The international rating agency Fitch Ratings revised upward the price forecast for copper and aluminum for the coming years due to the imbalance in the global market, for gold – due to geopolitical tensions. The experts also adjusted the cost estimates for coking and thermal coal, platinum, palladium and lithium for 2025, reflecting short-term price factors, the agency said.
Expectations for iron ore, nickel, zinc and cobalt were unchanged.
In addition, analysts added a forecast for raw material costs in 2028.
“U.S. trade duties are likely to have implications for the global economy and thus increase volatility in metals prices,” the report said.
The higher forecasts for copper for 2025-2027 reflect a tight global market balance in the short to medium term due to still growing demand from China, although growth slows to 2-3% per year from 7% in 2023. Refined copper consumption in the PRC accounts for almost 60% of global demand.
The lower coking coal forecast for this year reflects weaker steel demand in China, Europe, Japan and South Korea. Meanwhile, coal supplies have been affected by outages at several mines and severe weather conditions. Coking coal demand is likely to recover only towards the end of this year, when new blast furnaces in India and Southeast Asia come online.
Higher aluminum forecasts for 2025-2026 are supported by increased demand, especially in developed markets and China, and limited supply growth, as well as higher alumina prices due to supply disruptions.
Higher gold price expectations for 2025-2027 are driven by a higher geopolitical premium due to the precious metal being considered a “safe haven”.
“Trade war fears and volatility in equity and bond markets have increased investment inflows into gold, leading to record prices. Geopolitical risks and growing investor concerns about inflation and sovereign debt should support prices in the short to medium term,” the Fitch report said.
Expectations for platinum and palladium for this year have been lowered due to a likely price correction due to the impact of the trade war. “We expect suppliers to eventually reduce production, leading to a price recovery in line with our assumptions in 2026,” the agency’s analysts said.
The lowered price forecasts for thermal coal for 2025 reflect weaker demand, especially from China and India, where inventories remain high.
Deteriorating estimates for lithium for the current year reflect rising supplies from China and Africa, contributing to market saturation despite strong demand from electric vehicle manufacturers, Fitch said.
The AM Best rating agency has revised its outlook for the global reinsurance industry sector from stable to positive, citing expectations of high reinsurer profitability, according to the AM Best website.
Despite the slowdown in reinsurance rate growth, underwriting discipline remains strong and profitability remains high enough to cover higher loss activity, as evidenced by the recently published Best’s Segment Outlook.
At the same time, it is emphasized that AM Best’s outlook for the global reinsurance market is positive for the first time in several years.
“Demand for insurance coverage remains strong due to increasing activity in natural catastrophe losses and general economic uncertainty,” said Carlos Wong-Fupui, senior director of AM Best. “We have also taken into account expectations of a slower decline in interest rates than originally anticipated, which is likely to support strong earnings in the short term.”
It is also noted that the reinsurance portfolios of the largest players continue to expand due to a combination of higher reinsurance rates and increased demand. Although the loss ratios in the first quarter of 2024 were affected by large losses, in particular the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore, the insurance margin and annual return on capital remain high.
AM Best is a global credit rating agency, news publisher and data analytics provider specializing in the insurance industry. Headquartered in the United States, the company does business in more than 100 countries and has regional offices in London, Amsterdam, Dubai, Hong Kong, Singapore and Mexico City.
Maritime insurance experts are calling for closer cooperation with shipowners to develop decarbonization strategies, Reinsurance News reports.
The white paper, co-authored by underwriting firm Atrium and Bayes Business School (formerly Cass), City, University of London, emphasizes the crucial role insurers can play in facilitating the transition to greener practices in the shipping industry, the report says.
Noting the urgency of this issue, the document emphasizes that although the shipping sector currently accounts for about 3% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, this figure could soar to 13% in the near future.
This forecast is explained by the relatively slow progress in reducing emissions in the maritime industry compared to other sectors.
The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has implemented two key initiatives: The Existing Ships Energy Efficiency Index (EEXI) and the Carbon Intensity Index (CII), aimed at monitoring and assessing the environmental impact of maritime operations.
The paper outlines several strategies for insurers to promote decarbonization, including incorporating compliance requirements into insurance policies, adjusting premium rates based on compliance data, and working closely with clients to explore innovative solutions.
However, the authors warn that insurers must strike a delicate balance between encouraging decarbonization and remaining competitive in the market.
With global marine insurance premiums expected to reach S35.8 billion in 2022, the document emphasizes the importance of collective action by stakeholders to achieve sustainable development goals while maintaining market competitiveness.
The study emphasizes the need for concerted efforts by all stakeholders involved in the maritime industry to successfully overcome the challenges of decarbonization.
Wall Street experts expect earnings of S&P 500 companies to increase in the current quarter after three quarters of annual decline, The Wall Street Journal writes.
This could create a more stable basis for the recovery of the US stock market, which has stalled recently. The S&P 500 is up nearly 17% year to date, but the index has ended in the red for four of the last six weeks.
