The end of May 2025 is characterized by moderate stability on the Ukrainian currency market in the absence of shock changes despite external turbulence and a complex geopolitical background.
The national currency maintains a controlled exchange rate against the US dollar, while the euro/hryvnia pair continues to show increased volatility, which is associated with both global trends and internal structural shifts in the currency preferences of businesses and the population.
In May, the dollar exchange rate remained within the expected range, showing no significant fluctuations. This was due to stable demand for currency in Ukraine, moderate activity on the interbank market, and the restraining effect of the NBU’s significant reserves. There were no acute shortages or surges in current or speculative demand on the market.
The situation with the euro was somewhat contrasting: in the second half of May, the EU currency showed a correction after reaching its peak at the end of April. At the same time, the spread between buying and selling remained higher than for the dollar, indicating that market operators’ expectations of potential fluctuations remain unchanged.
Global context
The key external drivers remain the monetary policy of the world’s leading economies and the overall level of investor sentiment.
The US Federal Reserve has kept interest rates unchanged, citing the need for more macroeconomic data. This not only signals a cautious approach, but also demonstrates the Fed’s independence from political pressure from the new administration. These two factors are holding back the dollar’s recovery, but are not contributing to its further decline.
Europe has clearly stated its ambition to make the euro an alternative to the dollar: European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said that the euro could become a viable alternative to the US dollar as the global standard currency for international trade. She noted that the unpredictable economic policy of the US has forced global investors to limit their appetite for the dollar in recent months, but to achieve the ambitious goal of the EU and its members, they must strengthen their financial and security architecture.
Overall, the temporary fragile balance and the absence of significant changes within the previously established trends led to a decline in the euro’s “exchange rate premium” against the hryvnia, which the euro had gained in the first quarter.
Domestic context
The National Bank continues its policy of cautious currency liberalization: in May, it allowed and increased limits on a number of new transactions for banks and businesses. This not only demonstrates the stability of the currency market, but may also serve as an additional signal to foreign investors about the gradual easing of restrictions on cross-border capital movements.
At the same time, the effectiveness of such steps will be measured not only by the volume of repatriated profits, but also by whether investors perceive this as Ukraine’s readiness to return to a model of long-term capital investment even in the face of military risk.
The likely inflow of investment could offset the next risk, which remains the biggest source of uncertainty: the amount of external support in 2026. This year, Ukraine is expected to receive the equivalent of about $60 billion in international aid, an amount that ensures the stability of the economy, the currency market, and the budget. At the same time, only $15 billion in external financing has been secured for next year, which poses a serious challenge to exchange rate stability starting in late 2025. If international partners and allies do not take on broader commitments, this could put additional pressure on the hryvnia in forecasts and the formation of devaluation expectations and, as a result, in the actual behavior of currency market participants.
Overall, May confirms that there is no panic on the currency market, but a regime of heightened caution remains in place.
US dollar exchange rate: dynamics and analysis
In the second half of May, the dollar exchange rate against the hryvnia showed a steady downward trend with a gradual decline in all three key indicators: the buying rate, the selling rate, and the official NBU rate.
After reaching a local peak at the end of April (average selling rate in banks — 41.96 UAH/USD, buying rate — 41.32 UAH/USD), the dollar began to lose ground. From mid-May to the end of May, the cash selling rate fell to 41.74 UAH/USD, the buying rate to 41.17 UAH/USD, and the official NBU rate to 41.5 UAH/USD. All these movements took place without sharp fluctuations, within controlled volatility and in line with global trends.
Key factors behind the decline in the exchange rate:
Forecast:
Euro exchange rate: dynamics and analysis
Throughout May 2025, the euro-hryvnia exchange rate showed noticeable wave-like dynamics. From the end of April to the third decade of the month, there was a gradual decline from over 47.90 UAH (sale) to a local minimum of around 46.20 UAH (purchase) and 46.90 UAH (sale) on May 20–21. In the last working week of the month, the euro returned to growth, confirming the volatile nature of the EUR/UAH pair.
Main factors:
Forecast:
Recommendations for businesses and investors
In the second half of May, Ukraine’s currency market has been stable in the dollar segment and the euro/hryvnia pair has returned to calm after a period of peak volatility. At the same time, fundamental devaluation risks remain relevant. In these conditions, currency asset management requires maximum adaptability.
1. Liquidity is an absolute priority.
All currency assets must be readily available: term deposits, long bonds, or currency in instruments without early withdrawal rights are sources of risk. Preference should be given to instruments with flexible management.
2. Dollar/euro shares should be reviewed, but not aggressively increased.
Ø The euro has emerged from its peak growth phase and is stabilizing in a higher range. Now is not the time for active entry, but there is an opportunity to selectively reformat shares in the currency portfolio. New purchases should be made when spreads narrow.
