In October 2026, the volume of foreign currency purchased by the Ukrainian population exceeded the volume sold by $0.99 billion in dollar terms, compared to $0.74 billion in September of this year and $0.75 billion in October 2025.
According to data from the National Bank, in October, compared to September, cash foreign currency purchases increased by $214.0 million—to $2 billion 301.0 million—while sales decreased by $32.9 million—to $1 billion 314.2 million.
The volume of cash dollar purchases by the public in October increased by $122.6 million to $1,505.7 million, while sales decreased by $9.3 million to $968.4 million.
In October, the dollar-equivalent value of euro cash purchases by the public rose by $99.3 million to $738.8 million, while sales fell by $16.6 million to $291.4 million.
In the non-cash foreign exchange market, the volume of purchases by bank customers in October increased by $43.2 million compared to September, reaching $11,824.9 million, while sales decreased by $214.2 million to $7,588.5 million.
The volume of interbank transactions rose by $134.3 million to $9,833.0 million.
On an annualized basis, the volume of non-cash foreign currency purchases by bank customers increased by $2,373.4 million, sales decreased by $408.5 million, and interbank transactions increased by $2,928.8 million.
Over the month, the official hryvnia-to-dollar exchange rate weakened by nearly 67 kopecks to 45.53 UAH/$1, while the hryvnia strengthened by 25 kopecks against the euro to 50.68 UAH/EUR1. During this period, the official hryvnia-to-dollar exchange rate hit a new all-time low five times, most recently reaching 45.6008 UAH/$1.
The National Bank’s foreign exchange interventions in October reached a record $5.998 billion, surpassing the previous high of $5.519 billion recorded in September of this year.
Issue No. 2 – September 2026
Analysis of the Current Situation in Ukraine’s Foreign Exchange Market
In the second half of September, the hryvnia was under constant downward pressure, but the NBU’s participation in trading kept the national currency from falling further. As a result, as of September 29, the official exchange rate stood at 44.81 UAH per dollar, whereas at the beginning of the month it was at 44.52 UAH per dollar.
Several key factors are currently influencing exchange rate fluctuations. The first is the security situation, which deteriorated significantly in September due to intensified Russian shelling of large enterprises, gas stations, warehouses, and civilian infrastructure. Because of this new large-scale destruction, the need to import goods and equipment into the country is growing, putting pressure on the exchange rate. The second is the international situation, which consists of two key factors: the war in Iran and high oil prices, as well as fluctuations in the euro/dollar exchange rate. Meanwhile, the volume of the NBU’s interventions in the foreign exchange market remains quite significant: according to published data, the National Bank sold more than $4.92 billion on the market over the 25 days of September.
Global Context
The global market saw the most significant event of recent months in September: on September 16, the Federal Reserve Committee decided to raise interest rates. Consequently, the benchmark interest rate was increased by 0.25 percentage points—to a range of 3.75–4%. The Committee explained its decision as an effort to bring inflation back to the 2% target more quickly. Fed Chair Kevin Worsh noted that inflation is “too high and has been so for too long.” According to him, the Committee needed to ensure that core inflation was moving toward the target “clearly and at a sufficient pace.” Among the main risks contributing to heightened uncertainty in the U.S., leading economic experts typically cite geopolitics, particularly the war in Iran and the associated volatility in energy prices. The Fed is expected to raise the benchmark rate once more by the end of 2026.
As tensions in the Middle East show no signs of abating, the oil market is under immense pressure from the so-called “Strait of Hormuz factor.” Yesterday, September 28, oil prices rose again. This time, the reason was a delay in ceasefire negotiations between the U.S. and Iran after U.S. President Donald Trump rejected the proposed peace agreement. As a result, oil prices rose: Brent futures climbed 1.27% to $105.64 per barrel.
There is slightly more certainty in the international foreign exchange market, where the dollar has been steadily strengthening throughout the second half of September following the Fed’s decision to raise interest rates. The EUR/USD pair has been trading at around 1.1366 USD/EUR in the final days of September.
