About 2 million artillery shells will be produced in the EU in 2025, the newly appointed European Commissioner for Defense and Space, Andrius Kubilius, told Hromadske.
Answering a question about whether Europe has enough production capacity to increase military aid to Ukraine, the official noted that only 20-25% of weapons are produced in the EU, and the rest are bought abroad. According to Kubilius, increasing arms production in the EU requires orders from European governments, which are lacking, and without long-term contracts with arms manufacturers, Europe should not be expected to produce more weapons and ammunition for Ukraine in the coming years.
“Money from the EU budget cannot be used to purchase weapons for Ukraine. There are a number of restrictions on investment in the defense industry outside the EU. However, money from the European Peace Fund or frozen Russian assets can be used to purchase weapons,” the European Commissioner said.
At the same time, Kubilius explains, next year Ukraine will receive about EUR 30 billion from the EU and will decide how much of this amount to use for defense purposes. The EU is currently implementing a new mechanism to integrate the Ukrainian military-industrial complex into the European defense industry.
The final communiqué of the EU summit held on December 18-19 emphasizes that the European Council “plans to intensify its efforts to further support and develop Ukraine’s defense industry and deepen its cooperation with the EU defense industry.”
In 2023, the European Union imported 339.8 thousand tons of spices from non-member countries, according to the EU Statistical Office (Eurostat).
Over the past ten years, imports have increased by 44%.
Last year, China was the main supplier of spices, accounting for 39% of the total supply to the European Union, the report said.
The most popular spice was ginger (114 thousand tons), followed by paprika (110.6 thousand tons) and pepper (50.3 thousand tons). China was the main country of supply for ginger (43%) and paprika (73%), while pepper was mostly purchased from Vietnam (63%).
Turmeric ranked fourth (16 thousand tons), with the bulk of imports coming from India (79%). Cinnamon was in fifth place (13.3 thousand tons), with Vietnam accounting for more than a third of the supply (37%).
Over the past ten years, imports of turmeric and ginger have increased most significantly – by 2.4 times and 2.1 times. At the same time, purchases of pepper abroad decreased by 11%.
During negotiations with representatives of the European Union in Ukraine, the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Agrarian and Land Policy discussed the prospects of receiving grants and financing for the Ukrainian agricultural sector, as well as the introduction of Common Agricultural Practice (CAP) after joining the European Union, MP Serhiy Labaziuk (For the Future party) said in a telegram channel.
Christian Ben Hell, Head of the Agriculture, Fisheries, Forestry and Food Safety Sector of the EU Delegation to Ukraine, informed that Ukrainian farmers have already received grants worth EUR 1.5 billion.
“My colleagues suggest not to tax pomegranates for farmers in any way, as this is actually humanitarian aid. The EU considers it incorrect to take part of it into the budget,” said the MP.
The participants of the meeting stated that the EU requirements for agriculture have been met by more than 71%. In the course of further adaptation of the European legislation, the MPs emphasized the need to introduce changes taking into account the interests of Ukrainian producers.
“Ukrainian farmers want to work with the European market, but this figure will be about 20%. The rest will be transit or export to other countries,” said Labaziuk.
The MPs also raised the issue of the blockade on the Ukrainian-Polish border.
“The committee returned to the issue of parity – whether we will have any problems or manipulations with the export of our products if we fulfill the EU requirements in good faith,” the parliamentarian summarized.
The meeting heard reports from Deputy Minister of Economy and Trade Representative Taras Kachka and Deputy Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food Oksana Osmachko.
On the European market, prices for wheat and corn fell on Monday and Tuesday, while prices for rapeseed and soybeans may remain lower due to the escalation of hostilities in Ukraine last week, German publication Agrarheute.com reported.
Analysts say that the wheat market, which was supported by the escalation of the situation in Ukraine for most of last week, is under pressure due to the lack of new elements, the publication writes.
German experts attribute the decline in wheat and corn prices to the fall of the euro against the dollar: last Friday, its rate was recorded at $1.0333, a two-year low.
“The fall in the euro actually supports European wheat exports (and wheat prices) and slows down high imports of corn and rapeseed,” the resource noted.
Meanwhile, according to most analysts, the dominance of Black Sea wheat remains a factor that puts pressure on the European market, especially given the recent drop in Russian wheat prices. At the same time, wheat from the southern hemisphere is becoming increasingly important on the market.
