Investment company Dragon Capital is completing the creation of two new investment funds with a total volume of approximately $609 million, according to the company’s founder and CEO Tomas Fiala.
According to him, the first fund, worth $200 million, will focus on small and medium-sized businesses with a turnover of up to EUR50 million.
“Next month, we will have our first closing at just over $100 million, and the second in 2026, where we will reach $200 million. We are already working on a pipeline of several dozen projects, where we are selecting which companies to invest in, and we are mainly buying majority stakes in companies,” Fiala said at the Global Outlook: Strategic Momentum conference organized by the European Business Association (EBA) in Kyiv on Friday.
According to him, the second fund, worth EUR350 million, will focus on infrastructure investments. Its first project will be in the energy sector, where Dragon Capital has already invested its own funds.
By the end of the year, the company plans to launch 65 MW of generating capacity—batteries and gas piston stations—and is also preparing projects for another 200 MW, which are planned to be implemented by the end of next year.
Fiala also said that last month the company invested more than UAH 300 million in the capital of its bank through subordinated debt. In addition, Dragon Capital invested $30 million in the energy sector in 2025 and expects to attract a loan from the EBRD for EUR21 million by the end of the year to increase its investment in this sector to over $50 million.
At the same time, he noted that private investors are still cautious due to the risks of war, while the main participants in the funds are currently international financial organizations and Scandinavian sovereign wealth funds.
“There are those who are watching, but they will mostly be ready to make the investment itself, either if it is very cheap or after the war, after the truce, because the risks are high that something will fly in — we ourselves had about five of our assets destroyed at the beginning of the war, and even recently,” he added.
Dragon Capital is one of the largest investment groups in Ukraine in the field of investment and financial services, providing a full range of investment banking and brokerage services, direct investments, and asset management for institutional, corporate, and private clients. The company was founded in 2000 in Kyiv. According to founder and CEO Tomas Fiala, the group’s investment portfolio currently includes nearly 50 different companies or real estate projects. Between 2015 and 2021, the company invested approximately $700 million in Ukraine, excluding reinvestments, and plans to invest $100 million in 2025.
Reaching an agreement on a long-term ceasefire could accelerate Ukraine’s real GDP growth in 2025 to 3.5-5.5% year-on-year from 2.9% in 2024, thanks to improved economic sentiment and the start of large-scale reconstruction, which will offset the reduction in defense spending, while if the war continues, growth will slow to 2.5%, according to an updated forecast published by investment company Dragon Capital.
“Although weak economic activity in the first quarter of 2025 will be partially offset by better prospects for the energy sector, we have lowered our real GDP growth forecast for 2025 by 0.5 percentage points (percentage points) to 2.5% in the “continuing war” scenario,” the company said in a statement on Tuesday.
According to the statement, the forecast was also lowered by 0.5 percentage points in the event of a prolonged ceasefire.
According to Dragon Capital’s forecast, annual inflation will begin to decline in June-July amid continued easing of fundamental pressures and a high base of comparison in the food segment in the second half of last year.
“We forecast consumer inflation to slow to 8.1% y/y by the end of 2025 in the ‘ongoing war’ scenario and to 9-10% y/y in the ‘ceasefire’ scenario,” the release says.
Regarding the hryvnia exchange rate, Dragon Capital notes that in the first quarter of 2025, the NBU allowed the hryvnia to strengthen against the US dollar by 1.4% to 41.5 UAH/USD after a long period of controlled devaluation. The company believes that this strengthening of the hryvnia was the NBU’s response to high inflation, significant external financing, the global weakening of the dollar, and a seasonal decline in demand for foreign currency.
“We expect the NBU to return to a controlled and gradual weakening of the hryvnia in the second half of the year, when inflation rates begin to decline. However, given the significant amount of financial assistance, we have raised our forecast for NBU reserves to $59 billion (from $41 billion) and lowered our year-end exchange rate forecast to 44 UAH/USD (-4.4% y/y; previous forecast — 45 UAH/USD),” the release said.
Dragon Capital experts added that achieving a sustainable ceasefire will contribute to a slower devaluation of the hryvnia in the second half of the year, as fundamental pressure on prices will be higher and the balance of payments situation will improve due to a slowdown in private capital outflows and continued external financial assistance.
