According to Serbian Economist, FAS/USDA forecasts corn production in Serbia for the 2025/2026 marketing year (beginning in October 2025) at 7.1 million tons, with a harvested area of 950,000 hectares.
Corn exports in the 2025/26 marketing year are estimated at 2.5 million tons, domestic consumption at 4.25 million tons, and ending stocks at 827,000 tons. The report notes that demand for Serbian corn on FOB terms from Danube ports is being held back by strong competition from Ukraine and Russia.
https://t.me/relocationrs/2622
Sunflower oil exports from Ukraine in the 2025/2026 marketing year (MY) are projected at 4.1 million tons. This is 14% less than the previous season’s figure, the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club (UAC) reported on Facebook.
According to analysts, the main reason for the decline was a reduction in raw material volumes. Specifically, in the current season, the total area planted with sunflowers was 5.2 million hectares, which is 2.6% less than in the previous MY. Difficult weather conditions, particularly a lack of rainfall, led to a decrease in yield to 2.0 t/ha.
“As a result, the seed harvest is expected to reach 10.1 million tons. This is 10.6% less than in the previous marketing year and 13.5% below the average for the last five years,” experts predict.
Due to the smaller harvest, UCAB estimates processing volumes at 10.1 million tons, meaning oil production will drop by 13.1% to 4.3 million tons. Meanwhile, the domestic market will consume only about 240,000 tons of the product.
“Domestic consumption in Ukraine continues to decline due to the partial occupation of territories, forced population migration, and military operations. Therefore, the vast majority of the product will be exported,” explained UCAB, noting that in 2025, sunflower oil alone generated the highest foreign exchange revenue among the entire agricultural sector.
The association expressed confidence that despite the negative production trends, Ukrainian sunflower oil retains its position as a key export commodity in the EU, Middle East, and Asian markets.
The gross grain harvest in Ukraine in the 2026-2027 marketing year (MY, July-June) is forecast at 58.7 million tons, which is 4% lower than the current season’s figures, according to the information and analytical agency APK-Inform.
According to analysts’ March estimates, the wheat harvest is expected to reach almost 20 million tons, which is 14% less than in the current season. Barley harvest may amount to 5.1 million tons (-5%), while corn production is forecast at 31.8 million tons, which is 3% higher than last year.
“This forecast is based on the reduction in the area sown with winter crops due to the drought in the fall and unfavorable weather conditions in February this year, which may lead to the partial destruction of winter crops in some regions, as well as a possible slight increase in the area sown with corn due to the replanting of winter crops amid high demand for this grain,” the agency explains.
At the same time, despite the expected decline in gross harvest, experts estimated the export potential of grains in 2026/27 MY at 42 million tons, which is 4% more than in 2025/26 MY. The growth in supplies to foreign markets will be facilitated by high carryover stocks from the current season, which may amount to 11.4 million tons, APK-Inform concluded.
In its January inflation report, the National Bank of Ukraine increased its estimate for the grain and legume harvest in 2025 to 63.5 million tons from 61.5 million tons in its October report, while lowering its estimate for the oilseed harvest to 18.6 million tons from 19.3 million tons.
“The estimate for the oilseed harvest in 2025 has been revised downward by 0.7 million tons due to a slightly lower-than-expected soybean harvest and the inability to harvest part of the sunflower crop due to unfavorable weather conditions and the complex security situation in the regions where the crop is grown,” the document says.
This is the second such revision of estimates by the NBU: in last year’s July inflation report, it expected a grain harvest of 57.9 million tons and oilseeds of 21.0 million tons. In 2024, their harvest amounted to 56.2 million tons and 21.3 million tons, respectively.
The National Bank specified, with reference to data from the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, that as of the end of 2025, 89% of corn and 95% of grain and legume crops had been harvested. At the same time, thanks to significantly higher corn yields, the total harvest of grains and legumes exceeded the previous year’s figure: according to preliminary data from the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food, by 7.4% or 3% when compared with the final data from the State Statistics Service.
As for the 2026 harvest, the NBU maintained its forecast for grains at 62.9 million tons and lowered its forecast for oilseeds from 21.4 million tons to 20.9 million tons.
“In 2026–2027, the production volumes of grains and legumes (62.9 million tons and 63.5 million tons, respectively) will remain close to the current level and will grow more significantly in 2028 (65.0 million tons). Oilseed production will grow moderately in 2026–2028 (to 22 million tons at the end of the forecast period) amid a gradual improvement in productivity in the industry, but it will be held back by climate change in the southern regions, exacerbated by the destruction of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant, as well as security risks,” according to the National Bank.
At the same time, the NBU continues to assume that livestock farming will continue to make a negative contribution to the added value of agriculture due to the expected reduction in livestock numbers and pressure from production costs. However, this contribution will be less than previously expected due to the growth of poultry farming and the active recovery of pig farming after significant losses in 2024, according to the Inflation Report.
