A new video dedicated to the situation in the Ukrainian and world economy at the beginning of 2023 has been published on the YouTube channel of the “Club of Experts” analytical center. The official data concerning the main macroeconomic indicators was presented in the program as well as the forecasts of the leading world analytics for the years 2023-2024 were consolidated.
According to the analysts, the indicators of Ukrainian economy are stable on the whole. Thus to support it in the conditions of war in 2023 the increase of volumes of macrofinancial help from partners will be required. Thus, the founder of the Club of Experts, candidate of economic sciences Maxim Urakin referred to the IMF assessment, according to which Ukraine’s needs for external financing in the current year will be not less than 39.5 billion dollars and can reach 57 billion.
“This forecast is an expression of a high degree of uncertainty on the part of the world’s leading financial institutions with regard to the situation in the Ukrainian economy, and also demonstrates the increasing pressure on it from expenditures,” the expert stressed.
As for the global indicators, the same IMF forecasts that more than a third of the global economy in 2023 will arrive in recession. In turn, Bloomberg notes a record fall in global stock and bond markets in the last months of 2022. At the same time, investors are more optimistic about this year’s prospects.
“The end of the cycle of interest rate hikes, the recovery of the Chinese economy and the end of the war in Ukraine followed by the recovery of our economy could significantly improve the situation both in our country and in the world,” said Maxim Urakin.
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In its new video, the Expert Club YouTube channel reviewed the macroeconomic situation in Ukraine in the 6th month of the war, and also analyzed the July IMF report on the global economic outlook in 2022 and 2023.
As we wrote earlier, the state authorities of Ukraine have temporarily suspended the publication of most statistical information for the period of martial law and for three months from the moment it ends. The exception is the publication of data on the consumer price index, separate information on indicators of foreign trade in goods, etc.
Thus, from the data published by the State Employment Center, it follows that the number of registered unemployed in Ukraine is approximately at the level of last year, while the number of available vacancies has sharply decreased.
This, according to the founder of the Club of Experts Maksim Urakin, has led to the fact that now about 12-13 unemployed people apply for one vacancy.
“The estimate of the unemployment rate by the National Bank in the second quarter of 2022 is 35% according to the methodology of the International Labor Organization,” Maksim Urakin added.
In addition, according to Urakin, the current forecast for Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2023-2024, published by the National Bank, is based primarily on expectations of an increase in international support for Ukraine and the implementation of programs to restore war-damaged infrastructure.
On the situation in the global economy, the Club of Experts analyzed the report of the International Monetary Fund, published in July. In particular, there is a possible recession in the US economy. a slowdown in GDP growth in China and India, as well as a deterioration in the situation in the euro area, provoked by rising energy prices.
See this and much more in a new video on the YouTube channel “Experts Club” at the link:
CLUB OF EXPERTS, ECONOMIC_UKRAINE, MACROECONOMICS, STATISTICS, URAKIN, ВІДЕО
The Experts Club continues a series of programs dedicated to the macroeconomics of Ukraine. The new issue analyzes the preliminary results of 2021.
“We create such analytical videos in order to increase the level of knowledge of the population in the field of economics and for easy visualization of a huge number of figures. Such content, of course, is not a “mass market,” but we do not strive for it either. We focus on a thinking and searching audience,” founder of the Experts Club project Maksim Urakin said.
The issue analyzes the change in the number of the population of Ukraine, the current unemployment rates, presents the labor market in the regional context. In addition, GDP indicators are given, the main trade partners of the country are named, trends and plans for the payment of Ukraine’s internal and external debt, as well as indicators of retail and inflation, are analyzed.
The video contains a large number of author’s charts, histograms, which conveniently illustrate the main macroeconomic trends.
The Experts Club is dedicated to political science, economics, science, futurology, contains expert opinions and analysis of the topics discussed.
This video is available for viewing at the link
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gUs6fF–F-c
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The Macroeconomic Review section has been launched on a monthly basis within the framework of the Experts Club. In the first video, the co-founder of the project, PhD in Economics, Maksim Urakin, analyzed the main macro indicators.
“The goal of our Macroeconomic Review project is to provide the viewer with the key statistics and information in the most convenient form, to do it succinctly and clearly, replacing cumbersome tables and lengthy reasoning with graphic analysis,” research organizer Maksim Urakin said.
In the block on the population of Ukraine, the latest data of the State Statistics Service on the number of residents of our country were presented, a comparison was made between the statistics of state bodies and the indicators of the so-called “electronic census” of January 2020. In addition, the latest data on unemployment and wages in the regions were studied.
In the economic block, the indicators of GDP, the volume of foreign trade, the main trade partners of Ukraine, the national debt, the indicators and sources of investment and industrial production are analyzed.
All data is presented in the form of graphs and diagrams that complement the visual backdrop.
In the future, the Experts Club will analyze and present both the current statistics of Ukraine and compare the latest data with the previous periods, as well as with the indicators of other countries.
In addition, a series of thematic programs are planned, which will be devoted to the state of various sectors of the Ukrainian economy and their characteristics over the period of 30 years of independence.
The full video can be found on the Experts Club YouTube channel at the link:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tCKGn3uGR_Y
You can subscribe to the Experts Club channel here.
