In July, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) increased its sales of foreign currency on the interbank market by $873.6 million, or 30.9%, to $3.69 billion, according to statistics on the regulator’s website.
According to the statistics, the National Bank’s purchases of foreign currency in July fell to $0.83 million from $1.2 million in June, and last week the NBU’s foreign exchange interventions decreased by $171.9 million, or 21.2%, to $639.6 million compared to the previous week.
In July, the official hryvnia to dollar exchange rate strengthened from 41.7788 UAH/$1 to 41.7662 UAH/$1.
In the cash market, the hryvnia exchange rate strengthened by almost 13 kopecks over the month: buying at around 41.48 UAH/$1, selling at 41.58 UAH/$1.
“In July, the dollar to hryvnia exchange rate continued to demonstrate high stability with insignificant intraday volatility that did not turn into trend movements,” said experts from KYT Group, a major participant in the cash foreign exchange market.
They point out that the exchange rate fluctuations do not exceed 0.2%, which indicates an extremely restrained market reaction – especially given the announcement of important macroeconomic signals.
In their opinion, in the short term (one to three weeks), the corridor of 41.40-42.10 UAH/$ will remain in place in the absence of external shocks or surges in demand from importers.
KYT Group analysts expect that in the medium term (up to three months) the exchange rate may gradually shift to 42.30-42.80 UAH/$ in the face of the traditional growth in budget expenditures in the second half of the year, increased imports, or the implementation of the expected September Fed rate cut, which will lead to a correction of the dollar.
In the long term (over six months), experts predict a controlled devaluation trend. According to the baseline scenario, the exchange rate is expected to be in the range of UAH 43.00-44.50/$, provided that the current level of international support, stable reserves, and no unexpected shocks, especially those of a non-economic nature, are maintained.
Last week, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) increased its sales of foreign currency on the interbank market by $228.1 million, or 33.6%, to $906.6 million, according to statistics on the regulator’s website.
According to the statistics, this is the largest volume of currency sales since mid-February 2025, when the regulator sold a record $1191.30 million since the beginning of the year.
The data that the NBU has published during this time show that last week the balance of foreign exchange interventions was negative almost every day, except for Monday, when it amounted to $1.38 million. Already on Tuesday, the negative balance was recorded at $11.5 million, on Wednesday – $14.5 million, and on Thursday – $6.8 million.
The official hryvnia exchange rate against the dollar strengthened from 41.7842 UAH/$1 at the beginning of the week to 41.7514 UAH/$1 at the end.
On the cash market, the hryvnia strengthened by 5 kopecks over the week: buying to about 41.61 UAH/$1, and selling to about 41.70 UAH/$1.
“In July, the dollar to hryvnia exchange rate continued to demonstrate stability with a slight correction in a narrow range,” said experts from KYT Group, a major participant in the cash foreign exchange market .
In their opinion, in the short term (two to four weeks), the corridor of UAH 41.40-42.10/$ will remain in place in the absence of external shocks or surges in demand from importers.
KYT Group analysts predict that in the medium term (two to four months), the hryvnia exchange rate may gradually depreciate to 42.20-42.80 UAH/$ in the event of increased domestic budget spending, seasonal demand for the currency, or increased devaluation expectations among households and businesses.
In the long term (more than six months), experts do not expect a reduction in external financial support, so the most likely scenario is a gradual controlled devaluation of the hryvnia to 43.00-44.50 UAH/$. At the same time, the NBU’s exchange rate policy and the government’s signals on the macroeconomic course for 2026 may remain important deterrents.
https://interfax.com.ua/news/economic/1089251.html
KYT Group, one of the leaders in the currency exchange and financial services market in Ukraine, continues to dynamically expand its network in key cities of the country with high economic activity.
In Dnipro, the 99th branch of the KYT Group brand network, which has a national coverage and covers 31 settlements of Ukraine: from large metropolitan areas to cities with high economic activity, welcomes its first customers.
