The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) expects that if active hostilities with the Russian occupiers continue until mid-2024, the harvest of grain and leguminous crops in the country will decrease (under a pessimistic scenario with a blockade of its ports) to 51.5 million tons in 2023 (- 40% compared to 2021), and up to 52.5 million tons in 2024 (-38.7%).
According to the NBU inflation report for October, the key factor in forecasting crop volumes will be the availability of crop exports from Ukrainian seaports.
Thus, under the scenario of the continuation of Russian aggression until mid-2023, it is expected that the total harvest of grains and legumes in 2023 will be 57 million tons, provided Ukraine has full access to agricultural exports through its Black Sea ports, and 51.5 million tons in the event of their blockade by Russia.
Similarly, if the war continues until mid-2024, Ukraine will be able to harvest in 2024 not 62 million tons of cereals and legumes, as in the case of free maritime exports, but only 52.2 million tons due to the blockade of its port infrastructure.
At the same time, the National Bank predicts the harvest of grain and leguminous crops in 2022 at the level of 52.5 million tons.
The bank recalled that in 2019 Ukraine harvested 75.1 million tons of grain and leguminous crops, in 2020 – 64.9 million tons, in 2021 – a record 85.7 million tons since independence.
As reported, by October 28, Ukrainian farmers had harvested 48.81 million tons of main crops from a total area of 13.13 million hectares, or 70% of the previously planned areas.
Ukraine in 2021 harvested a record harvest of grains, legumes and oilseeds of 106 million tons: grains and legumes – 84 million tons, oilseeds – 22.6 million tons.
Agroholding Continental Farmers Group has completed the harvest of winter barley, wheat and rapeseed from a total area of 86.2 thousand hectares, a total of 446 thousand tons of crops have been harvested, follows from its press release on Thursday.
It is specified that the yield indicators for this season exceeded the planned ones. The average yield of barley was 6.37 tons/ha, wheat – 6.23 tons/ha, rapeseed – 3.56 tons/ha.
“We have crossed the equator of this year’s harvest – the first wave has been completed with a good result. We are satisfied with the yield for all crops, because there were certain risks due to the dry spring. We ship the harvested products to our own elevators, which we prepared earlier. Given the favorable weather, the other day we started digging potatoes,” the agricultural holding quotes its COO Vitaliy Stavnichuk.
In addition, Continental has begun sowing winter crops for the 2023 harvest – sowing of rapeseed on an area of 35.2 thousand hectares is nearing completion. It is also planned to sow winter wheat on 42.3 thousand hectares, and barley on 16.1 thousand hectares.
“Due to the weather conditions during this sowing period, maximum emphasis is placed on moisture conservation. Production technologies are used depending on the type of seeders involved in the work. This is either classic cultivation with Horsch Tiger cultivators and sowing with Horsch Pronto seeders, or conditional direct sowing, carried out immediately after harvesting wheat and barley with Horsch Focus and Claydon Hybrid 6T seeders,” the agricultural holding said in a press release.
“Continental Farmers Group” grows potato chips, seed and food varieties in Lviv and Ternopil regions. The total area under potatoes in 2020 amounted to 1.6 thousand hectares, in 2021 – 1.8 thousand hectares, with a total land bank of the group of companies of 195 thousand hectares in the western regions of Ukraine.
Agroholding Mriya and CFG, united under the name Continental Farmers Group, have been operating as a single business since November 2018, when Mriya entered into a deal with international investor Salic UK to sell assets.
Salic was founded in 2012. Its sole shareholder is the State Investment Fund of Saudi Arabia. Invests in the production of agricultural and livestock products.
The Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) has reduced the forecast for the harvest of grain and oilseeds in Ukraine in 2022 by 7.1% compared to the July forecast – to 64.5 million tons from 69.4 million tons, according to the UGA website .
This change in forecasts was caused by a 5.8% reduction in sown areas under these crops to 18.0 million hectares from 19.1 million hectares due to the consequences of Russian aggression in Ukraine.
“Despite the stubbornness and courage of Ukrainian farmers, there are objective obstacles to harvesting in mined, occupied areas and destroyed crops,” the UGA statement says.
According to her, the total export of grain and oilseeds from Ukraine in the 2022/2023 marketing year (MY, July-June) can reach 32.8 million tons (in the July forecast – 31.5 million tons), provided that sea grain corridors are maintained and further expanding the capacity of border crossings on the western borders of Ukraine. At the same time, the transitional balances of agricultural products in the country at the beginning of MY 2022/2023 amounted to 26 million tons of grain and oilseeds, and by the end of the MY they are expected to increase to 30.5 million tons.
“In general, the export of grains and oilseeds in 2022/2023 MY can be expected at the indicated level if the Ukrainian Black Sea ports for export remain open. Export of grain through Ukrainian ports and ensuring the safety of navigation in the Black Sea is the only way to quickly and efficiently supply Ukrainian grain to countries who are in dire need of it,” the organization said in a statement.
According to UGA forecasts, in 2022, a wheat harvest is expected at the level of 19 million tons (-8.6% compared to the July forecast of the organization); 24 million tons of corn (-12.1%); 5.4 million tons of barley (-18%); 9 million tons of sunflower (forecast kept); 2.2 million tons of soybeans (forecast kept); 3 million tons of rapeseed (2 times increase).
In the August forecast, the Association retained its export forecasts compared to July – for example, wheat exports in 2022/2023 MY are expected to be at the level of 10 million tons, corn – 10 million tons, barley – 2 million tons, sunflower – 6 million tons, soybeans – 1 .8 million tons. However, rapeseed exports will double to 2.8 million tons.
