Issue No. 1 – October 2025
The purpose of this review is to provide an analysis of the current situation on the Ukrainian currency market and a forecast of the hryvnia exchange rate against key currencies based on the latest data. We analyze current conditions, market dynamics, key influencing factors, and likely scenarios.
Analysis of the current situation on the currency market
International context
The first half of October was significantly influenced by the US Federal Reserve’s decision to cut its key policy rate last month. On September 17, the US Federal Reserve cut its interest rate by 25 basis points to the range of 4-4.25%. The Fed aims to maximize employment and inflation at 2% in the long run. But uncertainty about the US economic outlook remains high.
Even before Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s announcement of a new range for the key policy rate, the EUR/USD pair hit a new one-year high of 1.1878, driven by expectations that the Fed would begin its easing cycle on September 17. However, shortly thereafter, fluctuations in the EUR/USD pair showed a reverse trend: in October, the dollar began to strengthen steadily against the euro, which was influenced by several important factors.
First and foremost, trade tensions between the US and China have eased significantly. On October 10, President Donald Trump announced that he would impose 100 percent tariffs on Chinese goods starting November 1. But on October 13, Trump said he would be able to resolve the conflict with Beijing and “everything will be fine.”
Secondly, the strengthening of the dollar is influenced by the situation in the EU, where the ECB does not intend to change its key policy rate yet, as it believes that current interest rate levels are stable enough to “cope with shocks.” Although investors are expecting a rate cut, last month the ECB kept its key policy rate unchanged at 2% (inflation in the EU is also around 2%).
Among the “shocks” in the EU is the unstable trade policy of Donald Trump. While the Fed, claiming uncertainty, cuts the rate, the ECB adheres to a conservative policy of key policy rate stability. However, the ECB may decide to cut the rate if the effects of the US tariffs on EU goods turn out to be more significant than expected. Another reason for a cut could be the unstable situation in France.
Oil prices remained somewhat stable in October, responding to the context of US-China relations. While the escalation of tensions between the two countries stimulated the decline, after news of the upcoming meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping on October 13, Brent crude oil futures rose 0.9% to $63.32 per barrel, and WTI futures closed up 1% to $59.49 per barrel.
The coming weeks will be determined by market expectations regarding the Fed’s decision, as it is likely that on October 28-29, during a meeting of the Fed Committee, a decision will be made on the second rate cut – by another 0.25 bp. However, this will be influenced by the situation with inflation and unemployment in the United States.
The ECB will consider possible rate changes at its meeting on October 30, but so far, a rate cut does not seem realistic. The soonest it could happen is if new statistics show the deflationary processes that the EU fears. The eurozone’s “black swans” include fiscal tightening in Germany, the destructive impact of US trade policy, price fluctuations in the oil and gas markets, and the government crisis in France.
In Ukraine, the dollar is expected to follow a clear trajectory in line with global quotes, where the EUR/USD exchange rate showed a strengthening of the dollar from 1.1724 to 1.1555 in the first two weeks of October. The euro/dollar pair is currently experiencing a lull, but with the prospect of a weaker dollar in the event of further cuts in the Fed’s key policy rate. However, the easing of Trump’s tariff stance on China is affecting sentiment: fears of escalating trade tensions are declining, which is supporting the dollar. However, markets have already taken into account a possible 25 basis point cut in October and another possible cut in December 2025, which limits the dollar’s short-term growth.
Domestic Ukrainian context
Ukraine’s FX market continues to be influenced by the National Bank of Ukraine’s controlled flexibility strategy. Reserves are growing: as of October 1, 2025, Ukraine’s international reserves amounted to $46.518 billion, which is 1.1% more (+$484 million) than a month ago.
Since the beginning of October, the hryvnia has been gradually weakening against the dollar: as of October 14, the official exchange rate reached 41.61 UAH/USD, having lost 1.14% in two weeks. The exchange rate in the cash market is following a similar rhythm, with the weighted average rate as of October 14 at UAH 41.64/USD.
In October, the interbank market saw an increase in demand, and the NBU was forced to increase its interventions. This trend is, on the one hand, seasonal, as companies’ need for foreign currency to make payments increases in the fall. On the other hand, the increased shelling of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure was an additional factor influencing the hryvnia, which logically led to an increase in imports of energy equipment.
Another trend in the fall is the growing demand for cash from the population. In September, Ukrainians bought $1.89 billion worth of cash foreign currency and sold $1.5 billion, bringing the net purchase of foreign currency by households to $382.7 million. This trend is likely to continue in October.
