The European Commission (EC) has downgraded its forecast for eurozone economic growth in 2023 to 0.8% from the previously expected 1.1%.
In 2024, eurozone GDP is expected to grow by 1.3% rather than 1.6%, the EC said in a review.
The forecast for EU economic growth for this year has been worsened to 0.8% from 1% and for next year to 1.4% from 1.7%.
“The latest statistical data confirm that economic activity in the EU has been subdued in the first half of 2023 due to the severe shocks facing countries in the region. Weakness in domestic demand, especially consumer spending, shows that high prices for most goods and services are putting more pressure on the economy than we believed in our previous forecast,” the survey said.
“The sharp contraction in bank lending suggests that monetary tightening in the euro area is having an impact on the economy,” the EC said. – Various surveys point to a slowdown in economic activity over the summer and the following months. Weakness in the industrial sector persists, and the impetus for growth in the services sector is weakening”.
EC experts emphasize that the situation in the world economy in the first half of the year was slightly better than expected, despite the weak dynamics in China. Nevertheless, the EC forecasts for the world economy and international trade volumes are practically unchanged, which means that European countries cannot count on support from external demand.
The EC expects global GDP to expand by 3.2% both this year and next year.
“The momentum towards slower growth in the EU is likely to continue into 2024, as tight monetary policy will continue to constrain economic activity. At the same time, we expect GDP growth to pick up slightly next year as inflation slows, the European labor market remains strong and household incomes gradually recover,” the EC review said.
The eurozone inflation forecast (HICP index) for this year has been lowered to 5.6% from 5.8%, for next year – raised to 2.9% from 2.8%. In the EU, according to the EC’s updated forecast, inflation will be 6.5% this year (previously 6.7%) and 3.2% next year (previously 3.1%).
The EC expects that energy prices in Europe will continue to decline until the end of 2023, but more slowly than before. At the same time in 2024 they may again slightly increase due to the expected rise in oil prices.
The EC review notes that the war in Ukraine and other geopolitical factors still carry risks for Europe.
In addition, experts warn that the tightening of monetary policy may put more pressure on the economy than expected at the moment. On the other hand, it may lead to a faster easing of inflation and, accordingly, accelerate the recovery of real incomes, the review notes.
According to the EC’s forecast, Germany’s GDP will contract by 0.4% in 2023 and grow by 1.1% next year. Previously expected to increase the first indicator by 0.2%, the second – by 1.4%.
France’s economic growth forecast for 2023 has been raised to 1% from 0.7%, for the next year it has been lowered to 1.2% from 1.4%.
Italy’s economy is expected to grow by 0.9% and 0.8% in 2023 and 2024 respectively, while Spain’s is expected to grow by 2.2% and 1.9%.
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Ukraine may file a lawsuit against Brussels and European Union member states at the World Trade Organization (WTO) if they do not lift restrictions on the export of its agricultural products after September 15, Taras Kachka, Deputy Minister of Economy and Trade Representative of Ukraine, told Politico.
“With full respect and gratitude to Poland, if any bans are imposed after September 15, Ukraine will file a lawsuit against Poland and the EU at the World Trade Organization,” he said.
Ukraine’s trade representative insists that these restrictions violate the Free Trade Agreement, which has been in place between Ukraine and the EU since 2014.
“We do not intend to take immediate retaliatory measures, given the spirit of friendship and solidarity between Ukraine and the EU,” Kachka explained, adding that a systemic threat to Ukrainian interests would force Ukraine to take the case to the WTO.
In addition, Kachka told the newspaper that there is no evidence of price deviations or a significant increase in grain supplies to justify the extension of import restrictions. Kyiv has engaged in “constructive cooperation” with the European Commission, five EU member states, and Moldova, a key transit hub for Ukrainian exports to the EU.
“We have received significant support for ensuring better transit of goods through the territory of neighboring member states, including Poland and Hungary. In the last two months, we have made significant progress in cooperation with Romania on the transportation of goods from Ukraine,” Kachka said.
As reported, Deputy Head of the Presidential Office Ihor Zhovkva said in an interview with Interfax-Ukraine that if Brussels fails to take action against Poland, Hungary, Bulgaria, Slovakia and Romania, which violate the trade agreement, Kyiv “reserves the choice of legal mechanisms for response.”
Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry noted that Kyiv reserves the right to initiate arbitration proceedings under the Association Agreement with the EU or to apply to the WTO.
Source: https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-eu-wto-poland-hungary-grain-curbs/
Poland will not allow grain imports from Ukraine after September 15, as the interest of Polish farmers is more important to the country’s government than any EU rules on this issue, said Polish Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development Robert Telusz.
“We know what could have happened if grain (from Ukraine) had arrived in Poland after September 15. Especially since the price of grain is currently low, and the granaries are already full. We know that this is in our interest and we will defend it. That is why I am going to Spain with this message to the summit of agriculture ministers,” the Polish publication farmer.pl quoted him as saying during the National Agricultural Exhibition in Czestochowa last Sunday.
Telusz informed the public that on Monday he will visit Spain, where he will convince the European Union to extend the ban on grain imports from Ukraine to the EU until the end of 2023 after September 15, together with representatives of other frontline countries – Hungary, Bulgaria, Slovakia, and Romania.
“When the war in Ukraine broke out, Polish society, including farmers, became the saviors of the Ukrainian cause. (…) Polish society became a lifesaver. Today in Brussels, we are loudly declaring: a dead rescuer is a bad rescuer. We will not allow the Polish farmer to lose because of arbitrary decisions of officials from Brussels,” said Deputy Minister of Agriculture Krzysztof Ciezora.
According to Janusz Kowalski, the State Secretary of the Ministry of Agriculture, the Polish government has supported Polish farmers to the tune of EUR 3.181 billion, while the amount of financial support from the European Commission is only EUR 63.614 million.
Laude Group, a Polish logistics operator, has transferred EUR100m worth of assets from Russia and Central Asian countries to Ukraine; the company plans to invest another EUR250m in an economic exchange program between Ukraine and the EU, Laude’s press service said.
“Laude Group is expanding its potential in Ukraine. The logistics company from Torun (Poland) has transferred its assets worth EUR100 mln to Ukraine over the past few months. These are all assets that were previously located in Russia and Central Asian countries,” the statement said.
It is noted that among other things, the move included 510 specialized railway platforms and several thousand containers, which are actively used to transport products from Ukraine to Europe.
The company plans to increase investments in Ukraine by purchasing locomotives, railcars and containers.
“We decided to implement an investment program worth about EUR250 million aimed at economic exchange between Europe and Ukraine. Railroads here are a key element for both exports and imports and the company is an important operator,” the statement quoted the company’s CEO Marcin Witczak as saying.
Laude said it received approval for cooperation with Ukrzaliznytsia JSC in May after a thorough and lengthy review. “This is a key agreement which means that we are very closely linked to the Ukrainian market,” commented Vitchak.
At the same time, Laude’s development plans go further than expanding its logistics systems. “There are many specialists from Ukraine among the company’s several hundred employees. We are working on a training program for machinists from Ukraine,” said the CEO of the company.
Laude emphasized that it did not stop operations in Ukraine after the full-scale invasion. The company stopped operations in russia. “According to the legislation in force in this country, Laude must obtain a decision from the Russian authorities that confirms the sale of the company, which previously operated in the Russian market. Although the Russian government is not seeking to facilitate the transaction for Polish entrepreneurs, the company hopes to finalize the process and achieve de-registration in the coming weeks,” Witczak said.
In its logistics operations, Smart Intermodal, a member of the group, uses a modern rail terminal in Zamoscie, located on both wide and narrow “European” rail lines and adapted for handling and transshipment of cargo (containers) through the Izow-Grubieszów border crossing (located 60 km from the terminal). Laude’s terminal in Zamoscie can handle 10 trains per day and up to 15 thousand TEU of containers per year.
Laude Group of Companies belongs to one of the largest importers of steel from Ukraine to the EU, ATS S.A. Laude is active on international markets through its companies, connecting eastern and western transportation routes through Poland. The company’s activities over the last 15 years have been carried out in Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Moldova (formerly in the Russian Federation). The company cooperates with contractors from Turkey, China, India. During the last years it has been actively investing in the development of Laude in Germany.