As reported with reference to the data of the State Statistics Service, in 2021 Ukraine harvested a record harvest of grain and leguminous crops in the amount of 85.7 million tons, which is 32% more than in 2020. In total, 32.07 million tons of wheat (+28.9%), 41.87 million tons of corn (+38.2%) and 9.42 million tons of barley (+23.3%) were harvested.
Ukraine in 2021 also harvested 16.38 million tons of sunflower (+25% compared to 2020), 10.8 million tons of sugar beet (+18.1%), 3.5 million tons of soybeans (+24.4%), 2.92 million tons of rapeseed and 42 thousand tons of oilseed flax (an increase of 3.7 times).
The Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) is an association of producers, processors and large grain exporters who annually export about 90% of Ukrainian grain products.
In its August report, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) increased the forecast for the harvest of Ukrainian corn in 2022/2023 marketing year (MY, July-June) compared to July by 5 million tons – up to 30 million tons from 25 million tons, and its export estimate has been raised by 3.5 million tons to 12.5 million tons from 9 million tons.
According to a report on the website of the US Department of Agriculture, the estimate of domestic corn consumption in Ukraine has been increased by 1 million tons – from 9.5 million tons to 10.5 million tons.
In the new forecast, the agency also increased the forecast for wheat exports from Ukraine in 2022/2023 MY by 1 million tons – up to 11 million tons from 10 million tons, while the assessment of its harvest remained at the same level – 19.5 million tons. At the same time, the forecast for its domestic consumption in Ukraine was also left at the same level of 10.2 million tons.
In addition, the forecast for carry-over stocks of wheat at the end of the current marketing year has been reduced – from 5.24 million tons to 4.24 million tons compared to 5.84 million tons at its beginning.
According to the report, in general, the forecast for the feed grain harvest in Ukraine for 2022/23 MY was increased by 5.7 million tons – up to 37.46 million tons from 31.76 million tons, and its export – by 3.5 million tons, up to 14 .33 million tons from 10.83 million tons.
As reported, since the beginning of MY 2022/2023, Ukraine has exported 2.21 million tons of grain and leguminous crops, which is 2.1 times less than in the previous MY. The country supplied to foreign markets 1.45 million tons of corn (26.1% more than in 2021/2022 MY), 562 thousand tons of wheat (3.2 times less), 192 thousand tons of barley (8.4 times less) and 5.1 thousand tons of flour (3.2 times less).
The forecast for the harvest of grain and oilseeds in Ukraine this season has been improved by approximately 5-7 million tons – up to 65-67 million tons from 60 million tons, according to the website of the government portal on Wednesday.
It is specified that the increase in the harvest forecast was announced by the Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food Mykola Solsky during a conference call between Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal and the heads of regions.
In turn, the Prime Minister noted that in the context of the Russian military invasion in Ukraine, 12 million tons of new crop grain have already been harvested from a total area of 3.5 million hectares.
Shmyhal also announced the emergence of additional opportunities for grain exports due to the unblocking of the Odessa seaport under the Istanbul Agreement on the export of agricultural products from Ukraine, concluded on July 22 under the auspices of the UN.
“In total, in June we exported 3.2 million tons out of 5 million tons (pre-war monthly volumes – IF-U) that were required. Exports are gradually growing both by rail, by road, and through the Danube ports. Sea ports will significantly expand these opportunities and farmers will receive new opportunities for the sale of products. The state is doing everything necessary for this,” the Prime Minister’s government portal quotes.
Shmygal also noted the recently introduced grant program for the development of horticulture, greenhouses, the development of processing and micro-enterprises, under which over 5,000 applications have already been submitted and processed, and this week the first applicants will receive state support.
As reported, the US Department of Agriculture in the July report predicts the harvest of Ukrainian wheat in the 2022/2023 marketing year (MY, July-June) at the level of 19.5 million tons, its export – 10 million tons, domestic consumption within the country – 10.2 million tons . The corn harvest is estimated at 25 million tons, export – 9 million tons, domestic consumption – 10.7 million tons.
In early July, the Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) increased the forecast for the harvest of grains and oilseeds in Ukraine in 2022 by 4.4% compared to the May forecast, to 69.4 million tons from 66.5 million tons.
According to her forecasts, in 2022 the wheat harvest is expected at the level of 20.8 million tons (+8.3% to the organization’s May forecast); 27.3 million tons of corn (+4.6%); 6.6 million tons of barley (forecast kept); 9 million tons of sunflower (forecast kept); 2.2 million tons of soybeans (+4.7%); 1.5 million tons of rapeseed (+13.3%).
Ukraine plans to harvest up to 20 million tons of wheat, which is five times more than domestic demand, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said.
“Yesterday, the first ship with Ukrainian food left the port of Odessa… Firstly, this makes it possible to increase foreign exchange earnings and business income. Not only in the agricultural sector, which employs hundreds of thousands of people, but also in related industries. The second aspect: Ukraine remains important player in the global food market,” he said at a government meeting on Tuesday.
The prime minister stressed that the unblocking of exports is also directly related to the new crop, which is now being harvested by Ukrainian farmers.
“As of the end of July, about 12 million tons have already been harvested. At the same time, we expect to harvest up to 20 million tons of wheat alone, which is five times more than domestic demand. Therefore, it is important for us to help farmers preserve and sell the new crop,” Shmyhal summed up.