The war with large-scale shelling of infrastructure will remain the main factor influencing exchange rate fluctuations in Ukraine. The psychological pressure of anticipating the approach of cold weather and possible blackouts and heat outages will also play a role. The National Bank of Ukraine has the ability to smooth out fluctuations with interventions, in particular thanks to large-scale international assistance: in January-September, Ukraine received $30.6 billion, and in October, €4 billion in macro-financial assistance from the EU under the ERA Loans mechanism. The regular inflow of international aid and the NBU’s interventions remain the main factors in countering the growing pressure on the hryvnia this fall.
US dollar exchange rate: dynamics and analysis
General characteristics of market behavior
October is a mildly fluctuating month for the dollar: the US currency is strengthening both on the international and Ukrainian markets.
Over the past 14 days, the exchange rate has been gradually rising: the average buying rate has increased from UAH 41.01 to UAH 41.4, the selling rate from UAH 41.52 to UAH 41.84, and the official NBU rate from UAH 41.14 to UAH 41.61. The dollar is strengthening without any sudden movements.
In the first half of October, the buying rate was in a narrow corridor of 41.0-41.27 UAH/$ on the cash market (weighted average rate), and the selling rate was in the range of 41.4-41.65 UAH/$. At bank cash desks, the spread between the buy and sell rates increased slightly during the first two weeks of October, and in large retail banks it was UAH 0.4-0.5 per dollar.
Key factors of influence
Forecast.
Euro exchange rate: dynamics and analysis
General characteristics of market behavior
The euro on the Ukrainian market in the first half of October showed a downward trend, which is in line with the trend on the international market. On a monthly retrospective horizon, quotes fell by an average of UAH 0.50-0.60 per euro. While on October 1, the official euro exchange rate was at 48.3 UAH/€, on October 14 it was 48.13 UAH/€.
Key observations
Ø Geometry of the rates:
o The selling rate went up in spurts in the first days of October, but the main downward trend became noticeable after October 6.
o The buying rate continues to move away from the selling rate, with the spread between the rates in banks ranging from UAH 0.65-0.95 per hryvnia to EUR 0.95 per hryvnia.
Ø Supply and demand:
o Demand for cash euros in Ukraine slightly declined for the second month in a row, with euro purchases declining, but the euro is still among the main competitors of the cash dollar.
o The high average between buying and selling euros indicates both a decrease in demand and a desire of financial institutions to hedge against sharp fluctuations inherent in the euro.
Key influencing factors
Forecast.
Recommendations: dollar or euro – buy, sell, or wait?
USD/UAH
In mid-October, the dollar entered a phase of strengthening amid new signals of reconciliation between the US and China, and the market meanwhile priced in even more strengthening of the US currency in the event of the Fed’s October decision to cut its key rate once again.
Now is not the time to significantly change the structure of savings. The strategy of gradually buying dollars in small tranches remains optimal, which should provide investors with liquidity.
If the Fed leaves the rate unchanged in October, despite expectations, the dollar may strengthen, which will allow you to profitably exit some dollar investments if necessary. For a medium-term strategy, the dollar remains the basis of a currency portfolio. For speculative transactions, short positions are best suited.
EUR/UAH
The euro shows a high level of volatility in the Ukrainian market, which makes it somewhat difficult to strategically manage a portfolio in this currency. Meanwhile, according to expectations in the EU itself, the euro will probably have to strengthen, especially if the Fed decides to cut the rate. This is not a guarantee, but it does create the potential for the euro to appreciate in the medium term.
Buying euros now is a good strategy, as the exchange rate has already rolled back after the summer peaks. The euro can be a logical part of a plan to diversify your savings.
It is not advisable to sell the euro at current levels, as the forecasted growth potential is up to 48.9-51 UAH/€ in a few months.
It can be quite a challenge to play speculatively on short peaks, given the aforementioned high volatility and rather sharp peaks in exchange rate fluctuations. However, the euro can be used for speculative trading due to its high spread.
Overall strategy
High uncertainty remains in the geopolitics and economies of the United States and the European Union, and the ECB and the Fed are influenced by important economic factors and macro statistics for future rate decisions. Investors in the short term should choose the dollar as their anchor, while keeping the euro in their portfolio for diversification and to make quick money on temporary fluctuations. At the same time, it is not worth betting on one currency at a time, as a gradual strategy of buying and selling in parts brings more opportunities.