As of June 30, 2023, 4 million 65.6 thousand non-EU citizens who fled Ukraine as a result of the Russian invasion on February 24, 2022, had temporary protection status in the EU, Eurostat reports.
“Compared to the end of May 2023, the number of recipients of temporary protection from Ukraine increased in the EU by 45,800 people (+1.1%). The largest increase was observed in Germany (+21,830; +2.0%), the Czech Republic (+9,050; +2.7%) and Ireland (+3,100; +3.7%),” the statistical agency said.
According to its data, the main EU countries hosting recipients of temporary protection from Ukraine were Germany (1 million 133.4 thousand people; 28% of the total), Poland (977.74 thousand people; 24%) and the Czech Republic (349.14 thousand people; 9%).
On the other hand, Eurostat added, four countries saw a decrease in the number of persons enjoying temporary protection: Poland (-4,700; -0.5%), Portugal (-2,520; -4%), Estonia (-1,885; -5%) and France (-985; -1%).
The agency recalled that in May the number of recipients of temporary protection from Ukraine increased by 57.3 thousand people (+1.4%) in the EU, and in April – by 51.0 thousand (+1.3%). In all three months of the second quarter, the largest increase was observed in Germany – a total of 65.7 thousand people, followed by the Czech Republic – 23.9 thousand, while Poland was the leader in the reduction in all three months, by 22.0 thousand.
In general, in the second quarter of this year, the number of recipients of temporary protection from Ukraine increased in the EU by 154.1 thousand (+3.9%), and in the first half of the year – by 239.0 thousand (+6.2%). The main inflow was provided by Germany – 165.7 thousand people for the first half of the year (+17.1%).
Eurostat clarified that, compared to the population of each EU member state, the largest number of temporary protection beneficiaries per thousand people in June 2023 was observed in the Czech Republic (32.2), Poland (26.6), Estonia (25.8), Bulgaria (24.9) and Lithuania (24.7), while the corresponding figure at the EU level was 9.1 per thousand people.
It is also said that as of June 30, 2023, Ukrainian citizens accounted for more than 98% of the beneficiaries of temporary protection.
According to the data provided, more than 100 thousand refugees from Ukraine with temporary protection status in the EU as of the middle of this year were also in Spain – 180.2 thousand, Bulgaria – 160.7 thousand, Italy – 157.3 thousand, Romania – 133.5 thousand, the Netherlands – 125.8 thousand and Slovakia – 104.0 thousand.
Between 50 thousand and 100 thousand of them were in Ireland – 86.9 thousand, Austria – 75.8 thousand, Lithuania – 70.7 thousand, Belgium – 67.7 thousand, France – 67.3 thousand (data on children are mostly not included – Eurostat), Switzerland – 65.2 thousand, Finland – 56.1 thousand and Portugal – 55.4 thousand.
Eurostat clarified that all the above data relate to the granting of temporary protection on the basis of EU Council Decision 2022/382 of March 4, 2022, which establishes the existence of a massive influx of displaced persons from Ukraine due to Russia’s military invasion and entails the introduction of temporary protection.
According to the UN, a total of 5.88 million refugees from Ukraine were registered in Europe as of August 8, and 6.24 million worldwide.
Ukrainian corn is in stable demand from a number of EU countries, which due to the abnormal heat will not receive their own corn crop, said the analytical cooperative “Pusk”, established within the framework of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Rada (VAR).
“Ukraine exported about 1.2 million tons in July, but the off-season is coming, and only 0.5 million tons are contracted for August,” analysts said at a weekly briefing on Tuesday.
According to their information, the European market is seeing stable small demand from Italy and Spain, where the heat wave of up to 45℃ persists. Also, high temperatures in France are not conducive to the formation of corn crop, the country may not get its own crop. Some importers are buying grain corn now, as there are concerns about the supply of European corn.
The conditional average price of corn is around 175-185 EUR/ton and no significant changes in the market are expected in the near term. The new corn crop is indicatively priced at 150-160 EUR/tonne with delivery in October, but no forward contracts have been signed, experts said.
“It can be predicted that from the second half of August the market will activate,” predicted in “Pusk”.
