Business news from Ukraine

Business news from Ukraine

Hryvnia exchange rate forecast for nearest future from KYT Group analysts

Issue No. 1 – August 2025

The purpose of this review is to provide an analysis of the current situation on the Ukrainian currency market and a forecast of the hryvnia exchange rate against key currencies based on the latest data. We analyze current conditions, market dynamics, key influencing factors, and likely scenarios.

Analysis of the current situation on the Ukrainian currency market

The first ten days of August and the beginning of the second were marked by a number of data and decisions that set the tone for the exchange rate in the coming weeks. As before, external factors dominate, while internal factors mostly generate situational impulses and slight volatility without changing the long-term trend.

International context

UNITED STATES. July inflation slowed to within expectations, with prices rising by 2.7% yoy and core inflation (excluding food and fuel) by 3.1%, fueling expectations of a Fed rate cut in September and giving the dollar a brief respite after strong macro statistics in previous periods. The labor market has also cooled: nonfarm payrolls were weaker and unemployment rose, further increasing the likelihood of a dovish scenario for the Fed. Taken together, these factors reduce the so-called USD tightening premium over the next few weeks, at least until the Fed makes clear signals about its future policy.

Eurozone. The flash estimate of the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) published by Eurostat for July was 2.0% y/y (stable), which preserves the ECB’s argument for gradual cautious easing later this year. The final GDP estimates for the two quarters confirmed weak but still positive growth. For the euro’s future trajectory, this is more of a neutral or moderately negative signal in isolation from other drivers, as there was no hawkish surprise.

The UK sent its own signal to the global currency tone – its central bank cut its policy rate by 25 bp to 4.0%, signaling the start of monetary policy rebalancing by other major economies outside the US and the euro area and creating expectations for a broader rate review, provided that other macro indicators confirm this policy. In general, such processes soften the dollar’s advantage in the basket of global currencies over the next 1-2 months, if the Fed moves in the same direction.

The global energy factor has not yet provided any impetus for key economies to revise their policies. Market expectations for oil prices have not changed dramatically, and current quotes fully reflect the news background of recent weeks: the supply/demand balance does not add to inflationary tensions in the EU, so it is not a factor that would force the ECB to tighten its policy. This will also work against further euro appreciation. The expected trajectory is for a neutral or moderately downward impact on the euro, provided there are no other signals or data that could restrain or reverse the current trend.

Thus, given the current international backdrop, the USD has fewer reasons and drivers to strengthen in the short term, while the EUR is more likely to experience a sideways move.

The key factors in the near term will be the September Fed rate decision and further actions by the central banks of the world’s major economies: the expected convergence of rates in the leading economies reduces the US yield advantage, which means that the dollar’s advantage is melting away, but the euro is not getting its new driver either.

Domestic Ukrainian context

Reserves and interventions. The National Bank of Ukraine’s international reserves remain high, despite the NBU’s significant foreign currency sales and debt repayments. Despite the decline, the reserve cushion remains sufficient to smooth out fluctuations and maintain a controlled exchange rate dynamic.

Inflation. In July, inflation slowed to 14.1% year-on-year (yoy), and for the first time in two years, deflation was recorded at -0.2% on a monthly basis. This reduces short-term price risks and inflationary premiums in the pricing of importers/retailers. For the hryvnia exchange rate, these factors are neutral or moderately calming, as they eliminate the arguments for a sharp “insurance” demand for the currency.

External support is coming in as expected, which supports the basic set of factors for a stable hryvnia scenario. The EU Council’s decision to disburse another fourth tranche of more than €3.2 billion under the Ukraine Facility is an important reinforcement of fiscal stability and FX liquidity for the fall months. This indirectly reduces the risks of hryvnia volatility in the foreign exchange market.

A new step in currency liberalization by the NBU is a positive signal of stable expectations of the market and the regulator. In early August, the NBU allowed the repatriation of dividends and expanded hedging instruments, as well as simplified a number of technical FX transactions. Structurally, this reduces market risks and improves predictability for businesses without a sharp additional demand for foreign currency, which also removes pressure on the exchange rate.

