As of September 30, 2024, 4 million 197.37 thousand non-EU citizens who fled Ukraine as a result of the Russian invasion on February 24, 2022, had temporary protection status in the EU, compared to 4 million 163.66 thousand citizens a month earlier, Eurostat reports.
“Compared to the end of August 2024, the largest absolute increase in the number of recipients was observed in Germany (+7,005; +0.6%), Poland (+4,645; +0.5%) and Spain (+3,170; +1.5%),” the agency said.
It noted that the number of beneficiaries decreased in France (-570; -0.9%) and Italy (-10; -0.0%).
Thus, in September, the growth in the number of refugees from Ukraine with temporary protection status slowed to 33.7 thousand from 39.8 thousand in August.
According to Eurostat, despite Germany’s deprivation of almost 237,000 people of this status in July, it still remains the country with the largest number of them in the EU and the world – 1,129,34 thousand at the end of September, or 26.9% of the total number of beneficiaries in the EU.
The top three also includes Poland – 979.84 thousand, or 23.3%, and the Czech Republic – 378.48 thousand, or 9.0%.
Spain (218.30 thousand), Romania (172.41 thousand), and Italy (166.79 thousand) follow with a significant lag.
At the same time, Eurostat clarified that the data for Spain, Greece and Cyprus take into account some people whose temporary protection status is no longer valid.
According to the agency, compared to the population of each EU member state, the largest number of temporary protection beneficiaries per thousand people in September 2024 was observed in the Czech Republic (34.7), Lithuania (28.1) and Poland (26.8), while the corresponding figure at the EU level is 9.3.
It is also said that as of September 30, 2024, Ukrainian citizens accounted for more than 98.3% of the beneficiaries of temporary protection. Adult women accounted for almost half (45.0%) of temporary protection beneficiaries in the EU, children for almost a third (32.3%), while adult men accounted for slightly more than a fifth (22.7%) of the total. A year earlier, the share of women was 46.5%, children 33.7% and adult men 19.9%.
At the end of September 2024, there were also more than 100 thousand people with temporary protection status in Slovakia – 126.97 thousand, the Netherlands – 119.01 thousand, and Ireland – 107.93 thousand.
Between 50 thousand and 100 thousand of them were in Belgium – 84.54 thousand, Austria – 81.91 thousand, Lithuania – 81.07 thousand, Norway – 76.11 thousand, Finland – 67.27 thousand, Switzerland – 66.63 thousand, Bulgaria – 64.32 thousand, Portugal – 63.66 thousand and France – 60.10 thousand (data on children are mostly not included – Eurostat).
This is followed by Latvia – 46.99 thousand people, Sweden – 44.63 thousand, Hungary – 37.99 thousand, Denmark – 36.93 thousand, Estonia – 34.24 thousand, Greece – 31.78 thousand, Croatia – 25.40 thousand, Cyprus – 21.68 thousand, Iceland – 3.92 thousand, Luxembourg – 3.82 thousand, Malta – 2.16 thousand and Liechtenstein – 0.66 thousand.
Eurostat clarified that all the above data relate to the granting of temporary protection on the basis of EU Council Decision 2022/382 of March 4, 2022, which establishes the existence of a massive influx of displaced persons from Ukraine due to Russia’s military invasion and entails the introduction of temporary protection. On June 25, 2024, the European Council decided to extend temporary protection for these persons from March 4, 2025 to March 4, 2026.
According to updated UNHCR data, the number of Ukrainian refugees in Europe as of October 15 this year was estimated at 6.192 million, and 6.752 million in the world as a whole, which is 38 thousand and 27 thousand more than as of September 24 this year.
In Ukraine itself, according to the latest UN data as of August this year, there were 3.669 million internally displaced persons (IDPs), which is 121 thousand more than in April this year.
According to regional authorities cited by the UN, between August 1 and October 3, more than 120,000 people left Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine, including 19,500 who fled active hostilities. In Sumy region, the authorities estimate that 36,000 people, including 6,000 children, have been evacuated.