This is the sixth branch directly in Dnipro city and the ninth within the region, where one branch operates in Kamianske and two more in Kryvyi Rih. Expansion of KYT Group network presence in Dnipro is a response to the consistently high demand among the city and region residents for transparent quality service and favorable conditions from the national leader in the field of currency exchange.
The new exchange office is located at 90 Nauky Avenue, Dnipro, in a convenient location with active pedestrian traffic. The outlet adheres to the standard working hours for the network in all locations of its presence – from 09:00 to 19:00 seven days a week. Additional information about courses and services is available on the regional website of the KYT Group brand network kyt-obmin.dp.ua, by calling the customer support number of Dnipro city and region 0 800 33 20 57 or on the official telegram channel of the KYT Group network in the region @obmenka_dneprua.
Dnipro city is one of the strategic regions of presence of the KYT Group network of currency exchange offices as one of the largest industrial and economic centers of Ukraine.
Clients of the network in Dnipro and the region, as well as throughout the country, have access to key advantages and service options
Ø online fixing of the exchange rate for 60 minutes via the official website, telegram channel or the company’s customer support service – a unique solution for the Ukrainian market that allows you to plan an exchange in advance at the most favorable terms even in the face of a fluctuating exchange rate;
Ø special conditions for wholesale currency exchange – convenient for clients with large volumes of transactions seeking the most favorable offer.
The geographical expansion of KYT Group’s presence is aimed at providing Ukrainians with even wider access to services that meet the highest industry standards.
The new branch of the network in Dnipro city is decorated in the updated visual identity of the brand. This is part of the large-scale rebranding of KYT Group, which emphasizes the position of an innovative leader in the non-banking financial services market, which is constantly working to improve services and digital infrastructure and enhance customer experience, while remaining a reliable partner for Ukrainians in the field of foreign exchange transactions.
During 2024-2025, the KYT Group network is actively investing in expanding its geographical presence as a national leader in the currency exchange segment. New branches of the network were previously opened in Chernivtsi, Ivano-Frankivsk, Zhytomyr, Kamianske, Uman, Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovs’k and Kyiv regions.
REFERENCE
KYT Group is an international multiservice product-based FinTech platform with currency exchange as its flagship business. KYT Group is one of the largest operators of this segment in the Ukrainian financial market. According to data of the National Bank of Ukraine, KYT Group’s currency exchange network ranks first in the industry ranking in terms of taxes paid, capital, and business success in terms of financial results. The network of 98 exchange offices of KYT Group covers 31 of the largest cities of Ukraine and settlements with high business and economic activity. The company’s operations comply with the NBU’s regulatory requirements.
KYT Group’s long-term efforts to achieve leadership positions, improve services, customer and IT infrastructure have been recognized by the prestigious Banker Awards 2024 in the nomination “ Reliable Technology Partner for Exchange Operations”, as well as the award “Financial Market Leader” among non-bank financial institutions according to the “TOP-100. Ratings of the largest”.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) last week, almost in the absence of currency purchases, reduced its sale on the interbank market by $213.5 million, or 24.4% – to $661.1 million. According to the National Bank’s data on its website, the cash market recorded its first surplus of $2.8 million over the weekend and Monday, but in the following days dollar purchases again exceeded sales by $20-33 million daily.
The official hryvnia exchange rate fell slightly over the week – from 41.6409 UAH/$1 to 41.7341 UAH/$1, while due to the weakening of the dollar on the international market, the euro rose in price more strongly – from 48.7823 UAH/EUR1 to 49.1210 UAH/EUR1, and on July 2 reached a new record – 49.4093 UAH/EUR1.
In the cash market, the dollar appreciated by only 2 copecks on the results of the week. – to 41.6/41.7 UAH/$1, while the euro appreciated by up to 10 copecks. – 49.35/49.53 UAH/EUR1.
