According to the Serbian business media outlet Parametar, a serious train accident occurred in Croatia on October 10 on the approach to the Meja station near Rijeka. Freight train No. 82318, operated by Transagent and carrying a grain cargo toward Rijeka, derailed.
According to official data from HŽ Infrastruktura, the accident occurred around 9:25 a.m. on the incoming track at Meja Station. Eleven cars derailed and ended up in a deep ravine. The locomotive and two other cars remained at the station. There were no injuries, but significant property damage was caused to the railway infrastructure, and the Plase–Meja section is closed to traffic.
The Croatian Agency for the Investigation of Incidents in Air, Maritime, and Rail Transport (AIN) has launched an investigation into the circumstances of the accident. The agency confirmed that a report of a serious incident was received on October 10 at approximately 9:25 a.m. and concerned the derailment of several cars of train No. 82318 on line M202.
According to the Croatian publication Novi list, 11 cars were loaded with grain, presumably of Ukrainian origin. However, an official statement from HŽ Infrastruktura confirms only the transport of grain and does not specify the country of origin of the cargo.
A preliminary theory under consideration is that the locomotive’s brakes failed.
The train belonged to the carrier Transagent Rail, part of the Transagent logistics group based in Rijeka. The company specializes in rail and multimodal freight transportation in Central and Southeastern Europe.
The investigation into this accident is ongoing. The exact causes of the derailment are to be determined by AIN experts.
Source: HŽ Infrastruktura, Croatian Agency for the Investigation of Accidents in Air, Maritime, and Rail Transport (AIN), Novi list.
Global grain trade in the 2026/27 agricultural year (July–June) will total 505.8 million metric tons, down 3.5% from last year, according to a forecast by the FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations).
According to the organization’s monthly grain report, the new estimate is 3.5 million metric tons lower than the previous forecast made in September. “This reflects a downward revision of wheat and corn export forecasts, driven primarily by shipping difficulties through the Black Sea and insufficient capacity on alternative transport routes,” the report states. “The upward revision to the barley trade forecast only partially offsets the lost corn and wheat trade volumes.”
Forecasts for corn exports from the EU were lowered due to reduced supply from Ukraine resulting from logistical difficulties. At the same time, an increase in export supply from Australia has allowed for an upward revision of the forecast for barley trade, a significant portion of which will be shipped to China.
The improved forecast for wheat exports from Kazakhstan has not fully offset the decline in shipments from Russia and Ukraine.
According to the forecast, international rice trade will decline by 2.2% in calendar year 2026; however, it may increase by 1.7% in 2027, reaching 61.2 million metric tons. “In 2027, a recovery in import demand is projected in most regions; however, the availability of sufficient domestic stocks in East Asian countries suggests that the downward trend in their purchasing volumes may continue for the third consecutive year,” the document states.
According to the FAO forecast, the wheat harvest in 2026 will total 813.9 million metric tons, which is 3.3% less than last year, while the total grain output will be 2 billion 979 million metric tons (2.1% less).
As of September 29, Ukrainian farmers had harvested 34.3 million metric tons of grain and legumes from 7.1 million hectares, or 61% of the projected area, according to the press service of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food.
The average yield for grains and legumes is 48.2 centners per hectare.
The harvest of wheat, barley, and peas has already been completed. A total of 26 million metric tons of wheat were harvested from 5.11 million hectares at an average yield of 50.8 centners per hectare; barley—6.6 million metric tons from 1.48 million hectares (44.6 tsentner per hectare), and peas—812,300 metric tons from 301,900 hectares (26.9 tsentner per hectare).
Corn harvests totaled 789,000 metric tons from 153,300 hectares at a yield of 51.5 centners per hectare; millet—75,400 metric tons from 32,800 hectares (23 centners per hectare); and buckwheat—44,700 metric tons from 34,700 hectares (13 centners per hectare).
The largest volumes of grains and legumes were harvested by farmers in the Odesa region—5.6 million metric tons, the Dnipropetrovsk region—2.76 million metric tons, and the Mykolaiv region—2.65 million metric tons.
At the same time, farmers harvested over 8.4 million metric tons of oilseeds. In particular, the rapeseed harvest is complete—3.87 million metric tons were harvested from 1.33 million hectares at a yield of 29.1 centners per hectare. Sunflower seeds yielded 3.36 million metric tons from 1.66 million hectares (20.3 centners per hectare), and soybeans yielded 1.22 million metric tons from 571,400 hectares (21.3 centners per hectare).
