The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has raised the country’s international reserves forecast for the end of 2023 to $34.5 billion from $27 billion in its January forecast.
“In total, receipts from international partners may exceed $42 billion this year. Receipts from partners, in particular, will boost international reserves to more than $35 billion at the end of this year,” NBU Governor Andriy Pyshny said Thursday, presenting the updated macro forecast.
The National Bank expects reserves to reach $36.1 billion at the end of 2024, while previously it had expected $31 billion.
According to the updated forecast, the estimate of the current account deficit is improved this year to $13.5 billion from $20.4 billion, but worsened next year to $10.6 billion from $8.4 billion, while last year its surplus was $8 billion.
The NBU points out that the persistence of a significant current account deficit in 2023, in particular due to increased imports amid a gradual recovery of domestic demand, the costs of a significant number of forced Ukrainian migrants abroad and still restrained exports as a result of declining harvests and limited logistics routes. At the same time, the arrival of international aid will offset these factors, the regulator added.
“The net inflow of currency to Ukraine remains due to significant volumes of international aid. This will strengthen the NBU’s ability to further maintain exchange rate stability and gradually ease currency restrictions,” the NBU noted.
The receipt of $2.7bn of the first tranche of the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) extended EFF loan has boosted Ukraine’s international reserves to more than $32bn, First Deputy NBU Governor Yekaterina Rozhkova has said.
“Taking into account these funds, the amount of assistance received from our partners since the beginning of the year reached $13.6 billion, and international reserves of the National Bank of Ukraine exceeded $32 billion,” she wrote on Facebook.
As it was reported, the volume of interventions of the National Bank in March decreased to $1.67 billion from $2.43 billion in February and $3.08 billion and $3.16 billion in January and December.
Due to lower currency receipts from international partners and simultaneous growth of payments on foreign currency debts, Ukraine’s international reserves in February decreased by 3.5%, or $1.064 billion to $28.865 billion, but remained above the level of the beginning of the year at $28.494 billion.
Ukraine’s international reserves as of January 1, 2023, according to preliminary data, amounted to $28.491 billion, an increase of 1.9%, or $536.4 million, compared to November 2022, thanks to currency inflows from international partners that exceeded NBU interventions to sell currency to support the fixed exchange rate.
According to the NBU on its website on Friday evening, they decreased by 7.9%, or $2.45 billion, for the year as a whole.
The National Bank specified that net international reserves in December increased by 3.3%, or $579 million – to $18.318 billion, but for the year they decreased by 11.8%, or $2.45 billion.
According to the regulator, in December, the dynamics of international reserves was affected by the state debt management operations. In particular, currency receipts to the accounts of the Ukrainian government in the NBU amounted to $4.468 billion in December, including $598.7 million from the EU, $2.03 billion from the U.S. through the World Bank Trust Fund, $540.7 million from placement of government bonds, $402 million from the World Bank, $367.8 million from the Canadian government and $528.9 million from other international creditors.
The total amount of payments of the government for servicing and repayment of government debt in foreign currency was $833.9 million, including $119.6 million directed to repay debt to international creditors and $714.3 million to service government bonds.
Besides, Ukraine transferred $166.2 mln to the IMF.
The international reserves were also affected by the NBU transactions at the interbank market. In particular, it sold $3.193 bln at the currency market and bought $29.6 mln to the reserves, due to which the interventions balance was negative $3.163 bln.
In addition, the reserves were affected by an upward revaluation of financial instruments by $231.6 mln.
According to the NBU, the current volume of international reserves provides financing for 3.6 months of future imports, which is sufficient to meet the obligations of Ukraine and the current operations of the government and the National Bank.
As reported, at the beginning of 2022, Ukraine’s international reserves stood at $30.941 billion, net international reserves (NIR) at $20.767 billion.
Ukraine’s international reserves as of January 1, 2023, according to preliminary data, amounted to $28.491 billion, which is 1.9% or $536.4 million more compared to November 2022 due to foreign exchange earnings from international partners that exceeded NBU interventions selling currencies to maintain a fixed exchange rate.
As the NBU reported on its website on Friday evening, in general, they decreased by 7.9%, or $2.45 billion over the year.
The National Bank clarified that net international reserves in December increased by 3.3%, or $579 million, to $18.318 billion, but over the year they decreased by 11.8%, or $2.45 billion.
According to the regulator, in December the dynamics of international reserves was affected by operations to manage public debt. In particular, foreign exchange receipts to the accounts of the government of Ukraine with the NBU in December amounted to $4.468 billion, including from the EU – $598.7 million, from the United States through the World Bank trust fund – $2.03 billion, from the placement of government bonds – $540.7 million, from the World Bank – $402 million, from the Government of Canada – $367.8 million, from other international lenders – $528.9 million.
The total amount of government payments for servicing and repaying state debt in foreign currency amounted to $833.9 million, including $119.6 million directed to repay debt to international creditors, $714.3 million – to service government bonds.
