The growth of real GDP of Ukraine in the first quarter of 2018 in annual terms (quarter-over-quarter) was 2.3%, according to the assessments of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU). The growth was thanks to the further increase in population income and retaining the favorable situation on foreign markets.
“An additional factor was the reduction in the comparison base of last year under the influence of the trade blockade of uncontrolled areas last year, the full effect from which is expected from the second quarter,” the central bank said in its inflation report released on Friday night.
At the same time, the NBU points out that the worsening of weather conditions at the end of February and in March somewhat inhibited the revival of economic activity, particularly in transport and construction.
According to the central bank, domestic demand remained the main factor of economic growth. Private consumption supported further increases in salaries and social standards, including an increase in pensions at the end of last year and a minimum wage from the beginning of 2018, as well as improving consumer expectations of households.
“The acceleration in the growth of production of machine-building products, in particular automobile and railway, was the indicator of the further growth,” the NBU said.
The central bank said that in January-February 2018, exports continued to grow, mainly thanks to the increase in the supply of some food products, wood and products made from it, as well as ferrous metals. At the same time, consumer imports were growing at a rapid pace, contributing to the change in GDP.
The World Bank has kept the forecast for Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2018 at 3.5%, Lead Economist and Program Leader covering Belarus, Moldova and Ukraine Faruk Khan said in Kyiv on Tuesday.
“Economic growth is projected at 3.5% in 2018 if pending reforms in anticorruption, land markets, state-owned banks, and privatization can be advanced in the next few months. This would provide an important signal to investors. If reforms are delayed, growth could drop below current levels in an uncertain macroeconomic environment as financing risks rapidly increase,” the World Bank said in a press release.
According to the World Bank’s economic update for Ukraine, the growth outlook has become more uncertain, but safeguarding macroeconomic stability and completing key pending reforms by July 2018 to bolster investor confidence can help boost growth in the next two years.
“The complex political environment ahead of the 2019 elections is affecting reform prospects, but a window of opportunity exists to complete key reforms by July 2018. Reforms in land markets, the financial sector, anticorruption, and privatization would not only address medium-term growth bottlenecks, but also provide an important immediate signal to strengthen investor confidence,” the World Bank said.
The World Bank’s experts said that addressing macroeconomic vulnerabilities and containing inflationary pressures to reduce cost of funds for the private sector is also important to strengthen investor confidence. Under such a scenario with continued improvements in investor confidence, economic growth could improve to 3.5% in 2018 and 4% in 2019, with fixed investment growing by about 15%.
