Ukraine’s agricultural exports in August 2026 are expected to total approximately 1.33 million metric tons, which is 54% less than in July and could mark the lowest August figure since the full-scale war began, according to brokerage firm Spike Brokers.
“Expected August exports will be 68% lower than the average August export volume for 2022–2025—4.19 million metric tons—and 64% lower than the previous August low during the full-scale war—3.71 million metric tons in 2025,” the company noted.
According to the brokers, 641,900 metric tons of agricultural products were exported via all modes of transport in the first half of August, compared to 2.889 million metric tons for the entire month of July.
The share of maritime transport in total exports fell from 86.5% in July to 51.4% in the first 15 days of August, while the share of rail transport rose from 11.2% to 38.5%.
At the same time, the increase in the share of rail transport does not indicate a resumption of grain shipments: grain exports by rail fell by 68% compared to July and by 77% compared to the same period last year.
So far in August, 250,000 metric tons have been shipped by rail through western border crossings, which is 126% more than in the corresponding period of July, while shipments to the ports of Greater Odesa totaled only 53,200 metric tons—a decrease of 94.5%.
“The increase in land-based shipments offset only about 15% of the loss in seaport traffic; even when combined with the increase in exports via Izmail, the offset does not exceed 19%,” the report states.
The volume of grain railcars transported through western border crossings during the first 18 days of August increased 2.3-fold—to 160.6 railcars per day, compared to 71.3 railcars in July. The Romanian route had the highest volume—49.1 cars per day, followed by Poland—47.9 cars, Slovakia—34.8 cars, and Hungary—28.8 cars.
As of August 19, there were 9,524 thousand railcars en route to the border, which is 21% more than at the end of July; specifically, the number of grain railcars rose to 979 from 369.
The Izmail route is also increasing its shipments, but cannot compensate for the loss of maritime exports: grain exports via Izmail rose from 10 thousand to 38.8 thousand metric tons, while shipments to the ports of Greater Odesa fell by more than 0.9 million metric tons.
Poland needs new specialized terminals for transshipping Ukrainian grain, as existing storage capacity for large shipments is virtually exhausted, said Bartosz Penchkovsky, owner and CEO of the Polish logistics company Frontier Logistics.
“Right now, if we look across all of Poland, it effectively has no capacity to store large volumes of cargo—30,000 metric tons or more. All of this capacity is effectively occupied,” he said during the online discussion “Alternative Export Routes: Synergy Between Ukrainian and Polish Logistics Amid the Black Sea Blockade.”
According to him, in 2022–2023, Polish investors expanded the capacity of port and border terminals for transshipping Ukrainian cargo, which, in theory, could have facilitated the export of 6–8 million metric tons of goods per year. However, after the ports of Greater Odesa resumed operations in 2024–2025, a portion of Ukrainian cargo returned to the Black Sea ports, while Polish terminals shifted their focus to other types of cargo. In particular, Poland began receiving approximately 3–3.5 million metric tons of soybean meal from Latin America and other goods.
According to him, another “bottleneck” is access to specialized railcars for transporting grain.
Penchkovsky also noted that some border crossings have spare capacity, while others are overloaded.
He added that Poland’s logistics infrastructure has significant potential to increase the transshipment of Ukrainian agricultural products, provided there are investments in specialized terminals and more efficient use of existing border crossings.
From August 1 to 18, Ukraine exported 900,000 metric tons of agricultural products, which accounts for 31% of the volume that could have been exported had there been unimpeded access to logistics, said Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food Taras Vysotsky at a briefing in Kyiv on Thursday.
“The biggest drop was in grains. A total of 522,000 metric tons of grain were exported, which is only 20% of the required volume. Exports of oilseeds during this period totaled 163,000 metric tons, vegetable oil—128,000 metric tons, and meal—86,000 metric tons. In these sectors, export rates are in line with balance sheet figures,” Vysotsky noted.
According to him, alternative logistics routes can, in terms of volume, support the export of oilseeds and their processed products. As for grains, alternative routes can primarily be used to export products from border regions.
He added that due to changes in logistics, transportation costs have increased by approximately $50 per metric ton.
According to Vysotsky, exports of oilseeds and their processed products remain profitable, whereas for grains—with the exception of border regions—they are unprofitable.
Overall, via alternative routes from August 1 to 18, about 45% of agricultural products were exported via the Danube, 45% by rail, and another 7–8% by road.
As previously reported, according to data from the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, Ukraine exported 590,000 metric tons, or 30% of its needs, from August 1 to 12.
As of August 18, Ukrainian farmers had threshed 6.6 million hectares, or 56% of the projected area, and harvested over 30.8 million metric tons of grain from the new harvest, with an average yield of 46.8 centners per hectare, according to the press service of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food.
As of the same date in 2025, 6.18 million hectares had been threshed, the statement noted.
Wheat was threshed from 4,855.25 thousand hectares, yielding 23,822.36 thousand metric tons, with an average yield of 49.1 centners per hectare. Barley was threshed from 1,437.17 thousand hectares, yielding 6,239.99 thousand metric tons, with an average yield of 44 centners per hectare. Peas have been harvested from 295,66 thousand hectares, with 779,02 thousand metric tons collected and an average yield of 26.3 centners per hectare. Millet has been harvested from 1.2 thousand hectares, with 2.7 thousand metric tons collected and an average yield of 22.5 centners per hectare.