In addition, Ukraine transferred $166.2 million to the IMF.
International reserves were also affected by NBU operations on the interbank market. In particular, they sold $3.193 billion on the foreign exchange market and bought $29.6 million into reserves, due to which the balance of interventions was negative and amounted to $3.163 billion.
In addition, reserves were affected by an upward revaluation of financial instruments by $231.6 million.
According to the NBU, the current volume of international reserves provides funding for 3.6 months of future imports, which is enough to meet Ukraine’s obligations and current operations of the government and the National Bank.
As reported, at the beginning of 2022, Ukraine’s international reserves amounted to $30.941 billion, net international reserves (NIR) – $20.767 billion.
The international reserves of Ukraine as of October 1, 2022, according to preliminary data, amounted to $23 billion 929.6 million (in equivalent), which is 5.9% less than at the beginning of September ($25.436 billion), according to the data of the National Bank of Ukraine, released on Thursday.
“As of October 1, 2022, Ukraine’s international reserves, according to preliminary data, amounted to $23.929 billion. In September, they decreased by 5.9%, taking into account the sale of foreign currency by the National Bank on the interbank market, including to meet defense needs and payments of Ukrainians abroad. At that At the same time, steady receipts from international partners continue to keep international reserves at a sufficient level, despite a full-scale war,” the regulator explained.
The regulator clarified that net international reserves in September decreased by 4.6%, or $736 million, to $15.181 billion, while in August their growth was 26.6%, or $3 billion 342 million (to $15.917 billion).
According to the National Bank, in September the dynamics of international reserves was affected by operations to manage public debt. In particular, foreign exchange receipts to the accounts of the Ukrainian government with the NBU in September amounted to $2.034 billion, including from the United States – $1.5 billion, from the EU – $482 million, from the placement of government bonds – $51.7 million.
The total volume of board payments for servicing and repaying state debt in foreign currency amounted to $65.1 million, including $63 million directed to repay debt to international creditors, $2.1 million – to service government bonds.
In addition, Ukraine transferred $624.6 million to the IMF.
International reserves were also affected by NBU operations on the interbank market. In particular, they sold $2.777 billion on the foreign exchange market and bought $39.4 million into reserves, due to which the balance of interventions was negative and amounted to $2.728 billion.
In addition, the reserves were affected by the revaluation of financial instruments, in particular, their decrease by $115.5 million.
“The current volume of international reserves provides funding for 3.7 months of future imports, which is enough to meet the obligations of Ukraine and the current operations of the government and the National Bank,” Certrobank said.
As reported, at the beginning of 2022, Ukraine’s international reserves amounted to $30.941 billion, net international reserves (NIR) – $20.767 billion.
The international reserves of Ukraine as of September 1, 2022, according to preliminary data, amounted to $25 billion 436 million (in equivalent), which is 13.6% more than at the beginning of June ($22.757 billion), according to data from the National Bank of Ukraine, published in Tuesday.
“As of September 1, 2022, Ukraine’s international reserves, according to preliminary data, amounted to $ 25.436 billion. In August, they grew by 13.6% due to the receipt of a significant amount of international assistance against the backdrop of the country’s moderate debt payments in foreign currency and smaller interventions by the National Bank to sell foreign currency “, the controller explained.
As reported, in June, the fall in reserves amounted to 1.6%, or $371.5 million.
The regulator clarified that net international reserves in August increased by 26.6%, or $3 billion 342 million, to $15.917 billion, while in July they fell by 2.9%, or $377 million (to $12.575 billion).
According to the National Bank, in August the dynamics of international reserves was affected by assistance from foreign partners and operations to manage public debt. In particular, foreign exchange receipts to the accounts of the Ukrainian government with the NBU in August amounted to $4.788 billion, including from the United States – $3 billion, from the EU – $1 billion, from Canada – $349.3 million, from Italy – $205.6 million, from the placement domestic government bonds – $99.6 million, from other creditors – $87.4 million.
The total volume of board payments for servicing and repaying state debt in foreign currency amounted to $171.9 million, including $165.4 million directed to repay debt to international creditors, $6.5 million – to service government bonds.
In addition, Ukraine transferred $221.1 million to the IMF.
International reserves were also affected by NBU operations on the interbank market. In particular, they sold $1.641 billion on the foreign exchange market and bought $311.7 million into reserves, due to which the balance of interventions was negative and amounted to $1.33 billion.
It is indicated that the sale of foreign currency by the Central Bank decreased due to the adjustment of the official exchange rate to UAH 36.57/$.
In addition, the reserves were affected by the revaluation of financial instruments, in particular, their decrease by $16.4 million.
“The current volume of international reserves provides financing for four months of future imports, which is enough to meet the obligations of Ukraine and the current operations of the government and the National Bank,” the bank said.
As reported, at the beginning of 2022, Ukraine’s international reserves amounted to $30.941 billion, net international reserves (NIR) – $20.767 billion.
