Grain and oilseed exports from Ukraine in 2023 will drop by a third to 46 million tons per year, Agrarian Policy Minister Mykola Solsky said at a meeting of the Agriculture and Fisheries Council in Brussels on Tuesday.
“Compared to last year, this year’s exports of grain and oilseed crops from Ukraine are expected to decrease by a third to 46 million tons per year. Consequently, Ukraine will be able to export less grain than last year by 40%,” the press service of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy quoted the minister’s speech to European colleagues.
European Commissioner for Agriculture Janusz Wojciechowski also said at a press conference after the meeting of the agrarian ministers that the EU expects Ukraine to reduce its exports in 2023 because “the country has limited cultivated areas and expects a 40% lower harvest”.
He expressed confidence that this factor will improve the organization of “routes of solidarity” and send “all exports through them.
Wojciechowski positively assessed the prolongation of exports within the framework of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which “will facilitate the export of grain from Ukraine for two months”.
The European Commissioner also recalled the need to take into account the situation with the possible blocking of exports of Ukrainian agricultural products “as it already happened before” through the Black Sea grain corridor and urged to consider the total volume of Ukrainian exports when planning the work of “solidarity corridors”.
In January-April this year, Ukraine reduced exports of carbon steel semi-finished products in physical terms by 3.9 times compared to the same period last year, to 296,132 thousand tons.
According to the statistics released by the State Customs Service (SCS), in monetary terms, exports of carbon steel semi-finished products amounted to $158.256 million in the period, down 4.5 times.
The main exports were made to Poland (40.53% of supplies in monetary terms), Bulgaria (15.87%) and the Dominican Republic (9.21%).
In January-April, Ukraine imported 72 tons of semi-finished products from China worth $133 thousand.
As reported, in 2022, Ukraine decreased exports of carbon steel semi-finished products in physical terms by 72% compared to the previous year – to 1 million 899.729 thousand tons, and in monetary terms by 70.9% – to $1 billion 191.279 million. The main exports were made to Bulgaria (26.55% of supplies in monetary terms), Poland (13.97%) and Italy (12.13%).
In addition, Ukraine imported 5,558 thousand tons of similar products in 2022, which is 85.7% less than in 2021. In monetary terms, imports decreased by 86% to $3.634 million. Imports were carried out from the Russian Federation (96.92% of supplies before the war), China (1.84%), and Romania (1.21%).
In January-April this year, mining companies in Ukraine reduced the export of iron ore raw materials (iron ore) in physical terms by 2.44 times compared to the same period last year – up to 5 million 324.686 thousand tons.
According to the statistics, released by the State Customs Service (SCS), over the period the currency proceeds from the export of iron ore amounted to $ 591.5 million, which is 2.7 times less than over the same period last year.
The export of iron ore products was carried out mainly to Slovakia (27.37% of supplies in monetary terms), Czech Republic (25.82%) and Poland (24.04%).
In the first four months of this year, Ukraine imported iron ore products for $41 thousand and a total of 67 tons, whereas in January-April 2022 there were imported iron ore products for $1 thousand and a total of 2 tons.
Imports for this period came from Norway (58.54%) and Italy (41.46%).
As reported, in 2022, Ukraine has reduced the export of iron ore products in kind by 45.9% compared to the previous year – up to 23 million 984.623 tons, foreign exchange earnings decreased by 57.8% to $2 billion 912.974 million.
Exports of iron ore products was carried out mainly to Slovakia (19.23% in monetary terms), Czech Republic (17.32%) and Poland (16.49%).
Last year Ukraine imported iron ore to the amount of $65 thousand in total 101 tons, while in 2021 – $184 thousand in the amount of 1.202 tons.
Imports were carried out from Norway (36.92%), the Netherlands (27.69%) and the UK (16.92%).
Ukrainian companies in January-April this year increased the export of scrap ferrous metals in 5 times compared to the same period last year – up to 56.449 thousand tons from 12.470 thousand tons.
