If current demographic trends continue, the EU population will age and begin to decline after the middle of the decade, and in a scenario of zero net migration, the decline could be sharp, to approximately 294 million by 2100, according to calculations based on Eurostat projections (EUROPOP2023).
According to Eurostat’s baseline scenario, which assumes continued positive net migration, the EU population will grow from 446.7 million in 2022 to a peak of 453.3 million in 2026, after which it will gradually decline to 419.5 million by 2100 (down 6.1% from 2022).
At the same time, Eurostat also publishes alternative scenarios (sensitivity tests), including a zero net migration option. In this scenario, the total population of the EU by the end of the century is significantly lower – estimated at around 294 million people, which means a reduction of about one-third from mid-2020s levels. These differences are also highlighted in visualizations based on Eurostat data, as cited by regional media.
The key driver of population decline is negative natural growth. According to Eurostat estimates, between 2022 and 2100, approximately 291.3 million people could be born in the EU, with 416.6 million deaths (a net reduction due to natural movement of approximately 125.3 million), while cumulative net migration in the baseline scenario will partially offset the losses, adding about 98.1 million people.
At the country level, the differences are even more noticeable. In Eurostat’s baseline scenario, the largest population declines by 2100 are expected in Latvia and Lithuania (more than a third), as well as in Greece. At the same time, a number of countries, on the contrary, show population growth due to migration, including Luxembourg and Ireland.
It is noted separately that for Croatia, Eurostat’s baseline scenario predicts a decline in population from about 3.86 million in 2022 to about 2.82 million in 2100, while in scenarios with stricter migration assumptions, the final figures may be lower.
According to Eurostat, as of the end of July 2025 there are 4,373,455 citizens of Ukraine under temporary protection in EU countries. Over the month their number increased by 30,980 people, that is approximately by 0.71% compared to the June level — the dynamics are moderate but stable, indicating a continuing, though not surging, movement of people in search of safety. The overwhelming majority of beneficiaries of this regime — about 98.4% — are Ukrainians, which makes the group of aid recipients extremely homogeneous and requires focused integration measures.
The distribution by countries remains concentrated: the key burden is borne by Germany, Poland, and the Czech Republic. In Germany there are about 1,196,645 people — roughly 27.8% of the total; in Poland — about 992,505 people (around 23%); in the Czech Republic — about 378,420 people (about 8.8%). Taken together this is almost three-fifths of all recipients of protection, therefore it is precisely these economies and their social systems that first react to any changes in inflow: in large agglomerations the issues of housing affordability become acute, the need for school places and language courses grows, and municipal budgets face continuous obligations.
In such conditions, reception policy inevitably shifts to an integration agenda. Coming to the fore are the accelerated recognition of qualifications, intensive language programs, access to kindergartens and schools, as well as reskilling instruments. The labor market becomes the main shock absorber: the faster people move into formal employment, the lower the budgetary burden and the more noticeable the multiplier effect for domestic demand. At the same time, the housing issue remains the key risk: concentration in capital and industrial regions pushes rental rates upward and increases social tension. Effective responses appear to be targeted rent subsidies, accelerated renovation and construction of social housing, as well as a more even distribution of placements among municipalities.
Finally, the predictability of financing and interagency coordination at the EU and national government levels becomes critically important. Even with the current “soft” monthly increase, unreliable sources of funds quickly turn a manageable situation into a problem for local budgets. On the horizon of the coming months, the key indicators of resilience will be the growth rates of protection beneficiaries, the share of those employed, indicators of school and preschool integration, the dynamics of rental rates in concentration regions, and the speed of transition from emergency measures to long-term programs. Overall, the picture of stable but continuing growth with high concentration in Germany, Poland, and the Czech Republic requires shifting efforts from short-term aid to systemic integration — precisely this will make it possible to reduce budgetary costs and turn the humanitarian response into a sustainable socio-economic result.
EU, GERMANY, HOUSING, Labor market, MIGRATION, POLAND, REFUGEES, SOCIAL POLICY, TEMPORARY PROTECTION, UKRAINIANS
Relocation has analyzed the latest data on migration in Italy and identified a number of trends and features. As of the beginning of 2025, 5.2 million migrants officially reside in Italy, which is about 9% of the country’s total population of 58.5 million people. In our study, we rely on official data from the country. It should be borne in mind that, according to various estimates, about 4 million more migrants may reside in Italy illegally. Italy remains an important destination for migrants due to its geographical location, economic opportunities, and EU membership.
Migrants play a significant role in the country’s economy, taking jobs in sectors where there is a shortage of local labor.