Domestic Ukrainian Context
In September, the foreign exchange market remained under pressure from increased demand for foreign currency. The volume of interventions by the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) remains very substantial: between August 31 and September 25, the NBU sold $4.924 billion on the market. As a reminder, in August, the volume of interventions totaled $4.82 billion. Businesses’ demand for foreign currency is rising, as intensified enemy shelling and destruction have led to a significant increase in business costs and a growing need to import equipment. In addition, the hryvnia is under pressure from fuel prices, which have risen sharply over the past month amid global trends in the oil and petroleum products markets.
Meanwhile, inflation in Ukraine continues to rise—in August 2026, consumer inflation accelerated to 8.1% year-over-year, prompting the Board of the National Bank of Ukraine to decide in September to raise the discount rate by 0.5 percentage — to 16% — in light of persistent fundamental price pressures. Regarding high prices, the NBU explained that last month’s price dynamics were driven by rising fuel costs amid the escalation of the war in the Middle East, as well as faster growth in certain administrative tariffs, which is largely a consequence of Russian attacks on critical infrastructure. The National Bank notes that raising the discount rate will help keep inflation expectations under control and return inflation to a steady downward trajectory toward the 5% target over the policy horizon.
However, the main issue is not inflation, but the state of the national budget. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that the budget deficit for military needs amounts to $27 billion, and shortly after this statement, Prime Minister Serhiy Koretskyy announced a budget austerity regime. Given the significant funding shortfall, the government has deferred 39 billion hryvnias in capital expenditures, originally scheduled for September, to the end of 2026.
The Ministry of Finance expects to secure the necessary funds for the budget from the EU, G7 countries under the ERA mechanism, the IMF, the World Bank, the United Kingdom, and other partners. According to Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko, Ukraine can avoid a budget crisis if it receives $29.5 billion in international financing by the end of 2026, as provided for under a number of support programs. However, for this to happen, the Verkhovna Rada and the government must fulfill the necessary obligations, including, in particular, signing the law on the taxation of digital platforms and adopting amendments regarding politically exposed persons.
Against the backdrop of a significant intensification of Russian shelling of civilian infrastructure and business facilities, Ukraine faces major threats of a substantial increase in government spending coupled with a simultaneous decline in tax revenues to the state budget. The economic slowdown means that international support will play an even more critical role. Meanwhile, the European Union has approved the eighth regular tranche for Ukraine under the Ukraine Facility program. As a result, the Ukrainian budget will receive nearly 3 billion euros in the near future. The funds are intended to support Ukraine’s macrofinancial stability, the country’s recovery and modernization, the functioning of public administration, and the implementation of reforms.
U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate: Trends and Analysis
Fluctuations in the dollar exchange rate in September were mixed: while the dollar weakened at the beginning of the month, it strengthened steadily in Ukraine during the second half of the month, following the trend on the international market. Consequently, from 44.52 UAH/USD at the beginning of September, the official exchange rate reached 44.81 UAH/USD as of September 29.
The cash market mirrored the interbank market’s movements, meaning the hryvnia weakened while the dollar strengthened. By the end of the month, the cash market appeared to have finally and firmly broken through the psychological barrier of 45 UAH per dollar. As of September 29, the buying rate was 44.50–44.75 UAH/USD, and the selling rate was 45.05–45.30 UAH/USD. The spreads between the buying and selling rates increased slightly to 0.6–0.8 UAH/USD.
Key influencing factors:
· High demand for foreign currency on the interbank foreign exchange market. Rising fuel prices, as well as the need to rebuild destroyed buildings, warehouses, gas stations, and other facilities, require foreign currency for import purchases, which increases demand for the dollar and the euro.
· The NBU is ready to inject foreign currency into the market to curb the hryvnia’s downward trend. Most currency sales take the form of interventions, which bring the exchange rate back below 44.90 UAH/USD. Only the regulator’s interventions determine the exchange rate range for the hryvnia.
· Demand for foreign currency in cash is growing in Ukraine. In anticipation of a difficult winter, the population is seeking to convert its savings into safe, liquid currencies to protect against inflation and devaluation.
· International factors: The war in Iran is still far from over, and the U.S. has already announced plans to intensify bombing in Iran after the midterm congressional elections in November.