The sugar beet harvest is ongoing: 296,500 metric tons have been harvested from 5,800 hectares at an average yield of 511.2 centners per hectare.
Yevgen Osipov, CEO of the agricultural holding “Kernel,” anticipates—in a stress scenario—a 12-million-metric-ton decline in grain production in Ukraine next year due to a possible reduction in planted acreage by farmers, if no solution is found within the next six months to resume exports, according to a correspondent for the Interfax-Ukraine news agency.
“It is difficult to make such forecasts today. We hope that some solutions will be found in the next six months. If no practical solution is found, then, objectively speaking, the area under cultivation will be reduced. In such a stress scenario, we estimated this would result in a shortfall of 12 million metric tons of grain next year,” he said at the “Forbes Ukraine” Economic Resilience Forum in Kyiv on Wednesday.
According to Osipov, with seaports closed, Ukraine will be able to export only about 20 million metric tons of the 50 million metric tons of agricultural products needed—that is, 40% of the required volume—so companies are having to pivot to other business models.
“Based on our own experience with the most recent export corridors, about 50% of the operations were inefficient; we need to find new ways. Because right now, for businesses, it’s a matter of building a new business model. In other words, the old business model doesn’t work there anymore. That’s why, for our part, we’re focusing on processing and exporting processed products,” Osipov noted.
According to him, under its new business model, “Kernel” is focusing on exporting smaller volumes of products with higher added value, while retaining the ability to purchase oilseeds from Ukrainian farmers, pay them, and export processed products.
Osipov also added that, due to security and logistical constraints as well as external factors, it is currently not realistic to expect that the Danube ports will be able to handle the same volume of shipments that Ukraine had in 2022–2023.
As previously reported, in its September report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) raised its estimate for this year’s wheat production in Ukraine by 0.6 million metric tons compared to the August forecast—to 26 million metric tons—and its estimate for other grains (excluding wheat and corn) by 0.5 million metric tons, to 7.29 million metric tons, and maintained its corn production forecast at 31.8 million metric tons. Thus, the USDA estimates Ukraine’s total grain production this year at 65.09 million metric tons.
From September 1 to 21, 2026, Ukraine exported 1.6 million metric tons of agricultural products, which represents 43% of the volume that would have been exported had the logistics system been operating at full capacity, Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food Taras Vysotsky said at a briefing on Thursday.
He specified that 275,000 metric tons of oilseeds were shipped abroad, or 75% of the volume that would have been exported under normal logistics conditions; 190,000 metric tons of oil (55%); 173,000 metric tons of meal (41%); while grain exports totaled 960,000 metric tons (38%).
“We see that the share of grains (compared to potential volumes – IF-U) is the smallest, and, accordingly, the share of oilseeds, oil, and meal is larger. Therefore, yes, as of today, the priority remains on exporting value-added products,” Vysotsky said.
As reported, during the first 15 days of September, Ukraine exported 131,000 metric tons of oil, which accounted for 62% of the volume that would have been exported during this period if the ports had been operating freely.
As of September 21, Ukraine had exported 4.662 million metric tons of grains and legumes since the start of the 2026/27 marketing year (MY, July 2026 – June 2027), had exported 4.662 million metric tons of grains and legumes as of September 21, which is 22% less than the 5.979 million metric tons recorded as of September 24, 2025, according to the press service of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food.
At the same time, corn exports rose by 103.4%—to 1.841 million metric tons, compared to 905,000 metric tons as of September 24, 2025.
Wheat exports since the start of the 2026/27 marketing year totaled 2.337 million metric tons, a 43.9% decrease compared to 4.168 million metric tons as of September 24, 2025. Barley exports totaled 420,000 metric tons, down 46.9% from last year’s figure of 791,000 metric tons.
Wheat flour exports since the start of the 2026/27 marketing year totaled 6,800 metric tons, down 48.9% from 13,300 metric tons as of September 24, 2025. Exports of other types of flour remained at 0.6 thousand metric tons. Overall, flour exports fell by 46.8%—to 7.4 thousand metric tons, compared to 13.9 thousand metric tons as of September 24, 2025.
