The price of gold has exceeded $3,110 per ounce for the first time, and silver is trading at its highest level in 13 years due to increased investor interest in safe-haven assets amid tense global trade, Trading Economics reports.
US President Donald Trump is expected to unveil a plan on Wednesday to increase import duties on products from a number of countries.
Quotes of April gold contracts on the Comex exchange on Monday rose by 1% to $3118 per ounce. Since the beginning of this year, the rise is about 18%, a record quarterly increase since 1986.
Goldman Sachs analysts expect prices to reach $3300 per ounce by the end of the year.
Silver rose by 0.6% to $34,855 per ounce.
On Wednesday, the most actively traded gold futures hit a record high as investors avoided risk amid heightened geopolitical tensions and the situation around tariffs. April gold futures are up 0.1% during trading on Wednesday and are trading at $3045 per ounce. At the same time, quotes reached $3052.5 per ounce during the session.
Since the beginning of the year, the price of gold has risen by 14.6%, over the past 12 months – by 34.1%.
Israel has launched the deadliest strike on Gaza since the ceasefire in the conflict with Hamas and warned that this is “just the beginning,” Trading Economics writes.
Meanwhile, US tariffs, including a 25 percent levy on steel and aluminum, have increased tensions in global trade, and Washington’s counter duties on imports from countries that impose duties on US goods are due to take effect in early April.
“It is planned to impose duties on April 2,” the White House said.
“Unless customs and non-customs barriers are equalized or US duties are higher, these duties will go into effect,” Reuters quoted a White House official as saying.
In addition, on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will summarize the results of its regular meeting, which, along with the interest rate decision, will release new forecasts for the US economy.
India imported $2.338 billion worth of gold in February 2025, according to the country’s Ministry of Commerce and Industry. This is 62% less than in February last year and 13% less than in January this year.
In general, for 2 months of the year, gold imports to India amounted to $5.025 billion, which is 38% less than the result of the corresponding period last year.
In 2024, according to the Ministry, India imported 812 tons of gold worth $58.096 billion. India is one of the largest consumers of gold in the world, producing almost no gold itself.
Gold futures may rise in price to $3.2 thousand per ounce in the fourth quarter of this year amid increased demand for protective assets, according to analysts at Swiss bank UBS.
The previous forecast predicted an increase in quotations to $3 thousand per ounce, but futures overcame this mark last week.
The escalation of trade conflicts emphasizes the role of the precious metal as a safe haven asset, said UBS experts led by Wayne Gordon and Giovanni Staunovo. In their opinion, additional demand for gold will be spurred by fears of a recession in the United States.
“We continue to believe that the decision to have about 5% gold in the investment portfolio will be optimal from a long-term diversification perspective,” they wrote.
Meanwhile, DoubleLine Capital founder and chief investment officer Jeffrey Gundlach set an even more optimistic target price for gold at $4,000 per ounce.
“Gold is continuing the rally we’ve been talking about for several years now,” said the investor, who has been nicknamed the ”King of Bonds. – “I will make a bold prediction and say that gold will reach $4 thousand.
Gundlach added that he was not sure it would happen this year. At the same time, he noted that gold purchases by central banks are growing “on a very, very sharp trajectory,” and this is unlikely to change in the near future.
In his opinion, the probability of a recession in the US economy this year is about 60%.
April gold futures are little changed in price on Monday afternoon and are trading at $3002.8 per ounce. Since the beginning of the year, the price of gold has risen by 12.7%.
According to MarketWatch, in January 1980, at the height of a period of particularly high inflation in the United States, which exceeded 14%, gold prices reached $873 per ounce. Adjusted for inflation in today’s money, this amounts to about $3,580 thousand per ounce, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
China increased its gold reserves by 44.17 tons in 2024 to a record 2279.57 tons, according to the China Gold Association (CGA). The PRC ranks sixth in the world in terms of reserves of this precious metal, Xinhua reports.
Gold consumption in the country last year decreased by 9.6% to 985.31 tons. Total gold production from domestic and imported raw materials increased by 2.85% to 534.106 tons.
In 2024, China’s largest companies mined 71.937 tons of gold at foreign mines, up 19.1% year-on-year.
World central banks in November, according to preliminary estimates by the World Gold Council (WGC), increased the amount of gold in their foreign exchange reserves by 53.4 tons.
“Looking to the end of 2024, central banks around the world continued to play a leading role in gold demand,” said WGC analyst Krishan Gopaul. – “November was another month of gold purchases, with central banks adding a total of 53 tons to official reserves, according to available data. This continues the trend observed throughout the year: central banks, mostly from emerging markets, remained active buyers of gold, driven by a desire to find a stable and reliable asset in the face of global economic uncertainty.”
The largest buyers of gold in November were Poland (21 tons), Uzbekistan (9 tons), India (8.4 tons), and Kazakhstan (5.1 tons). According to Gopol, for the first time since April, China reported an increase in reserves (plus 5 tons). Other buyers included Jordan (4.1 tons), Turkey (3 tons), the Czech Republic (1.6 tons), Ghana (1.2 tons), Mongolia and Malta (less than a ton).
Singapore was the main seller of gold (5.2 tons). Also in December, the central bank of Finland reported a 10% reduction in its gold reserves to 44 tons, a sale that most likely took place the same month, WGC said.