Despite the increase in harvest in 2025 compared to 2024, according to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food, freight transportation for export in the fourth quarter of last year decreased by 23% y/y (compared to 34% y/y in the third quarter), primarily due to a further decline in maritime transport by 22% y/y (compared to 30% y/y in the third quarter).
As specified by the National Bank, rail transport decreased by 28% y/y (compared to 58% y/y in the third quarter), and road transport decreased by 42% y/y (compared to 53% y/y in the third quarter).
According to the State Statistics Service, the decline in freight turnover accelerated to 18% y/y on average in Q4 from 13% in Q3. Passenger turnover growth slowed to 0% y/y on average in Q4 (compared to an average growth of 7% in Q3).
Coffee prices fell on Thursday amid expectations of a high harvest in Brazil, the world’s largest coffee supplier.
Arabica futures fell 0.2% to $3.0785 per pound at the end of trading in New York yesterday. This is the lowest price in five months.
Brazil’s new coffee crop, which will begin harvesting in a couple of months, could reach a record 75.8 million bags, Reuters reports, citing a forecast by EISA. One bag weighs 60 kg.
EISA expects the Arabica coffee harvest to amount to 48 million bags and the Robusta harvest to amount to 27.8 million bags.
As of December 25, 2025, farmers harvested 57.597 million tons of grain and legumes from 10.55 million hectares, which is 94% of the area, as well as 17.4 million tons of oilseeds from 8.13 million hectares, which is 97.7% of the area they sowed.
According to operational information from the Ministry of Economy, Environment, and Agriculture on the progress of the harvest, 26.45 million tons of corn have been harvested from 3.84 million hectares, 22.96 million tons of wheat from 5.05 million hectares, 5.42 million tons of barley from 1.36 million hectares, 672,500 tons of peas from 275,100 hectares, and 82,700 tons of buckwheat from 10,000 hectares. 5.42 million tons from 1.36 million hectares, peas – 672,500 tons from 275,100 hectares, buckwheat – 82,700 tons from 59,400 hectares, millet – 62,100 tons from 35,800 hectares. The harvest of other cereals and legumes this year reached 934,100 tons from 331,100 hectares as of December 25.
As for oilseeds, as of December 25, the harvest amounted to 3.317 million tons of rapeseed harvested from 1.26 million hectares, 4.81 million tons of soybeans from 2.028 million hectares, and 9.227 million tons of sunflower from 4.838 million hectares.
This year, 10.989 million tons of sugar beets were harvested from 198,800 hectares.
The yield of agricultural crops in Ukraine in the 2025 season was wheat – 45.5 cwt/ha, barley – 39.8 cwt/ha, peas – 24.4 cwt/ha, 71.3 cwt/ha, buckwheat – 13.9 cwt/ha, millet – 17.4 cwt/ha, rapeseed – 26.3 cwt/ha, soybeans – 23.7 cwt/ha, sunflowers – 19.1 cwt/ha, sugar beets – 552.7 cwt/ha.
The Ministry of Economy stated that the largest gap between the actual and projected gross harvest in the grain and legume segment was demonstrated by corn – 87% of the plan, millet (88%), buckwheat (97%), wheat and barley (98%), and buckwheat (97%). Other grains and legumes were harvested at 85% of expectations.
Oil crops showed a higher percentage of fulfillment of the Ministry of Economy’s forecasts: rapeseed – 102%, soybeans – 98%, sunflowers – 93%.
The forecast for sugar beets turned out to be the most realistic – 100% of the plan.
As reported, the Ministry of Economy estimated the area under wheat in 2025 at 5.135 million hectares, a year earlier this figure was 4.884 million hectares (+5.1%), barley – 1.386 million hectares against 1.398 million hectares a year earlier (-0.1%), peas – 277.8 thousand hectares against 210.4 thousand hectares (+32%), corn – 4.399 million hectares against 4.070 million hectares (+8.1), buckwheat – 61.4 thousand hectares against 90.3 thousand hectares (-32%), millet – 40.5 thousand hectares against 92.6 thousand hectares (-56.3%), other cereals and legumes – 345.7 thousand hectares against 360.3 thousand hectares (-4.1%).
The production area under rapeseed in 2025 was 1.24 million hectares compared to 1.26 million hectares a year earlier (-1.6%), soybeans – 2.063 million hectares compared to 2.714 million hectares (-24%), sunflowers – 5.189 million hectares compared to 5.028 million hectares (+3.2%).
The area under sugar beets this year was reduced by 21.5% to 199 thousand hectares.
Ukrainian farmers finished harvesting on November 22, 2024. At that time, 98% of the planned harvest had been obtained.