The Ukrainian market, taking into account the average exchange rate of 45.6 UAH/USD provided for in the draft state budget for 2026, as well as the reaction to the next negative signals of the approaching winter and growing threats from the aggressor country, will have a devaluation trend in the medium and long term. This will provide an additional opportunity to invest in foreign currency and increase the guaranteed safety of foreign currency savings.
This material has been prepared by analysts of the international multiservice product FinTech platform KYT Group and reflects their expert, analytical professional judgment. The information presented in this review is for informational purposes only and cannot be considered as a recommendation for action.
The Company and its analysts make no representations and assume no liability for any consequences arising from the use of this information. All information is provided “as is” without any further warranty of completeness, obligation to be timely or to be updated or supplemented.
Users of this material should make their own risk assessment and informed decisions based on their own evaluation and analysis of the situation from various available sources that they consider to be sufficiently qualified. We recommend that you consult an independent financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
REFERENCE
KYT Group is an international multi-service marketplace FinTech product platform that provides financial companies with access to services for promoting their services, as well as advertising and consulting services.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) reduced its sales of dollars on the interbank market by $227.2 million, or 40.6%, to $332.6 million last week, the lowest level since mid-April, according to statistics on the regulator’s website.
According to the NBU, it even managed to purchase $1.5 million, which is also the best result since mid-April this year.
According to the National Bank, during the first four days of last week, the average daily negative balance of currency purchases and sales by legal entities fell to $11.8 million from $49.6 million during the same period a week earlier, totaling only $47.3 million. Moreover, on September 29, for the first time in a long time, a positive balance of $49.8 million was recorded.
At the same time, on the cash market, on the contrary, there was a significant increase in currency purchases by the population, as a result of which the negative balance grew to $132.28 million from $34.6 million on Saturday-Thursday. This result is also due to the fact that, after a break of almost a month, purchases of non-cash currency exceeded sales on Tuesday-Thursday.
The official hryvnia-to-dollar exchange rate, which started last week at 41.3811 UAH/$1, strengthened to 41.1420 UAH/$1 in two days, but fell to 41.2286 UAH/$1 by the end of the week.
On the cash market, the dollar exchange rate over the past week followed the official rate, so overall it remained virtually unchanged for the week: buying was around 41.22 UAH/$1, and selling was around 41.30 UAH/$1.
“In the short term (1-2 weeks): the base corridor is 41.20-41.70 UAH/$1 with possible fluctuations and a tendency towards the upper limit. Medium term (2-3 months): 41.30-42.00 UAH/$1,” according to the forecast for the cash market exchange rate provided by experts from KYT Group, a major player in the cash currency exchange market.
They noted that spreads on the cash market remain stable (0.40-0.50 UAH/$), which reflects the controllability of the market and the absence of sharp imbalances that could radically change the market situation.
“The NBU’s reserves remain high, which guarantees the regulator has the resources to smooth out fluctuations. Demand for the dollar from the population is restrained, and import payments, like the behavior of the population, do not create a critical burden,” KYT Group believes.
As for the international context, experts believe that after the Fed’s actual rate cut in September, markets have already priced in a “cheaper” dollar, and now the focus is on the Fed and ECB’s further actions until the end of the year, which will be triggered by macro data (inflation, labor market, etc.).
“Long term (6+ months): the baseline scenario of a gradual devaluation of the hryvnia remains. The benchmark is 43.00-44.50 UAH/USD until mid-2026,” KYT Group said in a comment.
https://interfax.com.ua/news/projects/1108372.html
Issue #2 – September 2025
The purpose of this review is to provide an analysis of the current situation on the Ukrainian currency market and forecast the hryvnia exchange rate against key currencies based on the latest data. We analyze current conditions, market dynamics, key influencing factors, and likely scenarios.
Analysis of the current situation on the currency market
International context
The first half of September was marked by expectations of decisions by the world’s leading central banks. In the United States, markets were expecting policy easing at the beginning of the month: inflation rose only slightly, and the labor market showed a gradual cooling. This prompted investors to lay a high probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve. As a result, the dollar weakened, while the euro recovered even without its own drivers, only due to pressure on the US currency.
The European Central Bank, for its part, left its policy unchanged: inflation is stable at around 2%, the economy is growing slowly, and there are no new reasons for the euro to break out. Oil and gas prices remained in relative balance in August-September, creating no additional risks or opportunities for the EU currency.