“Going forward, the exchange rate will depend on the volume of external financing and private capital flows, while the foreign trade deficit will remain significant due to structural changes in the economy,” the release said.
As reported earlier on Tuesday, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development revised its forecast for Ukraine’s real GDP growth in 2025 to 3.3% from 3.5% expected in February and kept its forecast for 2026 at 5.0%, provided that Russia’s war against Ukraine ends.
At the end of February, the International Monetary Fund also revised its forecast for Ukraine’s economic growth in 2025, lowering it by 0.5 percentage points compared to its previous forecast to 2-3%, and the World Bank from 6.5% to 2%.
In April, the NBU worsened its forecast for Ukraine’s economic growth in the current year to 3.1% from 3.6% in its previous macroeconomic forecast in January, and in the next forecast, from 4.0% to 3.7%.
Dragon Capital, a Kyiv-based investment company that invested about $700 million in Ukraine between 2015 and 2021, excluding reinvestments of several hundred million more, plans to invest $100 million in 2025 due to improved macroeconomic predictability and economic growth, anInterfax-Ukraine correspondent reports.
“In the middle of last year, we started considering new investments. This year, we plan to make about $100 million in new investments,” owner and CEO Tomas Fiala said at a conference titled ‘Logistics as a Driver of Economic Growth’ organized by the We Build Ukraine think tank in Kyiv on Tuesday.
The businessman added that it will be mainly financed by his own money and co-investors’ equity, while a smaller part, “maybe up to a quarter,” will be borrowed.
He clarified that out of the $700 million of investments in 2015-2021, the share of debt financing was about a third, up to $250 million, of which 80% has already been repaid, but there was also a significant portion of private Western investors, either European or American.
“We really believe that 2025 is the first year during the war when we have much better macroeconomic predictability. We (Ukraine – IF-U) have fully received committees to finance our budget deficit for the whole of 2025 and almost the whole of 2026,” Fiala explained the readiness to resume investments.
He reminded that currently, taking into account the $50 billion financing of Ukraine under the ERA instrument from frozen Russian assets, the total confirmed financing of the country is $56 billion, against the need to finance the budget deficit in 2025 of $40 billion.
“That’s if there is no truce, but if it happens, we will need almost $10 billion less money,” said the owner of Dragon Capital.
He added that, given this situation, a fairly stable exchange rate and economic growth can already be predicted in 2025: by 3% if the war continues, and by 5-7% if it ends.
“We are not the only ones paying attention to the ceasefire negotiations. You can look at the following “barometer” – the prices of Ukrainian Eurobonds traded in London. These are dozens of foreign investors who are assessing Ukraine’s risks. The prices of these bonds have been rising for the last 2 years, but this growth has accelerated since October last year,” Fiala said.
According to him, new investors are assessing the Ukrainian risk through sovereign Eurobonds, focusing on yields of 13-14% per annum – this is the rate at which they are willing to buy the Ukrainian government’s debt.
Fiala added that investors are willing to buy corporate bonds of reliable Ukrainian companies such as MHP and Kernel with a yield of about 10%, and sometimes even 9%.
Dragon Capital is one of the largest investment and financial services groups in Ukraine, providing a full range of investment banking and brokerage services, private equity, and asset management to institutional, corporate, and private clients. The company was founded in 2000 in Kyiv.
In 2025, the beneficiary of Dragon Capital Investments Limited, Tomas Fiala, will start construction of a new plant for the production of Truskavetska mineral water in Lviv region with a capacity of 1 million bottles per day, which will allow Truskavetska to approach the capacity of the market leader Morshynska and overtake Karpatska Dzherelna, Forbes Ukraine reports.
According to the report, the investment company Fiala is already designing a new plant for the production of Truskavetska. Prior to that, it acquired two existing producers of this brand. The reason for the construction of the new plant is the inability to increase the existing capacity.
The new mineral water plant will be located on the territory of the Bobernia tract, next to the Solonytsia River, which flows into the Truskavets Reservoir. The plant will occupy an area of 20 hectares, but the final size of the site will depend on the results of the design. The production will be located near the Truskavets Ring Road.
“It’s good for logistics,” Fiala said, adding that the Aqua-Eco plant, which is already owned by Dragon Capital, is located nearby.
