In its September forecast, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) raised its estimate for wheat production in Ukraine in the 2026/27 marketing year by 0.6 million metric tons compared to August—to 26 million metric tons—but at the same time lowered its forecast for Ukrainian exports by 1 million metric tons—to 12.5 million metric tons.
According to the September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, published by the USDA on September 11, 2026, the upward revision of the harvest forecast is due to record-high yields of Ukrainian wheat as the harvest nears completion. In August, the agency had estimated production at 25.4 million metric tons.
The forecast for domestic consumption of Ukrainian wheat has been raised from 9.2 million metric tons to 9.5 million metric tons, including feed consumption—from 4.2 million metric tons to 4.5 million metric tons.
At the same time, the USDA significantly raised its forecast for Ukraine’s ending wheat stocks—from 4.8 million metric tons in the August forecast to 6.1 million metric tons in September. Imports are expected to total 0.1 million metric tons.
Thus, despite the improved harvest estimate, the additional production is not translating into a corresponding increase in exports and is largely contributing to a buildup in domestic stocks.
The USDA attributes the downward revision of Ukraine’s export estimate—as well as Russia’s—to slow shipment rates in August and logistical challenges in the Black Sea region due to the ongoing war.
Ukraine remains one of the largest suppliers of wheat to the global market. According to the USDA forecast, global wheat trade in the 2026/27 marketing year will total approximately 211.8 million metric tons.
Source: USDA WASDE-675 report dated September 11, 2026: USDA WASDE September 2026
According to Experts Club, the U.S. Department of Agriculture has maintained its forecast for corn production in Ukraine in the 2026/27 marketing year at 31.8 million metric tons, despite a significant revision to the global corn harvest estimate.
According to the USDA’s September WASDE report, the forecast for Ukrainian corn exports has also remained unchanged at 22 million metric tons. Domestic consumption is expected to reach 7.2 million metric tons, of which 5.5 million metric tons will be used for feed.
At the same time, the U.S. agency raised its forecast for Ukraine’s ending corn stocks by 0.6 million metric tons—from 4.86 million metric tons in August to 5.46 million metric tons in September.
Opening stocks were also revised upward—from 2.25 million metric tons to 2.85 million metric tons. Corn imports are expected to be minimal—about 10,000 metric tons.
The situation on the global market is unfolding differently. The USDA has lowered its forecast for global corn production in the 2026/27 marketing year by nearly 8 million metric tons—from 1,298.88 million metric tons to 1,290.95 million metric tons.
The forecast for global corn trade was reduced by a much smaller margin—from 210.48 million metric tons to 210.08 million metric tons—and the forecast for ending stocks was lowered from 274.66 million metric tons to 272.10 million metric tons.
The main decline in production is linked, in particular, to worsening forecasts for the United States, India, Kenya, and Russia. At the same time, production estimates for the EU were raised.
Source: USDA WASDE-675 dated September 11, 2026: USDA September Report
From September 1 to 9, Ukraine exported 630,000 metric tons of grains, oilseeds, and products derived from them, Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food Taras Vysotsky said at a briefing on Friday.
“From September 1 to 9, 630,000 metric tons of grains, oilseeds, and their processed products were exported. As of today, this represents 40% of what we could have exported. We ended August at 33%. Our forecast remains unchanged—to reach 50% of the target for September–October,” Vysotsky said.
According to him, 380,000 metric tons of grains were exported (35% of demand), 94,000 metric tons of oilseeds (64%), 97,000 metric tons of oil (66%), and 60,000 metric tons of meal (33%).
Vysotsky noted that compared to 2025, exports of grains, oilseeds, and their processed products have decreased by 60%.
Imports of goods into Ukraine from January through August 2026 increased by 26% in monetary terms compared to the same period in 2025—from $52.6 billion to $66.3 billion, according to data from the Telegram channel of the State Customs Service (SCS) of Ukraine.
Exports, however, despite a 4% increase in January–July, slowed in January–August and remained nearly at last year’s level—$26.6 billion compared to $26.6 billion last year.
Meanwhile, taxable imports totaled $46.8 billion, accounting for 71% of the total volume of imported goods.
“The tax burden per kilogram of taxable imports in January–August 2025 was $0.6/kg,” the agency added.
The largest volumes of goods were imported into Ukraine from China ($19.6 billion), Poland ($6.3 billion), and Germany ($4.4 billion).
The largest exports from Ukraine went to Poland ($3.2 billion), Turkey ($2.1 billion), and Germany ($1.7 billion).
Of the total volume of goods imported in January–August 2026, 73% consisted of machinery, equipment, and transportation vehicles—$29.9 billion (customs clearance of these goods generated 168.1 billion UAH in budget revenue, accounting for 29% of customs revenue), chemical industry products—$9 billion (74.9 billion
UAH was paid to the budget, or 13% of customs revenue), and fuel and energy products—$9.5 billion (197 billion UAH was paid, accounting for 34% of customs revenue).
The top three most exported goods from Ukraine were: food products—$15.4 billion; metals and metal products—$2.7 billion; and machinery, equipment, and transportation vehicles—$2.4 billion.
In the first 8 months of 2026, customs clearance of exports subject to export duties generated 1.1 billion UAH in revenue for the budget, compared to 174.2 million UAH during the same period last year.
As previously reported, since July of this year, operations at the ports of “Greater Odesa” and their terminals have become significantly more difficult due to intensified attacks on ships and port infrastructure.