Ø The dollar exchange rate is in a downward trend, and a decline to 41.00 UAH/USD is not an exception but a scenario. However, the risks for the hryvnia are growing. If there is no urgent need for hryvnia, hold on to your dollars. It will show growth in the fall or closer to the end of the year if the fundamental factors of devaluation pressure on the hryvnia are not eliminated, which is highly unlikely.
3. Spreads are the main indicator on the euro market.
Unlike the dollar, where the market is already balanced, in the EUR/UAH pair, it is the dynamics of the spread (buying and selling and deviation from the NBU exchange rate) that demonstrate a change in expectations and signal the likelihood of further movement. A narrowing is a signal to act, while a widening is a signal to pause.
4. A flexible, multi-scenario strategy instead of fixed benchmarks.
Uncertainty about the amount of international aid in 2026 is the main long-term risk.
Follow the news with a cool head — ignore emotions and focus on facts, while developing strategies based on several different exchange rate scenarios (pessimistic, baseline, optimistic) and testing the asset structure in each of them.
5. Short-term speculation — only with precise timing.
In the EUR/UAH pair, the potential margin is still limited and the risk is high. If you do not have quick tools and access to “entry” positions with a minimal market premium, it is better to hold off.
6. Do not weaken control over the hryvnia’s share.
The hryvnia remains stable, but the accumulation of excessive hryvnia mass is undesirable. Keep only operational liquidity, and hold the rest in hedged or conservative currency instruments.
7. Currency liberalization is a signal, not an invitation to act.
The easing of currency restrictions is positive news for investors, but its effect will only be felt in the middle or at the end of the year. Consider this factor as a prospect, not as a justification for immediate action.
This material has been prepared by the company’s analysts and reflects their expert, analytical, and professional judgment. The information presented in this review is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation for action.
The company and its analysts make no representations and assume no responsibility for any consequences arising from the use of this information.
All information is provided “as is,” without any additional guarantees of completeness, timeliness, or updates or additions. Users of this material should independently assess the risks and make informed decisions based on their own assessment and analysis of the situation from various available sources that they themselves consider sufficiently qualified.
Before making any investment decisions, we recommend consulting with an independent financial advisor.
REFERENCE
KYT Group is an international multi-service FinTech company that has been successfully operating in the non-bank financial services market for 16 years. One of the company’s flagship activities is currency exchange. KYT Group is one of the largest operators in this segment of the Ukrainian financial market, is included in the list of the largest taxpayers, and is one of the industry leaders in terms of asset growth and equity capital.
More than 90 branches in 16 major cities of Ukraine are located in convenient locations for customers and are equipped with modern equipment for the convenience, security, and confidentiality of each transaction.
The company’s activities comply with the regulatory requirements of the National Bank of Ukraine. KYТ Group adheres to EU standards of operation, with branches in Poland and plans for cross-border expansion into other European countries.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) last week, with almost no currency purchases, increased its sales on the interbank market by $130.95 million, or 21.0%, to $755.10 million, according to statistics on the regulator’s website.
The data published by the regulator during this period indicate a change in the situation on the cash currency market: the balance was negative every day, fluctuating from $2.0 million on Monday to $15.3 million on Tuesday, $9.2 million on Wednesday, and $12.0 million on Thursday.
The official hryvnia exchange rate fluctuated within a narrow range from 41.5470 UAH/$1 at the beginning of the week to 41.4983 UAH/$1 at the end of the week.
On the cash market, the hryvnia exchange rate remained virtually unchanged at the end of the week: the buying rate was around 41.42 UAH/$1 and the selling rate was 41.50 UAH/$1.
As noted by KYT Group experts, the approaching tax payment period, as well as seasonal activity in the energy sector and imports of energy carriers, are adding liquidity to the market, but are unlikely to lead to significant exchange rate fluctuations provided that key current conditions remain unchanged.
In their opinion, technical and psychological support for the market is provided by the growth of international reserves to $46.7 billion (+10% in April), which creates an additional reserve of stability for the “managed flexibility” policy.
In the short term (2-4 weeks), KYT Group expects the exchange rate to remain in the range of 41.20-41.80 UAH/USD with local fluctuations of ±20 kopecks under the influence of situational factors, provided that current circumstances remain unchanged.
According to the company, in the medium term (2-4 months), the exchange rate may remain stable or shift to 41.80-42.50 UAH/USD under the influence of moderate devaluation.
Source: https://interfax.com.ua/news/projects/1071980.html
Issue No. 1 – May 2025
Analysis of the current situation on the Ukrainian currency market
In early May, the Ukrainian currency market entered a phase of controlled volatility, with no excessive demand but heightened speculative expectations.
Overall, the situation remains relatively stable in the US dollar segment and tense in the euro segment.
Key facts and drivers:
Ø The dollar continues to trend downward, pressured by global rhetoric about Fed rate cuts and risks of stagnation in the US economy.
Ø The euro, on the contrary, continues to rise in price due to the European currency’s economic strength, pent-up demand for imports, and structural changes in currency preferences and preferences of businesses and the population toward the euro.
