Wheat exports from Ukraine in the upcoming 2023/24 marketing year (MY) will be 10 million tons compared to 15 million tons in the current 2022/23 MY, while corn will be 16.5 million tons compared to 25.5 million tons, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts.
In its report, it is said that this is due to a smaller harvest and reduction of export stocks.
In addition, the USDA expects barley exports from Ukraine to decrease by 0.1 million tons in the upcoming MY – to 2.3 million tons.
Compared with the forecast of a month ago, the US Department of Agriculture improved its estimate of wheat export for this year by 0.5 million tons – up to 15 million tons, explaining it by better-than-expected performance of “grain corridor” and “lines of solidarity”.
As for the upcoming harvest, the USDA expects Ukraine’s wheat production this year to drop to 16.5 million tons from 20.9 million tons last year and 33.01 million tons in 2021.
He estimates that the harvest of other grains will fall to 28.67 million tons from 34.06 million tons last year and 53.51 the year before.
In particular, corn will be harvested 22 million tons compared to 27 million tons a year ago and 42.13 million tons in 2021, barley – respectively 5.9 million tons against 6.18 million tons and 9.92 million tons, oats – 350 thousand tons against 390 thousand tons and 478 thousand tons.
In the first quarter of 2023 compared to the first quarter of 2022, Ukraine increased exports of soybean oil by 36.6% – up to 78.091 thousand tons, in monetary terms rose by 1.6% – to $ 77.689 million.
Export of soybean oil in 2022 was 237.025 thousand tons, which is 1.7% less than in 202211.
In monetary terms, exports rose by 3.2% to $304.685 million.
Ukraine’s export of butter increased by 50.8% to 2.568 thousand tons, in monetary terms – by 44.4%, to $13.891 million. Imports of this products fell by 3.8 times, to 182 tons, in monetary terms – 3.3 times, to $ 1.362 million.
Most of the butter was exported to Moldova (27.97% of supplies in monetary terms), Azerbaijan (19.10%) and Israel (13.55%). Imports came from Germany (48.94%), France (17.09%) and Poland (12.84%).
Ukraine exported through seaports of Odessa region by 7% more agricultural products than a week earlier, its volume was 702.3 thousand tons. The increase in shipments was achieved due to the tonnage of ships, said the Ukrainian Agrarian Confederation of Business (UCAB).
“The number of ships loaded this week was only 14 units, which is two vessels less than the previous week. In fact, increase of shipments was achieved due to increase of tonnage of ships,” – analysts noted.
According to their information, corn (56%), wheat (18%) and sunflower oil cake (14%) took the major part in the export structure of Ukrainian agricultural products through this channel.
Ukrainian products went to Asian countries (China, Bangladesh, India and others), Europe (Spain, Portugal and Italy) and Africa (Egypt).
At the same time, the overall situation with the operation of the “grain corridor” continues to deteriorate. The Russian side suspended the inspection of ships on Tuesday, April 11 and Monday, April 17, 2023.
In the next three days, inspections of ships in the “grain corridor” will resume in accordance with a 50:50 temporary scheme, according to which 50% of inspections will be carried out by ships of the formed line, another 50% – by humanitarian cargoes.
In total, since the beginning of the “grain corridor” from August 1, 2022 to April 16, 2023, Ukraine has exported 28.1 million tons of agricultural products.
Ukrainian sugar producers have asked EU countries to reconsider the sugar export ban on domestic EU markets and resume it taking into account the sugar shortage in Europe, Nazar Mykhailovin, acting head of Ukrtsukor, said.
“Not all countries impose an embargo on Ukrainian products. We need a way through which we can sell exports of sugar. We have to forget about the sea route for some time, but the transit through the EU countries, particularly through Poland and Romania is needed,” he commented to Interfax-Ukraine agency about the situation with the export of Ukrainian sugar to the EU.
According to the industry association, during the period from June 2022 to March 2023 almost 99.9% of Ukrainian sugar was sold on the EU internal market.
The top countries that bought Ukrainian sugar in March 2023 included Romania, Poland, Hungary, Italy, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic and Croatia. Poland, one of the first to ban imports of Ukrainian sugar, bought 8,242 tons of the product from Ukraine, Mikhailovin said.
“Since the beginning of the war, Ukraine has lost its sea export corridor, which has become inaccessible for Ukrainian sugar. Accordingly, the export was carried out mainly to European countries.
At the same time Mikhailovin reminded that due to the beginning of the war the EU made a decision, thanks to which and the presence of export potential Ukraine has the ability to export sugar to the EU domestic markets.
In the sugar beet sugar production season of the 2022 harvest, the factories produced 1.330 million tons of products, which fully met the needs of the domestic market and export potential, the industry association said.
“In the 2022/2023 marketing year, the export potential will depend on the area sown under sugar beet, weather conditions and yields in both Ukraine and Europe,” Mikhailovin said.