According to Fixygen, the cryptocurrency market is ending the week of September 14–18 with a moderate rebound following sharp volatility: Bitcoin has returned to around $78,000, Ethereum is holding above $2,500, although U.S. spot ETFs recorded net outflows, and the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in more than three years.
According to CoinGecko data as of September 18, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $78,100, Ethereum at $2,510, BNB at around $750, and XRP at around $1.33. The total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market is approximately $2.77 trillion, with a daily trading volume of about $93 billion. Over the past seven days, Bitcoin has risen by about 1%, Ethereum by 1.2%, BNB by more than 5%, and XRP by approximately 1.5%.
The start of the week was significantly more volatile. On September 14, Bitcoin was trading around $78,200, but by September 15, it had fallen to approximately $75,600. The next day, prices remained near $76,100, after which the market began to recover through Friday.
One of the main factors putting pressure on the market was the decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve. On September 16, the Fed unanimously raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points—to 3.75–4%. The U.S. central bank attributed the decision to persistently high inflation. This marked the Fed’s first rate hike since 2023.
An additional source of uncertainty for the crypto industry was the U.S. Senate vote on H.R. 3633, known as the CLARITY Act, which aims to establish a comprehensive regulatory framework for the digital asset market and delineate the respective authorities of the SEC and the CFTC. On September 15, a procedural vote to move the bill to the floor ended with 49 votes in favor and 50 against, while three-fifths of the Senate’s votes were required for passage.
Against this backdrop, institutional flows into cryptocurrency ETFs remained negative for most of the week. According to Farside Investors, over the four trading sessions from September 14–17, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a combined net outflow of approximately $427 million. Following an inflow of $159.9 million on Monday, investors withdrew $450.4 million on Tuesday and $295.9 million on Wednesday. On Thursday, the trend reversed, with a net inflow of $159.5 million. Data for Friday had not yet been compiled at the time this review was prepared.
The performance of Ethereum ETFs was even weaker. Over the same period, net outflows from U.S. spot Ethereum funds totaled approximately $284 million. On Monday, the funds attracted $121.1 million, but over the next three trading sessions, they lost $142 million, $224.1 million, and $39.3 million, respectively.
At the same time, at the end of the week, the crypto industry received a positive regulatory signal from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). On September 17, the SEC introduced the so-called Innovation Exemption—a temporary five-year regime that, under certain conditions, allows for the trading of tokenized shares of U.S. companies via blockchain infrastructure and permissioned AMM pools. The SEC emphasized that tokenized shares must grant holders the same rights as the corresponding traditional securities.
The news boosted companies involved in digital assets and was one of the factors behind the recovery in market sentiment at the end of the week. In Friday’s trading, Coinbase shares rose by more than 3%, Strategy by about 4%, and Robinhood by 3.5%, while Bitcoin climbed back to the $78,000 range.
At the same time, the global macroeconomic backdrop remains challenging for risk assets. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds exceeded 5% this week, and the price of Brent crude remained above $100 per barrel amid geopolitical tensions and risks to energy supplies. High oil prices exacerbate inflationary risks and may support a tighter monetary policy by central banks, which traditionally curbs demand for crypto assets.
Thus, according to Fixygen’s assessment, the main outcome of the week was the resilience of the largest cryptocurrencies in the face of a simultaneous deterioration in the monetary and regulatory environment. Bitcoin closed the previous week near $77,100 and, as of September 18, is trading above $78,000, while the crypto market’s total market capitalization rose from approximately $2.73 trillion to $2.77 trillion.
At the same time, negative outflows from ETFs indicate that the recovery has not yet been accompanied by a steady return of large institutional capital. Next week, the market will continue to be driven by expectations regarding the Fed’s next moves, trends in U.S. bonds and oil, inflows into cryptocurrency ETFs, and the future of legislation governing the structure of the U.S. cryptocurrency market.
According to Fixygen, the strategies of the largest public companies that have built up cryptocurrency reserves began to diverge significantly in September.
Strategy, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, has not purchased any BTC for the second week in a row. Instead, the company allocated approximately $139.3 million to repurchase its own STRC preferred shares.