Ø The spread between the buying and selling of the euro remains at an abnormally high level of 1.5–2 UAH, signaling increased nervousness among market operators and expectations of further movement.
Internal factors
Ø The NBU continued its policy of cautious easing of currency restrictions in May: certain forward transactions for banks and clients were resumed, and the possibilities for financing foreign representative offices of companies and settlements with corporate cards abroad were expanded. At the same time, the monthly limit of UAH 500,000 was extended to more categories of transactions, which will partially reduce the attractiveness and weight of “gray” channels for capital withdrawal. This will add transparency to the market, and foreign exchange market statistics will become more representative due to the accurate and complete reflection of information on currency movements.
Ø At the same time, the NBU’s foreign exchange reserves rose to a record $46.7 billion (+10.1% in April) thanks to funds received from the EU (ERA Loans program) and the World Bank. The reduction in the volume of NBU interventions and net currency purchases by the population strengthened stability on the interbank market and helped keep the official and market exchange rates within the forecast range.
Ø The approaching tax payment period, as well as seasonal intensification of operations in the energy sector and imports of energy carriers, will add liquidity to the market, but are unlikely to lead to significant exchange rate fluctuations provided that key current conditions remain unchanged.
Ø Consumer inflation began to slow down in April, and the NBU expects it to fall to single digits as early as summer. This reduces pressure on the hryvnia, but the level of core inflation and the risks of a tariff shock remain compelling arguments against premature relaxation.
International factors
Ø At the global level, the situation remains ambiguous. The Fed has not changed its key rate, but continues to exchange information cautiously, given inflation risks, unemployment, and the threat of stagflation due to the Trump administration’s tariff policy. The “soft landing” scenario remains the baseline, but unwavering global confidence in the dollar is gradually eroding.
Ø At the same time, the euro is consolidating as a currency increasingly used in global trade. The potential strengthening of the EU’s political center, the acceleration of economic growth in the eurozone, the increase in consumption of European products in Ukraine, and the transition of many contracts to the euro are creating stable long-term demand.
Ø Stock and commodity markets are showing cautious optimism, with investors locking in profits after news of a possible deal between the US and the UK, as well as taking into account the likely resumption of negotiations and at least a temporary halt to Russian fire against Ukraine. However, market volatility remains high, with the global news background not conducive to predictability and stabilization.
Overview of currency dynamics and forecast
US dollar exchange rate: dynamics and analysis
In May, the dollar continued to trade in a relatively narrow range against the hryvnia, showing slight volatility and stable demand. The hryvnia gradually strengthened at the beginning of the month.
The exchange rate in the cash segment remained within the range of UAH 41.00–41.90/USD over the last four weeks, peaking on April 30, when the average selling rate in banks reached UAH 41.89/USD and the buying rate reached UAH 41.21/USD. This movement was fully synchronized with the official NBU exchange rate, indicating that the regulator’s policy is in line with market realities.
At the same time, average spreads between buying and selling rates remain stable (within 60–70 kopecks), without significant expansion, confirming the balance in the currency market and sufficient competition among its operators, particularly in the cash segment.
On the interbank market, the volume of foreign exchange transactions decreased, but the NBU’s interventions also declined, which suggests that the market is partially self-balancing without excessive involvement of the regulator.
Technical and psychological support for the market is provided by the growth of international reserves to $46.7 billion (+10% in April), which creates an additional buffer for the “managed flexibility” policy.
At the global level, the dollar remains under pressure due to fears of stagflation in the US economy. The Fed’s unchanged rate and Jerome Powell’s statement that there are no sufficient grounds for a rate cut in the near future are holding back the dollar’s decline, but are not creating preconditions for its strengthening. This situation does not create strong external pressure on the hryvnia exchange rate.
Forecast for the near term:
Ø Short term (2–4 weeks): the exchange rate will remain within the range of 41.20–41.80 UAH/USD with local fluctuations of ±20 kopecks under the influence of situational factors, provided that the current circumstances remain unchanged.
Ø Medium term (2–4 months): the exchange rate may remain stable or shift to 41.80–42.50 UAH/USD under the influence of moderate devaluation. The stabilization of the security situation could become a serious psychological factor influencing the market, driving consumption and stimulating business recovery.
Ø Long term (6+ months): the trend towards a slow devaluation of the hryvnia remains, as do its underlying factors, especially given the projected decline in international aid in 2026 and the increase in the budgetary burden. The target range is UAH 43.00–45.00/EUR in the event of the least favorable scenario.
Euro exchange rate
The euro exchange rate against the hryvnia in April and the first ten days of May showed a clearly volatile trajectory. Starting from April 15, the euro rose steadily, reaching a peak of 48.14 UAH/EUR at the end of April. This was the highest level in the last six months. After that, the market began to correct itself, and by mid-May, the euro had fallen back to 47.10 UAH (selling) and 46.20 UAH (buying).