· Oil prices are constantly influenced by the situation in the Middle East. Regular spikes in oil prices lead to a steady rise in the cost of petroleum products, which affects inflation rates in the U.S., the EU, and Ukraine.
· Market expectations: In the global market, expectations center on the next increase in the Fed’s benchmark interest rate. In Ukraine, the main focus is on the intensifying drone and missile attacks on major cities—particularly Dnipro, Odesa, Zaporizhzhia, and Kyiv—which are triggering new waves of migration and causing massive economic losses.
Forecast
· Short term (1–2 weeks): base range of 44.80–44.95 UAH/USD; fluctuations may be in different directions depending on the volume of the NBU’s foreign exchange interventions.
· Medium term (2–3 months): 44.95–45.40 UAH/USD. On the international market, the dollar is strengthening due to the Fed’s rate hike. In Ukraine, this factor also influences the dollar’s exchange rate movements; however, the main factor remains the volume of interventions the NBU is prepared to offer the market here and now, as well as the NBU’s plans to prevent the hryvnia from sharply depreciating.
· Long-term (6+ months): A depreciation trend will prevail, and by the end of winter—assuming the state budget deficit worsens and there are fairly prolonged delays in the receipt of new tranches of international aid—the exchange rate could reach 45.80–46.50 UAH/USD. Intensified attacks by the Russian Armed Forces on cities, infrastructure, and businesses are leading to a steady increase in pressure on the foreign exchange market. Exchange rate fluctuations will be most significantly influenced by the volume of international aid, the state of the energy sector, the scale of destruction caused by Russian attacks, and fluctuations in oil and petroleum product prices.
Euro Exchange Rate: Trends and Analysis
Throughout September, the euro exchange rate on the Ukrainian market declined. While the official rate was 51.64 UAH/EUR at the beginning of the month, it stood at 50.97 UAH/EUR as of September 29. The main reason for this trend is developments in the international market, where in the second half of September the dollar regained ground thanks to the Fed’s rate hike, while the euro, accordingly, lost ground.
In Ukraine’s cash market, the buying rate ranges from 50.40 to 51.90 UAH/euro, while the selling rate ranges from 51.35 to 51.60 UAH/euro. The spreads between the buying and selling rates began to narrow in September and reached 0.55–0.80 UAH/euro by the end of the month.
Key influencing factors:
· On the international market, the dollar is strengthening, while the euro is weakening. The Fed’s decision to raise the benchmark interest rate had the greatest impact on currency quotes. This provided significant support for the dollar.
· The ECB already implemented one rate hike in September, but another one cannot be ruled out.
Europe is experiencing a sharp rise in inflation, primarily due to rising fuel prices and uncertainty related to the conflict in the Middle East.
· In Ukraine, citizens are actively buying euros to build a financial cushion and save for travel to EU countries. For many citizens, the euro often takes priority over the dollar, as many have relatives living in the eurozone, and some view the EU as a place of refuge should the security situation deteriorate.
Forecast:
· Short term (2–4 weeks): On the Ukrainian market, the euro may trade within the range of 50.95–51.40 UAH/euro.
· Medium term (2–4 months): Depending on global events, the course of the war in Iran, and changes in energy prices, the euro may regain its lost ground; in that case, the official exchange rate in Ukraine could hover around 51.55–51.85 UAH/euro.
· Long term (6+ months): the euro exchange rate could reach 52.50–53.50 UAH/euro. The main factors influencing the euro exchange rate are inflation in the U.S. and EU countries, monetary policy decisions by the Fed and the ECB, further increases in the benchmark interest rate, the situation in the Middle East, and fluctuations in oil prices.
Recommendations for Businesses and Investors
In October, exchange rate fluctuations in the euro/dollar pair may intensify. This will require planning for potential flexibility in investment programs, as well as close attention to international news.
The dollar is regaining ground, while the euro is losing value. The dollar is currently being supported by the Fed’s benchmark rate hike, which has driven up the price of U.S. Treasury bonds. For investors, this means favorable investment opportunities in dollar-denominated assets.
The Fed may raise rates again in 2026. Although the main rate hike already took place in September, leading analysts believe the Fed may raise rates once more in December due to inflationary risks. This will provide support for the U.S. dollar.
