According to Fixygen, the crypto market spent the week in a mode of restrained correction and sideways movement. Bitcoin fell by approximately 1.9% over the period, from $68,978 to $67,700, maintaining a trading range of $65,740-70,167. Ethereum fell by approximately 2.0% over the same week, from $1,998.79 to $1,957.86, with a range of $1,907.76 to $2,037.08.
As of February 22, CoinMarketCap estimated Bitcoin’s capitalization at $1.35 trillion at a price of about $67,660, and Ethereum’s capitalization at $236.3 billion at a price of about $1,957.8. Trading volumes indicated the dominance of stablecoins in circulation: USDT traded around $42.19 billion per day, which is significantly higher than the total turnover of BTC and ETH for the same period.
The main factors of the week were continued tension around capital flows into crypto instruments and cautious risk appetite. The market discussed protracted outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs and deteriorating sentiment amid macroeconomic uncertainty. At the same time, by the end of the week, Bitcoin showed relative stability at around $68,000, even amid news of tariff initiatives in the US.
The news agenda also highlighted the topic of stablecoin regulation and sanctions compliance. The Financial Times wrote about the European Commission’s proposal to expand the sanctions regime and effectively ban crypto transactions related to Russia, including references to specific payment solutions and stablecoin projects. Against this backdrop, on February 16, CoinDesk took a detailed look at the case of the ruble-pegged stablecoin A7A5 and its attempts to scale up amid sanctions pressure.
According to Fixygen, the market will assess how stable demand is after a series of outflows from ETFs, how quickly risk appetite responds to trade tariff signals, and new regulatory steps in the US and EU.
Bitcoin accelerated its growth in mid-January and is trading at around $97,024, updating the local highs of recent weeks. Ethereum is holding steady at $3,366.
According to CoinMarketCap, the global capitalisation of the crypto market is around $3.28 trillion, with Bitcoin accounting for around 59%, indicating a concentration of demand in the largest asset, while altcoins are growing less evenly.
The main driver in January is the return of institutional interest through ETFs. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded strong inflows, including about $843.6 million on 14 January, with total inflows measured in billions of dollars over several days.
The second factor is the US macroeconomy. The market reacted to inflation data and rate expectations, which directly affect risk appetite and the cost of capital. After the publication of the December CPI, Bitcoin accelerated at certain moments, and volatility in crypto intensified.
January news markers that may affect the exchange rate.
Regulation in the US. On 13 January, senators introduced a bill on rules for the crypto market, including the division of powers between the SEC and CFTC and the approach to stablecoins. On 15 January, discussions in the Senate Banking Committee were postponed after public criticism from Coinbase. This is a typical trigger for the market: clear rules are a plus for valuations, while delays and disputes are a cause for nervousness.
Stablecoins and payments. Visa is publicly increasing its focus on stablecoin payments: the company estimates the current annual run rate of such payments at approximately $4.5 billion, with an estimated $270 billion in stablecoins in circulation. Any news about stablecoin regulation and the banking lobby in the US can quickly affect sentiment in crypto.
Risk of incidents and hacks. In January, the market already received a reminder of technological risks: some tokens fell to almost zero after exploits (an example is the incident surrounding Truebit). Such events usually hit the ‘second tier’ and increase demand for quality (BTC, large protocols).
The key event of the month is the FOMC meeting on 27-28 January 2026 and the subsequent press conference. The Fed’s rhetoric on rates and inflation remains one of the strongest external factors for crypto at the beginning of the year.
This week (December 15-21), the crypto market experienced fluctuations without a clear trend: after a slump at the beginning of the week, Bitcoin remained in the $87-89 thousand range, and investors switched back to a wait-and-see mode due to the macro agenda, mixed dynamics of ETF flows, and a seasonal decline in liquidity ahead of the holidays.
Bitcoin gained about 1.6% (at closing) between December 15 and December 21, but there was a noticeable V-shaped movement during the week: selling pressure in the $85,000–86,000 range was offset by rebounds to $88,000–89,000.
Ethereum remained virtually unchanged over the same period (close to zero at closing), staying around the $3,000 mark, but with noticeable intraday fluctuations.
Sentiment remained subdued: fear and greed indices showed “Extreme Fear” for most of the week, which usually amplifies sharp movements in a thin market.
The key external factor was expectations regarding US interest rates and year-end risk-off sentiment. In December, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points to 3.5-3.75%, while the market interpreted its rhetoric as more cautious about further steps.
Against this backdrop, any hint of a pause or a tighter rate trajectory weighed on risk appetite, as evidenced by the reaction of crypto assets at the beginning of the “last full week of the year.”
The second theme is institutional flows. According to reports and market news, there were inflows and noticeable outflows from BTC and ETH ETFs during the week (investors often “close” risk or lock in results at the end of the year), which added volatility and increased dependence on news.
The third line is that “traditional finance” continues to tokenize, but this is still more of an infrastructure trend than an immediate price driver. For example, JPMorgan announced the launch of a tokenized money market fund on the Ethereum blockchain, supporting the long-term narrative around real assets on-chain.
Even during a calm week in terms of prices, reminders of the risks were loud and clear: research on crypto crime and isolated incidents in DeFi underscore that “operational risk” (vulnerabilities, deployment errors, key management) remains a key vulnerability for the industry.
Fixygen’s short-term forecast until the end of 2025
Until December 31, the base scenario is sideways movement with an increased likelihood of sharp spikes due to low liquidity during the holidays and reduced institutional activity. Important triggers for the rest of the year are ETF flow dynamics, any surprises from US macro statistics and Fed rhetoric, plus local stories about major players in the public market (there is also growing attention around the classification of companies with large crypto reserves).
Regarding risks: during the “holidays,” the influence of thin trading and liquidations increases — movements may be disproportionate to the news.
