On Monday, the electricity consumption limits in Kyiv will be enough to cover 81% of the capital’s needs, DTEK said in an update on stabilization blackouts for May 27.
“Kyiv, Kyiv region, Odesa, Donetsk, and Dnipro regions: as instructed by Ukrenergo, the outage schedules will be in effect from 06:00 to 24:00,” the company said in a statement posted on its Telegram channel.
It also emphasizes: “Kyiv. The limits set by Ukrenergo will be enough for an average of 81% of the capital’s needs.”
As reported earlier, on Monday, May 27, blackout schedules will be reintroduced for household and industrial consumers in all regions of Ukraine.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), taking into account Russia’s recent terrorist attacks on energy infrastructure, has included in its macroeconomic forecast an average electricity deficit of about 5% in 2024-2025, while estimating electricity imports at $0.8 billion in 2024 and $0.6 billion in 2025.
“If there are no new significant destructions, the NBU estimates that the electricity deficit, even taking into account imports and partial restoration/installation of new generating capacities, will be 5-7% on average in the second to fourth quarters of 2024,” the NBU said in its April inflation report, which was recently released.
This means restrictions on consumption for both households and industry. Due to uneven consumption throughout the day during peak hours, the deficit may reach 25-30% and be higher in energy-deficient regions, the National Bank explained.
“The deficit will persist in 2025 (an average of 7% in the first quarter and 3% by the end of the year),” its experts believe.
According to the report, a significant electricity deficit is likely to occur in the second quarter of 2024 due to a decrease in floods and the need to repair nuclear power units. In the future, the electricity deficit may increase with increased consumption in the summer and during the heating season.
The NBU reminded that the integration of Ukraine’s power system with the European one allows for the import of 1.7 GW of capacity (as authorized by ENTSO-E), which is used to compensate for temporary shortages of generating capacity during peak consumption hours and to balance the power system. However, due to significant fluctuations in consumption, in particular in neighboring countries, the import capacity is likely to be less than the maximum volume. In addition, import coverage is limited due to imbalances in the grid, including low transmission capacity in some regions due to significant damage.
It is pointed out that the risk of increased Russian attacks on energy infrastructure remains high for both production and distribution capacities. In the event of further damage, GDP growth will be lower than in the baseline scenario (3% in 2024 and 5.3% in 2025), and price increases will be higher due to higher costs resulting from the use of more expensive energy sources.
“However, the level of readiness of businesses and households for potential electricity outages is higher than in 2022-2023, which will limit the negative impact of the electricity shortage on the economy,” the NBU said.
JSC Energy Company of Ukraine (ECU) is increasing electricity imports from the EU to compensate for losses in the Ukrainian power grid due to hostile attacks. Starting from mid-March, the daily volume of imports by the state-owned trader has increased by an average of 2 times.
The company continues to import electricity from Slovakia and Romania, and in March it also started supplying electricity from Hungary. Today, the company is the second largest importer of electricity in Ukraine.
“Over the past two years, Ukraine, together with the EU, has significantly increased its technical and organizational capabilities for electricity imports, which now plays a crucial role in the stable energy supply of consumers,” said Vitaliy Butenko, CEO of the Energy Company of Ukraine. “Given the continuing massive attacks on energy facilities, the Government of Ukraine continues to actively cooperate with European partners to obtain additional import opportunities.
Reference
Energy Company of Ukraine (ECU) is a national energy trading company that offers comprehensive solutions for the purchase, sale and management of energy resources. The company was established in 2022 without attracting or transferring state assets or property. Revenues are generated by high-tech trading products and instruments.
The company is one of the TOP-5 traders in Ukraine in terms of electricity sales, a leader in cross-border energy trading, and a TOP-2 trader of green electricity.
The company established the first state-owned balancing group of electricity market participants, which is now the second largest in Ukraine. The company’s customers generate 10% of Ukraine’s GDP. The company is 100% owned by the state.
On Saturday, the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine invalidated Resolution No. 775 of July 7, 2022 “On Imposing Special Obligations on Electricity Market Participants Engaged in Electricity Export Operations to Ensure Public Interests in the Functioning of the Electricity Market During Martial Law.”
According to the government’s representative in parliament, Taras Melnychuk, this was done “in order to create preconditions for increasing electricity exports to the unified energy system of Ukraine.”
Ukraine’s Cabinet of Ministers is considering raising electricity tariffs in the wake of Russia’s new attacks on the energy sector, Energy Minister Herman Galushchenko said in an interview with Bloomberg.
“Depending on the situation in July and August, we will ask people to save as much as possible. The Russians will not be able to cause a repeat of the blackouts of 2022 and 2023. Even in the event of huge losses, we will have a basic generation that will cover 30% to 50% of our needs,” the minister said.
At the same time, Galushchenko did not rule out an increase in electricity tariffs for households and said that the government is exploring various ways to finance the repair of its energy assets.
“Today the situation is even more complicated than last year, as we have lost a lot of hydropower production and are forced to carry out scheduled repairs of nuclear power units,” he said.
The minister emphasized that Russia’s bombing of Ukrainian energy facilities in recent weeks was more extensive and better planned than the attacks of the previous two years, disabling generating capacity and limiting electricity supplies. As a result, restoring equipment and protecting the power grid have become key priorities for the government, although it is struggling to assess the extent of the damage.
“The destruction was extensive – in power generation and transmission. The situation is complicated. We still do not understand the extent of the damage, as many facilities are still in ruins and we cannot get to them,” explained Galushchenko.
In addition, in the spring of 2024, thermal and hydroelectric power plants became the main targets of Russian strikes. These attacks threaten not only electricity losses but also environmental disasters, Galushchenko said.
“Attacks on hydroelectric power plants are terrorist acts and war crimes, as they affect not only energy production but also the operation of dams on rivers,” the minister said.
Russia’s goal is to destroy Ukraine’s economy, Galushchenko said, adding that more damage to the power system would make it harder to overcome this summer’s consumption peaks.
“We will definitely communicate with people. Everyone wants to live comfortably, but we have to take into account the fact that there are restrictions now,” the minister concluded.
Bloomberg, CABINET OF MINISTERS OF UKRAINE, ELECTRICITY, Herman Galushchenko, tariff increase
During the four months of the 2023-2024 heating season, electricity consumption by the Ukrainian industry amounted to about 9.38 billion kWh, which is 23% more than in November-February 2022-2023 (7.61 billion kWh).
“Due to the stable operation of the power grid, the Ukrainian industry increased electricity consumption by 23% during the heating season,” the Ministry of Energy of Ukraine said on Wednesday.
At the same time, in November 2023, the growth was 25.75% compared to the same period of the previous year, in December – 37.56%, in January 2024 – 27.58%, and in February – 6.17%.
“The development of industry and the economy is impossible without the stable operation of the power system. This is ensured primarily due to large-scale repairs in the energy sector, which will continue in the future, and our military, which protects the infrastructure from enemy attacks,” said Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko.
During this period, electricity consumption by households also increased by almost 12% – 12.64 billion kWh versus 11.3 billion kWh.
According to the Ministry of Energy, in November-February 2023/2024, Ukrainian power generating enterprises produced more than 41.53 billion kWh of electricity, which is 16% higher than the production volume for the same period in the autumn-winter period (AWP) 2022/2023.
More than half of this electricity was generated by Ukrainian NPPs – 22.17 billion kWh, which is 22% more than in the four months of the previous Winters.
At the same time, HPPs increased electricity production by 7.5% to 4.16 billion kWh, TPPs by 10% to 13 billion kWh, and RES by 25% to 2.03 billion kWh.