The war in Iran is a source of global uncertainty. U.S. military operations in the Middle East continue, putting pressure on oil prices and adding uncertainty to financial markets. For investors, this means the need to always have several scenarios in mind and to plan for flexible options to exit certain assets in order to reallocate funds to others.
Investment security is the key factor when choosing a strategy. Recent exchange rate fluctuations in Ukraine’s foreign exchange market clearly indicate a depreciation trend. Therefore, it is advisable to use the hryvnia for short-term investments and current expenses, rather than for long-term investment plans.
Investment liquidity is a key focus. Due to global uncertainty and volatility in the oil market, fluctuations in the euro/dollar exchange rate do not follow predictable patterns; therefore, an investment portfolio should be structured with all factors in mind. It makes sense to keep the dollar and the euro as the main currencies in the portfolio, while the proportionate ratio of currencies depends on one’s plans and expected returns.
Investing in the dollar is a reliable source of profit. The U.S. economy continues to grow rapidly, as indicated by official statistics, and the U.S. dollar remains one of the most liquid currencies. The dollar’s share in a currency portfolio may well amount to 50–65%.
Diversify your currency portfolio with liquid currencies. The euro’s decline to 50.97 UAH/USD provides investors with opportunities to purchase the euro at a favorable rate for their portfolio in accordance with their individual strategy.
Holding different currencies in a portfolio helps safeguard investments. Investors should opt for liquid currencies whose exchange rates do not exhibit volatility. Among such currencies is the British pound sterling. The Bank of England is expected to raise interest rates twice over the next six months, as rising energy prices increase the risk of sustained inflation. This could open up new investment opportunities at more favorable rates.
Fluctuations in the dollar’s exchange rate on the international stage are always a reason for careful analysis and research into returns. The dollar exchange rate in October and November will be influenced by factors such as the course of the war in Iran, inflation trends in the U.S., the U.S. midterm congressional elections and their results, as well as signals from the Federal Reserve regarding its readiness for further tight monetary policy.
An increase in the NBU’s discount rate is not a reason to immediately switch to hryvnia deposits. Against the backdrop of rising inflation and intensifying devaluation fluctuations, hryvnia deposits should be used with great caution, and the largest share of capital should be allocated to stable foreign currency savings.
Key news to watch. It is important to monitor everything related to oil prices, potential new agreements between the U.S. and Iran, as well as U.S. labor market and inflation statistics. Pay close attention to news regarding the ECB’s plans to adjust its key interest rate. In Ukraine, the main factors influencing the foreign exchange market will be the state of international reserves, the volume of aid and loan tranches received from partners, the situation in the energy sector, and the destruction of infrastructure resulting from the aggressor’s attacks.
This material was prepared by analysts at KYT Group, an international multi-service FinTech product platform, and reflects their expert, analytical, and professional judgment. The information presented in this review is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation for action.
The company and its analysts make no representations and assume no liability for any consequences arising from the use of this information. All information is provided “as is,” without any additional guarantees of completeness, or obligations regarding timeliness, updates, or additions.
Users of this material must independently assess risks and make informed decisions based on their own evaluation and analysis of the situation using various available sources that they themselves deem sufficiently reliable. We recommend consulting with an independent financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
REFERENCE
KYT Group is an international, multi-service, marketplace-style FinTech platform that provides financial companies with access to services for promoting their offerings, as well as advertising and consulting services.
Issue No. 1 – September 2026
Analysis of the Current Situation in Ukraine’s Foreign Exchange Market
The National Bank of Ukraine is firmly keeping the hryvnia exchange rate under control, strengthening its influence by increasing the volume of foreign exchange interventions. As a result, the hryvnia is strengthening despite a serious foreign exchange shortage in the market caused by a lack of funds from exporting companies. The hryvnia exchange rate set by the NBU remained virtually unchanged during the first half of September: as of September 1, it stood at 44.52 UAH/USD, and as of September 15, it was 44.62 UAH/USD. Of course, the cost of maintaining a stable hryvnia is quite high, as the volume of interventions reached $5.915 billion between August 3 and September 4. However, demand for foreign currency remains consistently high, as preparations for winter continue, and companies are therefore continuing to import energy equipment. The difficult situation with grain exports, caused by regular Russian attacks on port infrastructure and ships, is creating additional pressure on the foreign exchange market. According to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, total exports of grains and legumes since the start of the 2026/27 marketing year amount to 4.255 million metric tons, compared to 5.162 million metric tons a year earlier. The resumption of Russian attacks on gas stations will also mean a need for additional equipment and fuel purchases, which must also be paid for in foreign currency—with the NBU remaining the primary seller on the interbank foreign exchange market.
