Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2021, according to preliminary estimates, will amount to 3.2%, which won’t compensate for the 4% economic decline in 2020, head of the Council of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) Bohdan Danylyshyn has said.
The World Bank has lowered its forecast for Ukraine’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2022 to 3.2%, and in 2023 to 3.5%, while in October last year it expected it to increase accordingly by 3.5% and 3.7%.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has downgraded its estimate of the growth of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2022 from 3.8% to 3.4%, in 2021 – to 3% from 3.1%.
The deficit of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-November 2021 fell by 13.2% compared to January-November 2020, to $3.607 billion from $4.158 billion, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine reported.
The growth of consumer prices in Ukraine in 2021 accelerated to 10% from 5% in 2020 and 4.1% in 2019.
Inflation in the raw food group of goods in 2022 may range from 10% to 20%, which will lead to an inflationary jump to 8-10% and, in turn, will require anti-crisis measures, adviser to the Ukrainian president Oleh Ustenko has said.
The deficit of the general fund of the state budget of Ukraine in 2021 amounted to UAH 166.8 billion, while the plan was UAH 220.9 billion, and in December the deficit of the general fund was UAH 109.1 billion, the Ministry of Finance reported with reference to the operational data of the State Treasury Service of Ukraine.
The total state debt of Ukraine in December grew by 4.04% in U.S. dollars to $97.95 billion, in hryvnias by 4.43%, to UAH 2.671 trillion, according to data on the website of the Ministry of Finance, released on Wednesday.
Industrial production in Ukraine grew by 1.1% in 2021, while a 5.2% decline was recorded in 2020.
Ukraine in January-November 2021 sold industrial products (goods, services) worth UAH 3.185 trillion, which is 44.2% more than in January-November 2020 (UAH 2.209 trillion), including outside the country in the amount of UAH 920.471 billion.
Real wages in Ukraine in December 2021 increased by 11.9% compared to December 2020, and compared to November 2021, the growth was 21.5%.
The volume of construction work performed in Ukraine in 2021 increased by 5.1% compared to 2020, while the growth rate in 2020 compared to 2019, according to updated data, was 5.6%.
The transport enterprises of Ukraine in 2021 increased transportation of goods by 3.3% compared to 2020 – up to 619.9 million tonnes.
Since the beginning of the 2021/2022 marketing year (MY, July-June) and as of January 21, Ukraine has exported 36.08 million tonnes of grain and leguminous crops, which is 27.6% more than the figures for the same date of the previous marketing year.
Publisher of “Open4Business”, PhD in Economics, Maksim Urakin.
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Oxford Economics has worsened its expectations for real GDP growth in Ukraine to 3.5% in 2021 from 4% in the August forecast, as well as the forecast for economic growth in 2022 – to 3.4% from 3.5%. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) kept its forecast for Ukraine’s economic growth in 2021 at 3.5%, according to its November forecast released on Thursday.
Ukraine’s real gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter of 2021 increased by 2.4% compared to the third quarter of 2020 after growing by 5.7% in the second quarter of this year, the State Statistics Service published such preliminary estimates.
The growth of the Ukrainian economy in 2021, taking into account the preliminary data of the State Statistics Service for the third quarter, may turn out to be at the level of 3% against 4.6% set in the state budget for this year, which will mean the absence of payments on value recovery instruments (VRI) in 2023, according to experts interviewed by Interfax-Ukraine.
Ukraine’s GDP in January-September 2021 grew by 2% compared to the same period last year, Head of the Council of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) Bohdan Danylyshyn has said. J.P. Morgan has sharply downgraded its forecast for real GDP growth in Ukraine in 2021 from 4.5% to 2.3%, while maintaining its forecast for GDP growth in 2022 by 5%, according to the materials of the November EMEA Emerging Markets Research. Analysts at Morgan Stanley have lowered their estimate of Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2021 to 3% from 3.4% in the October outlook, the growth forecast for 2022 has been lowered to 3.5% from 4.2%, according to the outlook materials.
Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2021 may be lower than the 3.1% previously predicted by the central bank, Deputy Governor of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) Serhiy Nikolaichuk has said.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded its estimate of Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2021 to 3.2%, compared with 3.5% in the October forecast, according to Ukraine’s memorandum with the fund, released on November 24.
The surplus of the foreign trade of Ukraine for January-September 2021 increased by 95.7% compared to January-September 2020 – up to $440 million.
The deficit of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-September 2021 decreased by 37.9% compared to January-September 2020, to $ 1.966 billion from $ 3.166 billion, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine has reported.
The growth of consumer prices in Ukraine year-over-year in October 2021 decreased to 10.9% from 11% in September, the State Statistics Service reported.
The total public debt of Ukraine in October 2021 grew by 0.66% in U.S. dollars and amounted to $92.63 billion, while it decreased by 0.28% in hryvnias, to UAH 2.438 trillion.
After a 0.7% decline in September in October 2021, industrial production in Ukraine returned to growth and grew by 1.4% compared to October 2020, the State Statistics Service reported.
Real wages in Ukraine increased by 4% in October 2021 y-o-y, and decreased by 2.2% compared to September of this year.
Publisher of “Open4Business”, PhD in Economics, Maksim Urakin
Dragon Capital has downgraded its forecast for Ukrainian economic growth in 2021 from 4.6% to 3.5% due to unexpectedly worse-than-expected preliminary GDP data for the second quarter of this year, the founder of the company Tomas Fiala has said. The growth of the gross domestic product (GDP) of Ukraine in January-July 2021 became stronger, reaching 2.1%, the Ministry of Economy has said. The President’s Office estimates the growth of Ukraine’s GDP in 2021 at 3.8%, Deputy Head of the President’s Office Yulia Svyrydenko has said.
The real gross domestic product (GDP) of Ukraine in the second quarter of 2021 increased by 5.7% compared to the same period in 2020, the State Statistics Service reported.
The deficit of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-July 2021 decreased by 26.2% compared to January-July 2020, to $1.725 billion from $2.339 billion, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine has reported. The surplus of Ukraine’s balance of foreign trade in the first half of 2021 fell by 46.3% compared to the first half of last year, to $0.41 billion.
The growth of consumer prices in Ukraine in annual terms in August 2021 remained at the level of 10.2%.
Receipts of the state budget of Ukraine in August 2021 amounted to UAH 142 billion, which is 8.7% higher than the target and 41.7% more than August 2020, according to the data of the Treasury Service.
The total public debt of Ukraine in August 2021 in U.S. dollars decreased by 0.5%, or by $440 million, to $92.53 billion, the Ministry of Finance said on its website.
Industrial production in Ukraine in August 2021 increased by 0.6% compared to August 2020, while in July the growth was 0.2%, in June – 1.1%, in March – 5.4%, and in April – 13%.
Real wages in Ukraine in August 2021 compared to August 2020 grew by 10.9%, compared to July of this year it fell by 2.2%, the State Statistics Service has said.
The volume of construction work performed in Ukraine in July 2021 increased 0.5% compared to the same period in 2020.
Publisher of “Open4Business”, PhD in Economics, Maksim Urakin
Ukraine’s real gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter of 2021 grew by 5.4% compared to the second quarter of 2020, while falling by 2.2% in the first quarter of this year.
Alfa-Bank (Kyiv) has downgraded the forecast for real GDP growth in Ukraine in 2021 to 3.7% instead of 4.3% in the April forecast and the average annual inflation in 2021 to 9.4% instead of the previously predicted 8.5%.
Oxford Economics has downgraded the forecast for Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2021 to 4% from 4.4% in the July forecast, and the risks of further lockdowns and expectations of tightening fiscal and monetary policy led to a deterioration in the forecast for economic growth in 2022 from 4.2% to 3.5%.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley have downgraded the estimate of Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2021 to 3.4% compared to 4.5%, as previously expected, and predict a 4.2% GDP growth in 2022.