The Ukrainian market is entering the second half of August with a preserved exchange rate consensus: reserves are sufficient, external financing is confirmed, inflation has cooled, and liberalization is dosed and managed. Domestic factors will continue to give short bursts, but the overall direction will still be determined outside Ukraine – by international data and decisions, primarily those of the US and the EU.

US dollar exchange rate: dynamics and analysis

General characteristics of market behavior – calm and narrow corridor

  • Quotes on the market are moving in a narrow range: buy – 41.20-41.35 UAH/$, sell – 41.65-41.80 UAH/$, official – about 41.50-41.60 UAH/$. After the local low on August 11, there was a slight rebound, but no change in the trend. This confirms our expectations and estimates of no significant volatility, with only minor situational movements.
  • The broader trend observed over the past 30 days is a gradual decline in all indicators: sell – from ~42.05 to 41.70 UAH/$, buy – from 41.56 to 41.23 UAH/$.
  • The market spread is consistently small, ranging from UAH 0.40-0.50, and market rates are usually equidistant from the official rate. The combination of these factors is a signal of low risk premiums in the market and the preservation of exchange rate consensus on the current and expected situation between the NBU, foreign exchange market operators and economic entities.

In general, the Ukrainian FX market is in a calm phase: international factors do not provide drivers for sharp changes, while the NBU’s measured interventions and liberalization keep market volatility and manageability low. Domestic demand is not driven by hype or accumulative drivers, importers act as planned without provoking abnormal surges, and market operators’ “insurance” margins are smaller or practically absent in the UAH/USD quotes.

Forecast.

  • In the short term (1-3 weeks): the basic range is 41.30-41.85 UAH/USD. A breakout below 41.20 is unlikely without a strong external catalyst; short-term impulses are possible on US data or news about external financing for Ukraine.
  • Medium-term (2-3 months): 41.50-42.20 UAH/$. Expectations of a September Fed decision with a likely (but far from guaranteed) rate cut are pushing quotes to the lower end of the band; autumn budget payments/energy imports may push quotes up, but the start of the export season and its success is a strong stabilizing factor. If the scenario of rising uncertainty (security, economic indicators, political shifts) or deteriorating external revenues materializes, short-term gains to 42.30-42.40 are likely.
  • Longer-term (6+ months): the scenario of a smooth, controlled devaluation to UAH 43.00-44.50 remains, subject to stable external support and the NBU’s current intervention tactics; restraints are new tranches of partners and moderate inflation, risks are geopolitics/security and fiscal needs.

Euro exchange rate: dynamics and analysis

General characteristics of market behavior – reflection of the euro to hryvnia exchange rate on external factors

After a long, smooth slide in the buy range of 47.85 to 47.75 and sell range of 48.65 to 48.45, the exchange rate rebounded sharply on 13-14 October: buy range of 47.90 to 48.20 and sell range of 48.50 to 48.85. The official NBU exchange rate rose by a one-day jump from 48.0758 to 48.6472, up UAH 0.58.

A steady downward trend was observed for thirty days, which was interrupted by a corrective recovery on August 13-14.

For most of the period, market rates were equidistant from the official one (the classic corridor), and the bid/ask spread remained at ~0.50-0.70 UAH/€, a sign of stable expectations and lack of nervousness.

The recorded rebound was the result of an external impulse (movement in the EUR/USD pair on the global market after the US statistics) and was quickly reflected in the EUR/UAH market quotes.

Such episodes do not indicate an imbalance, but only the expected technical alignment between the external and internal markets without changing the overall trend – data from the US and eurozone statistics allowed the EUR to make a technical rebound, but the market has already played off this momentum, so without new significant data from the US or the EU, we should not expect further growth in the euro against the hryvnia.

Domestic demand will also not be able to drive the growth of quotations due to the speculative component of setting rates by market participants – after the overheating of June and July and the exhaustion of effective demand, interest in cash euros has cooled. Importers are acting in a planned manner, which smooths out the overall pressure on the market and helps to normalize spreads.

Forecast.