As noted by Deputy Economy Minister Serhiy Sobolev in early March last year, the return of every 100,000 Ukrainians home results in a 0.5% increase in GDP. In its macroeconomic forecast for this year, the Ministry of Economy has included 1.5 million people returning to Ukraine.
At the same time, the National Bank, in its October inflation report, again downgraded its forecast for the outflow from Ukraine this year from 0.4 million to 0.5 million. In absolute terms, the number of migrants staying abroad is expected to increase to 6.8 million this year.
In the new report, the National Bank confirmed its expectation that Ukrainians will start returning home in 2026, but lowered its forecast for net inflows in 2026 to 0.2 million from 0.4 million.
The European Commission (EC) has downgraded its forecast for the European Union’s economic growth in 2024 to 0.9% from the previously expected 1%. The forecast for the eurozone’s GDP growth this year remains at 0.8%. In 2025, the European Commission expects the eurozone’s GDP to grow by 1.3% and the EU’s by 1.5%. The May forecast envisaged a rise of 1.4% and 1.6%, respectively. In 2026, the eurozone’s economic growth rate will accelerate to 1.6%, and the EU’s – to 1.8%, the regulator predicts.
“After a long and widespread stagnation, the EU economy returned to growth in the first quarter of this year. As expected in the spring, moderate but steady growth rates continued in the second and third quarters amid further easing inflationary pressures. The prevailing conditions point to a moderate acceleration in domestic demand, despite heightened uncertainty,” the press release said.
According to the EC’s forecast, inflation (HICP index) in the euro area will slow to 2.4% this year from 5.4% in 2023 and weaken to 2.1% in 2025. In May, inflation rates were forecast at 2.5% and 2.1%, respectively. In 2026, consumer prices are expected to grow by 1.9% in the euro area and by 2% in the EU.
“Household disposable income continued to grow at a good pace in the first half of the year, driven by increased employment and the ongoing recovery in real wages,” the report says.
At the same time, the situation with investments was disappointing, as the indicator decreased by more than 2.5% in the first half of the year. The European Commission called increased uncertainty the main negative factor for both consumer spending and business investment.
Unemployment in the eurozone is expected to reach 6.5% this year and drop to 6.3% next year, remaining at this level until 2026. In the EU, unemployment is expected to decline to 5.9% in 2025 and 2026 from 6.1% in 2024.
In 2024, the budget deficit in the EU countries may shrink to 3.1% of GDP from 3.6% of GDP a year earlier, and in the eurozone countries – to 3%. In 2025, the figures will drop to 3% and 2.9%, respectively, and in 2026 – to 2.9% and 2.8%, the EC predicts.
The ratio of total public debt to GDP in the European Union is expected to increase to 83.4% by 2026 from 82.1% in 2023.
Germany’s economy, according to the EC’s forecast, will shrink by 0.1% this year and grow by 0.7% next year. France’s GDP is expected to grow by 1.1% and 0.8%, respectively, Italy’s by 0.7% and 1%, and Spain’s by 3% and 2.3%.
“The economic outlook for the EU remains extremely uncertain, and the risks are largely shifted downward,” the European Commission said in a statement.
These risks include geopolitical risks, in particular those related to Russia’s military aggression in Ukraine and the conflict in the Middle East, as well as foreign trade risks related to possible “protectionist measures by trading partners.” The EC also points to the risks of weak labor productivity growth and the danger of large-scale natural disasters.
Russian gas producer Gazprom (GAZP.MM), opens new tab said it would send 42.4 million cubic metres of gas to Europe via Ukraine on Tuesday, the same volume as on Monday, while nominations for gas flows to Austria from Slovakia edged up.
The European energy markets have been on edge over a contractual row between Gazprom and Austria’s OMV (OMVV.VI), opens new tab, which led to the Kremlin-controlled firm halting supply to the Vienna-based company on Saturday.
The flows to OMV were stopped after it threatened to impound some of Gazprom’s gas as compensation for an arbitration it had won over the contractual dispute.
Daily flows to Europe via Ukraine have remained around normal levels, however, and gas has continued to flow into Austria.
