The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) forecasts that gas imports will rise to $2.9 billion in 2025 due to Russia’s destruction of gas infrastructure, which will be partially financed by international partners.
“In the forecast period, production will gradually recover, but it will be insufficient to fully cover the domestic needs of the economy, including industry, housing and communal services, and households,” the National Bank said in its Inflation Report for April 2025.
The regulator expects gas procurement needs to gradually decline in 2026 to about $1.1 billion and fall to $0.4 billion in 2027.
“The continuing electricity deficit and losses in the gas production industry will hamper GDP recovery over the forecast horizon and increase the dependence of the energy and industrial sectors of the economy on imports, which will generate corresponding price risks that may be passed on to consumer prices,” the NBU added.
It is noted that significant risks of further destruction of energy infrastructure remain, and their realization could further dampen GDP growth and increase inflationary pressures. At the same time, the possibility of a faster recovery of the electricity or gas infrastructure or the introduction of new capacities remains a positive factor for the forecast.
As reported, during three years of full-scale invasion, Russia has carried out more than 30 massive complex attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure facilities, causing billions of dollars in damage.
According to the former head of the Ukrainian Gas Transmission System Operator (OGTSU), Serhiy Makogon, given the volume of its own production, Ukraine will need to import 5.5-6.3 billion cubic meters of gas by the start of the heating season on November 1, 2025, which will require approximately $2.5-3 billion. According to his estimates, by the start of the next heating season, it is necessary to have at least 9 billion cubic meters of reserves (excluding buffer gas) in underground gas storage facilities, as this year’s experience has shown that starting the season with lower reserves is extremely risky, since by the end of the season reserves fell to approximately 0.68 billion cubic meters.
In turn, Dmitry Abramovich, a member of the board and commercial director of the Naftogaz group, said at the end of March that Ukraine needs to import 4.5-4.6 billion cubic meters of natural gas by November 1 this year.
Since the beginning of this year, Naftogaz has contracted 1.5 billion cubic meters of gas: 800 million cubic meters were urgently imported at the beginning of the year, 400 million cubic meters will arrive in the country in preparation for next winter, and another 300 million cubic meters of LNG were purchased by Naftogaz from Poland’s ORLEN. The company is also negotiating with the government and international financial institutions to attract EUR 1 billion in financing to purchase more than 2 billion cubic meters of gas.
According to Makogon, guaranteed gas import capacity is approximately 50 million cubic meters per day, so it will take three months to import 4.6 billion cubic meters of gas and four months to import 5.6-6.3 billion cubic meters, assuming 100% capacity utilization, which is commercially difficult to achieve.
Thus, he believes that in order to import the necessary volumes by November 1, it is necessary to start importing significant volumes of gas as early as May.
The total amount of direct damage to Ukraine’s infrastructure as a result of Russia’s full-scale invasion reached almost $170 billion as of November 2024, which is $12.6 billion more than at the beginning of 2024, the press service of the Kyiv School of Economics (KSE) reports.
According to analysts from KSE, the Ministry of Community and Territorial Development, and the Ministry of Economy, the housing stock, transport infrastructure, and energy sector suffered the greatest losses.
The housing sector remains the most affected, with direct losses estimated at $60 billion. As of November 2024, 236,000 residential buildings were damaged or destroyed, of which 209,000 were private houses, 27,000 were apartment buildings, and another 600 were dormitories. In regional terms, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Luhansk, Kyiv, Chernihiv, and Kherson regions suffered the most damage, the study says.
Analysts estimate the losses of transport infrastructure at $38.5 billion. At the same time, more than 26 thousand kilometers of highways were damaged and destroyed, which is estimated at $28.3 billion. The losses of railroad transport amounted to $4.3 billion, port infrastructure – $0.85 billion, and the aviation industry – $2 billion. Direct losses to private passenger vehicles are estimated at $2.2 billion, with 260,000 cars destroyed or damaged.