According to statistics, promulgated by the State Customs Service (SCS), exports of scrap metal for the period amounted to $16.684 million (an increase of 3 times) in monetary terms.
However, in March and April, there was an increase in exports of scrap metal: if about 8.28 thousand tons of scrap metal was exported in January and 16.5 thousand tons in February, then in March – 15.45 thousand tons and in April – about 16.19 thousand tons.
Exports of scrap metal in January-April 2023 was carried out in Poland (97.37%), the Netherlands (1.10%) and Slovakia (0.67%).
In the first two months of the year, the country did not import scrap metal, in March-April, 176 tons of scrap metal worth $64 thousand (49.23% from Slovakia, 21.54% from Moldova and 15.38% from the Netherlands).
Earlier, Alexander Kalenkov, president of Ukrmetallurgprom, stated in his column on Interfax-Ukraine that scrap metal is exported via the European Union, where a preferential export duty of EUR3 per ton operates, and from there the raw material is redirected to actual customers. It would cost EUR 180 export duties if the scrap metal was exported directly to the customers – and the Ukrainian budget has already lost 350 million hryvnias on it.
According to him, the State Bureau of Investigation has already taken interest in such export schemes.
The head of “Ukrmetallurgprom” urged to temporarily ban the export of scrap ferrous metals to provide the strategically important raw materials in the ongoing war.
“If scrap metal will remain in the country – more than 500 thousand people will have jobs, and the country will have millions of foreign exchange earnings from the export of steel. At the same time, the military also benefits, because metallurgists help the fighters a lot by buying equipment and cars for them, and even producing body armor. Nobody benefits from the export of scrap metal. That is why now the authorities should be proactive and temporarily ban the export until the situation stabilizes and stops threatening the national economic security,” says Kalenkov.
He noted that a ton of scrap metal, processed into steel, provides 10 times more to the budget than the export duty in the EU – about $300 per ton.
As reported, Ukraine in 2022, reduced exports of scrap ferrous metals in 11.5 times compared to the previous year – up to 53.557 tons, in monetary terms down to 12.4 times – to $ 19.271 million. At the same time last year, the country reduced the import of scrap metal in kind by 12.6 times – to 1.824 tons. Imports of scrap metal in 2022 was carried out mainly from Turkey (78.92% of supplies in monetary terms), Russia (13.25%) and Cyprus (5.08%), while exports – to Turkey (38.97%), Poland (34.25%) and Greece (10.12%).
Wheat exports from Ukraine in the upcoming 2023/24 marketing year (MY) will be 10 million tons compared to 15 million tons in the current 2022/23 MY, while corn will be 16.5 million tons compared to 25.5 million tons, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts.
In its report, it is said that this is due to a smaller harvest and reduction of export stocks.
In addition, the USDA expects barley exports from Ukraine to decrease by 0.1 million tons in the upcoming MY – to 2.3 million tons.
Compared with the forecast of a month ago, the US Department of Agriculture improved its estimate of wheat export for this year by 0.5 million tons – up to 15 million tons, explaining it by better-than-expected performance of “grain corridor” and “lines of solidarity”.
As for the upcoming harvest, the USDA expects Ukraine’s wheat production this year to drop to 16.5 million tons from 20.9 million tons last year and 33.01 million tons in 2021.
He estimates that the harvest of other grains will fall to 28.67 million tons from 34.06 million tons last year and 53.51 the year before.
In particular, corn will be harvested 22 million tons compared to 27 million tons a year ago and 42.13 million tons in 2021, barley – respectively 5.9 million tons against 6.18 million tons and 9.92 million tons, oats – 350 thousand tons against 390 thousand tons and 478 thousand tons.
In the first quarter of 2023 compared to the first quarter of 2022, Ukraine increased exports of soybean oil by 36.6% – up to 78.091 thousand tons, in monetary terms rose by 1.6% – to $ 77.689 million.
Export of soybean oil in 2022 was 237.025 thousand tons, which is 1.7% less than in 202211.
In monetary terms, exports rose by 3.2% to $304.685 million.