  • In the short term (1-3 weeks): the basic range is 48.20-48.90 UAH/€. Situational movements are possible under the influence of new data from the US and the EU; in the event of a further weakening of the dollar, the market may test 48.90-49.10 UAH/€.
  • Medium-term (2-3 months): 48.60-49.80 UAH/€. If the Fed goes for a rate hike and the EU remains calm, the upper part of the band will be the upper part of the band; in the scenario of a strong USD or weak euro statistics for the eurozone, the exchange rate will stay at the lower end of the band – 48.20-48.60 UAH/€.
  • Long-term (6+ months): 49.00-51.00 UAH/€ with periodic waves of volatility depending on US-EU trade policy and the ECB and Fed’s rate actions.

Recommendations: act in ranges, keep liquidity, hedge risks

Key universal ideas:

– On the short term: USD has fewer reasons to strengthen, EUR is more likely to be sideways with technical bounces.

– Liquidity over profitability: keep a stock of free currency for current needs, term instruments only with the option of early access with minimal losses.

– A universal strategy for everyone – flexibility, trenching, hedging.

– Plan in ranges, not points: include exchange rate corridors in your calculations and forecasts, not fixed numbers.

– Keep an eye on spreads: this is now a more important indicator than the exchange rate. Narrowing is the moment to optimize purchases/sales, while widening is a signal to slow down.

– Risk management: Avoid large transactions and fixed commitments, avoid decisions based on emotions after news/social media – in the context of exchange rate calm, the media are trying to “squeeze clickbait out of nothing.”

For private investors and savers:

  • USD is the base of stability, EUR is the flexibility: the dollar is the “anchor” of the portfolio; after correction, add euros gradually in small amounts.
  • Don’t chase the “peaks”: the current market is a sideways one, so distribute exchanges systematically over time without trying to catch the perfect rate.
  • Hryvnia should be used exclusively for expenses: only an operational reserve for 1-2 months of needs or current expenses, and the surplus should be invested in hard currencies or currency-linked instruments.

For speculative operations on USD/UAH & EUR/UAH:

– It’s time for short positions and quick action: record profits regularly in “small portions” and cut losses quickly.

– Watch out for “intersections” between the official and the market: a sudden jump in the official rate and narrowing spreads usually mean a technical lag and a quick “catching up” of the market – an opportunity for short positions / profit taking.

– Take care of liquidity: refrain from transactions or make smaller trades in an illiquid market (narrow choice of profitable offers, wide spreads), do not hold large positions before the release of important news.

This material was prepared by the company’s analysts and reflects their expert, analytical professional judgment. The information presented in this review is for informational purposes only and cannot be considered a recommendation for action.

The Company and its analysts make no representations and assume no liability for any consequences arising from the use of this information. All information is provided “as is” without any additional guarantees of completeness, obligations of timeliness or updates or additions.

Users of this material should make their own risk assessments and informed decisions based on their own assessment and analysis of the situation from various available sources that they consider to be sufficiently qualified. We recommend that you consult an independent financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

REFERENCE

KYT Group is an international multi-service product FinTech platform that has been successfully operating in the non-banking financial services market for 16 years. One of the company’s flagship activities is currency exchange. KYT Group is one of the largest operators in this segment of the financial market of Ukraine, is included in the list of the largest taxpayers, and is one of the industry leaders in terms of asset growth and equity.

More than 90 branches in 16 major cities of Ukraine are located in convenient locations for customers and have modern equipment for the convenience, security and confidentiality of each transaction.

The company’s activities comply with the regulatory requirements of the NBU. KYT Group adheres to the EU standards, having a branch in Poland and planning cross-border expansion to European countries.