Global Context
The global market is experiencing its final days of complete uncertainty, as the Federal Reserve (Fed) is set to announce its interest rate decision on September 16. Currently, the Fed is expected to raise rates by 25 basis points. A new report on U.S. inflation showed that prices rose more than expected in August. According to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index rose 3.4% year-over-year and 0.4% month-over-month in August, which was fully in line with the consensus forecast. Core inflation slowed to 2.4% year-over-year (the lowest level since 2021), but its monthly increase of 0.3% was higher than the 0.2% forecast by economists. According to CME FedWatch, markets are pricing in a 90% probability of a rate hike at the Fed’s September 16 meeting.
Meanwhile, gold is rebounding strongly. U.S. gold futures rose 0.1% to $4,409.30 per troy ounce, driven by the Consumer Price Index data and, consequently, expectations of a Fed rate hike in September.
The EUR/USD pair is trading around 1.1530 USD/EUR in mid-September, although the dollar periodically dipped to 1.1630–1.1648 USD/EUR during the first two weeks of the month. However, compared to August, when the exchange rate peaked at 1.1709 USD/EUR, the dollar has been steadily strengthening in September. This is happening precisely as the Fed’s policy meeting—the “H-hour”—approaches.
Domestic Ukrainian Context
In the first half of September, the foreign exchange market was under pressure from high demand for foreign currency. The volume of NBU interventions is increasing: while the NBU sold $1.018 billion on the interbank market during the first week of August, it sold $1.329 billion during the week of August 31 through September 4. In total, from the beginning of August through September 4, according to data published by the National Bank, the regulator’s currency sales amounted to $5.915 billion, while its currency purchases totaled only $0.45 million.
The increase in the volume of interventions is leading to a rapid decline in international reserves. According to the NBU, Ukraine’s international reserves as of early September, based on preliminary data, stood at $48.66 billion. They had decreased by 5% in August. The National Bank explained that this trend was driven by a reduction in international financial aid, while the volume of foreign exchange interventions remained at a level close to that of July.
Demand for foreign currency among the public is growing because, against the backdrop of stable exchange rates, citizens are choosing to convert their savings from hryvnia to dollars and euros for a sense of security amid high uncertainty and the prolonged continuation of military operations. In August, net foreign currency purchases by households increased by 26% to $0.562 billion, while in July the balance between purchases and sales stood at $0.5 billion.
Foreign currency is becoming not only a way for households to avoid losses in the event of a hryvnia devaluation, but also an opportunity to preserve their funds amid rising inflation. And inflation in Ukraine is rising. According to the NBU, it accelerated to 8.1% year-over-year in August. Among the main reasons are rising fuel prices, as well as higher administrative inflation amid increases in water supply and wastewater disposal rates. NBU experts note that price pressures remain elevated due to the consequences of Russian military aggression and the war in the Middle East, while the intensification of Russian attacks on logistics, manufacturing, and energy infrastructure facilities is increasing business costs and limiting the domestic supply of goods and services.
Significant challenges are emerging regarding the fulfillment of the state budget revenue plan. As Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko recently stated, the government has established a procedure for financing expenditures under conditions of limited liquidity: upon receipt of funds, the security and defense sectors will be financed first, with the remaining expenditures covered only if additional resources become available.
Ukraine has already received the main international aid packages planned for 2026. However, there is news of a new multi-billion package that has already been approved by the European Commission. This amounts to 6.1 billion euros for the purchase of drones and missiles for the Patriot air defense system. As for support for social needs through new tranches from the EU, there is currently no clear information on how much additional funding Europe will allocate to Ukraine by the end of 2026. However, European Commission spokesperson Balázs Újvári recently stated that the European Commission continues to assess the situation with Ukraine’s public finances to determine the country’s priority needs for additional funding this year. Therefore, the EU will discuss potential sources of additional funding in detail and subsequently announce the amounts of additional tranches to support Ukraine’s state budget.