As of September 13, Strategy held approximately 845.05 thousand BTC, purchased for a total of $63.73 billion. The average purchase price was about $75.4 thousand per Bitcoin.
In other words, the company temporarily redirected part of its free liquidity from Bitcoin accumulation toward managing its own capital structure.
For Strategy, the STRC buyback makes economic sense, as it allows the company to reduce future dividend obligations if the securities trade below their par value of $100. The company announced back in the summer that it intends to regularly repurchase STRC at a significant discount.
BitMine Immersion Technologies is pursuing a completely opposite strategy.
On September 14, the company reported that it had increased its reserves to 5.96 million ETH, which corresponds to approximately 4.9% of Ethereum’s total supply of 122 million tokens.
Over the course of the week, BitMine acquired an additional 27,000 ETH, bringing it closer to its goal of holding 5% of Ethereum’s supply.
The company estimates the total value of its crypto assets and cash reserves at approximately $15.8 billion.
The difference between the two models is becoming increasingly apparent. Strategy is effectively building a financial company centered on Bitcoin and managing a complex system of common stock, preferred securities, and debt capital.
BitMine, on the other hand, is trying to accumulate Ethereum as quickly as possible while simultaneously capitalizing on the opportunity to generate income from staking.
This divergence points to the next stage in the development of companies managing digital assets: the market is beginning to evaluate not only the quantity of accumulated coins, but also the method of financing, the cost of capital, the return on assets, and the risk of dilution for shareholders.
Ethereum is becoming the second-largest digital asset after Bitcoin that public companies are using to build corporate cryptocurrency reserves, according to Fixygen.
According to The Block’s Ethereum Treasury Tracker as of September 9–10, 2026, the nine publicly traded companies being monitored hold a total of approximately 7.63 million ETH on their balance sheets. The value of these reserves is estimated at approximately $19 billion.
BitMine Immersion Technologies emerged as the clear leader. The company announced on September 8 that it had increased its portfolio to 5.929 million ETH. In addition, BitMine holds 211 BTC, cash, and marketable securities totaling $593 million, as well as a number of other investments. The company estimates the total value of its cryptocurrency, cash, and marketable securities at $15.7 billion.
According to BitMine’s own estimates, the 5.93 million ETH it owns account for approximately 4.9% of the total Ethereum supply.
At the same time, the company has already staked approximately 5.067 million ETH. At the time of the announcement, BitMine valued these holdings at approximately $12.6 billion.
SharpLink ranks second among public corporate holders of Ethereum with 868,700 ETH worth approximately $2.15 billion, while Dynamix Corporation ranks third with 496,700 ETH worth approximately $1.24 billion.
Next are Bit Digital with 158,500 ETH, BTCS with 70,100 ETH, and Forum Markets with 69,800 ETH.
Thus, BitMine alone controls about 78% of all ETH held in specialized corporate Ethereum reserves tracked by The Block.
The emerging model resembles the strategy Strategy began implementing with Bitcoin several years ago, but there is a significant difference with Ethereum. A company can not only hold the digital asset in anticipation of its value increasing but also stake it to earn additional returns.
At the same time, this model carries additional risks—ranging from ETH volatility to fluctuations in staking yields and a potential discount on the company’s stock relative to the value of its Ethereum holdings.
As of September 10, ETH is trading at $2,470.
According to Fixygen, there are still no signs of a broad shift of capital from Bitcoin to alternative cryptocurrencies, despite periodic rallies in individual tokens and Ethereum’s strengthening.
According to CoinMarketCap data as of September 12, 2026, the Altcoin Season Index stands at about 40 points out of 100, which is significantly below the 75-point threshold at which the market is considered to have entered a full-fledged altseason. Bitcoin’s dominance stands at about 58.7%, while Ethereum’s is 11.6%.
CoinMarketCap defines altseason as a period when at least 75% of the top 100 cryptocurrencies—excluding stablecoins and certain asset-backed tokens—have outperformed Bitcoin over the past 90 days.
BlockchainCenter’s alternative index also does not yet indicate an altseason: its value stands at around 33 points, while the required threshold is 75.