 

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Net foreign exchange interventions of the National Bank increased by almost a third in July

In July, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) increased its sales of foreign currency on the interbank market by $873.6 million, or 30.9%, to $3.69 billion, according to statistics on the regulator’s website.
According to the statistics, the National Bank’s purchases of foreign currency in July fell to $0.83 million from $1.2 million in June, and last week the NBU’s foreign exchange interventions decreased by $171.9 million, or 21.2%, to $639.6 million compared to the previous week.
In July, the official hryvnia to dollar exchange rate strengthened from 41.7788 UAH/$1 to 41.7662 UAH/$1.
In the cash market, the hryvnia exchange rate strengthened by almost 13 kopecks over the month: buying at around 41.48 UAH/$1, selling at 41.58 UAH/$1.
“In July, the dollar to hryvnia exchange rate continued to demonstrate high stability with insignificant intraday volatility that did not turn into trend movements,” said experts from KYT Group, a major participant in the cash foreign exchange market.
They point out that the exchange rate fluctuations do not exceed 0.2%, which indicates an extremely restrained market reaction – especially given the announcement of important macroeconomic signals.
In their opinion, in the short term (one to three weeks), the corridor of 41.40-42.10 UAH/$ will remain in place in the absence of external shocks or surges in demand from importers.
KYT Group analysts expect that in the medium term (up to three months) the exchange rate may gradually shift to 42.30-42.80 UAH/$ in the face of the traditional growth in budget expenditures in the second half of the year, increased imports, or the implementation of the expected September Fed rate cut, which will lead to a correction of the dollar.
In the long term (over six months), experts predict a controlled devaluation trend. According to the baseline scenario, the exchange rate is expected to be in the range of UAH 43.00-44.50/$, provided that the current level of international support, stable reserves, and no unexpected shocks, especially those of a non-economic nature, are maintained.

 

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NBU’s foreign exchange interventions increased by one third last week

Last week, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) increased its sales of foreign currency on the interbank market by $228.1 million, or 33.6%, to $906.6 million, according to statistics on the regulator’s website.

According to the statistics, this is the largest volume of currency sales since mid-February 2025, when the regulator sold a record $1191.30 million since the beginning of the year.

The data that the NBU has published during this time show that last week the balance of foreign exchange interventions was negative almost every day, except for Monday, when it amounted to $1.38 million. Already on Tuesday, the negative balance was recorded at $11.5 million, on Wednesday – $14.5 million, and on Thursday – $6.8 million.

The official hryvnia exchange rate against the dollar strengthened from 41.7842 UAH/$1 at the beginning of the week to 41.7514 UAH/$1 at the end.

On the cash market, the hryvnia strengthened by 5 kopecks over the week: buying to about 41.61 UAH/$1, and selling to about 41.70 UAH/$1.

“In July, the dollar to hryvnia exchange rate continued to demonstrate stability with a slight correction in a narrow range,” said experts from KYT Group, a major participant in the cash foreign exchange market .

In their opinion, in the short term (two to four weeks), the corridor of UAH 41.40-42.10/$ will remain in place in the absence of external shocks or surges in demand from importers.

KYT Group analysts predict that in the medium term (two to four months), the hryvnia exchange rate may gradually depreciate to 42.20-42.80 UAH/$ in the event of increased domestic budget spending, seasonal demand for the currency, or increased devaluation expectations among households and businesses.

In the long term (more than six months), experts do not expect a reduction in external financial support, so the most likely scenario is a gradual controlled devaluation of the hryvnia to 43.00-44.50 UAH/$. At the same time, the NBU’s exchange rate policy and the government’s signals on the macroeconomic course for 2026 may remain important deterrents.

https://interfax.com.ua/news/economic/1089251.html

 

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Currency exchange network of KYT Group reached 99 branches – expansion in Dnipro

KYT Group, one of the leaders in the currency exchange and financial services market in Ukraine, continues to dynamically expand its network in key cities of the country with high economic activity.

In Dnipro, the 99th branch of the KYT Group brand network, which has a national coverage and covers 31 settlements of Ukraine: from large metropolitan areas to cities with high economic activity, welcomes its first customers.

This is the sixth branch directly in Dnipro city and the ninth within the region, where one branch operates in Kamianske and two more in Kryvyi Rih. Expansion of KYT Group network presence in Dnipro is a response to the consistently high demand among the city and region residents for transparent quality service and favorable conditions from the national leader in the field of currency exchange.