The key external factor for the FX markets in the coming weeks will be further signals from the Fed and the ECB.
New data on inflation and the US labor market remain key benchmarks for the Federal Reserve. If the rate of price growth remains within forecasts and employment continues to cool, this will strengthen the case for easing policy in the near future. On the contrary, a sudden jump in prices or unexpectedly strong employment figures could force the Fed to wait and take its time with rate cuts.
For the European Central Bank, the main benchmarks remain inflation in the eurozone and the growth rates of the economies of Germany and France. If inflation continues to hover around 2%, the ECB will maintain a pause. Any acceleration of inflationary processes could become a brake on further money depreciation.
Thus, in the coming weeks, it will be the macro data from the US and the EU that will determine sentiment on the global FX market. For the hryvnia, this means that the dollar and euro exchange rates against the national currency will remain influenced by external signals rather than internal factors.
If the US confirms its course for a new wave of easing, the dollar will lose some more support, and the euro may strengthen further. If the Fed decides to keep rates on hold longer, the dollar will get a short-term boost.
For Ukraine, this will mean that both key currency pairs (USD/UAH and EUR/UAH) will continue to fluctuate primarily in response to external signals.
Domestic Ukrainian context
The NBU continues to maintain control over the market: reserves remain at record levels, and the official hryvnia exchange rate is gradually strengthening. The cash market moves in sync with each other without deviations, and bid-ask spreads remain stable.
This confirms that in recent months, the Ukrainian foreign exchange market has maintained a balance and a kind of “exchange rate consensus” between the regulator, foreign exchange market operators, and export-import businesses.
An additional marker is the average annual exchange rate of 45.6 UAH/USD set by the government in the draft budget for 2026. This benchmark almost coincides with business expectations for the next year (46 UAH/USD) and shows the consensus of both the government and the market in the medium term towards controlled devaluation with almost flat dynamics rather than hryvnia strengthening.
There are currently no internal factors that can radically change the situation in the coming weeks. All key drivers are of external origin. If the dollar weakens globally, the hryvnia will have an additional chance to strengthen; if the dollar pulls back, the Ukrainian market will feel it very quickly.
The strategic stability of the Ukrainian currency market, as well as the economy’s ability to withstand the pressure of the war’s aftermath, is enhanced by the willingness of international partners to financially support the country, as well as intensive discussions in the EU about mechanisms for financing Ukraine with frozen Russian funds.
US dollar exchange rate: dynamics and analysis
General characteristics of market behavior
At the end of September, the dollar demonstrated a gradual upward reversal after several weeks of flat sliding. While at the beginning of the month the market was in the range of UAH 41.00-41.30/$, the last few days have been marked by a synchronized rise in both buying and selling, and the official NBU rate.
In fact, the market has moved into a correction phase, testing the upper limits of the usual range: all exchange rate indicators have moved up simultaneously, signaling that the intensity of transactions and demand are gradually increasing. Operators reflect this in their quotes. This trend is likely to continue into October, with the dollar moving smoothly along an almost flat trajectory without any sharp movements.
Despite the smooth growth of the dollar, spreads remain stable (0.40-0.50 UAH/$), which reflects the controllability of the market and the absence of sharp distortions that can dramatically change the market situation.
Key factors of influence
Forecast.
Euro exchange rate: dynamics and analysis
General characteristics of market behavior
The euro showed steady growth on the Ukrainian market in September. On a monthly retrospective horizon, quotes rose by an average of UAH 0.40-0.50 per euro.
Despite the multidirectional fluctuations in the euro, the main focus should be on the spread, which has widened significantly in relation to buying, signaling a decline in demand from the population.
Key observations
Ø Exchange rate geometry:
o The selling rate has been steadily pulling upward, laying the groundwork for further growth.
o The buying rate is moving away from the NBU’s official rate – market operators are no longer willing to buy back euros from clients at “premium” prices, as demand has declined.
Ø Supply and demand:
o Demand for cash euros has cooled significantly after the summer peak, as seen in the reduction in purchase volumes.
o The supply of euros from households remains strong, which is why purchase rates are being pushed to the lower bound.
Influence of external factors:
– The euro is supported solely by a weaker dollar, with no growth drivers of its own.
– Expectations of the Fed and ECB rate decisions in October and November remain the main risk/potential factor for the EUR/USD pair and, accordingly, for the EUR/UAH exchange rate.
Forecast.