The spread between buying and selling rates in the cash segment narrowed from 2 UAH to 0.6-1 UAH by mid-May, which is an important indicator of a decrease in nervousness and unpredictability of the exchange rate, as a result of which market operators stopped including increased risk and agitation premiums in their quotations.
Currently, market operators are still leaving themselves room for maneuver in anticipation of further fluctuations in the euro, as indicated by the slight lag of the official exchange rate behind real market quotations. The spread between the euro’s buying and selling rates is roughly equal to the NBU rate at 30-40 kopecks, which, if the trend continues, may indicate that currency market operators in all segments expect the euro to fall in the coming weeks.
The slowdown in the US economy, high uncertainty in negotiations on international customs agreements, volatility in the stock and commodity markets, and the rhetoric of the Fed all play in favor of the euro as a relatively stable alternative to the dollar, both globally and locally in Ukraine.
Forecast
Recommendations for businesses and investors
In light of the growth of the NBU’s reserves, the decline in consumer inflation, the stabilization of the dollar market, and the continued volatility of the euro/hryvnia pair, currency risk management strategies should be reviewed.
1. Liquidity is paramount.
The coming months will remain a period of controlled volatility. The primary task is to ensure quick access to foreign currency funds in any scenario. Long-term deposits, illiquid assets, and single currency exposure increase risks. All instruments should be subject to prompt review or withdrawal.
2. Adjust the share of the euro.
After rapid growth and peak values at the end of April, the euro entered a correction phase. The potential for growth remains in the medium term, but now is not the time for active position building. New exchange rate impulses should be closely monitored to avoid risks and choose the right moment for new transactions.
3. Currency interventions are a marker of stability.
The volume of NBU interventions is a sign of the market’s ability to self-regulate and maintain balance. Focus on exchange rate ranges without emotional reactions to news: the market is becoming less responsive to isolated information leaks and has developed a certain immunity to them.
4. Do not stick to fixed currency “rules.”
The hryvnia remains at risk of devaluation, but in the short term, the exchange rate is stable. This is not a reason to get rid of dollars, but it is also not a reason to buy currency en masse. Switch to scenario planning: 3–4 alternative scenarios with adaptive asset allocation for each of them.
5. Be cautious in short-term speculation.
Especially in the EUR/UAH pair. Even if the euro falls to 47 UAH, the margin is too small for comfortable trading. The potential return does not match the market risks without precise timing and liquidity. Most players are better off refraining from short bets.
6. Control the share of hryvnia.
Despite the stability, it is not worth accumulating excess hryvnia liquidity. Anything above the functional amount should be immediately transferred to instruments with a fixed exchange rate (for example, to a multi-currency structure or reserve).
7. Monitoring spreads is a new skill.
In the euro market, it is spreads, not absolute exchange rates, that have become the main indicator of nervousness and expectations among operators in recent weeks. They are more useful for forecasting than the exchange rate itself. In the event of a sharp expansion, it is better not to enter the currency, and in the event of a contraction, you should look for a comfort zone for placements or short maneuvers.
This material has been prepared by the company’s analysts and reflects their expert, analytical, and professional judgment. The information presented in this review is for informational purposes only and should not be considered a recommendation for action.
The company and its analysts make no representations and assume no responsibility for any consequences arising from the use of this information.
All information is provided “as is,” without any additional guarantees of completeness, timeliness, or updating or supplementation. Users of this material should independently assess the risks and make informed decisions based on their own assessment and analysis of the situation from various available sources that they themselves consider sufficiently qualified.
Before making any investment decisions, we recommend consulting with an independent financial advisor.
REFERENCE
KYT Group is an international multi-service FinTech company that has been successfully operating in the non-bank financial services market for 16 years. One of the company’s flagship activities is currency exchange. KYT Group is one of the largest operators in this segment of the Ukrainian financial market, is included in the list of the largest taxpayers, and is one of the industry leaders in terms of asset growth and equity capital.
More than 90 branches in 16 major cities of Ukraine are located in convenient locations for customers and are equipped with modern equipment for the convenience, security, and confidentiality of each transaction.
The company’s activities comply with the regulatory requirements of the National Bank of Ukraine. KYТ Group adheres to EU standards of operation, with branches in Poland and plans for cross-border expansion into other European countries.
Issue No. 2 – April 2025
The purpose of this review is to provide an analysis of the current situation on the Ukrainian currency market and a forecast of the hryvnia exchange rate against key currencies based on the latest data. We look at current conditions, market dynamics, key influencing factors, and likely scenarios.
Analysis of the current situation
At the end of April, Ukraine’s currency market showed that the main trends observed in the first half of the month remained unchanged: relative stability in the US dollar segment and continued strengthening of the euro against the hryvnia.
The key differences in April’s dynamics were a shift in the balance of supply and demand in favor of the hryvnia, a decrease in average daily demand for currency from the population, and smoother market behavior against a backdrop of moderate inflation and continued external support.