The company does not disclose the amount of future investments. “They amount to more than EUR35 million in the plant,” said Andriy Kulchynsky, mayor of Truskavets.
According to Serhiy Ustenko, owner of Carpathian Mineral Waters, the amount will be more modest – about EUR20 million.
For the company, such an investment is very significant, as the total revenue of Aqua-Eco LLC and Firm T.S.B. LLC in 2023 amounted to UAH 487.9 million. At the same time, only Firm T.S.B. LLC made a net profit of – UAH 6.7 million, the publication cited data from the YouControl service.
The company with foreign direct investment, Aqua-Eco LLC, is engaged in bottling mineral table water under the brands Truskavetska Aqua-Eco, Truskavetska Kryshtaleva, and Truskavetska Zapovedna. Since 1827, Truskavetska natural mineral water has been produced from the wells of the landscape reserve in the resort of Truskavets, Lviv region.
As reported, in August 2021, the Antimonopoly Committee of Ukraine (AMCU) allowed Dragon Capital Investments Limited (Nicosia, Cyprus) to buy Frolovia Limited (Nicosia, Cyprus), which owns the Truskavets Mineral Water Plant (Aqua-Eco LLC) in Ukraine, which bottles mineral water under the Truskavetska brand.
According to the website of IDS Borjomi Ukraine, as of August 2021, the group of companies included the Morshyn Mineral Water Plant Oscar and Truskavets Mineral Water Plant (both in Lviv region), Myrhorod Mineral Water Plant (Poltava region), IDS Aqua Service distribution company, and the Holoprystan Plant of Nova Kom (Kherson region).
Dragon Capital Investments Limited is a part of the Dragon Capital group of companies, the ultimate beneficiary of which is businessman Tomas Fiala.
Dragon Capital is one of the largest investment groups in Ukraine in the field of investment and financial services, providing a full range of investment banking and brokerage services, private equity, asset management for institutional, corporate and private clients. The company was founded in 2000 in Kyiv. One of Dragon Capital’s key business areas is real estate investments.
CONSTRUCTION, DRAGON CAPITAL, LVIV REGION, PLANT, Truskavetska
Dragon Capital Investment Group has revised its forecast for the average annual hryvnia exchange rate in 2024 from 37.3 UAH/$1 to 40 UAH/$1, and the exchange rate at the end of the year from 39.0 UAH/$1 to 42.0 UAH/$1, but maintained its GDP growth forecast at 4.0%.
“We expect the hryvnia to continue to weaken against the US dollar in a controlled manner. We have revised our forecast due to the change in the National Bank’s approach to managing the exchange rate in early 2024,” the group said in a press release on Tuesday.
According to Dragon Capital’s updated estimates, external financial support for Ukraine’s budget from partners this year will amount to $37 billion and will support the economy’s resilience.
“Although the approval of the support packages has been significantly delayed and the total amount of funding will be slightly less than we expected ($40 billion), these funds will be sufficient to keep the NBU reserves at current record levels around the current record $43 billion (previous forecast – $45 billion) and to finance the budget deficit without issuing,” the release says.
However, the investment group adds, the budget situation remains tense and will require mobilization of internal resources. The law on the state budget for 2024 needs to be significantly revised, as the defense and security expenditures envisaged in it are clearly not enough to adequately finance the army throughout the year.
“The updated law should also take into account the impact of increased mobilization, which, according to our estimates, will cost the budget of all levels $1.5-2.0 billion (including the indirect impact on revenues). In general, military spending in the general fund of the state budget will need to be increased by at least $9 billion to keep it at the level of last year,” Dragon Capital believes.
At the same time, the company believes that this increase can be partially financed by reducing non-military expenditures (for example, to service external commercial debt after its restructuring) and additional revenues (tax on unexpected bank profits, increased transfers from the NBU, and increased excise rates on fuel).
In general, the investment group expects the government to slightly reduce the public administration budget deficit this year to about UAH 1.6 trillion from UAH 1.7 trillion last year (excluding grants) due to an organic increase in tax revenues from economic growth, additional measures to fill the budget revenue side and a restrained approach to non-defense spending.
“The hryvnia depreciation will not have a decisive impact on the budget deficit dynamics, as part of the military spending is directed to the purchase of imported goods and compensates for tax revenues that depend on the hryvnia exchange rate. However, a weaker hryvnia helps to reduce the need to finance the budget deficit with domestic borrowing, as it increases the hryvnia equivalent of international aid,” the press release said.