Nominations, or requests from customers, for flows to Austria from Slovakia were up 6% on Tuesday versus Monday but remained about 12% below levels seen before Gazprom halted supply to OMV.
It was not clear who was buying gas previously intended for OMV.
Nominations to the Czech Republic from Slovakia were roughly in line with levels seen in previous days this month.
Nominations for flows into Slovakia from Ukraine were also little changed while nominations for flows leaving Slovakia were mostly stable, data from transmission system operator Eustream showed.
24% of the pig industry representatives consider joining the European Union to be positive, as it will open access to new markets with more transparent rules and conditions, according to a study conducted by the Pig Producers of Ukraine in cooperation with the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD).
Analysts noted that such a low percentage of positive responses is due to the fact that the majority (40%) of respondents associate EU accession with the loss of their competitiveness, 26% fear tighter regulatory requirements, and 10% say the sector is technically and financially unprepared given the large amount of investment needed to improve the production system in accordance with all European requirements.
“Under such conditions, 36.2% of pork producers who took part in the survey are convinced that for a faster and easier transformation of the industry in accordance with EU requirements, preferential loans, grants, other compensations and access to financial resources are needed. Others believe it is necessary to remove the corruption/bureaucratic component in the processes of obtaining permits and certificates, the high share of the black market, overcome individual difficulties of operators, as well as economic and military challenges,” the industry association explained.
The survey involved pork producers who provide about 80% of the industrial supply on the market. Their total livestock is more than 2 million heads.
Wine production in the European Union will decline by about 3% this year due to unfavorable weather conditions and rising costs, agricultural lobbying group Copa-Cogeca predicts.
Wine production in the EU this year will amount to about 144 million hectoliters (hl), the group said in a press release.
Italy is expected to become the largest wine producer in Europe with 41 million hectoliters (up 7%), Spain will take second place (38.1 million hectoliters, up 18% year-on-year), and wine production in France will fall by 22%, which will cause the country to fall back to third place with 37.4 million hectoliters.
The outgoing year was marked by unpredictable weather and the effects of recent droughts in Europe, the report says. Meanwhile, vineyard diseases have become less of a problem than in 2023, experts say. In addition, rising prices for glass, gasoline, transportation services and fertilizers have significantly increased producers’ costs, and high interest rates have made it difficult to access the loans needed to grow the business.
“The European wine market is going through a difficult time, affected by high production costs and the situation on international markets,” said Luca Rigotti, head of the Wine Working Group at Copa-Cogeca. – “However, I am confident in the resilience and entrepreneurship of our farmers.
At the first “EU-Ukraine Investment Conference” in Warsaw on Wednesday, the European Union called for mobilizing private investment in areas critical to Ukraine’s recovery, the European Commission (EC) said.
“Under this call, EU businesses, including joint ventures or consortia involving both European and Ukrainian companies, are invited to submit proposals by March 1, 2025. Proposals will be reviewed and linked to the most suitable investment projects financed by the Investment Framework for Ukraine, which is an integral part of the EU’s EUR 50 billion Ukraine Fund,” the EC communiqué says.
“Ukraine’s recovery requires both public funding and partnerships with the private sector. By combining these efforts, we can maximize investment, support the country’s recovery and its gradual integration into the EU single market. Indeed, facilitating private sector participation in Ukraine’s recovery and reconstruction will be key to its success,” said Oliver Vargey, European Commissioner for Neighborhood and Enlargement Policy.
The European Commission named the priority areas of the EU’s call: development of sustainable energy solutions, including renewable energy projects and modernization of existing energy infrastructure; investment in processing of critical raw materials – key minerals and resources needed for high-tech industries and renewable energy technologies; revitalization and modernization of the manufacturing and production sector to increase industrial competitiveness; support for construction and reconstruction of Ukraine; and support for the development of the energy sector.
The two-day conference, according to the EC, brought together more than 5,000 participants, including companies, banks and investors from Ukraine, the EU and other countries, to mobilize private investment in the recovery, reconstruction and modernization of Ukraine.