The consensus among experts surveyed by FactSet is for S&P 500 earnings to rise 0.5% this quarter and 1.2% for the full year.
Analysts raised their forecasts for the current quarter in the first two months, something that hasn’t happened since the third quarter of 2021, said John Butters, chief earnings analyst at FactSet.
Earnings forecasts are at or near record levels across most segments of the S&P 500, including the IT, communications services and consumer goods companies.
The sub-indices of these segments in the S&P 500 are leading the gainers this year. Thus, the indicator of shares of IT companies has increased since the beginning of the year by 41%, communication services – 43%, manufacturers of consumer goods – 32%.
In recent days, analysts have raised earnings per share forecasts for industrial companies and utility providers to record highs, the WSJ notes. The industrials subindex of the S&P 500 is up 7.1% this year, while utilities are down 11%.
David Lefkowitz, head of US equities at UBS Global Wealth Management, expects the S&P 500 to be around 4,500 at the end of December this year and reach 4,700 by the end of June next year.
As of 17:00 Moscow time on Monday, the index value is 4476.37 points.
Lefkowitz expects the resumption of student loan payments, as well as high energy prices and mortgage rates, to keep the stock market down.
More and more entrepreneurs and organizations are turning to grant programs in the hope of obtaining financial support for their projects. However, many of them make typical mistakes even at the stage of submitting and implementing an application, which can lead to undesirable consequences. In this regard, Kyiv Analytical Center “Experts Club” together with the founder of “Granta” company and grant projects implementation expert Olga Shaverina, launched a series of YouTube videos, dedicated to the peculiarities of grant financing. In the first video Olga Shaverina shared her experience and told about the most common mistakes made by beginner grantees, as well as gave recommendations on how to avoid them.
The first mistake many people make is not trusting grantmaking tools. Some entrepreneurs do not realize the opportunities that grants provide and miss the chance to get funding for their projects. Lack of information about grant programs and lack of knowledge about procedures can cause missed opportunities.
The second mistake, according to the expert, has to do with not accepting the fact that business is part of society. Many entrepreneurs forget that grant programs are usually aimed at solving social problems or supporting certain social initiatives. Emphasizing the social importance of their project can help in attracting the attention of grantmakers.
The third mistake is neglecting procedures. This is a critical component of successful grantmaking, where proper paperwork and adherence to grant program requirements are critical to your success. Negligence in this matter can cause the application to be rejected.
“Reassign the preparation of the grant application to your secretary on the principle of “He/She can do it! ” because he/she knows how to do the paperwork is the most common mistake among applicants. Most projects fail exactly on this basis,” says Olga Shaverina.
The fourth mistake entrepreneurs often make is underestimating the cost of training. First of all it is a question of labor inputs, because preparation of the grant application demands time, efforts and resources. Some entrepreneurs underestimate the amount of work required to prepare a quality application. Developing a detailed budget, creating a project plan, and analyzing the market and competitors all require careful preparation and research. The lack of a detailed plan and an incomplete understanding of the necessary resources can lead to project failure.
Finally, a fifth mistake worth noting is misunderstanding partnerships and consultant selection. Working in partnership with other organizations or consultants can greatly improve the chances of a successful grant project. However, choosing partners incorrectly or not understanding their role and contribution to the project can lead to conflicts and ineffective work. The criteria for selecting partners and consultants must be clearly defined and meet the goals and needs of the project.
Ms. Shaverina also emphasized the importance of a proper understanding of reporting. Many entrepreneurs underestimate the importance of reporting and do not pay adequate attention to it. Failure to comply with reporting requirements may result in penalties or loss of funding. Therefore, it is necessary to carefully study the reporting requirements and provide all the necessary documents in a timely manner.
Maxim Urakin, founder of the Club of Experts, in turn, shared statistics on grant assistance to Ukraine for the years 2022-2023. Thus, he noted that in 2022 international aid to Ukraine amounted to more than $32 billion, including 18 billion in grant support.
“This year Ukraine has already received about $19 billion in assistance, of which $11 billion was received in January-March, of which $3.7 billion came in the form of grants. That is why grant assistance, including those for specific projects, is extremely important for our economy under current conditions,” said Maxim Uralkin.
So, grant programs are an important tool for business development and implementation of social initiatives. However, in order to receive grant support successfully, it is necessary to avoid common mistakes, which the experts told us about. Compliance with requirements and procedures, understanding the importance of the social aspect of the project, choosing the right partners and consultants, as well as consciously estimating costs and preparing for reporting are all factors that can increase the chances of success.
You can learn more about the mistakes you make when submitting a grant proposal by watching the video on the Club of Experts YouTube channel:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8F7qjrSoWac
Subscribe to the channel at:
CLUB_EXPERTS, EXPERTS, GRANT_APPLICATION, GRANT_FUNDING, GRANTS, SHAVERINA, URAKIN
On May 18, 2023, the capital’s Club of Experts will host a bright event for wine lovers – Wine Evening “Consumer Tasting of the Best Craft Wines of Ukraine-2023”. The event will feature the products of the best Ukrainian winemakers based on the results of the VIII All-Ukrainian Tasting Competition “Variety and Terroir. Micro winemaking. Unbreakable”, which took place on April 1, 2023.