The new exchange office is located at 90 Nauky Avenue, Dnipro, in a convenient location with active pedestrian traffic. The outlet adheres to the standard working hours for the network in all locations of its presence – from 09:00 to 19:00 seven days a week. Additional information about courses and services is available on the regional website of the KYT Group brand network kyt-obmin.dp.ua, by calling the customer support number of Dnipro city and region 0 800 33 20 57 or on the official telegram channel of the KYT Group network in the region @obmenka_dneprua.

Dnipro city is one of the strategic regions of presence of the KYT Group network of currency exchange offices as one of the largest industrial and economic centers of Ukraine.

Clients of the network in Dnipro and the region, as well as throughout the country, have access to key advantages and service options

Ø online fixing of the exchange rate for 60 minutes via the official website, telegram channel or the company’s customer support service – a unique solution for the Ukrainian market that allows you to plan an exchange in advance at the most favorable terms even in the face of a fluctuating exchange rate;

Ø special conditions for wholesale currency exchange – convenient for clients with large volumes of transactions seeking the most favorable offer.

The geographical expansion of KYT Group’s presence is aimed at providing Ukrainians with even wider access to services that meet the highest industry standards.

The new branch of the network in Dnipro city is decorated in the updated visual identity of the brand. This is part of the large-scale rebranding of KYT Group, which emphasizes the position of an innovative leader in the non-banking financial services market, which is constantly working to improve services and digital infrastructure and enhance customer experience, while remaining a reliable partner for Ukrainians in the field of foreign exchange transactions.

During 2024-2025, the KYT Group network is actively investing in expanding its geographical presence as a national leader in the currency exchange segment. New branches of the network were previously opened in Chernivtsi, Ivano-Frankivsk, Zhytomyr, Kamianske, Uman, Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovs’k and Kyiv regions.

REFERENCE

KYT Group is an international multiservice product-based FinTech platform with currency exchange as its flagship business. KYT Group is one of the largest operators of this segment in the Ukrainian financial market. According to data of the National Bank of Ukraine, KYT Group’s currency exchange network ranks first in the industry ranking in terms of taxes paid, capital, and business success in terms of financial results. The network of 98 exchange offices of KYT Group covers 31 of the largest cities of Ukraine and settlements with high business and economic activity. The company’s operations comply with the NBU’s regulatory requirements.

KYT Group’s long-term efforts to achieve leadership positions, improve services, customer and IT infrastructure have been recognized by the prestigious Banker Awards 2024 in the nomination Reliable Technology Partner for Exchange Operations”, as well as the award “Financial Market Leader” among non-bank financial institutions according to the “TOP-100. Ratings of the largest”.

 

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NBU last week significantly reduced sale of currency on interbank market

The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) last week, almost in the absence of currency purchases, reduced its sale on the interbank market by $213.5 million, or 24.4% – to $661.1 million. According to the National Bank’s data on its website, the cash market recorded its first surplus of $2.8 million over the weekend and Monday, but in the following days dollar purchases again exceeded sales by $20-33 million daily.

The official hryvnia exchange rate fell slightly over the week – from 41.6409 UAH/$1 to 41.7341 UAH/$1, while due to the weakening of the dollar on the international market, the euro rose in price more strongly – from 48.7823 UAH/EUR1 to 49.1210 UAH/EUR1, and on July 2 reached a new record – 49.4093 UAH/EUR1.

In the cash market, the dollar appreciated by only 2 copecks on the results of the week. – to 41.6/41.7 UAH/$1, while the euro appreciated by up to 10 copecks. – 49.35/49.53 UAH/EUR1.

“Short-term (1-3 weeks) is likely to fluctuate within the range of 41.30-42.00 UAH/$1 without going beyond 42.10 UAH/$ in the absence of external shocks or short-term situational surges”, – predict experts of a major participant of the cash currency exchange market “KYT Group”.

In their opinion, medium-term (2-4 months) return to the levels of UAH 42.00-42.50/$1 is possible in case of strengthening of import demand, increase of budget payments or realization of risks with financing or change of expectations and moods of the population and market operators.