At the same time, the revision of the exchange rate forecast led to a decrease in estimates of Ukraine’s nominal GDP this year to $190 billion from $201 billion and an increase in the forecast of public debt at the end of the year from 85% of GDP to 92% of GDP, although in absolute terms the forecast was raised slightly – from $164 billion to $166 billion.
Dragon Capital assumes that the NBU will change its approach to managing the exchange rate in accordance with its own assessment of the balance of risks to financial stability. At the same time, the record level of international reserves will allow the central bank to continue to keep the situation in the foreign exchange market under control and avoid uncontrolled devaluation, provided that domestic economic policy is aimed at maintaining macroeconomic stability and international partners continue to provide financial support in the minimum necessary amounts, the investment group emphasized.
Given the slowdown in inflation and stable inflation expectations, moderate devaluation does not pose risks to macrofinancial stability, but supports export competitiveness, helps the budget by reducing funding needs, and reduces the loss of reserves from the initial effects of currency liberalization, Dragon Capital believes.
“We expect that the NBU will take a balanced approach to determining the further dynamics of the hryvnia exchange rate, as the population’s sentiment remains vulnerable in the context of the war, and it is unlikely to determine the equilibrium level of the exchange rate using standard methods given the specifics of the balance of payments structure caused by the war,” the press release said.
According to it, the inflation forecast for 2024 has been improved from 8% to 7.6%, and the discount rate at the end of the year has been reduced to 13% from 15%.
The investment group explained that the forecast of GDP growth in 2024 by 4.0% was maintained by the recovery of exports by seaports and the development of the military-industrial complex, which will be the main drivers of economic growth this year and will outweigh the negative impact of increased mobilization and electricity shortages, assuming that the authorities will be able to organize mobilization in such a way as to limit the negative impact on business.
“According to our estimates, given the existing capacity of the power grid and current import opportunities, the electricity shortage will be quite moderate in summer and autumn, which will allow enterprises in most industries to maintain production volumes at levels close to current levels and therefore increase them compared to 2023,” the investment group believes. The growth will be especially noticeable in sectors that were depressed due to the lack of maritime exports, namely ore production, metallurgy, and cargo transportation, Dragon Capital added.
The company also predicts that thanks to the resumption of seaports and a larger-than-expected agricultural harvest last year, exports of major commodities will grow by 35% to 109 million tons this year, which will help keep the foreign trade deficit from widening further (its estimate has been reduced to $29.0 billion from $32.9 billion), despite rising imports and lower global agricultural prices.
Kherson-based Gistion LLC is the new owner of Amtel. The Antimonopoly Committee of Ukraine granted Histion permission to acquire Amtel through the purchase of the International Logistics Company in November 2023. The change of ownership took place in March 2024.
Dragon Capital did not disclose the amount of the deal. According to Forbes, based on these estimates, the total cost of the logistics complex could have been $35-40 million. A source familiar with the deal notes that this figure is not true and that the deal is much higher.
Amtel is a Class A logistics complex with a total area of 100,208 square meters. It was the largest property in Dragon Capital’s portfolio.
The founders of Histion are Oleg Lebedenko and Gennady Girin. The entrepreneurs own the New Style Door Factory trademark.
Girin is the CEO of the 33 m² chain, which unites 25 construction supermarkets. He also owns the company’s trademark and a stake in the Suvorovskiy shopping center in Kherson. Lebedenko owns the Betonera building materials trademark.
Before the full-scale war, Dragon Capital Group owned 778,000 square meters. Now it owns about 531,000 square meters of commercial real estate: during the war, the company lost three properties and sold three more.
In addition to the sale of Amtel, in 2022-2023, the group found new owners for two office centers in Kyiv.
The office center on Dilova Street in Kyiv was acquired by the Red Cross Society of Ukraine, according to the State Register of Real Property Rights.
In 2023, Soft Construct Limited bought the Seasons of the Year business center. Its beneficiaries are Armenian citizens Vigen and Vage Badalyan. They are co-owners of the global gambling software developer BetConstruct. In December 2022, they withdrew from the co-founders of the bookmaker Bbet Ukraine, according to YouControl data.