According to Natalia Blagopoluchna, President of the Ukrainian Association of Winemakers and Sommeliers, the Wine Evening will create an opportunity for each guest to try themselves as a wine expert and taster, gain rich experience and taste the unique flavors of the best Ukrainian wines.
“Wine Evening provides a great opportunity to discover the diversity of Ukrainian wine. You may already be familiar with some of these brands, but the tasting is a chance to taste them in a new light, compare them with other wines, listen to the experts’ opinions and gain new knowledge about winemaking,” she said.
In his turn, the founder of the Club of Experts, Maksim Urakin, emphasized that the Tasting Evening is an event where you can meet like-minded people, communicate with experts, exchange experience, ideas and impressions. It is a place where new business relationships and partnerships are created, new ideas and projects emerge.
“Our competition for the Best Wine of the Wine Evening is of great interest to the guests of the evening. The producer of the most delicious wine, determined by the participants of the event, will receive a Diploma from the Club of Experts. This competition not only raises the mood, but also creates friendly competition between producers, encouraging them to continuously improve,” he emphasized.
In addition, according to Maksim Urakin, today more and more people in the world are showing interest in craft wines and want to learn more about the history and technology of this beverage. Events such as the Wine Evening are becoming important and necessary, they help to develop wine culture, open new horizons for winemakers and consumers, and make a huge contribution to the formation of the Ukrainian wine market.
Guests will be invited to taste the winning wines accompanied by craft gastronomy. The program of the evening includes the best sparkling rosé wine of 2021 from TM My Wine and Eduard Gorodetsky, the best Riesling of 2021 from Vladimir Simakin, Chardonnay of 2022 from TM Babchuk Winery, and many others. Full list of winners of the VIII All-Ukrainian Tasting Competition “Variety and Terroir. Micro winemaking. Unbreakable”:
1. Nomination “Sparkling wines” – “Sparkling pink, 2021”, TM “My Wine”, Eduard Gorodetsky
2. Nomination “Best Riesling” – “Riesling, 2021”, Vladimir Simakin
3. Nomination “Best Chardonnay” – “Chardonnay, 2022”, TM “Babchuk Winery”
4. Nomination “White Local Variety” – “Zagrei, 2022”, National Scientific Center “V.E. Tairov Institute of Viticulture and Winemaking
5. Nomination “Orange wines” – “Orange, 2021”, TM “Kovacs Wines”
6. Nomination “Pink wines” – Pinot Noir, 2021″, TM “My Wine”, Eduard Gorodetsky
7. Nomination “Best Pinot Noir” – “Pinot Noir, 2020”, TM “46 Parallel” – gold medal
8. Nomination “Best Merlot” – “Merlot, 2020”, TM “NAROVYLO WINERY”
9. Nomination “Best Cabernet Sauvignon” – “Cabernet Sauvignon, 2021”, TM “Mon Crafto”
10. Nomination “Red local variety” – “Aliberne, 2020”, TM “NAROVYLO WINERY”
11. Nomination “Red Blend” – “KS/KF/Merlot, 2020”, TM “NAROVYLO WINERY” – Grand Prix of the Competition (the best wine of the Competition), 100 points from the Chairman of the Jury Ricardo Nunez!
12. Nomination “Dessert wines” – “Muscat of the Carpathians, 2014”, TM “Kovach Wines”
It should be noted that each nomination represents unique wines that have been recognized as the best in their categories.
The cost of participation in the event is 1000 UAH, which includes tasting of all presented wines and delicious culinary accompaniments from craft chefs. This event will be a real treat for gourmets and wine lovers, as well as a great opportunity for winemakers to present their products to a wide range of professionals and wine connoisseurs.
The organizers of the Wine Evening are:
1. Ukrainian Association of Winemakers and Sommeliers;
2. Club of experts.
Information Partners: Interfax-Ukraine news agency; Open4business Internet portal.
General partner: UKRSADVINPROM.
Speaker of the Wine Evening: President of the Ukrainian Association of Winemakers and Sommeliers, wine expert, head of the First Sommelier School in Ukraine – Natalia Blagopoluchna.
Address of the event: 51/1a Tyutyunnyk St., Kyiv, Ukraine
Phone number for accreditation 0661480354
Do not miss the unique opportunity to join the Wine Evening “Consumer tasting of the best craft wines of Ukraine-2023”. For those who appreciate the culture of wine, this is a great opportunity to immerse yourself in the fascinating world of winemaking, meet those who share your passion, and discover new horizons of taste.
CLUB OF EXPERTS, craft wine, EXPERTS, Natalia Blagopoluchna, UKRSADVYNPROM, WINE, wine competition, Wine Evening, WINEMAKING, МАКСИМ УРАКИН