Key drivers:
Ø The dollar exchange rate remains stable with a moderate tendency to appreciate in favor of the hryvnia amid excess cash supply and global weakening of the dollar.
Ø The euro continues to appreciate under the influence of global processes, trade conflicts, and attempts by the new US administration to exert direct verbal pressure on the Fed, while demand for the euro continues to grow in Ukraine.
Ø The overall state of the currency market is characterized by high liquidity and low volatility in the dollar segment, while the euro segment is showing nervous growth with clear signs of speculative activity.
Domestic factors
Ø The National Bank of Ukraine maintains a policy of soft flexibility, keeping the discount rate unchanged and controlling the official exchange rate. The spread between the official and market exchange rates of the dollar remains minimal, while in the euro segment it is widening.
Ø Household activity in the cash market has been declining for the third month in a row: average daily demand fell from $41 million in February to $17 million in April. This indicates a decline in panic sentiment, market saturation, and/or the exhaustion of household purchasing power amid weak economic growth. Another factor could be the spring holiday cycle, which is a traditional period for selling foreign currency savings to celebrate and finance short-term vacations.
Ø At the same time, structural tensions remain, with imports exceeding exports by a factor of two, which remains a factor in the “washout” of foreign currency liquidity from the country. However, at the current stage, this can be fully offset by international assistance, which is expected to cover Ukraine’s foreign currency needs.
Ø The National Bank claims to have stable control over inflation expectations. Although March inflation peaks at around 15-16% annually, it is expected to decline to 8.7% year-on-year in the summer months, which, combined with the summer slowdown in business activity, will help reduce the population’s focus on currency. As a result, this may reduce the speculative motivation of currency market operators.
External factors
Ø At the global level, the main source of turbulence remains the trade wars initiated by the Trump administration, which have increased the risks of deglobalization and a weakening of the dollar due to its declining role as a reserve and settlement asset.
Ø This uncertainty is pushing global investors to invest or hedge through safe-haven assets such as gold, the Swiss franc, the Japanese yen, and the euro, which is currently capable of acting as a stabilizer.
Ø Additional pressure on the dollar came from Donald Trump’s open demand that the US Federal Reserve immediately lower its key interest rate, which created the risk of reducing the Fed’s independence and triggered a decline in bond yields and a fall in the US currency to its lowest level in six months.
General conclusions:
Ø The hryvnia remains stable despite external pressure and internal imbalances. Thanks to regular financing of the budget deficit and financial assistance from foreign partners, the market remains balanced.
Ø The dollar will remain in a narrow range, while the euro will continue to grow, maintaining high volatility.
Ø The cash currency market is in a phase of saturation, and the decline in demand for currency gives grounds to speak of relative market predictability.
Ø Speculative risks in the EUR/UAH pair are increasing — businesses should take into account possible short-term declines or impulsive jumps when planning operations.
Overview of dynamics and forecast of exchange rates
US dollar exchange rate
The dollar exchange rate against the hryvnia remains within a stable narrow corridor — from 41.10 to 41.80 UAH/USD with minimal volatility. In April, the market showed synchronization between the market and official exchange rates, which reduces risks for businesses and consumers. Revaluation pressure is intensifying amid declining demand from the population and increased supply of dollars.
During the second half of April, the dollar exchange rate remained stable, without sharp fluctuations. The lowest values were observed within the range of 41.10–41.35 UAH/USD for purchases, while sales remained within the range of 41.57–41.85 UAH/USD throughout the entire period.
Our short-term forecast for the dollar exchange rate, provided in the previous review, was fully confirmed within standard market deviations. The exchange rate dynamics in the dollar segment indicate high current predictability of the domestic market.
A distinctive feature of the period was the gradual smoothing and narrowing of the spread between buying and selling rates, indicating an increase in currency liquidity and a reduction in tension in the cash market. Other notable features of the second half of April included the movement of market exchange rates in line with the official NBU rate and with an almost equal spread between buying and selling rates. This indicates the effectiveness of the National Bank’s policy of smoothing out situational fluctuations, which reduces volatility and contributes to the formation of stable expectations among market participants.
Global factors also support the stability of the dollar in Ukraine — despite the weakening of the dollar on world markets, these processes are not being transmitted to domestic risks thanks to currency reserves and the flexibility of the NBU’s policy. Global processes have not created new pressure on the hryvnia, but in the medium term they may become a driver of capital outflows from Ukrainians and businesses from the dollar.
Forecast for the near term:
Euro
In the second half of April, the euro continued to rise against the hryvnia, confirming the previously observed upward trend. As we predicted in our previous review, market quotes confidently crossed the 47 UAH/EUR mark, and by the end of April, the average cash euro exchange rate consolidated at 48.00 UAH/EUR, This allowed domestic Ukrainian investors in euros to receive an exchange rate premium of 1.6 to 2.4 UAH per euro from the beginning of the month to the end of April.