In terms of harvest volumes of early grain and legume crops, the Odesa, Kirovohrad, and Mykolaiv regions are currently leading.
In Odesa Oblast, 4,819.70 thousand metric tons were harvested from an area of 1,188.8 thousand hectares (wheat—3,223.30 thousand metric tons; barley—1,311.50 thousand metric tons; peas—284.90 thousand metric tons).
In the Kirovohrad region, 2,418.30 thousand metric tons were harvested from an area of 555.7 thousand hectares (wheat—1,923.80 thousand metric tons; barley—412.50 thousand metric tons; peas—82.0 thousand metric tons).
In the Mykolaiv region, 2,326,10 thousand metric tons were harvested from an area of 653.8 thousand hectares (wheat – 1,631,80 thousand metric tons, barley – 587.5 thousand metric tons, peas – 106.80 thousand metric tons).
The highest grain yields are currently being recorded in the Khmelnytskyi (69.9 centners per hectare), Sumy (59.8 centners per hectare), and Vinnytsia (59.5 centners per hectare) regions.
Rapeseed has already been threshed from 1,318.64 thousand hectares, yielding 3.7 million metric tons of seeds with an average yield of 28.5 centners per hectare.
As of August 14, 2026, Ukraine had exported 3.093 million metric tons of grains and legumes since the start of the 2026/27 marketing year (MY, July–June), which is 9.8% more than the 2.818 million metric tons exported by the same date last year.
According to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food, citing data from the State Customs Service, total exports of grains, legumes, and flour reached 3.097 million metric tons, compared to 2.826 million metric tons on the same date a year ago.
By crop type, wheat exports fell by 14.9%—to 1.291 million metric tons from 1.517 million metric tons, respectively; barley exports fell by 26.8%, to 339,000 metric tons from 463,000 metric tons, while corn exports rose by 69.6%—to 1.403 million metric tons from 827,000 metric tons a year earlier.
As was the case last year, no rye was exported.
In addition, wheat flour exports since the start of the 2026/27 marketing year have decreased by 48.3%, totaling 3,000 metric tons compared to 5,800 metric tons as of the same date last marketing year.
In total, as of August 14, Ukraine had exported 348,000 metric tons of grains and legumes, including 219,000 metric tons of wheat, 40,000 metric tons of barley, and 89,000 metric tons of corn.
From August 1–13, Ukraine exported 790,700 metric tons of agricultural products, compared to 1.849 million metric tons during the same period in July—a decrease of 57.2%, according to the brokerage firm Spike Brokers.
According to the firm, the value of exports fell by 37.3% to $478.8 million, compared to $763.8 million during the corresponding period in July.
“The main factor limiting August’s pace is concentrated in the grain segment. At the same time, the geography of logistics is changing: the flow through seaports is significantly lower than in July, while road crossings and western rail corridors are operating at a higher intensity,” the report notes.
From August 1–13, 130,100 metric tons of agricultural products were exported via road border crossings, compared to 119,500 metric tons during the corresponding 13 days in July—an increase of 8.9%. Exports via Hungary saw the largest increase—32.9%—followed by Slovakia (28%), Romania (14.1%), and Poland (3.7%). The flow through Moldova was close to July’s level, declining by approximately 1.9%.
At the same time, as of August 12, 435,800 metric tons of grain cargo had been transported by rail, which is 46.9% less than during the corresponding period in July and 52.1% less than in August 2025. The average daily load for the first 11 days of August was 31.3 thousand metric tons—38% lower than in July and 49% less than a year ago.
The export component of grain rail shipments fell by 72% compared to July, to 201.7 thousand metric tons. Of this volume, 63% passed through border crossings, and 29% went through the ports of Odesa. During the reporting period, only 75,200 metric tons of grain were transported through the ports of Odesa, compared to 656,400 metric tons during the corresponding period in July (-88.5%).
At the same time, the average daily throughput of grain railcars through western border crossings during the first 11 days of August rose to 139.6 railcars, compared to 71.3 railcars in July—an increase of 96%.
According to Spike Brokers, the main growth came from the Romanian and Polish routes—up to 44.7 and 44.4 railcars per day, respectively. Transit to Slovakia increased to 26.9 railcars per day, while transit to Hungary decreased to 23.6 railcars.
As of August 12, there were 8,718 thousand railcars at border crossings, compared to 7,858 thousand previously. In particular, the number of grain cars rose from 369 to 693, or by 87.8%.
Railway exports of vegetable oil totaled 41.5 thousand metric tons, which is 0.9% more than the corresponding July figure, with 89% of the volume passing through land border crossings.
Spike Brokers notes that the sea-rail corridor remains the weakest link in the current logistics chain. As of August 13, the average daily unloading rate bound for the ports of Greater Odesa had dropped to 146 railcars, while 262 grain cars were en route to the ports. There were 1.32 thousand grain cars heading toward the Danube ports.
