Demand for lithium, which is used to produce electric vehicle batteries, is likely to grow in the coming years, supporting prices that have fallen significantly in recent years, Market Watch reports, citing experts.
“Currently, the world does not produce enough lithium hydroxide to meet the demand driven by the growing popularity of electric vehicles,” said Austin Devaney, chief commercial officer of Piedmont Lithium Inc. Austin Devaney.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the share of electric vehicles in total global vehicle sales last year was 14%. It more than tripled from 4% in 2020. In 2023, global sales of electric vehicles are expected to grow by 35% compared to the previous year.
Fundamental factors suggest that the global electric vehicle market will continue to grow, says Devani.
Meanwhile, the average price of lithium-ion batteries fell by 8.7% in August, falling below $100 per kWh for the first time since August 2021, according to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. The price reached $98.1 kWh on September 6, which is 33% lower than the peak recorded in March last year – $146.4 kWh.
The global lithium surplus has increased this year compared to last, but S&P Global Commodity Insights expects it to decline over the next three years.
According to S&P Global Commodity’s forecast, this year’s market supply will amount to 990.065 thousand tons of lithium carbonate equivalent, while demand will be 928.717 thousand tons. As a result, the surplus of lithium will reach 61,348 thousand tons compared to 10,061 thousand tons in 2022.
In 2024, the oversupply will decrease to 43 thousand tons of lithium carbonate equivalent, in 2025 – to 11 thousand tons, in 2026 – to 3 thousand tons, and in 2027 a deficit of 8 thousand tons will be recorded, according to S&P Global Commodity.
After 2027, demand for lithium will exceed supply, Devani said, citing Benchmark Mineral Intelligence forecasts.
“We believe that the expected lithium shortage requires the US to increase production capacity and reduce dependence on other countries,” the expert says. The bulk of lithium raw materials used in the US are mined in Australia and South America, with 80% of these raw materials being processed in China, Devani said.
According to him, the total amount of announced investments in battery production capacity in the United States over the past two years amounted to approximately $80 billion. In order for these capacities to be utilized, the annual supply of lithium hydroxide in the United States should reach 715 thousand tons by 2030, which is more than 40 times higher than the volume currently produced in the country (approximately 17 thousand tons).
Devaney noted that his company plans to produce about 60 thousand tons of lithium hydroxide per year in the long term, which is expected to be enough for about 1.2 million electric vehicles per year.
UkrLithium Mining LLC (“UkrLithium”) intends to build a lithium mine in Kirovograd region in compliance with international environmental standards.
According to a company press release, management considered two options for mining lithium-containing ores in Kirovograd Region: open-pit (open-pit) and shaft method.
“We decided on the mine method because the environmental component is important for us. We want to be esg-friendly (environmental, social and corporate management),” explained the director of strategic development of “Ukrlitydobycha” Denis Alyoshin in an interview with “Business Telegraph,” which is quoted by the press service.
According to him, although Ukraine is not yet in the European Union, but the company believes that the country will be there in the next few years. Therefore, it performs all works according to the highest European standards. The mine method is much less harmful to the environment than open-pit mining.
“The mine will cost much more for the project investors, but this is the method we choose. We will dive about 600 meters deep into the deposit. The second stage will be the construction of an enrichment plant, where we will turn the ore into petalite concentrate,” Aleshin explained.
“Ukrlytiy has signed a contract with the British company Wardell Armstrong, which will conduct research ESIA (Environmental and Social Impact Assessment) – an international analogue of the Ukrainian environmental study OIA (Environmental Impact Assessment). It is necessary in order to make the project of the mine and the mining and processing plant in compliance with international standards on the environment. For this purpose a mini-meteorological station will be installed on the territory of the future construction, samples of soil, water, etc. will be collected. Within about a year and a half a study will be carried out, the results of which will give recommendations and conclusions in the form of an extensive report, exactly how to minimize the potential impact on the environment.
The press release specifies that in 2017 LLC “Ukrlitydobycha” acquired a special permit for the development of Polokhovsky lithium deposit in Kirovograd region. As of 2023, preparatory work for the construction of the mine and concentrator has been or is being carried out.
From 2018 to 2021 several drilling campaigns were carried out (a total of more than 5,000 meters). This allowed a geological evaluation of reserves in accordance with the international JORC code.
Contracts have been signed for a Pre Feasibility Study, which will be completed by the end of 2023.
Work has begun on the Environmental and Social Impact Assessment Study, which takes about 1.5 years.
Definitive Feasibility Study is planned for 2024 – the last stage of the research to substantiate the key technological, financial and economic parameters of the project.
According to the company’s website, the mine is expected to operate for 15 to 20 years with an anticipated annual production of up to 200,000 tons of petalite concentrate. The company is also exploring the possibility of building a lithium hydroxide/carbonate plant.
“Ukrlytium” will also produce about 1,100 thousand tons per year of lithium-bearing feldspar.
Petro-Consulting LLC (Kyiv), which early this year received a permit from the State Service of Geology and Deposits of Ukraine to produce lithium ores in the Shevchenkivske field (Velyka Novosilka district of Donetsk region) with 14 million tonnes of deposits, plans to attract a majority foreign partner for developing the field and start production in 2021. “Preliminary feasibility study shows the need to invest more than $120 million in the creation of: industrial infrastructure (electricity, gas, water supply and sewage, road construction to the railway station and the road between the mine and the dressing plant), the construction of a mine at a depth of at least 500 meters and a dressing plant,” the director of the company Ihor Kolomiyets told Interfax-Ukraine.
According to him, for the implementation of the mine construction project, a feasibility study was ordered in one of the international consulting companies.
Kolomiyets said that currently negotiations are being conducted with international investors who have experience in mining of metal ores in mines, enrichment of lithium ores at lithium dressing plants and distribution of lithium concentrate.
“Petro-Consulting has signed a letter of intent with two international companies and is negotiating the signing of the respective contracts. Investors will be attracted on the terms of their participation in the capital, as well as assistance in attracting loans. It is also planned to conclude a long-term off-take agreement,” the company’s director said, adding that one of the companies already has a similar project.
Commenting on publications in the media about the alleged connection of Petro-Consulting with People’s Deputy Ihor Kononenko, Deputy Head of the National Security and Defense Council Oleh Hladkovsky, businessman Vasyl Khmelnytsky, the director of the company categorically denied this.