Ukraine’s energy sector lost $14.6 billion. The attacks completely destroyed the Kakhovka and Dnipro hydroelectric power plants, Trypillia and Zmiiv thermal power plants, damaged or destroyed significant other generating facilities, as well as high-voltage substations and oil and gas infrastructure.
According to experts, the industry, construction, and service sectors suffered losses of $14.4 billion. Companies lost equipment, production facilities, and logistics capacities. As of November 2024, almost five hundred large and medium-sized private and state-owned enterprises were destroyed or seriously damaged.
The KSE estimated the losses of the agricultural sector at $10.3 billion. More than 130,000 units of agricultural machinery were lost, 4 million tons of grain storage facilities and 16,000 hectares of perennial crops were destroyed or damaged. The forestry fund also suffered significant losses: 298 thousand hectares of forests were damaged due to hostilities and fires, with losses estimated at $4.5 billion.
Losses to educational infrastructure are estimated at $7.3 billion. Over 4,000 educational institutions, including 229 schools, 110 kindergartens, and 97 universities, were damaged or destroyed during the full-scale invasion.
The healthcare sector lost $4.3 billion. Hospitals, clinics and other medical facilities were hit. A total of 1,554 medical facilities were damaged, including 515 hospitals and 465 outpatient clinics.
Cultural heritage, sports and tourist facilities were damaged to the tune of $4 billion. 3,921 cultural facilities, 399 religious buildings, and 343 sports complexes were damaged.
The housing and utilities sector lost $3.5 billion. 925 boiler houses, 214 central heating stations, and more than 354 kilometers of heating networks were severely damaged.
The digital infrastructure and telecommunications sector suffered direct losses of $1.2 billion. Internet networks, mobile radio networks and trunk communication lines were damaged. In the de-occupied territories, the destruction of networks sometimes reached 100%, and thousands of mobile base stations were destroyed, analysts summarized.
The international corporation NEFCO (Nordic Environment Finance Corporation) is launching a EUR 7.2 million project to reconstruct the water supply system in Mykolaiv’s Korabelnyi district with funding from the Danish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the NEFCO press service reports.
NEFCO and the city administration of Mykolaiv have signed a new grant agreement for the reconstruction of the water supply system in the Korabelnyi district, which has been selected as a pilot. A total of EUR 7.2 million has been allocated for the project, as well as technical assistance through the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Denmark.
As reported, Mykolaiv’s water supply system has been out of service for almost 2.5 years after the destruction of the main water supply system in April 2022. Residents of Mykolaiv depend on emergency water supply, which is provided mainly by trucks and supplemented by desalination of salt water from the Dnipro-Bug estuary, as well as newly drilled wells. Many citizens are forced to take water for their daily needs from centralized emergency water supply points.
The densely populated Korabelnyi district of Mykolaiv, where water leakage reaches 40%, was chosen to implement a demonstration project to restore and reconstruct the entire water supply system. The goal of this project is to reduce water losses and increase the energy efficiency of water distribution processes by identifying water leaks, improving water supply efficiency, and creating a sustainable basis for further development of the freshwater system in Mykolaiv. New wells will be installed and pipes will be replaced.
Earlier, in an interview with Interfax-Ukraine, Mykolaiv Mayor Oleksandr Senkevych said that a feasibility study had already been developed with the French company Egis to provide water supply for the entire city, the first of three phases of implementation could cost about EUR130 million, and the city was looking for sources of funding – “both public funds and donor funds.” And as an example, he cited a grant allocated by Denmark in the spring of 2024 – up to DKK 40 million (approximately EUR 5.36 million) through the Danida Sustainable Infrastructure Finance (DSIF) program.
This project is also being implemented in the Korabelnyi district, and involves the replacement of about 11 km of pipes, which is about 8% of the total length of the network in the district; installation of 55 main meters with remote data collection in multi-storey buildings; and replacement of pumps at three water pumping stations. The project is currently in the procurement phase, with the tender expected to be announced in September.