According to CoinGecko, the total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market stands at approximately $2.76 trillion. Bitcoin remains the largest asset with a market cap of about $1.55 trillion.
Bitcoin’s high market share indicates that a significant portion of new capital continues to be concentrated in the largest and most liquid crypto asset. This trend is driven by U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, corporate BTC purchases, and investor caution regarding less liquid tokens.
However, this situation differs from the classic cryptocurrency cycles of previous years, when, following strong growth in Bitcoin, capital would sequentially flow first into Ethereum, then into major altcoins, and finally into more speculative assets with smaller market capitalizations.
Certain altcoins have periodically outperformed Bitcoin significantly in the current cycle as well; however, so far these have been isolated instances rather than broad-based growth across the entire segment.
Ethereum has strengthened its position in recent months: its market share has grown from about 9% three months ago to around 11%, but this is not yet enough to trigger a full-scale rotation of capital away from Bitcoin.
According to Fixygen, the cryptocurrency market in the second half of September will be primarily influenced by decisions from major central banks, U.S. consumer demand and inflation data, as well as a large-scale quarterly expiration of Bitcoin and Ethereum options.
The main event will be the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting on September 15–16. The interest rate decision will be announced on September 16. This meeting is particularly important because, along with the decision, the Fed will publish updated economic forecasts and the so-called “dot plot”—the members’ expectations regarding the future trajectory of interest rates.
Anticipation surrounding the meeting has intensified sharply following the release of August inflation data. Consumer prices in the U.S. rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, while core inflation stood at 0.3% month-over-month and 2.4% year-over-year. A day earlier, the Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a 0.4% monthly increase and a 5.4% annual increase.
Against this backdrop, the market sharply raised its expectations for a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Fed. Throughout September 11, futures markets priced in the probability of such a decision at approximately 82–87%, whereas just a few days before the CPI release, the Reuters consensus forecast among economists had predicted that the rate would remain at 3.50–3.75%.
For cryptocurrencies, a rate hike is traditionally an unfavorable factor: it increases the yield on dollar-denominated assets, raises the cost of borrowed capital, and reduces investors’ risk appetite. However, Bitcoin’s reaction will depend not only on the decision itself but also on the Fed’s comments. If the regulator signals that the September hike is a one-off, the market may react much more calmly than if it were seen as the start of a new tightening cycle.
U.S. retail sales data for August, which will also be released on September 16, will take on added significance ahead of the meeting. In July, this figure fell for the first time in nine months. A strong recovery in consumer spending could bolster the case for higher interest rates, while weak sales could somewhat ease investors’ concerns about further policy tightening. The release date is confirmed by the U.S. Census Bureau. (
On the same day, the BLS will release the August import and export price indices. Typically, this indicator has a much smaller impact on the market than the CPI; however, in the current situation, investors will be closely watching for signs that high prices for energy and imported goods are spilling over into U.S. inflation.
The next key factor will be the Bank of Japan. Its meeting is scheduled for September 17–18. According to a Reuters survey, the central bank is expected to raise its policy rate by 25 basis points—to 1.25%, the highest level in 31 years.
For Bitcoin, the Bank of Japan’s decision is significant due to the carry trade mechanism. For many years, investors have borrowed cheap yen and invested them in more profitable and risky assets. Rising interest rates in Japan and a strengthening yen make such strategies less attractive and could lead to a reduction in leveraged positions in global markets, including cryptocurrencies. Fears of a unwinding of the yen carry trade have repeatedly been a source of heightened volatility in risky assets.
Another potential source of sharp fluctuations will be September 25, when a major quarterly expiration of cryptocurrency options takes place on Deribit. Based on calculations using exchange open interest as of September 9, approximately $14.4 billion in Bitcoin options and another roughly $1.8 billion in Ethereum options were outstanding as of that date. About 41.5% of the total open interest in Bitcoin options was concentrated in the September expiration.
An expiration date alone does not determine the market’s direction; however, such a large volume of contracts can increase short-term volatility. A study published in the September issue of *Finance Research Letters* also points to statistically significant intraday reversals in Bitcoin prices during option expiration periods, especially when large positions held by market makers are present.