The Kyiv School of Economics (KSE) has worsened its 2021 GDP growth expectations to 3.6% from 4.7% in its April forecast and improved its 2022 GDP growth forecast – 4.4% from 2. 7%, Head of the KSE Center of Macroeconomic Modeling Yuriy Sholomytsky has said.
The deficit of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-June 2021 narrowed by 12.7% compared to January-June 2020, to $1.327 billion from $1.519 billion, the State Statistics Service reported.
The surplus of Ukraine’s balance of foreign trade in the first half of 2021 fell by 46.3% compared to the first half of last year, to $0.41 billion.
The growth of consumer prices in Ukraine in annual terms in July 2021 accelerated to 10.2% from 9.5% in June, the State Statistics Service has reported.
The deficit of the state budget for 2022 in the bill for the first reading is provided at the level of 3.5% of GDP in accordance with the Budget Declaration for three years, while there is no possibility to revise this indicator for the second reading, Finance Minister of Ukraine Serhiy Marchenko said in interview.
The total public debt of Ukraine in July 2021 increased by 0.48% in U.S. dollars and amounted to $ 92.96 billion, while it decreased by 0.6% in hryvnias, to UAH 2.499 trillion, according to data on the website of the Ministry of Finance.
Industrial production in Ukraine in July 2021 increased by 0.2% compared to July 2020, while in June the growth was 1.1%, in March – 5.4%, and in April – 13%.
Exports of products of the agro-industrial complex of Ukraine decreased by 8.8 p.p., from 44% in January-July 2020 to 35.2% in January-July 2021, while the share of these products in the total imports into the country over the same period – by 0.9 percentage points, to 11.3%, the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food reported.
Retail goods turnover in Ukraine in June 2021 year-over-year grew by 13% year-over-year in comparable prices, while in May the figure was 22.7%.
Publisher of “Open4Business”, PhD in Economics, Maksim Urakin
Dragon Capital has downgraded the forecast for Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2021 from 5.3% in the February forecast to 4.6%, while it expects the rate of UAH 27.5/$1 at the end of this year and UAH 28/$1 – next year, head of the company Tomas Fiala has said.
The decline in the gross domestic product of Ukraine (GDP) in January-June 2021 due to lockdown restrictions amounted to 0.6 percentage points (p.p.), Deputy Governor of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) Yuriy Heletiy has said.
The Ministry of Economy has estimated the growth of Ukraine’s GDP in April-June 2021 at 6%, for January-May – at 0.7%, according to the materials on the ministry’s website.
The National Bank of Ukraine improved its forecast for the current account deficit from 0.8% of GDP to 0.4% of GDP in 2021 and left unchanged the forecast for real GDP growth in 2021 at 3.8%, the regulator said on the website.
The National Bank of Ukraine in the updated Inflation Report published on the website again worsened the estimate of the growth of Ukraine’s gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter of 2021 (hereinafter compared to the same period in 2020), to 7.5% from 8.7% in April and from 11.3% in the January report.
The deficit of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-May 2021 increased by 25.5% compared to January-May 2020, to $ 1.078 billion from $ 859 million.
The negative balance of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-June 2021 decreased by 8.36%, to $1.25 billion with an increase in exports of almost 30.3%, to $29.97 billion, imports – by 28.4%, to $31.22 billion, according to data from the State Customs Service.
The growth of consumer prices in Ukraine at the end of June 2021 decreased to 0.2% from 1.3% at the end of May. In annual terms, inflation remained at 9.5%.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) expects inflation to rise to 11% in 2021, according to a chart released by the central bank.
Revenues of the state budget of Ukraine in June 2021 amounted to UAH 106.7 billion, which is 15.9% more than the planned figure and 18.7% less than in June 2020, according to data from the State Treasury Service.