U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate: Trends and Analysis
In the first half of September, the hryvnia initially managed to strengthen to 44.46 UAH per dollar, but then the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) gradually brought the exchange rate back to its late-August level through interventions; as of September 15, the exchange rate stood at 44.62 UAH/USD. The hryvnia’s future trajectory depends entirely on the volume of interventions the National Bank is prepared to carry out.
In the cash market in mid-September, the buying rate was 44.20–44.50 UAH/USD, and the selling rate was 44.80–45.00 UAH/USD. Spreads have remained virtually unchanged, ranging between 0.50–0.60 UAH/USD.
Key influencing factors:
· Rising demand for foreign currency in the interbank foreign exchange market. Businesses and infrastructure damaged by shelling require restoration, and equipment is being purchased abroad, which is driving additional demand for foreign currency.
· The NBU controls the exchange rate and keeps the hryvnia within strict limits. The NBU remains the primary seller of foreign currency, and its participation in trading determines the exchange rate.
· The public seeks to safeguard its savings, and consequently, demand for foreign currency in cash is rising. Anticipating blackouts, a harsh winter, new logistical challenges, and possibly commodity shortages, citizens are accelerating the transfer of their savings into major currencies—the dollar and the euro.
· International factors: The conflict between the U.S. and Iran continues, significantly destabilizing international security and oil prices. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump has stated that the war in the Middle East will end after the midterm congressional elections, which will take place in November.
· Market expectations: In the global market, expectations are centered on the Federal Reserve’s September meeting, and traders are forecasting a 25-basis-point increase in the Fed’s benchmark interest rate. In Ukraine, attention is focused on the new strategy of drone and missile attacks on rear cities, which is causing economic losses and heightening public fears about getting through the winter.
Forecast
· Short term (1–2 weeks): base range of 44.65–44.95 UAH/USD; fluctuations may move in different directions depending on the volume of NBU interventions.
· Medium term (2–3 months): 44.90–45.60 UAH/USD. On the international market, the dollar may strengthen in response to the Fed’s rate hike, as the value of Treasury securities—which will attract investors—will automatically rise. No sharp fluctuations are expected in Ukraine, and if the National Bank adopts a devaluation policy, it will occur very gradually with short-term pullbacks.
· Long term (6+ months): In the baseline scenario, the trend toward devaluation remains, as before, and by the end of winter—assuming the situation regarding the state budget deficit worsens and there are fairly prolonged delays in the receipt of new tranches of international aid—the exchange rate could reach 45.80–46.50 UAH/USD. As previously forecast, Russia’s massive attacks on cities, infrastructure, and businesses are leading to increased pressure on the foreign exchange market, as import needs automatically rise. Exchange rate fluctuations will be most influenced by new inflows of international aid, the extent of damage caused by the attacks, and fluctuations in international oil prices.
Euro Exchange Rate: Trends and Analysis
During the first half of September, the euro initially strengthened on the Ukrainian market but then retreated. While the official exchange rate was 51.64 UAH/euro at the beginning of the month, it stood at 51.52 UAH/euro as of September 15. As before, the euro’s exchange rate dynamics in Ukraine are influenced by a single factor: the euro’s position on the international market.
On Ukraine’s cash market, the buying rate ranges from 51.05 to 51.40 UAH/euro, while the selling rate ranges from 51.80 to 52.00 UAH/euro. There is a very noticeable trend toward wide spreads: in the first half of September, the spreads between the euro’s buying and selling rates widened to 0.80–1.0 UAH/EUR.
Key influencing factors:
· On the international market, the euro still outperforms the dollar.
Currency quotes are most influenced by the ECB’s recent decision to raise the key deposit rate by 0.25 percentage points to 2.5%.
· Risks to EU economies are mounting, calling into question the euro’s further strengthening in the global market. Europe’s economic outlook is considered extremely uncertain, and the risk of accelerating inflation remains high.