On September 29, the market will receive the August JOLTS report on U.S. job openings. Following a strong August jobs report—which showed the U.S. economy added 162,000 jobs with an unemployment rate of 4.1%—the state of the labor market has become yet another argument for proponents of a more hawkish Fed policy. An unexpectedly high number of job openings could put pressure back on Bitcoin due to rising U.S. bond yields.
But the most important data following the Fed meeting will be released on September 30. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis will simultaneously publish the third estimate of second-quarter GDP and data on Americans’ personal income and spending for August. This report contains the PCE price index—the primary inflation measure the Fed uses as a guide.
If the PCE shows rising inflationary pressure following the CPI and PPI, expectations for additional rate hikes by the end of the year could intensify. For Bitcoin, such a scenario would mean continued pressure from high bond yields and a strong dollar. Conversely, a weaker PCE could bring back market expectations that monetary tightening is coming to an end.
The situation is complicated by rising oil prices. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds approached 5% on September 11—its highest level since 2023—as high oil prices intensified fears of a new wave of inflation.
In addition, on September 10, the European Central Bank raised its key rates by 25 basis points: the deposit rate will be 2.50% starting September 16. The ECB directly linked this decision to persistent inflationary pressures, particularly due to the conflict in the Middle East and rising energy prices.
Thus, the second half of September is shaping up to be a period of heightened macroeconomic risk for the crypto market. Over the next two weeks, investors will sequentially see the Fed’s decision, a possible rate hike by the Bank of Japan, a major quarterly expiration of crypto options, U.S. labor market data, and the key PCE inflation index.
In the base case scenario, the cost of global liquidity remains the key factor for Bitcoin. If the Fed and the Bank of Japan simultaneously tighten policy, and inflation in the U.S. remains high, pressure on risk assets may persist. However, if the Fed signals that rate hikes are nearing the end of the cycle, and the PCE shows a slowdown in price growth, the market may find a reason to rebound by the end of September.
The key indicator following each data release will be not only the figure itself but also the reaction of U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar: if they continue to rise, it will be more difficult for cryptocurrencies to regain ground, whereas a decline in yields and the dollar’s exchange rate could draw capital back into Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other risky assets.
According to Fixygen, Ethereum is becoming the second-largest digital asset—after Bitcoin—that public companies are using to build corporate cryptocurrency reserves.
According to The Block’s Ethereum Treasury Tracker as of September 9–10, 2026, the nine publicly traded companies tracked hold a total of approximately 7.63 million ETH on their balance sheets. The value of these reserves is estimated at approximately $19 billion.
BitMine Immersion Technologies has emerged as the clear leader. The company announced on September 8 that it had increased its portfolio to 5.929 million ETH. In addition, BitMine holds 211 BTC, cash and marketable securities totaling $593 million, as well as a number of other investments.
The company estimates the total value of its cryptocurrency, cash, and marketable securities at $15.7 billion.
According to BitMine’s own estimates, the 5.93 million ETH it owns accounts for approximately 4.9% of the total Ethereum supply.
At the same time, the company has already staked approximately 5.067 million ETH. At the time of the announcement, BitMine valued this amount at approximately $12.6 billion.
SharpLink ranks second among public corporate holders of Ethereum with 868,700 ETH worth approximately $2.15 billion, followed by Dynamix Corporation in third place with 496,700 ETH worth approximately $1.24 billion.
Next are Bit Digital with 158,500 ETH, BTCS with 70,100 ETH, and Forum Markets with 69,800 ETH.
Thus, BitMine alone controls about 78% of all ETH held in specialized corporate Ethereum reserves tracked by The Block.
The emerging model resembles the strategy that Strategy began implementing with Bitcoin several years ago, though there is a significant difference with Ethereum. A company can not only hold the digital asset in anticipation of its value increasing but also stake it to earn additional returns.
At the same time, this model carries additional risks—ranging from ETH volatility to fluctuations in staking yields and a potential discount on the company’s stock relative to the value of the Ethereum it holds.
As of September 10, ETH is trading at $2,470.
Data source: Ethereum Treasury Tracker