Recommendations: dollar or euro – buy, sell, or wait?
USD/UAH
The dollar entered a corrective recovery phase at the end of September, but globally, the market has already priced in a “cheaper” dollar after the September Fed rate cut.
This means that there is limited room for a large-scale decline, and the dynamics will continue to depend on new macro data and signals from Washington.
There is no need to fundamentally shift the structure of savings in favor of the dollar at this time, as liquidity is more important than fixing the exchange rate. The best strategy is to gradually diversify your purchases in small tranches to build up a reserve.
It is advisable to sell the dollar only in the event of short upward spikes after decisions or signals from the Fed, as they can provide so-called time windows for profitable profit-taking.
For speculative operations, it is best to work with short positions and clear stops. The current corridors of 41.20-41.70 UAH/$ allow you to catch small fluctuations, but do not count on sharp jumps. Macro signals from the US or the EU can provoke short impulses that will bring benefits on quick trades.
EUR/UAH
The euro is holding steady on the Ukrainian market: sales are pulling up, while purchases are pressing against the official NBU exchange rate.
At the same time, the potential for further euro growth remains, primarily if the Fed continues to ease and the ECB is in no hurry to change its policy.
It is now possible to buy euros in small installments, especially for those planning to spend in the eurozone or diversify their portfolios. At the same time, you shouldn’t chase short-term peaks – it’s better to act in a planned manner and have liquidity to maneuver.
It makes little sense to sell the euro at current levels, as the upside potential (up to UAH 49.5-50/€ in the coming months) exceeds the risks of a pullback.
For speculative operations, the euro remains more attractive due to its higher elasticity: selling moves up, while buying stays down, creating a wider space for playing on fluctuations. To take advantage of this, you can expect the rate to rise to 49.5-50 UAH/€, and before or on the days of macro data releases, you should focus on short entry/exit trades.
Overall strategy
Now is clearly not the time to bet on one currency. Both the dollar and the euro remain influenced by external signals. The dynamics of macro data in key economies may become a trigger for the Fed and the ECB, which will determine where the exchange rate pendulum will swing next.
The basis of the strategy is to maintain liquidity and flexibility. Buy in tranches, sell only at peaks, and plan transactions in ranges rather than points.
In the medium and long term, there is a stable consensus between the government and business in favor of controlled devaluation, so the currency as a basic asset for saving savings retains its value.
This material was prepared by analysts of the international multiservice product FinTech platform KYT Group and reflects their expert, analytical professional judgment. The information presented in this review is for informational purposes only and cannot be considered as a recommendation for action.
The Company and its analysts make no representations and assume no liability for any consequences arising from the use of this information. All information is provided “as is” without any additional warranties of completeness, obligations of timeliness or to update or supplement.
Users of this material should make their own risk assessment and informed decisions based on their own evaluation and analysis of the situation from various available sources that they consider to be sufficiently qualified. We recommend that you consult an independent financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
REFERENCE
KYT Group is an international multi-service product FinTech platform that has been successfully operating in the non-banking financial services market for 16 years. One of the company’s flagship activities is currency exchange. KYT Group is one of the largest operators in this segment of the financial market of Ukraine, is included in the list of the largest taxpayers, and is one of the industry leaders in terms of asset growth and equity.
More than 90 branches in 16 major cities of Ukraine are located in convenient locations for customers and have modern equipment for the convenience, security and confidentiality of each transaction.
The company’s activities comply with the regulatory requirements of the NBU. KYT Group adheres to EU standards, having a branch in Poland and planning cross-border expansion to European countries.
Issue No. 1 – September 2025
The purpose of this review is to provide an analysis of the current situation on the Ukrainian currency market and forecast the hryvnia exchange rate against key currencies based on the latest data. We analyze current conditions, market dynamics, key influencing factors, and likely scenarios.
Analysis of the current situation on the currency market
International context
The first half of September in the global financial markets, as well as in the Ukrainian one, was marked by the expectation of a key decision by the US Federal Reserve. The Fed chairman made it clear that policy would have to be adjusted in order not to “overstretch” the economy, which is already showing signs of cooling. Inflation rose slightly again in August, but not critically, and the labor market is gradually weakening. This has put investors on hold: whether the Fed will cut rates in September or take a break. This answer will affect not only the dollar, but also the dynamics of the euro and hryvnia, as well as gold, stock, and even cryptocurrency prices.