We understand that the issue of security in residential complexes, including social infrastructure, requires a comprehensive approach.
That is why in our projects we apply a three-level security system, namely: personal security (closed area, access control system, video surveillance and security), energy security (enhanced means of automation of engineering communications, use of alternative energy sources (if necessary), as well as design of geothermal pumps for apartment construction, which reduces heating consumption by at least 40% and energy consumption by about 35 kWh per square meter), and social security,” says the company. This, as the practice of already inhabited houses shows, removes a lot of domestic issues and cohabitation on the territory.
Social facilities are not isolated in time and space point developments (schools, kindergartens, development centers, community centers), but part of our living ecosystem. Therefore, they are fully designed according to our approaches and values: well-thought-out ergonomics of living space, high level of energy efficiency (achieved, for example, through double-glazed windows with a new generation of high-quality glass with magnetron sputtering, which allows sunlight to penetrate into the room while not letting the sun’s heat through, durable heat-resistant mineral wool from the global brand Rockwool, which provides an optimal internal microclimate without interfering with the natural diffusion of excess water vapor and demonstrating high thermal insulation properties), aesthetics and service of the highest level.
Currently, our portfolio of large social facilities includes kindergartens and schools at various stages of implementation, and we already know the operators – KMDS (Lucky Land residential complex) and an elementary school in the Park Lake City multifunctional cluster (British International School in Ukraine), a community center for neighbors in Park Lake City with a restaurant and several attraction areas, where everyone will find something for everyone. A bilingual kindergarten will also be located in Park Lake City. It will be a two-storey institution with an area of almost 3 thousand square meters, designed for 180 children aged 3 to 5 years.
In total, we will have 6 kindergartens in Lucky Land, so we have enough work to do. We plan to implement everything gradually with the construction of new houses in order to organically meet the demand of young parents for a high-quality, safe and comfortable space for their children to grow up.
Daria Bedia, Marketing Director at DIM
Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani has announced that the Italian Republic is ready to send a new package of military aid with enhanced air defense for Ukraine and has agreed on a new package worth 140 million euros for the development of Ukrainian infrastructure.
“I completely agree with Dmytro (Kuleba – IF-U) when he says that the primary strategy for recovery, for reconstruction is to protect Ukrainian infrastructure, Ukrainian buildings with the help of air defense. And that’s why I want to inform you that Italy is ready to send a new military package with SAMP/T for the air defense of Ukraine,” he said at the panel session ”United in Defense. United in Renewal. Stronger Together” on the sidelines of the Ukraine Recovery Conference in Berlin on Tuesday.
The minister also emphasized that Italy is ready not only to provide military assistance to Ukraine, but also to provide support in other various sectors.
“There is a second piece of news. A new package of 140 million euros for infrastructure, railways, healthcare, agri-food, humanitarian and demining activities. This is a new, latest decision of the Italian government,” Tayani said.
He also reminded about the allocation of 45 million euros for the restoration of the historic center of Odesa.
“Today we signed a memorandum with the Ukrainian government on our cooperation in these very important sectors. Also, the cultural level, I want to emphasize this point, because it is important for Italy to support the reconstruction of the cathedral (in Odesa – IF-U). It is part of UNESCO,” he said.
The Italian Foreign Minister added that “cultural heritage is very important because Ukraine is part of Europe.”
In addition, the minister emphasized that Italy is ready to invest in Ukraine.
“Count on us, count on Italy,” Tajani said.
The USAID Health Reform Support (HRS) Project has launched two projects to restore medical infrastructure in 45 communities in Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.
According to the Ministry of Health, the project partners will be KBS Start LLC in Kharkiv Oblast and the Alliance for Public Health in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
The projects will be implemented by December 2024.
In addition, within the framework of the project “Restoring Public Access to Health Care”, it is planned to cooperate with 36 primary health care centers.
