After falling to $27.84 billion in May, Ukraine’s international reserves returned to the level of the end of April and amounted to $28 billion in the middle of June, Head of the Council of the National Bank of Ukraine Bohdan Danylyshyn has said.
“The total net balance of foreign exchange interventions by the NBU since the beginning of 2021 has increased to $655 million, which, taking into account the government’s borrowings in foreign currency, has made it possible to expand the NBU’s international reserves to $28 billion,” he wrote on Facebook.
Danylyshyn said that in the interbank FX market during the last week there was a significant (about $43 million on average per day) prevalence of foreign currency supply over demand, which led to the strengthening of the hryvnia exchange rate by 0.8%, to UAH 27.00/$1 and allowed National Bank to buy back $375 million in a week.
The head of the NBU Council said that high prices for the main goods of Ukrainian exports – agricultural products, iron ore and steel, as well as an increase in the demand of nonresidents on government securities of Ukraine contributed to the increase in the supply of foreign currency by 18.7% by the first week of the month, with the demand decreasing by 2.7%.
As reported, at the beginning of this year, Ukraine’s international reserves amounted to $29.113 billion.
Ukraine’s international reserves increased by early May 2021, according to preliminary data, to $28 billion (equivalent), which is 3.6% more than in early April 2021 ($27.035 billion), the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has said on Friday.
“As of May 1, 2021, Ukraine’s international reserves, according to preliminary data, amounted to $28 billion (equivalent). In April, they increased by 3.6%, taking into account foreign exchange receipts in favor of the government and the revaluation of financial instruments,” the NBU said.
Ukraine’s international reserves as of February 1, 2021, according to preliminary data, fell to $28.821 billion (equivalent), which is $279 million less than at the beginning of January this year, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has said.
“In January, they [the reserves] decreased by 1.1%, primarily due to the repayment of external and internal obligations of the state. At the same time, the intervention of the National Bank in the foreign exchange market and foreign exchange receipts in favor of the government partially counterbalanced the impact of payments for servicing the state debt,” the report says.
The net international reserves of Ukraine as of January 1 amounted to $ 18.1 billion, which is 19% more than at the beginning of December 2020 ($ 15.2 billion), Head of the Council of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) Bohdan Danylyshyn has said.
“The net forex reserves of the NBU [excluding the debt to the IMF] as of January 1, 2021 amounted to $ 18.1 billion and are sufficient to cover payments by the public sector and the National Bank on external debt to non-residents, which in 2021 will amount to about $ 7.2 billion,” he said on Facebook.
Danylyshyn added that of the external debt to non-residents, about $ 2 billion should be paid by the government on eurobonds in September 2021, as well as to cover the current account deficit, which, according to the NBU forecast, is expected at $ 3.5 billion in 2021.
According to him, the volume of planned payments of the state in favor of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in 2021 is about $ 1.6 billion, including $ 1.36 billion for the repayment of the principal amount of the debt and $ 260 million for interest payments.
“The need to refinance Ukraine’s debt to the IMF requires the parties to fulfill their obligations under the current Stand-By Arrangement, which will allow Ukraine to attract IMF financing in the amount of about $ 2.9 billion,” he said.
He added that taking into account payments on the debt of banking and corporate sectors, as well as inter-company debt, the total volume of payments from Ukraine in favor of non-residents in 2021 will be about $ 15.5 billion.
As reported, the international reserves of Ukraine in 2020 increased by 15% and amounted to $ 29.1 billion as of January 1, 2021.
The international reserves of Ukraine by the end of 2020 may exceed the level of $27.2 billion in the April forecast of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), the press service of the regulator has told Interfax-Ukraine. “The relatively favorable situation in the world commodity markets, a significant decline in imports, and the signing of a new program with the IMF give reason to expect that international reserves ($25.4 billion at the end of May) will grow even more by the end of the year than according to our April forecast ($27.2 billion),” the report said.
The press service said that the corresponding forecast is the current assumption, recalling that the central bank will present a new macroeconomic forecast in July.
“It’s probably hard to say what the next steps will be like – the uncertainty is too high. Back in April, let’s say, we didn’t even forecast a reduction in the refinancing rate below 7% this year, but today we have already reduced it to a record level of 6%,” the regulator’s press service said.
As reported, the IMF predicts a reduction in Ukraine’s international reserves this year from the current $25.4 billion to $19.3 billion, with a recovery in 2021 to $23.4 billion and in 2022 to $26.5 billion.
Ukraine’s international reserves in August 2019, according to preliminary data, rose by 0.8%, to $22.015 billion.
“They have not changed much during the month due to the fact that the National Bank’s net purchase of foreign currency in the interbank market offset the cost of repaying and servicing the state debt,” the NBU said.