Against this background, Europe looks quite calm. Inflation is hovering around 2%, which is the level that the European Central Bank is targeting. There are no new reasons to raise rates, so the regulator decided not to change anything. The eurozone economy is growing very slowly, and this does not give the euro strong arguments for strengthening.
Oil and gas prices did not add to the intrigue in August and September: prices remained more or less stable, with no new peak fluctuations. This is even a disadvantage for the euro, as the absence of energy pressure removes the need for the ECB to act more firmly.
The actual Fed rate cut has not yet occurred, but the market is already living in anticipation of this step, which analysts believe is most likely. Both globally and in Ukraine, the dollar is gradually weakening precisely because investors are pricing in the high probability of a policy easing by the US central bank.
In the euro/dollar pair, the euro is recovering without any drivers of its own, thanks solely to the dollar’s weakening. In Ukraine, the dollar is also drifting downward. This means that the “cheaper” dollar is actually already taken into account in quotes. At the same time, if the Fed does cut the rate in September, the reaction may be short and moderate, as the market has already played out most of the potential impact of this scenario. But if the Fed surprises by keeping the rate unchanged, the dollar will have a chance for a short-term pullback, and the market will have to quickly revise its estimates and expectations.
Domestic Ukrainian context
In Ukraine, the situation remains under control. The National Bank has record reserves and can smooth out any surges in demand or supply of currency. The official hryvnia exchange rate is gradually strengthening, and the cash market is moving in the same direction, without sharp deviations. Spreads – the difference between buying and selling – remain stable, indicating a consensus between the regulator and the market.
The key question for the coming weeks is how the dollar will react to the Fed’s decision. If the rate is cut, the hryvnia may receive additional support, and the euro may rise slightly higher. If the rate is left unchanged, the dollar will retain its advantage, and the Ukrainian market will feel it.
The main news of the first half of September was the government’s benchmark for the dollar exchange rate included in the draft budget for 2026 – an average annual rate of 45.6 UAH/$. It is close to the expectations of the business community: according to a survey by the European Business Association, member companies include UAH 46/$ in their financial plans for 2026, which is higher than the expected exchange rate for 2025 – UAH 44/$. In general, we see a devaluation consensus in the forecasts of the Ukrainian government and business, as there are no prerequisites for a reversal.
US dollar exchange rate: dynamics and analysis
General characteristics of market behavior
September for the dollar is in a mode of smooth fluctuations with an almost flat downward trend. On global markets, the dollar has already played down most of the expectations of a possible Federal Reserve rate cut in September, and this has been reflected in the domestic Ukrainian market.
Over the past 30 days, the exchange rate has been gradually slipping downward: the average buying rate dropped from UAH 41.20 to UAH 41.05, the selling rate from UAH 41.65 to UAH 41.50, and the official NBU rate from UAH 41.35 to UAH 41.25. It was a steady and controlled decline, with no sharp impulses. In the second decade of September, the dollar remained in a narrow range of 41.00-41.30 UAH/$ on the cash market, while sales remained in the range of 41.45-41.60 UAH/$.
The NBU’s official exchange rate moves in sync with the market, anchoring the market. Bid and ask spreads remained in a narrow range of UAH 0.40-0.50, while market rates remained equidistant from the official rate, indicating that there is a “rate consensus” between the market and the regulator.
Key factors of influence
Forecast.
We advise you to pay attention to our scenario modeling of exchange rates for different actions of the Fed, which was published in the previous forecast and is available at this link.
Euro exchange rate: dynamics and analysis
General characteristics of market behavior
In the first half of September, the euro on the Ukrainian market showed restrained dynamics with a gradual shift to the upper limits of the range. During the week, bidding quotes remained in the range of 48.00-48.10 UAH/€, while asking prices were 48.65-48.75 UAH/€. On the 30-day horizon, we can see an undulating trend: a decline in late August, stabilization in early September, and a new attempt to rise closer to the middle of the month.
Specifics of the course location
A characteristic change in the “geometry” is noteworthy: the buying rate during the previous week was clearly “pressing” against the official NBU rate, while the selling rate was gradually moving away from it. At the same time, the spread between buying and selling (0.50-0.60 UAH/€) remains relatively stable. This may indicate that:
Key influencing factors
Forecast.
We advise you to pay attention to our scenario modeling of exchange rates for different actions of the Fed, which was published in the previous forecast and is available here.
Recommendations: dollar or euro – buy, sell, or wait?
USD/UAH
The dollar has already priced in a high probability of a September Fed rate cut in the domestic market. This means that there is limited room for further decline.