Agrarheute referred to the data of the European Commission, according to which the European Union has already imported 3.5 mln tonnes of soft wheat since the beginning of 2024-2025 marketing year as of November 17, of which 2.5 mln tonnes, or approximately 70%, came from Ukraine, and the rest – from Canada, Moldova, the USA and Serbia. The main recipients were Spain (almost 2 million tons) and Italy (530 thousand tons).
“Starting December 1, Ukraine will introduce a system of minimum export prices for agricultural products, including wheat, corn and barley. Minimum prices will be calculated by the Ministry of Agrarian Policy on a monthly basis, and exports below these prices will be prohibited,” the publication noted.
Experts emphasized the difficulty of forecasting the situation on the global agricultural market due to the introduction of the mechanism of setting minimum export prices for agricultural products by Ukraine and its impact on the structure of the harvest and Ukrainian exports.
“We are quickly approaching the holiday season, which means there is less fundamental data to trade on the grain markets than we usually get in the rest of the year,” the publication quoted Kaden Sweeney, hedge strategist and market analyst at AgMarket.net, as saying.
Since the December USDA report is always similar to the November report, we probably won’t have any new supply and demand data until January 10, Agrarheute concluded.
As of September 30, 2024, 4 million 197.37 thousand non-EU citizens who fled Ukraine as a result of the Russian invasion on February 24, 2022, had temporary protection status in the EU, compared to 4 million 163.66 thousand citizens a month earlier, Eurostat reports.
“Compared to the end of August 2024, the largest absolute increase in the number of recipients was observed in Germany (+7,005; +0.6%), Poland (+4,645; +0.5%) and Spain (+3,170; +1.5%),” the agency said.
It noted that the number of beneficiaries decreased in France (-570; -0.9%) and Italy (-10; -0.0%).
Thus, in September, the growth in the number of refugees from Ukraine with temporary protection status slowed to 33.7 thousand from 39.8 thousand in August.
According to Eurostat, despite Germany’s deprivation of almost 237,000 people of this status in July, it still remains the country with the largest number of them in the EU and the world – 1,129,34 thousand at the end of September, or 26.9% of the total number of beneficiaries in the EU.
The top three also includes Poland – 979.84 thousand, or 23.3%, and the Czech Republic – 378.48 thousand, or 9.0%.
Spain (218.30 thousand), Romania (172.41 thousand), and Italy (166.79 thousand) follow with a significant lag.
At the same time, Eurostat clarified that the data for Spain, Greece and Cyprus take into account some people whose temporary protection status is no longer valid.
According to the agency, compared to the population of each EU member state, the largest number of temporary protection beneficiaries per thousand people in September 2024 was observed in the Czech Republic (34.7), Lithuania (28.1) and Poland (26.8), while the corresponding figure at the EU level is 9.3.
It is also said that as of September 30, 2024, Ukrainian citizens accounted for more than 98.3% of the beneficiaries of temporary protection. Adult women accounted for almost half (45.0%) of temporary protection beneficiaries in the EU, children for almost a third (32.3%), while adult men accounted for slightly more than a fifth (22.7%) of the total. A year earlier, the share of women was 46.5%, children 33.7% and adult men 19.9%.
At the end of September 2024, there were also more than 100 thousand people with temporary protection status in Slovakia – 126.97 thousand, the Netherlands – 119.01 thousand, and Ireland – 107.93 thousand.
Between 50 thousand and 100 thousand of them were in Belgium – 84.54 thousand, Austria – 81.91 thousand, Lithuania – 81.07 thousand, Norway – 76.11 thousand, Finland – 67.27 thousand, Switzerland – 66.63 thousand, Bulgaria – 64.32 thousand, Portugal – 63.66 thousand and France – 60.10 thousand (data on children are mostly not included – Eurostat).
This is followed by Latvia – 46.99 thousand people, Sweden – 44.63 thousand, Hungary – 37.99 thousand, Denmark – 36.93 thousand, Estonia – 34.24 thousand, Greece – 31.78 thousand, Croatia – 25.40 thousand, Cyprus – 21.68 thousand, Iceland – 3.92 thousand, Luxembourg – 3.82 thousand, Malta – 2.16 thousand and Liechtenstein – 0.66 thousand.