Particular attention should be paid to the change in the spread between buying and selling rates. While at the beginning of the month the spread remained within 60–70 kopecks, by the end of April it exceeded 1 UAH for a number of cash currency market operators and reached 1.3–1.5 UAH for some operators. This is a sign of growing market nervousness and heightened expectations of further volatility. Market operators are trying to factor into prices the risks of a possible further strengthening of the euro or a correction amid speculative activity.
Another important signal is the significant difference between market rates and the official NBU rate. The euro exchange rate set by the regulator lags behind market values by an average of 30–50 kopecks, which is an indicator that the market is responding more quickly and flexibly to global currency trends, in particular the strengthening of the euro against the US dollar. The official dynamics are moving by inertia, while currency market operators are already factoring expectations of further changes into their quotes.
This lead indicates a growth in the premium for holding euros, which are increasingly being used not only as a means of payment but also as a savings instrument and, in some cases, as an attempt to profit from global turbulence.
Forecast:
Recommendations for businesses and investors
The dynamic situation on the markets prompts us to maintain our approach of dividing our recommendations into two separate blocks:
Ø basic recommendations — will help you avoid currency risks or minimize losses;
Ø updated recommendations — will help you navigate the revision of your investment and savings strategies.
Basic recommendations that remain relevant
Diversification of the currency portfolio is a basic strategy.
The euro is showing volatility and growth potential, while the dollar is weak against the backdrop of global events. It is recommended to keep part of your assets in euros, especially if you have corresponding liabilities. The dollar is a short-term liquidity and hedging tool.
Maximum liquidity is an unconditional priority.
All your currencies should be easily accessible for quick maneuvering — this is key given the global turbulence and political risks.
Keep the hryvnia in functional amounts.
The hryvnia remains stable, but the inflationary background and potential exchange rate risks in Q2–Q3 2025 do not allow for large hryvnia surpluses. If possible, avoid tying hryvnia liquidity in instruments with fixed terms or without the possibility of revising the yield.
Updated and supplemented recommendations
Change in currency share in the portfolio: smooth migration from the dollar to the euro
It is advisable to gradually rebalance the portfolio towards the euro. It is increasingly used in settlements and potentially offers a better exchange rate premium. However, turbulence in international currency markets requires constant monitoring of significant news and events, while not succumbing to the influence of sensational headlines and herd behavior. Only investors with nerves of steel, a cool head, and a clear strategy will emerge from the currency storm with profits or minimal losses.
Have a margin of safety and hedge your risks
Build buffers for forward exchange rate fluctuations: despite the upward trend of the euro and the downward trend of the dollar in the short term, there are “dips” and “bumps” in this pair and in relation to the hryvnia, which can cause losses or unexpected expenses.
Pay close attention to spreads — they are an indicator of market sentiment and a trend forecast
A widening spread on the euro is a signal that the market is nervous and expecting changes. At such times, it is better to avoid speculation and not make decisions under the influence of emotions. For experienced currency speculators, this is an excellent field and a good time for productive maneuvering, but for everyone else, there are risks of losses. The same applies to the dollar — reduce your focus on exchange rates and analyze spreads.
Scenario planning and regular reassessment
The market will continue to be turbulent for an indefinite period of time. Have alternative scenarios for currency behavior, especially for Q3–Q4, when a new devaluation cycle is most likely to begin.
This material has been prepared by the company’s analysts and reflects their expert, analytical, and professional judgment. The information presented in this review is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation for action.
The company and its analysts make no representations and assume no responsibility for any consequences arising from the use of this information. All information is provided “as is,” without any additional guarantees of completeness, timeliness, or updates or additions.
Users of this material should independently assess the risks and make informed decisions based on their own assessment and analysis of the situation from various available sources that they themselves consider sufficiently qualified. Before making any investment decisions, we recommend consulting with an independent financial advisor.
REFERENCE
KYT Group is an international multi-service FinTech company that has been successfully operating in the non-bank financial services market for 16 years. One of the company’s flagship activities is currency exchange. KYT Group is one of the largest operators in this segment of the Ukrainian financial market, is included in the list of the largest taxpayers, and is one of the industry leaders in terms of asset growth and equity capital.
More than 90 branches in 16 major cities of Ukraine are located in convenient locations for customers and are equipped with modern equipment for the convenience, security, and confidentiality of each transaction.
The company’s activities comply with the regulatory requirements of the NBU. KYT Group adheres to EU standards of operation, with branches in Poland and plans for cross-border expansion into European countries.
The National Bank reduced the sale of foreign currency on the interbank market last week by $221.77 million, or 41.4% – to $314.4 million, according to the regulator’s statistics on its website.
According to it, the National Bank even bought $10 million on the market last week, the last time it was in early March, while in general, since the beginning of the year, the purchase amounted to $33.5 million against $10.24 billion of sales.