It makes little sense to buy at the bottom; it is better to distribute purchases in tranches without trying to catch the perfect moment.
If the Fed unexpectedly leaves the rate unchanged, the dollar may briefly play up, and this will be an opportunity for those who hold reserves to sell some of them at a profit.
For medium-term plans, the dollar remains the “anchor” of the portfolio, but now is not the time for large one-time transactions – liquidity and flexibility are more important.
EUR/UAH
The euro is showing an interesting “geometry”: the buying rate is approaching the official rate, while the selling rate is moving up. This signals a lower demand for the euro from the population, but also the caution of operators who are hedging against the risk of its growth.
It is now possible to buy euros in small tranches, especially for those who are diversifying their savings or preparing future payments to the EU.
If the Fed does cut the rate, the euro will get a boost and could quickly approach 49-50 UAH/€.
There is little point in selling the euro now, as the upside potential is higher than the downside risk.
It’s better to wait for pullbacks or new peaks to optimize the euro’s share of the portfolio.
Overall strategy
On a short-term horizon, it is worth keeping a balance: the dollar as a stable base, the euro as a flexible instrument with the potential for rebounds.
It is better to buy in installments rather than in one go.
Sell only when the market shows a tangible upward movement.
And most importantly, plan in ranges, not points: the Ukrainian market is currently reacting to external signals rather than internal events.
Given the consensus between the government and business on a managed devaluation trend, the hryvnia is the best choice for saving money in the medium and long term.
If the Fed does lower the rate, it is worth considering diversifying your investment portfolio with crypto: the global market will be attracted to risk when it gets cheaper money.
This material has been prepared by analysts of the international multiservice product FinTech platform KYT Group and reflects their expert, analytical professional judgment. The information presented in this review is for informational purposes only and cannot be considered as a recommendation for action.
The Company and its analysts make no representations and assume no liability for any consequences arising from the use of this information. All information is provided “as is” without any additional warranties of completeness, obligations of timeliness or to update or supplement.
Users of this material should make their own risk assessment and informed decisions based on their own evaluation and analysis of the situation from various available sources that they consider to be sufficiently qualified. We recommend that you consult an independent financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
REFERENCE
KYT Group is an international multi-service product FinTech platform that has been successfully operating in the non-banking financial services market for 16 years. One of the company’s flagship activities is currency exchange. KYT Group is one of the largest operators in this segment of the financial market of Ukraine, is included in the list of the largest taxpayers, and is one of the industry leaders in terms of asset growth and equity.
More than 90 branches in 16 major cities of Ukraine are located in convenient locations for customers and have modern equipment for the convenience, security and confidentiality of each transaction.
The company’s activities comply with the regulatory requirements of the NBU. KYT Group adheres to EU standards, having a branch in Poland and planning cross-border expansion to European countries.
Despite the growing share of the euro in Ukraine’s foreign trade and international reserves, the US dollar remains the exchange rate-forming currency for the hryvnya. This was reported by the first Deputy head of the NBU Sergey Mykolaychuk in an interview with Interfax-Ukraine.
“Historically, the focus has always been on the hryvnia-dollar pair. We realize that changes are possible over time with the deepening of European integration, but there is no clear transition plan. Today the dollar remains the exchange rate-forming currency,” he said.
According to the official, the structure of reserves and settlements may change in the future, however, instruments for hedging currency risks, including forwards, are available for business.
Issue #2 – August 2025
The purpose of this review is to provide an analysis of the current situation on the Ukrainian foreign exchange market and a forecast of the hryvnia exchange rate against key currencies based on the latest data. We analyze current conditions, market dynamics, key influencing factors, and likely scenarios.
Analysis of the current situation on the Ukrainian currency market
In the second half of August, a number of important signals from global markets confirmed that the hryvnia exchange rate increasingly depends not on local factors but on international news and the state of the world’s leading economies and the decisions of their central banks.
Domestic factors remain rather short-term impulses, capable of producing slight spikes but not changing the overall trajectory.
International context
In the United States, July data showed a slowdown in inflation and a cooling of the labor market. This took some pressure off the dollar and increased expectations that the Federal Reserve could cut rates as early as September. The Fed chairman explicitly acknowledged that the policy will have to be reviewed in order not to “overstretch” the economy. As a result, the dollar weakened slightly, and stock markets got a chance for additional optimism.