As for the euro, KYT Group believes that in the short term, taking into account external factors and stable demand, the euro exchange rate may head towards the corridor of UAH 49.00-49.50/EUR1 with a possible breakthrough to UAH 50.00/EUR1, if it receives additional external drivers.

Medium-term, the European currency is likely to go above UAH 50.00/EUR1, especially if the euro remains at a global high and the current international drivers of its growth are maintained.

“Keep your focus on the euro. If your business model provides for expenses or revenues in euro, it is worthwhile to revise the structure of currency risk already now, to put a margin of safety in contracts or to test possible scenarios of the exchange rate breakout above UAH 50/EUR1”, – the company believes.

Source: https://interfax.com.ua/news/projects/1083979.html

 

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Overview and forecast of the hryvnia exchange rate against key currencies from KYT Group analysts

Issue #2 – June 2025

The purpose of this review is to provide an analysis of the current situation on the Ukrainian currency market and a forecast of the hryvnia exchange rate against key currencies based on the latest data. We analyze current conditions, market dynamics, key influencing factors, and likely scenarios.

Analysis of the current situation on the Ukrainian currency market

Ukraine’s foreign exchange market is entering the second half of the year amid relative stability in the domestic market and growing turbulence in the external market.

The current dynamics of the foreign exchange market is shaped by both external and internal factors that have the potential to change the exchange rate trajectory in the near future. The main topics of late June were the global weakness of the dollar, the emergence of new areas of tension on the global map, and the domestic agenda included the activation of the cash market in Ukraine and cautious currency liberalization, which continues under the control of the NBU.

Global context

Global markets are showing a strengthening of the euro amid a weakening dollar. The DXY index has reached its lowest level since 2022 – the US currency has lost more than 10% since the beginning of the year, and this drop could be the largest since the 1970s. The main trigger is political uncertainty in the United States. Rumors about Donald Trump’s intentions to replace the Fed chairman ahead of schedule and interfere with the institution’s activities have raised doubts about the independence of US monetary policy. Against this backdrop, the euro strengthened to USD 1.173, its highest level in three years, while the franc and yen also gained ground.

Although the Fed has so far refrained from changing rates, market expectations have already shifted and, accordingly, are being incorporated by market operators into exchange rate modeling and forecasting – the consensus expectation of international analysts regarding the likelihood of a rate cut at the next meeting has reached 25%.

At the same time, the ECB’s rhetoric remains cautious: the eurozone does not have enough institutional stability to challenge the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. The euro is growing mainly technically, due to the weakening of the dollar, rather than due to fundamental advantages, and strengthening its position is unfavorable for the European Union itself as an additional factor of pressure on exports.

Domestic Ukrainian context

The situation on the Ukrainian market is somewhat different. The cash segment is showing a sharp increase in demand: in May, banks brought $778 million of cash into Ukraine, which is 38% more than in April. In particular, the dollar amounted to $457 million (+52%) and the euro to $318 million (+22%). This indicates an increase in retail purchases, presumably by households that are either trying to lock in current exchange rate levels or increase savings in foreign currency amid seasonal growth in income and remittances, as well as increased devaluation expectations.

The charts show a widening of the spread between the euro buying and selling rates, which accompanies the growth of cash in the market. This signal is an indicator of nervousness in exchange offices and uncertainty about further exchange rate movements. The selling rate reacted more sensitively to the NBU’s exchange rate hike, while the buying rate grew more smoothly, indicating an imbalance in the supply/demand structure.

The National Bank of Ukraine maintains an active stance. Currency liberalization continues, but in a targeted manner, based on the principle of “new money – new conditions.” The NBU is not ready to completely lift restrictions and publicly recognizes that the risks of currency outflows are too high, which could upset the market balance.

The NBU’s readiness to ease restrictions or announcements of such actions could be a clear indicator that the ruling economic bloc has a fundamental vision of how to ensure a long-term balance in the domestic FX market, given the confirmation of further assistance from partners.

The government will soon declare its expectations for the average annual dollar exchange rate as part of the 2026 budget process.

Thus, the domestic FX market is entering a phase of searching for a new balance between controlled stability and growing external and internal risks.