Eurostat clarified that all the above data relate to the granting of temporary protection on the basis of EU Council Decision 2022/382 of March 4, 2022, which establishes the existence of a massive influx of displaced persons from Ukraine due to Russia’s military invasion and entails the introduction of temporary protection. On June 25, 2024, the European Council decided to extend temporary protection for these persons from March 4, 2025 to March 4, 2026.
According to updated UNHCR data, the number of Ukrainian refugees in Europe as of October 15 this year was estimated at 6.192 million, and 6.752 million in the world as a whole, which is 38 thousand and 27 thousand more than as of September 24 this year.
In Ukraine itself, according to the latest UN data as of August this year, there were 3.669 million internally displaced persons (IDPs), which is 121 thousand more than in April this year.
According to regional authorities cited by the UN, between August 1 and October 3, more than 120,000 people left Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine, including 19,500 who fled active hostilities. In Sumy region, the authorities estimate that 36,000 people, including 6,000 children, have been evacuated.
As noted by Deputy Economy Minister Serhiy Sobolev in early March last year, the return of every 100,000 Ukrainians home results in a 0.5% increase in GDP. In its macroeconomic forecast for this year, the Ministry of Economy has included 1.5 million people returning to Ukraine.
At the same time, the National Bank, in its October inflation report, again downgraded its forecast for the outflow from Ukraine this year from 0.4 million to 0.5 million. In absolute terms, the number of migrants staying abroad is expected to increase to 6.8 million this year.
In the new report, the National Bank confirmed its expectation that Ukrainians will start returning home in 2026, but lowered its forecast for net inflows in 2026 to 0.2 million from 0.4 million.
The European Commission (EC) has downgraded its forecast for the European Union’s economic growth in 2024 to 0.9% from the previously expected 1%. The forecast for the eurozone’s GDP growth this year remains at 0.8%. In 2025, the European Commission expects the eurozone’s GDP to grow by 1.3% and the EU’s by 1.5%. The May forecast envisaged a rise of 1.4% and 1.6%, respectively. In 2026, the eurozone’s economic growth rate will accelerate to 1.6%, and the EU’s – to 1.8%, the regulator predicts.
“After a long and widespread stagnation, the EU economy returned to growth in the first quarter of this year. As expected in the spring, moderate but steady growth rates continued in the second and third quarters amid further easing inflationary pressures. The prevailing conditions point to a moderate acceleration in domestic demand, despite heightened uncertainty,” the press release said.
According to the EC’s forecast, inflation (HICP index) in the euro area will slow to 2.4% this year from 5.4% in 2023 and weaken to 2.1% in 2025. In May, inflation rates were forecast at 2.5% and 2.1%, respectively. In 2026, consumer prices are expected to grow by 1.9% in the euro area and by 2% in the EU.
“Household disposable income continued to grow at a good pace in the first half of the year, driven by increased employment and the ongoing recovery in real wages,” the report says.
At the same time, the situation with investments was disappointing, as the indicator decreased by more than 2.5% in the first half of the year. The European Commission called increased uncertainty the main negative factor for both consumer spending and business investment.
Unemployment in the eurozone is expected to reach 6.5% this year and drop to 6.3% next year, remaining at this level until 2026. In the EU, unemployment is expected to decline to 5.9% in 2025 and 2026 from 6.1% in 2024.
In 2024, the budget deficit in the EU countries may shrink to 3.1% of GDP from 3.6% of GDP a year earlier, and in the eurozone countries – to 3%. In 2025, the figures will drop to 3% and 2.9%, respectively, and in 2026 – to 2.9% and 2.8%, the EC predicts.
The ratio of total public debt to GDP in the European Union is expected to increase to 83.4% by 2026 from 82.1% in 2023.
Germany’s economy, according to the EC’s forecast, will shrink by 0.1% this year and grow by 0.7% next year. France’s GDP is expected to grow by 1.1% and 0.8%, respectively, Italy’s by 0.7% and 1%, and Spain’s by 3% and 2.3%.
“The economic outlook for the EU remains extremely uncertain, and the risks are largely shifted downward,” the European Commission said in a statement.
These risks include geopolitical risks, in particular those related to Russia’s military aggression in Ukraine and the conflict in the Middle East, as well as foreign trade risks related to possible “protectionist measures by trading partners.” The EC also points to the risks of weak labor productivity growth and the danger of large-scale natural disasters.