· Demand for the euro remains high in the cash market. Citizens are purchasing euros—both in cash and non-cash forms—to build savings, pay for their children’s education, prepare for potential migration, and for other purposes. Although the dollar dominates sales in the cash market, the euro’s share is growing steadily in 2026.
Forecast:
· Short term (2–4 weeks): On the Ukrainian market, the euro may trade within the range of 51.60–51.80 UAH/euro.
· Medium term (2–4 months): If the euro changes direction on the international market as a result of the Fed’s September decision to raise interest rates, the official exchange rate in Ukraine may range between 51.70 and 51.95 UAH/euro.
· Long term (6+ months): Next year, the official euro exchange rate could reach a range of 52.80–53.50 UAH/EUR. The main factors influencing the euro exchange rate are inflation in the U.S. and EU countries, the monetary policies of the Fed and the ECB (i.e., planned changes to the benchmark interest rate), escalation or, conversely, a lull in the Middle East, and energy price trends.
Recommendations for Businesses and Investors
By the end of September, fluctuations in the euro/dollar exchange rate may stabilize. These fluctuations will be primarily driven by the monetary policy of the U.S. Federal Reserve.
The dollar may soon regain ground, while the euro will lose value. The dollar will be supported by the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to raise the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points. This will affect the price of U.S. Treasury bonds and signal to investors to invest in the dollar.
The Fed is preparing to adjust interest rates. Rising inflation in the U.S. has deprived the Fed of the opportunity to lower rates, and markets are now pricing in a rate hike at the Fed’s next meeting. This will provide support for the U.S. dollar while simultaneously putting downward pressure on the euro.
Politics also plays a role in the EUR/USD currency pair. The U.S. is actively preparing for the midterm congressional elections in November, which means that intense political battles in the U.S. will periodically push the dollar to peak levels.
The U.S.-Iran conflict—the timeline for a resolution remains unknown. In the Middle East, the war in Iran is creating new risks for the currency market, as the situation is negatively impacting the oil market. During this period, investors would be wise to consider several scenarios and multiple currencies when building their currency reserves.
The key is investment security. Although the hryvnia is holding steady at up to 45 UAH/USD, the national currency is best suited for urgent and one-off decisions, while a long-term plan should include liquid currencies—the dollar and the euro.
Investment liquidity—after a detailed analysis of the situation. The high volatility of the euro/dollar pair signals the need to develop a currency plan that takes key influencing factors into account, and at the core of the strategy, it makes sense to plan investments in the most liquid currencies—the dollar and the euro. The optimal ratio this fall could be 50/50 or 65/35 (with a larger share of the dollar).
Diversify your currency portfolio using liquid currencies. If an investor’s plan includes not two but four currencies, it is worth considering the British pound and the Swiss franc. The share of savings in these two European currencies can reach 20%.
The investor’s goal is to make cautious and reliable investments. This means that the majority of savings should be held in liquid currencies, with a smaller portion (up to 15%) allocated to other instruments—among which purchasing three-month government bonds denominated in foreign currency appears to be the optimal choice.
Central banks will indicate where exchange rates are headed on the global market. Paying attention to the monetary policies of the EU and the U.S. will help you rebalance your currency portfolio in a timely manner as part of a medium-term investment strategy.
It’s important not to panic. Markets are often influenced by unpredictable events, but an investor’s strategy is their personal financial plan; therefore, a cool-headed assessment—not emotions—will help avoid risks.
What’s important in the news. First and foremost, news from the U.S. regarding the Federal Reserve Committee’s decision on changing the benchmark interest rate. We are also analyzing statements from U.S. President Donald Trump regarding the war in Iran. We are monitoring oil and gold prices. The most important signal for adjusting our strategy will be a strengthening of the dollar to 1.1350–1.1400 USD/EUR. In Ukraine, the main factors influencing the situation on the foreign exchange market will be the NBU’s strategy for intervening in the interbank market, the state of international reserves, news regarding the receipt of multi-billion-dollar loan tranches and aid from partners (particularly in terms of budgetary support), the situation in the energy sector, and any potential news from the front lines.
This material was prepared by analysts at KYT Group, an international multi-service product-based FinTech platform, and reflects their expert, analytical, and professional judgment. The information presented in this review is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation for action.