“Short-term (1-3 weeks) is likely to fluctuate within the range of 41.30-42.00 UAH/$1 without going beyond 42.10 UAH/$ in the absence of external shocks or short-term situational surges”, – predict experts of a major participant of the cash currency exchange market “KYT Group”.
In their opinion, medium-term (2-4 months) return to the levels of UAH 42.00-42.50/$1 is possible in case of strengthening of import demand, increase of budget payments or realization of risks with financing or change of expectations and moods of the population and market operators.
As for the euro, KYT Group believes that in the short term, taking into account external factors and stable demand, the euro exchange rate may head towards the corridor of UAH 49.00-49.50/EUR1 with a possible breakthrough to UAH 50.00/EUR1, if it receives additional external drivers.
Medium-term, the European currency is likely to go above UAH 50.00/EUR1, especially if the euro remains at a global high and the current international drivers of its growth are maintained.
“Keep your focus on the euro. If your business model provides for expenses or revenues in euro, it is worthwhile to revise the structure of currency risk already now, to put a margin of safety in contracts or to test possible scenarios of the exchange rate breakout above UAH 50/EUR1”, – the company believes.
Source: https://interfax.com.ua/news/projects/1083979.html
Issue #2 – June 2025
The purpose of this review is to provide an analysis of the current situation on the Ukrainian currency market and a forecast of the hryvnia exchange rate against key currencies based on the latest data. We analyze current conditions, market dynamics, key influencing factors, and likely scenarios.
Analysis of the current situation on the Ukrainian currency market
Ukraine’s foreign exchange market is entering the second half of the year amid relative stability in the domestic market and growing turbulence in the external market.
The current dynamics of the foreign exchange market is shaped by both external and internal factors that have the potential to change the exchange rate trajectory in the near future. The main topics of late June were the global weakness of the dollar, the emergence of new areas of tension on the global map, and the domestic agenda included the activation of the cash market in Ukraine and cautious currency liberalization, which continues under the control of the NBU.
Global context
Global markets are showing a strengthening of the euro amid a weakening dollar. The DXY index has reached its lowest level since 2022 – the US currency has lost more than 10% since the beginning of the year, and this drop could be the largest since the 1970s. The main trigger is political uncertainty in the United States. Rumors about Donald Trump’s intentions to replace the Fed chairman ahead of schedule and interfere with the institution’s activities have raised doubts about the independence of US monetary policy. Against this backdrop, the euro strengthened to USD 1.173, its highest level in three years, while the franc and yen also gained ground.
Although the Fed has so far refrained from changing rates, market expectations have already shifted and, accordingly, are being incorporated by market operators into exchange rate modeling and forecasting – the consensus expectation of international analysts regarding the likelihood of a rate cut at the next meeting has reached 25%.
At the same time, the ECB’s rhetoric remains cautious: the eurozone does not have enough institutional stability to challenge the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. The euro is growing mainly technically, due to the weakening of the dollar, rather than due to fundamental advantages, and strengthening its position is unfavorable for the European Union itself as an additional factor of pressure on exports.
Domestic Ukrainian context
The situation on the Ukrainian market is somewhat different. The cash segment is showing a sharp increase in demand: in May, banks brought $778 million of cash into Ukraine, which is 38% more than in April. In particular, the dollar amounted to $457 million (+52%) and the euro to $318 million (+22%). This indicates an increase in retail purchases, presumably by households that are either trying to lock in current exchange rate levels or increase savings in foreign currency amid seasonal growth in income and remittances, as well as increased devaluation expectations.
The charts show a widening of the spread between the euro buying and selling rates, which accompanies the growth of cash in the market. This signal is an indicator of nervousness in exchange offices and uncertainty about further exchange rate movements. The selling rate reacted more sensitively to the NBU’s exchange rate hike, while the buying rate grew more smoothly, indicating an imbalance in the supply/demand structure.
