The updated macro-forecast of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) assumes receiving $2 billion from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) under the Extended Fund Facility, deputy governor of the NBU Dmytro Sologub has said at a press conference in Kyiv.
“We expect that in the fourth quarter the new program is likely to start with the IMF, and Ukraine will receive $2 billion. And we also expect $2 billion in each of the next years as part of the new structural financing program,” he said.
Sologub stressed that such an assessment is an expert commentary. According to him, if the funds arrive a little earlier or a little later, it will not have a significant impact on other macroeconomic parameters, except for international reserves.
The banker also estimated, based on the example of other countries and the size of Ukraine’s quota in the IMF, that the size of the new program could be in the range of $5-10 billion for a period of 36 to 48 months.
“We have no insight, this is our expert assessment,” he said.
Sologub also said that the National Bank laid down in its forecast another entry of Ukraine to foreign markets with eurobonds in the amount of about $1 billion as its expert assessment.
Ukraine could receive a tranche under the Stand-By Arrangement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in June, First Deputy Governor of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) Kateryna Rozhkova has reported. “Most likely, in June Ukraine may receive a tranche, because if they the IMF mission come in May, they simply won’t be able technically to provide the tranche in May,” she said in an interview with the LB.ua online portal. According to Rozhkova, the first unexpected and unpleasant surprise for the IMF was the cancellation of the article on illegal enrichment in Ukraine, the second one was the situation with the court rulings on PrivatBank.
“Of course, we’ve informed them about the events and that first we need to get the decisions of courts and only after that we will be able to comment on some legal position, the arguments of the courts … As you know, the IMF makes its decisions at a meeting of the executive board. The mission comes to the board, reports on the trip, on the results of the borrower’s work. What will they say this time: look, they reverse the reform?” she said.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) counts on continuation of cooperation of Ukraine with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) after the expiration of the currency Stand-By Arrangement (SBA), according to an inflation report for January 2019 posted on the website of the central bank.
The document, in particular, has the key assumptions for the macroeconomic forecast of the NBU for 2019-2021, including payments to the public sector from donors in 2019-2021 ($6.5 billion from the IMF, $1.6 billion each from the EU and the World Bank), along with the placement of government external loan bonds for $8.5 billion, will allow refinancing most of the payments on external obligations.
As reported, the IMF Executive Board, following a meeting on December 19, 2018, approved a new program of cooperation with Ukraine under the stand-by arrangement. The amount of the 14-month program is equivalent to SDR 2.8 billion, or about $3.9 billion. Some SDR 1 billion (about $1.4 billion) was provided immediately, while the remaining funds will be provided based on the results of the program reviews in May and September 2019. The NBU thus plans to raise some $4 billion from the IMF in 2020-2021.
In addition, at the end of January 2019, the NBU said that it had laid out macroeconomic forecasts for the country to place eurobonds worth $2 billion in 2019. Thus, the National Bank expects an increase in sovereign eurobonds in subsequent years to more than $3 billion.
As reported, Ukraine in October 2018 placed two tranches of eurobonds: $750 million five-year bonds and $1.25 billion 10-year bonds.
The yield on the five-year bonds was 9% per annum, and for the 10-year bonds it is 9.75%.
BNP Paribas, Citi, Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan acted as organizers of the issue.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) Resident Representative in Ukraine Goesta Ljungman has reported on the upcoming visit to Kyiv of experts of the fund to discuss the 2019 draft budget, the adoption of which is a condition for providing Ukraine with funding for the new stand by program. According to Ljungman, the experts will stay in Ukraine on November 4-9.
The amount of the first tranche under the new Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) could be $1.5-1.9 billion, First Deputy Governor of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) Kateryna Rozhkova has said. “We recently had a monetary briefing where the NBU Governor Yakiv Smolii said that the tranche could be received by the end of this year. As for the sum [of the first tranche], I think that it would be some $1.5-1.9 billion,” she told reporters at the BEPSinUA forum in Kyiv on Thursday.
As reported, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff and Ukraine have reached an agreement on economic policies for a new 14-month Stand-By Arrangement (SBA), which will replace the arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF), approved in March 2015 and set to expire in March 2019.
The agreement is subject to approval by the fund’s management and approval by its board of directors. The board’s meeting is expected to take place at the end of the year after the Verkhovna Rada adopts the national budget for 2019 in accordance with the recommendations of the IMF and the increase in gas and heating tariffs for households, reflecting market trends while maintaining support for low-income consumers.
Governor of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) Yakiv Smolii does not rule out that a first tranche under the new Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) could arrive this year. “For the time being we cannot talk about exact deadlines, since the decision will be made by the IMF board. We expect it to take place in December, and we can expect to receive a tranche this year,” he said at a monetary briefing in Kyiv.
As reported, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff and Ukraine have reached an agreement on economic policies for a new 14-month Stand-By Arrangement (SBA), which will replace the arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF), approved in March 2015 and set to expire in March 2019.
The agreement is subject to approval by the fund’s management and approval by its board of directors. The board’s meeting is expected to take place at the end of the year after the Verkhovna Rada adopts the national budget for 2019 in accordance with the recommendations of the IMF and the increase in gas and heating tariffs for households, reflecting market trends while maintaining support for low-income consumers.