Given the expectations of the Fed’s actions regarding rate revisions, different scenarios should be considered for key currency pairs.
If the Fed cuts rates in September:
If the Fed leaves the rate unchanged:
The European economy looks sluggish: growth is almost imperceptible, inflation is stable at 2%, and there are no new drivers for the euro. This keeps the currency in a neutral mode – no reason for a breakthrough, but also no prerequisites for a sharp fall.
The UK was the first major economy to cut its interest rate. This signaled to the world that the period of tight monetary policy is coming to an end. If the United States confirms a similar move, the yield differential between currencies will decrease, and the dollar will lose some of its advantage.
Oil and gas prices remained relatively calm in August. This means that there is no additional pressure on the US and European economies due to energy. This is even more of a disadvantage for the euro, as the argument for a tighter ECB policy disappears.
In general, the international backdrop looks like this: The dollar has temporarily lost some of its support, and the euro is hovering on the sidelines.
For the hryvnia, this means relatively stable conditions.
Domestic Ukrainian context
The NBU’s reserves remain high, even after significant interventions and external debt repayments. This creates a safety margin to smooth out exchange rate fluctuations.
In July, inflation eased to 14.1% year-on-year, and the monthly figure showed deflation for the first time in two years. This calmed the market and reduced the “insurance premium” in prices.
External support is coming in as planned: at the end of August, the next tranche of more than €3 billion under the Ukraine Facility program and €1 billion from the proceeds of frozen Russian assets under the G7 Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration for Ukraine (ERA) initiative were disbursed. This is an important stabilizing factor for both the budget and the FX market.
The NBU has also taken steps to liberalize the currency by allowing the repatriation of dividends and expanding hedging instruments. This creates a more predictable environment for business without putting any additional pressure on the exchange rate.
In general, the Ukrainian FX market is entering September in a calm mode: reserves are sufficient, inflation has cooled, and external funds are coming in at the right level.
Internal factors are rather short-term spikes, but the exchange rate will be determined by statements, events, and decisions from Washington and Brussels.
US dollar exchange rate: dynamics and analysis
The general characteristic of market behavior is a smooth decline without sharp impulses
August confirmed the trend of gradual depreciation of the dollar against the hryvnia.
Domestic demand remains restrained: importers are working as planned, households are mainly focused on the euro, and the NBU is keeping the exchange rate in balance without any sudden movements.
Key influencing factors:
Forecast:
Euro exchange rate: dynamics and analysis
General characteristics of market behavior
The end of August showed more volatility for the euro than for the dollar. During the week, the exchange rate initially declined (to lows of ~47.80 UAH/€ on the buy side and ~48.40 UAH/€ on the sell side on August 27-28), but recovered to the level of 48.20-48.60 UAH/€ at the end of the period (August 30-31). It was a technical rebound that was synchronized with movements in the EUR/USD pair on the global market after the Fed chairman’s statement.
Prior to the news from the US, the market had recorded a stabilization in the euro after the previous decline, but there were no drivers for a new trend or significantly different levels from the current target levels.
Key influencing factors
Forecast.
Recommendations: act in ranges, keep liquidity, hedge risks
Key universal ideas:
A universal strategy for everyone – flexibility, division of operations into parts, hedging.
For private investors and savers:
For speculative operations on USD/UAH and EUR/UAH:
This material was prepared by the company’s analysts and reflects their expert, analytical professional judgment. The information presented in this review is for informational purposes only and cannot be considered as a recommendation for action.
The Company and its analysts make no representations and assume no liability for any consequences arising from the use of this information. All information is provided “as is” without any additional warranties of completeness, obligations of timeliness or updates or additions.
Users of this material should make their own risk assessments and informed decisions based on their own evaluation and analysis of the situation from various available sources that they consider to be sufficiently qualified. We recommend that you consult an independent financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
REFERENCE
KYT Group is an international multi-service product FinTech platform that has been successfully operating in the non-banking financial services market for 16 years. One of the company’s flagship activities is currency exchange. KYT Group is one of the largest operators in this segment of the financial market of Ukraine, is included in the list of the largest taxpayers, and is one of the industry leaders in terms of asset growth and equity.
More than 90 branches in 16 major cities of Ukraine are located in convenient locations for customers and have modern equipment for the convenience, security and confidentiality of each transaction.
The company’s activities comply with the regulatory requirements of the NBU. KYT Group adheres to EU standards, having a branch in Poland and planning cross-border expansion to European countries.
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