US dollar exchange rate: dynamics and analysis

In June, the USD/UAH exchange rate remained generally stable with a moderate upward trend at the end of the month. Over the course of 30 days, the average purchase rate in banks increased from UAH 41.20 to UAH 41.42 per dollar, and the sale rate from UAH 41.70 to UAH 41.95 per dollar. The official NBU exchange rate rose from 41.52 to 41.69 UAH/$ over the same period.

In the shorter term, over the last week, the market showed stabilization after peaking in mid-June: the buying rate decreased from UAH 41.60-41.40/$, the selling rate was at UAH 42.15-41.95/$, and the official rate remained in the range of UAH 41.83-41.64/$. Thus, there were no sharp fluctuations and the exchange rate dynamics remained controlled.

The dynamics of spreads between buying, selling, and the official exchange rate shows that banks do not expect significant changes in the market and do not include additional premiums or risks in the exchange rate. This indicates a balance of demand for the dollar, stability in market behavior, and the absence of panic or speculative sentiment.

Key influencing factors:

  • Stable monetary policy of the NBU: The regulator continues to smooth out fluctuations, maintaining the official exchange rate in a narrow band.
  • Balanced supply and demand: the increase in cash imports in May (by 38% m/m) did not put pressure on the exchange rate, indicating that the cash market is sufficiently liquid.
  • International factors: the dollar’s devaluation on the global market (the DXY index has lost more than 10% since the beginning of the year) eases external pressure on the hryvnia, while the strengthening of the euro partially shifts demand to another currency.
  • Behavioral expectations of the market: the dollar remains a “basic asset” in the domestic market, but there is no surge in demand for it – players do not expect force majeure in the coming weeks.

Forecast:

  • In the short term (2-4 weeks), the hryvnia is likely to fluctuate between UAH 41.30-42.00, without going beyond UAH 42.10, in the absence of external shocks or short-term situational outbursts.
  • Medium-term (2-4 months): a return to the levels of 42.00-42.50 UAH/$ is possible in the event of stronger import demand, higher budget payments, or the realization of financing risks or changes in the expectations and sentiments of the population and market operators.
  • Long-term (6+ months): the baseline scenario assumes a gradual devaluation of the hryvnia to UAH 43.00-44.50/$ amid a likely reduction in external support and pressure on public finances. Such a scenario could be prevented by the government and the NBU’s declarations on exchange rate policy for 2026, which could partially calm the devaluation expectations of the market and economic agents.

Euro exchange rate: dynamics and analysis

In June, the euro demonstrated steady growth with minimal deviations, strengthening its position amid a weakening US dollar on global markets and continued strong demand for the euro in Ukraine. Over the past 30 days, there has been a gradual but steady increase in all key benchmarks: the average bid rate rose from ~46.80 to ~48.60 UAH/€, the ask rate from ~47.50 to almost 49.40 UAH/€, and the official NBU rate from ~46.90 to 48.48 UAH/€. The last week of June showed a certain acceleration of these dynamics.

These changes indicate a strong upward trend in the euro amid a weakening dollar, speculative interest, and a gradual recovery in import activity.

Key influencing factors:

  • The global strengthening of the euro: the euro/dollar exchange rate reached 1.173, the highest level in three years, which partially explains the euro’s appreciation against the hryvnia.
  • High demand for cash currency in Ukraine: In May, banks imported $778 million in cash, of which $318 million was in euros (+22% y-o-y), reflecting increased interest in this currency.
  • Expectations of a US Federal Reserve rate cut: as a result, pressure on the dollar and the flow of assets into euros.
  • Lack of strict NBU control over the euro: it is easier for market operators to reflect international trends in domestic prices.

Forecast:

  • In the short term (2-4 weeks), given external factors and stable demand, the euro may head towards the range of 49.00-49.50 UAH/€, with a possible breakout to 50.00 UAH/€ if it receives additional external drivers.
  • Medium-term (2-4 months): a breakout above UAH 50.00 is likely, especially if the euro remains at its global high and the current international drivers of its growth remain in place.
  • Longer-term (6+ months): if the current global situation with its drivers pushing the euro upwards remains unchanged, the euro is likely to reach levels above UAH 53.00-55.00/€ if global markets finally shift in favor of the euro and the ECB and the EU do not take measures to counter the upward trend.

