Difficult year awaits Ukraine in 2023: the public finance deficit is estimated at $3-4 billion, it is necessary to ensure the stability of the economy, and the IMF will provide support: an international forum will be convened in the near future to solve this problem, said the Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund Kristalina Georgieva.
“We need to learn how to ensure the sustainability of the economy. According to our preliminary estimates, three to four billion dollars are needed monthly,” she said at the second meeting of the “round table” of ministers to support Ukraine as part of the annual meeting of the IMF and the World Bank in Washington in Wednesday.
Responding to the call of the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky to organize an economic forum, which meets on a regular basis, and considers the macro-situation in the country, the lack of funding and solves the problem of its reduction, Georgieva said that such work is already underway.
“We will convene the forum as soon as possible,” the head of the IMF said.
She also noted that the Fund has a new platform for interaction, allowing for monitoring jointly with the board of directors, which is the way to a full-fledged program for Ukraine, which Zelensky called for.
“We are moving with you in the direction of a strong Ukraine,” Georgieva stressed.
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen noted that a new IMF program for Ukraine could be early next year.
Georgieva clarified that the Fund’s team, together with the Ukrainian team, immediately after the annual meeting of the IMF and the WB, will determine the macroeconomic framework and budget of Ukraine.
She expressed her hope that the war would end sooner rather than later. “But judging by what we see, we should be close to the Ukrainian people,” the head of the IMF said.
She recalled that Ukraine’s international partners have already mobilized $35 billion, a significant part of which has already been transferred, and called for further support, especially in the form of grants.
According to Georgieva, further needs will be determined, firstly, by the cost of social services, which depends on war and migration, and secondly, the cost of restoring vital infrastructure, which also depends on war and on prioritization.
“And thirdly, what are the energy needs of the country, how much needs to be imported to provide for people in Ukraine, and this depends, of course, on the horrors of war,” the managing director added.
She noted that the senseless war of Russia against Ukraine has sharply worsened the prospects for the global economy and brought the most dramatic consequences for the people of Ukraine.
As reported earlier, Finance Minister Sergei Marchenko said that the government estimates the need to finance the state budget deficit in 2023 at $3.5 billion per month.
The first meeting of such a “round table” was held at the spring meeting of the IMF and WB on April 21. It announced Ukraine’s monthly need of $5 billion to finance the state budget deficit in the context of the war unleashed by Russia.
The draft state budget of Ukraine for 2023, which was adopted in the first reading, provides for external financing of the deficit in the amount of $38 billion, or about $3.2 billion per month.
The negative balance of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-April 2022 decreased by almost 42 times compared to the same period in 2021 – to $29.6 million from $1,236.7 million, the State Statistics Service (Gosstat) reported on Tuesday.
According to its data, the export of goods from Ukraine for the reporting period compared with January-April 2021 decreased by 12.3% – to $16.712 billion, imports decreased by 17.5% – to $16.742 billion.
The State Statistics Service clarifies that in April this year, compared to March 2022, the seasonally adjusted volume of exports increased by 7.2%, to $2.727 billion, and imports, by 65.1%, to $2.78 billion.
The seasonally adjusted foreign trade balance in April 2022 was negative and amounted to $0.053 billion, which is better than in April 2021, when the seasonally adjusted foreign trade balance was also negative at $0.359 billion.
The State Statistics Service recalls that in March 2022 it was positive and amounted to $0.86 billion.
The export-to-import coverage ratio in January-April 2022 amounted to 1.00 (in January-April 2021 – 0.94).
The State Statistics Service specified that foreign trade operations were carried out with partners from 215 countries of the world.
The deficit of foreign trade in goods in January-February 2022 decreased by 1.15% to $0.59 billion compared to the same period in 2021, with exports growing by 37% to $11.57 billion, imports by almost 34.56%, to $12.17 billion, according to the State Customs Service.
According to the customs, the trade turnover of Ukraine in January-February grew by 36% compared to January-February 2021 and reached $23.74 billion.
According to the service, the deficit of foreign trade in goods in February fell by 16.5%, to $0.37 billion compared to February 2022, with an increase in exports by 22.5% to $5.54 billion, imports by almost 22%, to $5.91 billion.
Trade in February increased by 22.3% to $11.45 billion, according to data on the service’s website.
According to customs statistics for January-February 2022, Ukraine received the largest volume of trade during this time with China ($67.8 billion, export $24 billion, import $43.6 billion), Russia ($52.2 billion, export $17, 5 billion, import $34.6 billion), Poland ($39.6 billion, export $18.6 billion, import $21 billion).
As reported, in 2021, the deficit of foreign trade in goods amounted to $5.1 billion compared to $4.72 billion in 2020. Import of goods at the end of the year increased by 35.6% compared to 2020, to $73.3 billion, export by 38.3%, to $68.2 billion.
The deficit of the Ukrainian state budget amounted to 1.4% of GDP in January-November, while 5.5% of GDP was projected in the law on the state budget, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said.
“Thanks to the balanced fiscal and debt policy, the state budget deficit amounted to only 1.4% of GDP over 11 months,” the prime minister said, opening a government meeting on Wednesday.
The deficit of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods over January-August 2021 decreased by 33.9% compared to the same period in 2020, to $1.731 billion from $2.619 billion, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine reported on Wednesday.
According to its data, exports of goods from Ukraine over the specified period increased by 35.6% compared to the same period in 2020, to $41.788 billion, and imports – by 30.1%, to $43.519 billion.
The State Statistics Service clarified that in August, compared with July 2021, the seasonally adjusted volume of exports increased by 1.9%, to $6.008 billion, imports – by 0.6%, to $6.089 billion.
The seasonally adjusted foreign trade balance in August 2021 was negative and amounted to $80 million, which is better than the previous month ($156 million).
The coverage of imports by exports in eight months of this year amounted to 0.96% (over the same period in 2020 – 0.92%).
The State Statistics Service specified that foreign trade operations were carried out with partners from 231 countries of the world.
The state budget in January-June 2021 had a deficit of UAH 43.2 billion, and the general fund deficit was almost UAH 50.2 billion, the State Treasury Service of Ukraine has reported.
According to the data on its website, the state budget deficit in June 2021 amounted to UAH 9.47 billion, including the deficit of the general fund reached UAH 18.4 billion.
As the State Treasury Service said, borrowings in the first six months of 2021 amounted to UAH 264.7 billion, including external – UAH 51.5 billion, while repayments for the specified period reached UAH 231 billion, including on external liabilities – almost UAH 24.7 billion.
According to the State Treasury Service, privatization in January-June of this year brought UAH 1.048 billion, while at the end of the year UAH 12 billion is expected to be received under this item.
In general, state budget receipts in the first half of the year amounted to almost UAH 592 billion, including UAH 505.9 billion in the general fund, and expenditures reached UAH 633.6 billion, including UAH 558.7 billion in the general fund, according to the data of the State Treasury Service.