The company and its analysts make no representations and assume no liability for any consequences arising from the use of this information. All information is provided “as is,” without any additional guarantees of completeness, obligations regarding timeliness, or updates or supplements.
Users of this material should independently assess risks and make informed decisions based on their own evaluation and analysis of the situation using various available sources that they themselves deem sufficiently reliable. Before making any investment decisions, we recommend consulting with an independent financial advisor.
REFERENCE
KYT Group is an international, multi-service, marketplace-style FinTech product platform that provides financial companies with access to services for promoting their offerings, as well as advertising and consulting services.
In August 2026, the volume of foreign currency purchases by Ukrainian households exceeded the volume of sales by $0.45 billion in dollar terms, compared to $0.5 billion in July of this year and $0.36 billion in August 2025.
According to data from the National Bank, in August, compared to July, cash currency purchases decreased by $68.8 million—to $1.9327 billion—while sales decreased by $17.0 million, to $1.4846 billion.
The volume of cash dollar purchases by the public in August increased by $28.9 million to $1,352.1 million, while sales decreased by $56.1 million to $1,034.6 million.
In the cash euro market in August, purchases by the public, in dollar terms, decreased by $108.1 million to $499.8 million, while sales increased by $26 million to $367.6 million.
As for bank customers’ non-cash foreign exchange transactions, both purchases and sales increased in August compared to July: purchases rose by $164.9 million to $11.1925 billion, and sales rose by $144.6 million to $7.6579 billion. At the same time, the volume of interbank transactions decreased by $409.9 million to $8,183 million.
On an annual basis, the volume of non-cash foreign currency purchases by bank customers increased by $2,904.0 million, sales by $998.2 million, and interbank transactions by $2,000 million.
In August, the official hryvnia-to-dollar exchange rate strengthened by nearly 14 kopecks compared to July—to 44.55 UAH/$1—while against the euro, the hryvnia weakened by nearly 61 kopecks—to 51.88 UAH/EUR1.
The National Bank’s net foreign exchange interventions in August rose to $4 billion 815.7 million, an increase of $24.7 million compared to July and $2 billion 119.8 million compared to August 2025.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) increased its interventions in the interbank market last week by $56.8 million, or 4.5%, to $1 billion 329.0 million, according to statistics on the regulator’s website.
According to the National Bank, during the first four days of last week, the average daily negative balance of currency purchases and sales by legal entities rose to $210.3 million from $195.0 million during the same period a week earlier, totaling $841.2 million.
In the retail foreign exchange market, the average daily net deficit nearly doubled: from Monday through Thursday, it stood at $46.6 million, compared to $24.6 million during the same period the previous week. Retail purchases of non-cash foreign currency exceeded sales every day.
The official hryvnia-to-dollar exchange rate at the beginning of last week was 44.5505 UAH/$1, and by the end of the week it had weakened to 44.7273 UAH/$1.
A similar trend was observed in the cash market, where the hryvnia’s exchange rate against the dollar weakened by 7–8 kopecks over the past week: the buying rate fell to 44.48 UAH/$1, while the selling rate fell to nearly 44.88 UAH/$1.
Foreign exchange interventions by the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) on the interbank market in August remained close to July’s level, increasing by $24.7 million, or 0.5 percent, to $4.82 billion, according to data from the regulator’s website.
At the same time, the official hryvnia-to-dollar exchange rate strengthened by 0.3%, or 14 kopecks, in August, reaching 44.5505 UAH/$1 at the end of the month.
The volume of the National Bank’s interventions in the interbank market last week increased by 6.5%, or $77.9 million, compared to the previous week, reaching $1.27 billion.
According to the NBU, net interventions in August rose by 78.6%, or $2.12 billion, year-over-year.
From January through August, the regulator sold nearly $33.0 billion in foreign currency, which is 39.0%, or $9.25 billion, more than during the same period last year.
Over the 28 days of August, the average daily negative balance of legal entities’ currency purchase and sale transactions increased to $169.5 million from $151.8 million in July.
In the retail foreign exchange market, this figure rose from $19.4 million in July to $25.9 million in August.