The National Bank of Ukraine maintains an active stance. Currency liberalization continues, but in a targeted manner, based on the principle of “new money – new conditions.” The NBU is not ready to completely lift restrictions and publicly recognizes that the risks of currency outflows are too high, which could upset the market balance.
The NBU’s readiness to ease restrictions or announcements of such actions could be a clear indicator that the ruling economic bloc has a fundamental vision of how to ensure a long-term balance in the domestic FX market, given the confirmation of further assistance from partners.
The government will soon declare its expectations for the average annual dollar exchange rate as part of the 2026 budget process.
Thus, the domestic FX market is entering a phase of searching for a new balance between controlled stability and growing external and internal risks.
US dollar exchange rate: dynamics and analysis
In June, the USD/UAH exchange rate remained generally stable with a moderate upward trend at the end of the month. Over the course of 30 days, the average purchase rate in banks increased from UAH 41.20 to UAH 41.42 per dollar, and the sale rate from UAH 41.70 to UAH 41.95 per dollar. The official NBU exchange rate rose from 41.52 to 41.69 UAH/$ over the same period.
In the shorter term, over the last week, the market showed stabilization after peaking in mid-June: the buying rate decreased from UAH 41.60-41.40/$, the selling rate was at UAH 42.15-41.95/$, and the official rate remained in the range of UAH 41.83-41.64/$. Thus, there were no sharp fluctuations and the exchange rate dynamics remained controlled.
The dynamics of spreads between buying, selling, and the official exchange rate shows that banks do not expect significant changes in the market and do not include additional premiums or risks in the exchange rate. This indicates a balance of demand for the dollar, stability in market behavior, and the absence of panic or speculative sentiment.
Key influencing factors:
Forecast:
Euro exchange rate: dynamics and analysis
In June, the euro demonstrated steady growth with minimal deviations, strengthening its position amid a weakening US dollar on global markets and continued strong demand for the euro in Ukraine. Over the past 30 days, there has been a gradual but steady increase in all key benchmarks: the average bid rate rose from ~46.80 to ~48.60 UAH/€, the ask rate from ~47.50 to almost 49.40 UAH/€, and the official NBU rate from ~46.90 to 48.48 UAH/€. The last week of June showed a certain acceleration of these dynamics.
These changes indicate a strong upward trend in the euro amid a weakening dollar, speculative interest, and a gradual recovery in import activity.
Key influencing factors:
Forecast:
In general, the euro market in Ukraine is showing a trend of active growth amid both global factors and domestic demand. The single currency is currently showing significantly higher volatility and market dynamics than the dollar.
Recommendations for businesses and investors
July will bring controlled stability to the dollar and strong growth to the euro. All of this is against the backdrop of a global tug-of-war between the dollar and the euro. In such an environment, the currency strategy should remain flexible, adaptable and designed for several different scenarios.
Liquidity is paramount. All foreign currency assets should be held in instruments with the ability to respond quickly. Time deposits, bonds without the possibility of early withdrawal, or pegging to one currency are potential traps. In the coming months, the focus should not be on yield, but on maintaining the ability to maneuver quickly.
Euro – growth has gained market momentum. After a significant rise in June, the market is still in the phase of appetite for the euro, and although some of the news has already been taken into account, volatility remains. If you need to reformat the share of this currency in your portfolio, it is best to do so gradually, when spreads narrow or pressure from global drivers decreases.
The dollar is still an important element of protection. The current stability does not mean that the dollar has lost its functions and appeal. On the contrary, it is worth keeping in your portfolio in the medium to long term: a devaluation trend for the hryvnia is likely in the fall or winter, which will reward patient dollar holders with strong nerves.
Spreads are the main marker for decisions. While spreads remain stable on the USD/UAH pair, they are widening again on the EUR/UAH pair. This indicates the return of nervousness and uncertainty: when operators put additional margin into the rate, it is a signal to take your time. When the spread is narrowing, it is time to analyze entry.
