The European Commission (EC) put forward on Friday a proposal for the recommendation of the EU Council on the conversion of hryvnia banknotes into the currency of the member states hosting Ukrainian refugees. “This proposal complements the humanitarian assistance provided by the EU to those who flee Ukraine, in particular when they move through the territory of the union, and it is fully consistent with EU law on asylum and foreign policy,” the EC communique published in Brussels reads. The document says that since the beginning of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, more than 3.8 million people have arrived in the European Union fleeing the fighting. One of the urgent needs of refugees is the conversion of their hryvnia banknotes into the currency of the host country. “Today’s proposal aims to promote a coordinated approach for all Member States to offer those fleeing Ukraine the same conditions for converting their hryvnia banknotes into local currency, regardless of the Member State they are in,” the statement said. European Commission. Brussels explains that this approach was necessary due to the fact that the National Bank of Ukraine was forced to suspend the exchange of hryvnia banknotes for foreign cash in order to protect Ukraine’s limited foreign exchange reserves. As a consequence, credit institutions in the EU Member States are reluctant to make the exchange due to the limited convertibility of hryvnia banknotes. Some EU Member States are considering introducing national schemes that support the conversion of a limited amount of hryvnia per person, and the aim of the Commission, as the communiqué suggests, is to consistently promote such schemes. These schemes should include a maximum limit of UAH 10,000 per person, and the duration of such schemes should be at least three months.
The hryvnia exchange rate on the interbank FX currency market weakened to UAH 28.005/$1 on Friday from UAH 27.860/$1 on the previous business day, dealers of commercial banks has told Interfax-Ukraine.
According to them, the quotes of the national currency at the close of trading amounted to UAH 27.995-UAH 28.015/$1.
According to the data of the National Bank of Ukraine, the hryvnia reference rate on the interbank FX market weakened to UAH 27.94/$1 on Friday from UAH 27.70/$1 on Thursday.
At the same time, the regulator weakened the exchange rate of the national currency for January 17 to UAH 27.9514/$1 from UAH 27.7372/$1 the day before.
Analysts at Bank of America (BofA) Global Research do not expect further nominal strengthening of the hryvnia, according to a June 14 BofA study.
The bank said that it is still constructive in relation to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), but the bank does not expect further nominal strengthening of the hryvnia, especially given the seasonality of the exchange rate in the third quarter, BofA said.
Ukrainian business has worsened expectations regarding a slowdown in inflation over the next 12 months to 7% from 5.1% in the middle of the year and the weakening of the hryvnia exchange rate to UAH 28.28/$1 from UAH 26.01/$1.
According to the results of a regular quarterly survey of business expectations of enterprises, conducted by the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) from May 4 to June 4 this year, businesses more restrainedly expected an increase in production of goods and services in Ukraine in the next 12 months. Thus, almost 34.1% (10.4% a quarter earlier) of respondents expected a decrease in this indicator.
According to the survey, the business activity of Ukrainian enterprises decreased to the lowest index of business expectations since 2015 for the next 12 months, to 90.8% from 110.5% a quarter earlier.
It is noted that a decline in business activity is expected by enterprises of all types and areas of activity.
The poll shows that most companies do not expect changes in their financial and economic situation in the next 12 months, 22% of companies expect deterioration. The regulator noted that representatives of small and medium-sized businesses have more pessimistic assessments.
According to the report, the business expects a decrease in the total volume of sales of products, including in the external market. In general, growth in this indicator is predicted only by respondents from processing industry and trade, and the lowest estimates are in construction and mining enterprises.
According to the survey, for the third quarter in a row, the share of companies that predict a decrease in the number of employees at their enterprises has increased. In particular, the share of enterprises planning to cut staff in the next 12 months increased to 26.3% from 21% a quarter earlier. The respondents are pessimistic in all types of economic activity, except for construction, where the number of employees is predicted to remain unchanged.
At the same time, the number of companies planning to raise wages for their employees has significantly decreased over the next 12 months, to 36.5% from 63.4%.
The total government debt of Ukraine in March 2020 decreased by 3.62% in dollar terms, to $80.38 billion, and in the hryvnia it increased by 10.15% and amounted to UAH 2.255 trillion, the Ministry of Finance has reported. According to the Ministry of Finance, direct public debt in March this year in dollar terms decreased by 3.71%, to $70.87 billion, while in hryvnias it grew by 9.98%, to UAH 1.988 trillion. In particular, external direct debt in March decreased by 0.4%, to $40.34 billion.
State-guaranteed debt last month increased by 11.33%, to UAH 266.7 billion, in dollars decreased by 2.96%, to $9.51 billion. In particular, external debt fell by 11.23%, to UAH 255.83 billion, in dollars it external guaranteed debt decreased by 2.98%, to $9.12 billion.
Since the beginning of the year, the total public debt decreased by almost 4% in dollar terms and increased by 8.4% in hryvnias, according to the ministry.
As reported, the total and state debt of Ukraine in February decreased due to the weakening of the hryvnia by 1.46% in hryvnias and by 0.02% in dollar terms.
Вefore the introduction of quarantine due to the spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) Ukrainian business improved its expectations regarding the slowdown in inflation in the next 12 months to 5.1% from 7% early this year and the strengthening of the hryvnia to UAH 26.01/$1 from UAH 27.43/$1.
According to the quarterly business outlook survey conducted by the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) from February 4 through March 4, 2020, business was more restrained in expecting growth in production of goods and services in Ukraine in the next 12 months. Thus, almost 30.8% (37.6% a quarter earlier) of respondents expected an increase in this indicator, another 48.7% (45.5%) believed that they would remain at the same level.
According to the survey, business activity of Ukrainian enterprises decreased to a moderate level amid a reduction in the Business Outlook Index (BOI) for the next 12 months to 110.5% from 112% a quarter earlier.
The decrease in BOI was insignificant due to high business estimates for the total sales of own-produced products, investment costs for machinery, equipment and inventory, as well as the financial and economic condition of enterprises.
According to the survey, the share of companies expecting improvement in their financial and economic condition over the next 12 months fell to 27.6% from 28% the previous quarter, while those forecasting deterioration increased to 10.8% from about 10%. The regulator said that all surveyed enterprises, except for the water supply sector, had optimistic forecasts, and the mining industry had the most optimistic forecasts.
