fed’s policy may provide additional incentives to buy the euro within the framework of a medium-term investment programme.
In Ukraine, further devaluation of the national currency is expected, which will increase demand for dollars and euros on the cash market. Demand for currency is also being driven by expectations of a difficult winter and further large-scale shelling of major cities and energy facilities by the aggressor. The weakening of the hryvnia gives investors room to form their savings strategy in foreign currencies, with the dollar and euro as the base currencies. A well-thought-out and cautious investment strategy will allow you to form a stable and profitable currency portfolio that is protected from the risks of exchange rate volatility.
This material has been prepared by analysts at the international multi-service FinTech platform KYT Group and reflects their expert, analytical and professional judgement. The information presented in this review is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation for action.
The company and its analysts make no representations and assume no responsibility for any consequences arising from the use of this information. All information is provided ‘as is’ without any additional guarantees of completeness, obligations of timeliness or updating or supplementation.
Users of this material should independently assess the risks and make informed decisions based on their own assessment and analysis of the situation from various available sources that they themselves consider sufficiently qualified. Before making any investment decisions, we recommend consulting with an independent financial advisor.
REFERENCE
KYT Group is an international multi-service FinTech marketplace platform that provides financial companies with access to services for promoting their services, as well as advertising and consulting services.
Issue No. 1 – November 2025
The purpose of this review is to provide an analysis of the current situation in the Ukrainian currency market and forecast the hryvnia exchange rate against key currencies based on the latest data. We analyze current conditions, market dynamics, key influencing factors, and likely scenarios.
Analysis of the current situation on the currency market
International context
The global FX market was influenced by several important factors in the first half of November. The first was the October Fed rate cut by 25 basis points to the range of 3.75-4%. The second was the expectation of fresh statistics on the US labor market and the resumption of the US government’s work. In addition, investors and currency fluctuations in the EUR/USD pair were influenced by expectations of the next step of the Fed Committee – another key rate cut is expected in December.
While the rate cut at the end of October had already been factored into exchange rate fluctuations, labor market data worried investors. And, as it turned out, for good reason. At a briefing on October 29, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that conditions in the US labor market were cooling. In November, this was also confirmed by statistics: according to ADP, American companies cut more than 11,000 jobs every week until the end of October, indicating a weakening labor market. Although preliminary data showed that in October, a total of 42 thousand new jobs were created in the United States compared to September, ADP noted that in the second half of October, the labor market had difficulty creating jobs. This leads analysts and traders to believe that the Fed will have to make another key policy rate cut in December.
The above factors influenced the dollar’s exchange rate behavior, which in the first half of November initially gained ground on positive expectations and reached 1.1473 on November 5, but then began to pull back towards a weaker dollar, and as of November 14, the rate actually returned to the level it was at on the eve of the Fed Committee meeting in October – 1.1625. New labor market statistics, negative expectations of further market cooling due to government layoffs, and the forecast of further Fed rate cuts played against the dollar.
Another factor influencing the currency market is the US-China relationship, but it is not stressful yet. On November 10, China announced that it was fulfilling its promise to combat chemicals that can be used to produce fentanyl, which was a key issue for US President Donald Trump during his talks with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in October. China has already announced new restrictions on the export of 13 chemicals to the United States, Canada, and Mexico. Improved relations between the US and China will definitely have a positive impact on the US dollar.
Meanwhile, in mid-November, the euro demonstrated a strengthening, in part due to the conservative policy of the European Central Bank, which left rates unchanged at the end of October, stating that inflation in the eurozone remained under control. All three key interest rates were kept at the same level. According to the ECB, inflation in the euro area remains close to the medium-term target of 2%. The ECB Governing Council’s overall assessment of the inflation outlook has not changed. However, the EU is talking about global challenges and uncertainty due to tariffs and geopolitical tensions. These factors remain the main risks to the euro area economy at the end of 2025.
Domestic Ukrainian context
In early November, exchange rate fluctuations were noticeable in the Ukrainian currency market, with the trend of devaluation of the national currency continuing. However, the National Bank of Ukraine’s participation in interventions has a stabilizing effect. Since the beginning of November, the hryvnia has been gradually weakening against the dollar: as of November 1, the official exchange rate was at UAH 41.97 per dollar, and as of November 14, it was at UAH 42.06 per dollar. There are also fluctuations in the cash market, but they are rather insignificant: in mid-November, the average selling rate was 42.30 UAH/USD, while at the beginning of the month it was 42.14 UAH/USD.
Demand for foreign currency continues to be high. Demand growth was also recorded in October. According to the NBU, this applied to both the interbank foreign exchange market and the cash segment. In total, last month the NBU increased its interventions in the interbank market by 27.3% or USD 625.3 million to USD 2.915 billion. According to the regulator, in October the population purchased $162 million more in cash than in September, bringing the total amount of foreign currency purchases to $1.458 billion.
If we analyze the net purchase of foreign currency by households, the amount in October is twice as much as in September – $0.75 billion last month versus $0.38 billion in September. This trend is quite expected. It is likely to continue in November, as the domestic situation in the country remains tense due to regular attacks by the Russian Federation, and the schedules of power outages caused by enemy attacks add to the need to purchase imported equipment, which may put pressure on the demand for foreign currency on the interbank market, and to the formation of household savings, which is reflected in the cash segment.
In the challenging conditions of the new heating season, when the energy sector is under the aggressor’s sights, Ukraine needs additional funds, which should also support macrofinancial stability. The government has announced good news in this regard. We are talking about EUR 5.9 billion from the European Union: EUR 4.1 billion came under the ERA Loans mechanism, the last tranche of the EUR 18 billion program financed from the proceeds of frozen Russian assets. Ukraine received another EUR 1.8 billion under the Ukraine Facility program.