Fixed “currency benchmarks” are forbidden. The exchange rate predictability of recent weeks is not a basis for patterned actions or excessive optimism. Continue to work with 3-4 exchange rate scenarios and test how your asset structure will work in each of them.
Hryvnia – do not hold more than you need. It is still stable, but external imbalances are growing. Excessive accumulation of hryvnia funds creates risks. The hryvnia mass in excess of the operating reserve should be transferred to any of the reliable currencies or instruments linked to them.
Currency liberalization is more of a signal than an instruction to act. The NBU’s signals about easing restrictions are important, but so far they are more of a symbolic step. The real effect will be seen closer to the fall. Investors and businesses should not only follow the liberalization steps, but also keep in mind the possibility of the regulator’s reverse actions if the exchange rate scenario forces it to return to restrictions. You may want to consider investing in currency instruments that are least dependent on government actions, such as cash or stablecoins based on reliable currencies.
Keep your focus on the euro. If your business model involves expenses or revenues in euros, you should review the structure of currency risk, build a safety margin into contracts or test possible scenarios for a breakout above 50 UAH/€.
What is important in the news. First of all, the publication of indicators and exchange rate targets of the government and the NBU for 2026 as part of the budget process.
This material was prepared by the company’s analysts and reflects their expert, analytical professional judgment. The information provided in this review is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation for action.
The Company and its analysts make no representations and assume no liability for any consequences arising from the use of this information. All information is provided “as is” without any additional guarantees of completeness, obligations of timeliness or updates or additions.
Users of this material should make their own risk assessments and informed decisions based on their own evaluation and analysis of the situation from various available sources that they consider to be sufficiently qualified. We recommend that you consult an independent financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
REFERENCE
KYT Group is an international multi-service product FinTech company that has been successfully operating in the non-banking financial services market for 16 years. One of the company’s flagship activities is currency exchange. KYT Group is one of the largest operators in this segment of the Ukrainian financial market, is among the largest taxpayers, and is one of the industry leaders in terms of asset growth and equity.
More than 90 branches in 16 major cities of Ukraine are located in convenient locations for customers and have modern equipment for the convenience, security and confidentiality of each transaction.
The company’s activities comply with the regulatory requirements of the NBU. KYT Group adheres to EU standards, having a branch in Poland and planning cross-border expansion to European countries.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) reduced its currency sales on the interbank market by $53 million, or 8.4%, to $585.8 million last week, with almost no currency purchases, according to statistics on the regulator’s website. As noted by the NBU, it purchased $0.50 million worth of currency for the first time in two weeks.
Data published by the regulator during this period show that the balance was negative throughout last week, fluctuating from $11.3 million on Monday to $11.6 million on Tuesday, $13.2 million on Wednesday, and $8.5 million on Thursday.
The official hryvnia exchange rate fluctuated from 41.4018 UAH/$1 at the beginning of the week, on Wednesday the hryvnia devalued to 41.5566/$1, and by the end of the week the rate was 41.4466 UAH/$1.
On the cash market, the hryvnia exchange rate remained virtually unchanged at the end of the week: the buying rate was approximately 41.40 UAH/$1, and the selling rate was around 41.45 UAH/$1.
“The end of May 2025 is characterized by moderate stability in Ukraine’s currency market in the absence of shock changes, despite external turbulence and a complex geopolitical background. The national currency maintains a controlled exchange rate against the US dollar, while the euro/hryvnia pair continues to show increased volatility, which is associated with both global trends and internal structural shifts in the currency preferences of businesses and the population,” experts from KYT Group, a major player in the cash currency exchange market, described the situation.
In their opinion, in the medium term of 2-4 months, the dollar-hryvnia exchange rate will return to the range of 41.80-42.50 UAH/USD, provided that imports grow, domestic inflation rises, or significant signals regarding external financing are received.
In the long term, over 6+ months, KYT Group expects a likely movement towards 43.00-45.00 UAH/$1 or even higher.
The review is available at the link – https://interfax.com.ua/news/projects/1080324.html