Thus, net foreign exchange interventions of the NBU over the past week fell by 43.2% to $304.4m.
The data, which the regulator has managed to make public during this time, indicate a change in the situation on the cash market of currency: for the first time since the beginning of the year, the sale of currency exceeded the purchase. From $19.7 million on Monday, the net balance of sales decreased to $8.3 million on Tuesday, $1.2 million on Wednesday and $3.0 million on Thursday.
The official hryvnia/$1 exchange rate was volatile last week: from 41.3879 UAH/$1 on Monday, it strengthened to 41.1753 UAH/$1 on Wednesday before weakening again to 41.3955 UAH/$1 at the end of the week.
On the cash market, the hryvnia depreciated by 10-14 kopecks over the week as the margin widened: the buying rate went to UAH 40.95/$1, while the selling rate went to UAH 41.10/$1.
As analysts of KYT Group note, in early April the currency market of Ukraine continued to demonstrate relative stability in the dollar segment and noticeable strengthening of the euro: the dollar rate is declining under the influence of external weakness of the U.S. dollar, while the euro rate is growing both due to the global trend and structural demand for the Euro currency in Ukraine.
“In general, the Ukrainian currency market is characterized by growing liquidity, narrowing spreads and decreasing volatility against the dollar, which is evidence of the formation of relative predictability of further exchange rate trajectories,” KYT Group believes.
They noted that in the domestic market, the rates of purchase and sale have come close to the official rate of the NBU: market rates of both purchase and sale of the dollar began to move almost synchronously with the official, without significant deviations and equidistant from the official – +\- 25 kopecks, which reduces market volatility.
“In the short term (2-4 weeks), the dollar exchange rate is likely to move smoothly in the range of 41.10-41.80 UAH/$ with possible adjustments within 20-30 kopecks, associated with situational demand”, – predicted in KYT Group.
In their opinion, the medium-term perspective (2-4 months) provides for the possibility of returning to the range of 41.80-42.50 UAH/$ in case of inflation growth, import activity or pressure on the budget.
Issue #2 – March 2025
The purpose of this review is to provide an analysis of the current situation on the Ukrainian currency market and a forecast of the hryvnia exchange rate against key currencies based on the latest data. We analyze current conditions, market dynamics, key influencing factors, and likely scenarios.
Analysis of the current situation on the Ukrainian currency market
In the second half of March, Ukraine’s FX market remained relatively stable, showing predictable local fluctuations in the dollar and a more pronounced, albeit predictable, strengthening of the euro. Both developments were primarily driven by external factors, as the domestic FX market remained balanced due to high cash liquidity and active actions by the NBU.
The NBU’s informal signal to banks to raise deposit rates after the key policy rate hike is a classic soft pressure from the NBU, which is trying to keep hryvnia instruments attractive. One by one, banks raised hryvnia rates, confirming that they understood the NBU’s signals, which should potentially reduce demand for foreign currency from the population and encourage at least short- and medium-term savings in hryvnia, easing pressure on the exchange rate.
International factors affecting the market:
Ø The US Federal Reserve has been pursuing a consistent policy of lowering its key policy rate for several months now, clearly implementing a cycle of easing. This reduces the attractiveness of the dollar as an asset for investors and stimulates the flow of capital into alternative currencies and assets.
Ø In contrast, the European Central Bank gave positive signals about the improvement of the economic situation in the eurozone, which pushed the euro to a significant increase.
Ø The global market witnessed a moderate weakening of the US dollar and a strengthening of the euro, which became the main driver of changes in the exchange rates of key currencies in Ukraine.
Internal factors that influenced the foreign exchange market:
Ø Increased supply of cash foreign currency: according to the NBU, in February 2025, banks imported more than $1.08 billion in cash foreign currency to Ukraine, of which $749 million was in US dollars and $330 million in euros. This is a decrease compared to January ($1.77 billion), but remains high historically, ensuring high foreign exchange liquidity and exchange rate stability.
Ø In the dynamics of currency imports by banks, there is a well-established trend of increasing the share of euros in the total volume. From 13% at the beginning of 2024, the share of euros increased to more than 30% in 2025, reflecting the growing demand for euros among households and businesses.
Ø Deviations of cash exchange rates from the official exchange rate remain insignificant, which indicates that the regulator’s currency policy is effectively coordinated with market realities.
Overview of exchange rate dynamics
US dollar exchange rate
Ø In the second half of March, the dollar exchange rate against the hryvnia remained in the range of UAH 41.30-41.80 per dollar.
Ø The lowest value was recorded around March 13, after which the exchange rate gradually recovered.
Ø The spread between the bid and ask rates narrowed to 30-40 kopiykas compared to 50-60 kopiykas in February, indicating high liquidity and stability of the market.
Ø The deviation of market rates from the official NBU exchange rate remained minimal (± UAH 0.3), which is an indicator of the stability of expectations and the NBU’s predictable policy on the foreign exchange market.