As for the NBU’s reserves, Ukraine’s international reserves amounted to USD 49.516 billion at the beginning of November, and they grew by 6.4% in October. The growth was primarily driven by new inflows from international partners, which exceeded the NBU’s net sales of foreign currency and the country’s foreign currency debt payments. Thus, the situation with reserves does not raise any questions at the moment, and the NBU has enough funds to support the foreign exchange market for a long time and to intervene to smooth out exchange rate fluctuations.
US dollar exchange rate: dynamics and analysis
General characteristics of market behavior
November’s fluctuations in the Ukrainian currency market have been slow: the US dollar has been strengthening, but without sharp movements and under the control of the NBU.
Over the past two weeks, the exchange rate has changed as follows: the average buying rate has increased from 41.61 UAH/$ to 41.8 UAH/$, the selling rate from 42.19 UAH/$ to 42.25 UAH/$, and the official NBU rate from 41.97 UAH/$ to 42.06 UAH/$.
In the first half of November, the buying rate was in the range of UAH 41.66-41.82/$ on the cash market (weighted average rate), and the selling rate was in the range of UAH 42.05-42.2/$. The spread between the buying and selling rates is gradually increasing at the banks’ cash desks: in large retail banks, it amounted to UAH 0.5-0.6 per dollar in mid-November.
Key factors of influence
Forecast.
Euro exchange rate: dynamics and analysis
General characteristics of market behavior
The euro grew steadily stronger on the Ukrainian market in the first half of November: within two weeks, the official euro exchange rate moved from 48.51 UAH/€ to 48.65 UAH/€.
Key observations
Ø Exchange rate geometry:
o The euro’s selling rate in the first week of November remained almost unchanged, hovering around 48.52 UAH/€. However, after November 10, a trend toward a stronger euro was clearly evident.
o The euro’s buying rate continues to move in the opposite direction to the selling rate, and the spread between bank rates is growing, reaching UAH 0.9-1 per euro as of mid-November.
Ø Supply and demand:
o The demand for cash euros is growing in parallel with the growth in demand for the dollar: according to the NBU, purchases of cash euros by households in October increased by 202.9 million to USD 724.6 million in dollar terms, while sales decreased by 6.1 million to the equivalent of USD 314.1 million.
o The continued growth of the spread between buying and selling euros gives financial institutions the opportunity to hedge against a possible sharp change in the trajectory of the euro, which is characterized by high volatility in both the international and Ukrainian markets.
Key factors of influence
Forecast.
Recommendations: dollar or euro – buy, sell, or wait?
USD/UAH
The strengthening of the dollar, which the markets have been anticipating due to the Fed’s transparent policy and optimistic expectations for the US economy, is gradually giving way to some disappointment as fresh statistics are released. Even the easing of tariff tensions does not help the dollar, which, after a short-term jump to 1.1479 in early November, returned to 1.1630 in the middle of the month.
Despite global skepticism about further dollar gains, the dollar will remain the main currency in the savings structure for investors, which means that dollar purchases continue to be part of both long-term and short-term investment strategies.
Since Ukraine has a strong devaluation trend, dollar savings will serve as the basis for future decisions by investors to exit some dollar investments with a clear profit. However, this is a long-term strategy, and possible short-term depreciation of the dollar to the level of 41.79-41.91 UAH/$ will serve as a signal for the next tranche of purchases of the US currency.
EUR/UAH
Like the dollar, the euro is showing a tendency to strengthen on the Ukrainian market. Traditionally, however, the level of volatility of the euro, coupled with high spreads, does not allow one to count on stable, calculated investment income. However, in order to diversify part of their savings, investors can focus on a plan that includes buying tranches of euros at times of a clear depreciation. It is advisable to keep euros in the portfolio, but not more than 35% of all savings in foreign currencies. November is the time to buy euros, not sell them.
Overall strategy
Expectations of a Fed key rate cut and the latest US labor market data are contributing to a weaker US currency. Meanwhile, the ECB’s conservative stance and the EU’s hopes for an acceleration in the eurozone’s economic development are significantly supporting the euro.
In the near future, investors should choose the dollar as their savings base, but not ignore the euro, which, against the backdrop of the Fed’s policy and the lack of positive signals about the revitalization of the US labor market, may well be part of a profitable investment strategy.
In November, expectations of further hryvnia depreciation prevail, allowing investors to plan both a medium- and long-term strategy to strengthen their foreign currency savings. The main rule: no sudden movements, but steadily. The dollar is an important underlying asset that forms a reliable, low-risk portfolio. The euro is an opportunity to play on exchange rate fluctuations over the next 3-4 months. Both currencies are currently advisable to buy for different investment strategies, carefully analyzing exchange rate movements and understanding the likely forecast exchange rate fluctuations.
This material has been prepared by analysts of the international multiservice FinTech product platform KYT Group and reflects their expert, analytical professional judgment. The information presented in this review is for informational purposes only and cannot be considered as a recommendation for action.
The Company and its analysts make no representations and assume no liability for any consequences arising from the use of this information. All information is provided “as is” without any additional warranties of completeness, obligations of timeliness or to update or supplement.
Users of this material should make their own risk assessment and informed decisions based on their own evaluation and analysis of the situation from various available sources that they consider to be sufficiently qualified. We recommend that you consult an independent financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
REFERENCE
KYT Group is an international multi-service marketplace FinTech product platform that provides financial companies with access to services for promoting their services, as well as advertising and consulting services.