Detailed analysis of the main groups of migrants
Employment of migrants by sector
Agriculture:
More than 30% of workers are migrants, mostly from North Africa and Eastern Europe.
The seasonal nature of the work makes this sector particularly dependent on migrants.
Construction:
About 20% of workers are migrants, especially from Albania, Ukraine and North Africa.
Services and domestic staff:
Migrants hold up to 60% of jobs, including cleaning, childcare, and elderly care.
Restaurant and hotel business:
A significant part of the staff (up to 40%) is made up of migrants from Asia and Eastern Europe.
Industry and manufacturing:
Asian migrants (especially Chinese) play a key role in the textile industry.
The system of assistance to migrants in Italy
Migrant reception centers:
In the south of the country, especially in Sicily and Lampedusa, there are centers for temporary accommodation of migrants. Social assistance is provided – financial support for refugees and asylum seekers, as well as integration programs: language courses, professional retraining. Children of migrants are entitled to free education in public schools. Free access to primary health care for all migrants, regardless of their status.
Migrants play an important role in the Italian economy, occupying key positions in agriculture, construction and services. However, the successful integration of these groups requires a comprehensive approach that includes social support, educational initiatives and legal protection. Efforts to improve conditions for migrants will help Italy not only maintain stability in the labor market, but also improve the overall economic climate.
Source: http://relocation.com.ua/analiz-migratsii-v-italii-ot-relocation/
Net migration to the United Kingdom (the difference between the number of immigrants and emigrants) in the year to June 2023 amounted to a record high of 906 thousand people, according to revised data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Previously, a positive migration balance of 740 thousand people was reported. Among the reasons for the revision, the ONS cites more available data, additional information on visas for Ukrainians, and optimization of the procedure for assessing migration from countries outside the so-called EU+ (EU, Norway, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Switzerland).
In the year to June 2024, net migration fell by 20% compared to the revised level of the previous 12 months – to 728 thousand people. The decline is mainly due to a decrease in the number of dependents arriving on study visas.
How Ukrainian business migrates during the great war
Almost 19 thousand companies have relocated since the beginning of 2022, according to the Unified State Register. Kyiv and Zakarpattia regions were the most popular destinations for business. Among all companies, wholesalers relocate most often.
Of the total number of companies that have changed their location since the start of the full-scale war, just over 1,000 have moved from the city to the region. Half of them – more than 600 companies – moved from Kyiv, and another 60, or 5.1%, from Odesa region.
Kyiv region is the most popular choice for relocation – 546 relocations. This is almost every second business relocation since the start of the full-scale war. The most popular route was from Kyiv to Kyiv region: 359 relocations. In fact, 30% of all cases when businesses relocate to the region are on this route.
Other routes were less popular. For example, the routes from Lviv to Kyiv region and from Kyiv to Zakarpattia are in second and third place, with 2.7% and 2.6% respectively (30-32 companies).
The leaders in relocations were companies engaged in wholesale trade – 344 relocations (29.3%) and the transportation industry – 92 relocations (7.8%)
Ukroliya LLC with a turnover of over UAH 4 billion became the largest company to change its location. The company moved from Kyiv to Poltava region. Kyiv-Atlantic Ukraine LLC, with a turnover of over UAH 2 billion, also left Kyiv region, but to Cherkasy region.
Kercher LLC with a turnover of more than UAH 1 billion closes the list of top business migrants, as the company changed its place of registration to Kyiv region.
“We started preparing for the move 7 years ago – we bought land and started construction in the Kyiv region in 2020, which was interrupted by the Russian attack and partial occupation of the region. Within 4 months after the liberation of Kyiv region, the company resumed construction, so at the end of 2023, our team moved into a new space. In general, the location of the company outside the city, in the regions, is part of the philosophy of the Kercher brand throughout Europe,” comments Nadiya Kreposna, marketing manager at Kercher.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz spoke in favor of strengthening control over illegal migration and promised possible additional measures, the German edition of Welt reported on Saturday, September 23.
Many people are coming to Europe and Germany and their numbers have “increased dramatically,” Scholz said at a Social Democratic Party rally in Nuremberg, Welt reported.
In connection with the situation at the borders, Scholz called for clarification of possible irregularities in the issuance of visas in neighboring Poland. “I don’t want Poland to just wave us off and then discuss our asylum policy,” the FRG chancellor emphasized.
According to him, whoever comes to Poland should register there and go through the asylum procedure, “not get visas that were somehow handed out for money.” He suggested discussing the issue with the Polish government.
At the same time, Scholz added, depending on the current situation, “additional measures may have to be taken at the borders.”