In general, the euro market in Ukraine is showing a trend of active growth amid both global factors and domestic demand. The single currency is currently showing significantly higher volatility and market dynamics than the dollar.

Recommendations for businesses and investors

July will bring controlled stability to the dollar and strong growth to the euro. All of this is against the backdrop of a global tug-of-war between the dollar and the euro. In such an environment, the currency strategy should remain flexible, adaptable and designed for several different scenarios.

Liquidity is paramount. All foreign currency assets should be held in instruments with the ability to respond quickly. Time deposits, bonds without the possibility of early withdrawal, or pegging to one currency are potential traps. In the coming months, the focus should not be on yield, but on maintaining the ability to maneuver quickly.

Euro – growth has gained market momentum. After a significant rise in June, the market is still in the phase of appetite for the euro, and although some of the news has already been taken into account, volatility remains. If you need to reformat the share of this currency in your portfolio, it is best to do so gradually, when spreads narrow or pressure from global drivers decreases.

The dollar is still an important element of protection. The current stability does not mean that the dollar has lost its functions and appeal. On the contrary, it is worth keeping in your portfolio in the medium to long term: a devaluation trend for the hryvnia is likely in the fall or winter, which will reward patient dollar holders with strong nerves.

Spreads are the main marker for decisions. While spreads remain stable on the USD/UAH pair, they are widening again on the EUR/UAH pair. This indicates the return of nervousness and uncertainty: when operators put additional margin into the rate, it is a signal to take your time. When the spread is narrowing, it is time to analyze entry.

Fixed “currency benchmarks” are forbidden. The exchange rate predictability of recent weeks is not a basis for patterned actions or excessive optimism. Continue to work with 3-4 exchange rate scenarios and test how your asset structure will work in each of them.

Hryvnia – do not hold more than you need. It is still stable, but external imbalances are growing. Excessive accumulation of hryvnia funds creates risks. The hryvnia mass in excess of the operating reserve should be transferred to any of the reliable currencies or instruments linked to them.

Currency liberalization is more of a signal than an instruction to act. The NBU’s signals about easing restrictions are important, but so far they are more of a symbolic step. The real effect will be seen closer to the fall. Investors and businesses should not only follow the liberalization steps, but also keep in mind the possibility of the regulator’s reverse actions if the exchange rate scenario forces it to return to restrictions. You may want to consider investing in currency instruments that are least dependent on government actions, such as cash or stablecoins based on reliable currencies.

Keep your focus on the euro. If your business model involves expenses or revenues in euros, you should review the structure of currency risk, build a safety margin into contracts or test possible scenarios for a breakout above 50 UAH/€.

What is important in the news. First of all, the publication of indicators and exchange rate targets of the government and the NBU for 2026 as part of the budget process.

This material was prepared by the company’s analysts and reflects their expert, analytical professional judgment. The information provided in this review is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation for action.

The Company and its analysts make no representations and assume no liability for any consequences arising from the use of this information. All information is provided “as is” without any additional guarantees of completeness, obligations of timeliness or updates or additions.

Users of this material should make their own risk assessments and informed decisions based on their own evaluation and analysis of the situation from various available sources that they consider to be sufficiently qualified. We recommend that you consult an independent financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

REFERENCE

KYT Group is an international multi-service product FinTech company that has been successfully operating in the non-banking financial services market for 16 years. One of the company’s flagship activities is currency exchange. KYT Group is one of the largest operators in this segment of the Ukrainian financial market, is among the largest taxpayers, and is one of the industry leaders in terms of asset growth and equity.

More than 90 branches in 16 major cities of Ukraine are located in convenient locations for customers and have modern equipment for the convenience, security and confidentiality of each transaction.

The company’s activities comply with the regulatory requirements of the NBU. KYT Group adheres to EU standards, having a branch in Poland and planning cross-border expansion to European countries.

 

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