The deficit of the general fund of the state budget of Ukraine in June 2021 increased to UAH 18.5 billion, and since the beginning of the year – to UAH 49.8 billion, the Ministry of Finance has said.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) on July 22 will keep the refinancing rate at 7.5% per annum, predict the majority of the bankers surveyed by the Interfax-Ukraine agency.
The total public debt of Ukraine in June 2021 grew by 1.09% in U.S. dollars and amounted to $92.52 billion, while it fell by 0.09% in hryvnias, to UAH 2.514 trillion, according to data on the website of the Ministry of Finance. Industrial production in Ukraine in June 2021 increased by 1.1% compared to June 2020, while in May the growth was 5.4%, and in April – 13%, the State Statistics Service has reported.
The volume of construction work performed in Ukraine in January-June 2021 increased by 0.2% compared to the same period in 2020.
Retail goods turnover in Ukraine in June 2021 year-over-year grew by 13% year-over-year in comparable prices, while in May the figure was 22.7%, the State Statistics Service has reported.
Publisher of “Open4Business”, PhD in Economics, Maksim Urakin
The government has approved the forecast of economic and social growth of Ukraine for the next three years, according to which GDP growth under the baseline scenario is expected at 3.8% in 2022, 4.7% in 2023 and 5% in 2024, the Ministry of Economy reported on the website.
Oxford Economics has improved its forecast for Ukraine’s real GDP growth in 2021 to 4.9%, up from 4% in the February forecast.
The decline in Ukraine’s GDP in January-April 2021 slowed down to 0.2%, according to an estimate by the Ministry of Economy.
The real gross domestic product of Ukraine in the first quarter of 2021 decreased 2.2%, the State Statistics Service reported the updated estimate on Tuesday, while in the middle of May the decline was tentatively assessed at 2%.
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has improved its forecast for the economic growth in Ukraine in 2021 from 3% to 3.5%, according to its June forecast.
The negative balance of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-April 2021 increased by 47.3% compared to January-April 2020, to $ 1.299 billion from $ 882 million, the State Statistics Service has reported.
The negative balance of Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods in January-June 2021 decreased by 8.36%, to $1.25 billion with an increase in exports of almost 30.3%, to $29.97 billion, imports – by 28.4%, to $31.22 billion, according to data from the State Customs Service.
The growth of consumer prices in Ukraine in May 2021 in annual terms accelerated to 9.5% from 8.4% in April.
The state budget in May 2021 had a deficit of UAH 4.6 billion, while the state budget deficit in January-May 2021 amounted to UAH 33.7 billion, according to data from the State Treasury Service of Ukraine.
The total public debt of Ukraine in May 2021 grew by 0.21% in U.S. dollars, to $91.52 billion and decreased by 0.69% in hryvnias, to UAH 2.516 trillion, according to data on the website of the Ministry of Finance, published in Friday.
Industrial production in Ukraine in May 2021 increased by 5.4% compared to May 2020, while in April the growth was 13%, in March – 2.1%, and in February and January there was a decline, respectively by 4.6% and 4%, the State Statistics Service has said.
Prices in the Ukrainian industry in May 2021 increased by 3.6%, while in April – by 1.2%, in March – by 1.6%, in February – by 7.8%, in January – by 5.2%, the State Statistics Service has said.
Ukraine completed the 2020/2021 marketing year (MY, July-June), having exported 48.8 million tonnes of grains and oilseeds, which is 17% less than the volumes predicted a year ago, the Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) reported on the website.
Prices for construction and assembly work in Ukraine in May 2021 increased by 16.8% compared to May 2020, the State Statistics Service has reported.
The retail trade turnover of Ukraine in May 2021 grew by 22.7% compared to the same month in 2020 in comparable prices, while in April this figure was 34.3%, the State Statistics Service said on Tuesday.
Publisher of “Open4Business”, PhD in Economics, Maksim Urakin