Over the past month, Ethereum (ETH) rose to the $4,000+ zone with multiple “defenses” of the $4,000 level at the end of October, after which it entered a correction amid mixed flows in crypto ETFs and a pause in regulatory decisions in the US. As of Wednesday morning, the price was hovering around $3,300, below last week’s highs.
What drove the market last month?
After several rebounds from $4,000 at the end of October, activity rose above average, but momentum faded at the $4,050–4,200 support levels.
The decisions on new crypto ETFs expected in October were postponed due to the government shutdown in the US; however, some products still entered the exchange under a simplified procedure, which shifted the “main” catalysts to November.
In September, the SEC approved unified listing standards for commodity ETPs on leading US exchanges, which simplified the launch of new crypto ETFs and supported expectations for the expansion of product lines (including multi-crypto funds). I
Now let’s analyze the main factors for November–December (base scenarios).
1) Moderately positive. The launch of new ETFs/updated prospectuses and the resumption of institutional inflows to ETH are strengthening demand; technically, a return above $3,800–4,000 opens the way for a retest of the autumn highs.
2) Neutral. Overestimated expectations for ETFs and subdued on-chain indicators keep ETH in a wide range of $3,000–3,800 without a trend; local rallies are quickly fixed. (Benchmark: recent “sell zones” of $4,050–4,200).
3) Risky. Increased macro volatility or new outflows from ETH ETFs could trigger a decline to $2,800–3,100; in this case, the market will focus on medium-term support, and decisive drivers will be postponed until 2026. (Examples of data on outflows/capital flows into altcoins appeared this week).
Interestingly, Citi in September cited a base case estimate of $4,300 at the end of the year with a bullish scenario of $6,400 under favorable macro conditions and the use of Ethereum applications; the bearish case is $2,200.
After the spring network updates, the industry is discussing the next steps in the Ethereum roadmap; industry reviews mention the following UX and scalability improvements, but the key issue for the market in the coming weeks remains the regulatory block on ETFs in the US.
Note: forecasts are probabilistic and depend on macro conditions, ETF news, and fund inflows/outflows; investment decisions should be made with risk in mind.
https://www.fixygen.ua/news/20251105/efir-prosiv-pislya-testu-4-tis-prognozi-na-listopad-gruden.html
Over the past seven days, the cryptocurrency market has experienced significant volatility — panic selling, record liquidations of leveraged positions, further recovery, and new records. Here are the main trends, facts, and forecasts from Fixygen:
On Friday, one of the largest sell-offs in recent times took place: according to media reports, more than $19 billion in cryptocurrency positions were liquidated under the influence of news about US tariff measures against China. Bitcoin, which had previously risen to $125–126 thousand, underwent a correction and decline.
Simultaneously with the correction, data appeared on record inflows into global cryptocurrency ETFs — $5.95 billion in a week. This indicates that institutional players remain interested in digital assets even amid volatility.
Amid uncertainty in the financial markets, gold set a new record, surpassing the $4,000/ounce level.
This reinforces the argument about the role of traditional assets as “safe havens” during financial market turmoil.
Bitcoin: after a correction, it held support below $110,000, but during the week, it recovered to levels around $114,000–$122,000. Ether (ETH): fell by about 4–5% on a weekly basis amid corrective sentiment. Altcoins: some coins from the protocol segment showed high volatility — strong rebounds, changes in dominance. At the same time, BTC (BTC.D) dominance increased: investors temporarily returned to a more “reliable” asset due to pressure on altcoins.
What lies ahead? Most likely, further volatility. If uncertainty continues, investors may again move towards BTC or stablecoins, leaving altcoins behind. If US or EU regulators make positive decisions, this could give the market new momentum.
Experts predict that frequent “shiny” rises will be followed by sharp declines — players should be prepared for smooth entry/exit.
The Fixygen project analyzed all cryptocurrency market trends over the week and prepared an analysis for investors and the media. The cryptocurrency market ended last week with mixed sentiments: leading digital assets showed mixed dynamics, investors continue to assess signals from the US Federal Reserve, the global stock market, and industry news.
According to CoinMarketCap, the total capitalization of the cryptocurrency market at the end of the week was about $2.43 trillion, which is 1.5% higher than seven days ago. At the same time, the daily trading volume remained volatile and fluctuated between $70-90 billion.
Bitcoin rose to $66,000 during the week, but corrected to $64,500 on Friday, which is 0.7% lower than the previous week. Analysts note that the asset is holding in the $63,000–67,000 range, and the key driver for further movement will remain the dynamics of US inflation and expectations regarding interest rates.
Ethereum, amid news of growing interest from institutional players, managed to rise above $2,600, but failed to consolidate above this level — the week ended with a quote of $2,550. As a result, the asset showed moderate growth of about 2.1%.
Altcoins behaved in different ways. Solana rose in price by almost 5% amid increased activity in the ecosystem of decentralized applications. Ripple and Cardano added about 1%, while Dogecoin and Shiba Inu fell within the range of 2-3%.
Stablecoins maintained their positions: USDT’s share in the market structure remains at 68%, indicating high liquidity and continued cautious demand from investors.
Experts emphasize that the cryptocurrency market continues to react to the macroeconomic situation and news about regulation. In particular, discussions of new rules for disclosing information about digital assets in the US are putting pressure on short-term expectations.
In the medium term, market participants will focus on upcoming US employment reports, Fed minutes, and global inflation statistics. These factors could set the direction for Bitcoin and key altcoins in October.
Thus, last week on the crypto market was a period of relative stabilization with limited fluctuations, while in the coming weeks, investors are waiting for new drivers for growth or correction.
Source: https://www.fixygen.ua/news/20251003/nedelnyy-analiz-rynka-kriptovalyut-ot-fixygen.html