Euro exchange rate
USD exchange rate forecast
Ø In the short term (2-4 weeks), the dollar is likely to remain in the range of UAH 41.25-42.00/$. The main factors will be maintaining high cash liquidity, the US Federal Reserve’s restrained policy, and the NBU’s active presence on the interbank market. Narrowing spreads and stable deviations from the official exchange rate give reason to expect low volatility in this market segment.
Ø In the medium term (2-4 months), demand for foreign currency may moderately increase amid higher budget spending, a pickup in business imports, and the seasonal effect of spring asset regrouping. In this case, the dollar could move up to the range of UAH 41.80-42.50/$.
Ø In the longer term (6+ months), a significant depreciation trend may resume with the potential for a shift toward UAH 45.00/$.
This scenario will be influenced by the general inflationary background in Ukraine, fiscal expectations for the exchange rate (budget target is 45 UAH/$), and risks with financing the state’s needs.
Ø However, the global monetary policy factor will remain restraining: if the US Federal Reserve moves to easing, the pressure on the hryvnia will be offset by global stability or even a weakening of the dollar.
Euro exchange rate forecast
In theshort term (2-4 weeks), the euro may consolidate in the range of 44.80-45.70 UAH/€ after the ultra-fast growth recorded in mid-March.
A correction phase or sideways movement is expected, which is typical for markets after a sharp move.
In the medium term (2-4 months), the euro’s dynamics will depend on the ECB’s decisions on interest rates and incentives, the state of the eurozone economy, and global demand for risky assets. In the baseline scenario, the exchange rate may remain in the range of 44.50-46.00 UAH/€. In the event of new positive signals from the EU, a retest of the 46.50 UAH/EUR level is possible.
In the long-term horizon (6+ months), the euro is more stable than the dollar due to structural market expectations, a gradual increase in its role in savings, and its growing role in foreign trade.
The forecast range is 45.00-46.50 UAH/€ with the potential for appreciation in case of sustained macro growth in the euro area.
Recommendations for businesses and investors
1. Diversification remains the basic strategy in a situation where the euro shows increased volatility and the dollar shows signs of structural weakening.
If you have liabilities in euros, it is advisable to gradually increase the share of this currency, but the dollar should be left as a short-term liquidity or hedge instrument.
2. Monthly review of the structure of foreign currency assets is relevant in the context of the NBU’s flexible currency policy, changes in external demand and potential exchange rate dynamics, especially if some assets are denominated in a currency other than the main operating currency.
3. Cautious currency speculation – only if you have the skills. Despite periods of short-term exchange rate volatility, especially in the euro, the current market is more predictable for experienced players, but carries significant risks for beginners.
Speculative strategies are justified only for those who have the resources and time to constantly monitor the market and have access to quick transactions at favorable rates.
4. The hryvnia should be maintained at its functional level. The current situation does not pose a threat of rapid devaluation, but it is not advisable to keep excess hryvnia liquidity. It should be used only to cover short-term expenses and to form reserves for unforeseen events.
5. For the first time in almost a year of currency market reviews, we can recommend considering short-term hryvnia deposits for 1-4 months, a logical tactic for “temporary parking” of free funds without currency risk in the context of banks raising interest rates to ~15% per annum, which are now at least slightly ahead of official inflation. For the same reasons, a short-term “parking” of free hryvnia in government bonds can be considered. Longer-term hryvnia investments are risky given the likely acceleration of inflation and a possible exchange rate shift in the second half of 2025, which is most likely to occur in the fall of this year. Yields on foreign currency deposits remain symbolic and do not cover the risks of liquidity ties.
6. Maximum liquidity is a top priority: in the face of geopolitical and economic turbulence, all foreign currency assets should be available for operational maneuver.
This material was prepared by the company’s analysts and reflects their expert, analytical professional judgment. The information presented in this review is for informational purposes only and cannot be considered as a recommendation for action.
The Company and its analysts make no representations and assume no liability for any consequences arising from the use of this information. All information is provided “as is” without any additional warranties of completeness, obligations of timeliness or updates or additions.
Users of this material should make their own risk assessments and make informed decisions based on their own assessment and analysis of the situation from various available sources that they consider to be sufficiently qualified. We recommend that you consult an independent financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
REFERENCE
KYT Group is an international multi-service product FinTech company that has been successfully operating in the non-banking financial services market for 16 years. One of the company’s flagship activities is currency exchange. KYT Group is one of the largest operators in this segment of the Ukrainian financial market, is among the largest taxpayers, and is one of the industry leaders in terms of asset growth and equity.
More than 90 branches in 16 major cities of Ukraine are located in convenient locations for customers and have modern equipment for the convenience, security and confidentiality of each transaction.
The company’s activities comply with the regulatory requirements of the NBU. KYT Group adheres to EU standards, having a branch in Poland and planning cross-border expansion to European countries.
