According to estimates by the Mykhailo Ptukha Institute of Demography and Quality of Life Research of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, the population of Ukraine in government-controlled territory currently stands at between 28 and 29 million people—as reported by the institute’s leading research fellow, Svitlana Aksyonova, on Hromadske Radio.
“This is certainly an alarming sign; this trend is certainly alarming. First and foremost, it’s not just that the number of births is decreasing, but the ratio itself is very alarming. For four consecutive years—from 2022 to 2025—the ratio remained at three. In other words, the death rate exceeded the birth rate threefold. And now we see that, to be precise, the excess is about 3.5 times. That is, the gap between the number of deaths and the number of births has widened. For me, this is a very alarming sign,” Aksyonova said.
She cited another alarming sign: the decline in the number of newborns occurred as early as the first half of the year, whereas the seasonal decline usually occurs at the beginning of the year, with the second half being more active.
“Of course, it’s better to wait until the end of the year, when all trends become clearer. We have certain patterns: in the first half of the year, slightly fewer children are born than in the second. But this time, the decline occurred as early as the first half of the year. And that, too, is a very alarming sign,” she emphasized.
According to Aksyonova, the difficult conditions of last winter—in particular, prolonged power and heating outages—may have influenced the decisions of Ukrainian families.
“I thought that the impact of this harsh winter, with its power and heating outages, would become apparent in the second half of the year, since the decision to have a child is made at least nine months before the baby’s birth. But the decline occurred earlier. It was also very distressing for me to see that during the winter, families with young children were effectively left to deal on their own with the problems the entire country was facing. They had to think not only about caring for a newborn but also about where to get a battery, how to warm up formula, and how to provide the child with basic necessities. “This is very difficult, and I think it will influence young families’ decisions about having children,” she explained, adding that, at the same time, part of the decline in the country’s birth rate can be attributed to pregnant women leaving the country for safety reasons.
In addition, Aksyonova drew attention to changes in the composition of Ukrainian refugees, noting a slight increase in the proportion of men among those who have received temporary protection in European countries.
According to estimates by the Institute of Demography, Ukraine’s population in government-controlled territory currently stands at less than 30 million people.
“According to our calculations, it’s between 28 and 29 million people. We no longer even estimate the figure at 30 million. But this is always a range, because such calculations involve a great many assumptions. However, it is clear that the population is declining,” she explained.
Currently, the Institute of Demography is working on a new migration strategy designed to facilitate the return of Ukrainians after the war.
“The Institute of Demography is currently engaged in very painstaking work on a migration strategy that is gradually developing mechanisms for the return of Ukrainians from abroad. This is a complex task. As they say, there are no simple solutions to complex problems. Unfortunately, there is no single universal tool for this problem that would allow us to bring people back quickly,” Aksyonova concluded.
According to “Serbian Economist”, Montenegrin citizens will not necessarily immediately gain the right to work without permits in all 27 EU member states following the country’s potential accession to the EU in 2028. The European Union has provided for the possibility of transitional restrictions lasting up to nine years.
The relevant mechanism is contained in the EU’s official negotiating position on Chapter 2, “Free Movement of Workers,” approved on June 12, 2026.
How will the restrictions work?
For the first four years, EU countries will be able to decide independently whether to open their labor markets to Montenegrins.
For up to seven years, the restrictions may be extended following the prescribed review procedure.
For up to nine years, an additional extension is permitted in the event of serious disruptions in the national labor market or the threat of such disruptions. Each EU member state will make its own decision in this regard.
Specific restrictions apply to Germany, the Netherlands, and Austria. These countries will be able to implement special protective measures in certain sectors in the event of the temporary posting of workers by Montenegrin companies.
There is also an exception for citizens who are already working: Montenegrins who are legally employed in an EU country and have had uninterrupted access to its labor market for at least 12 months will be able to enjoy broader labor rights in that country.
What does this mean in practice?
Montenegro’s accession to the European Union does not guarantee immediate freedom of employment in all EU countries. The right to work may depend on the legislation of a specific country and the transitional arrangements in effect.
If Montenegro joins the EU in 2028, the maximum restrictions could theoretically remain in place until 2037.
EU, EU accession, Labor market, MIGRATION, MONTENEGRO, transitional restrictions
According to The Serbian Economist, Montenegro continues to revise its immigration rules as part of its alignment with EU legislation. The government is simultaneously tightening requirements for foreigners obtaining residence permits through real estate and business, but is maintaining a separate mechanism for digital nomads—those who work remotely for foreign companies.
Under current and previously approved changes, a minimum property value of 200,000 euros is being introduced as a requirement for obtaining a temporary residence permit through real estate. Foreigners who already hold a residence permit on this basis will have one year to bring their status into compliance with the new requirements.
For foreigners obtaining a residence permit through their own company, the rules are also becoming stricter. A foreign CEO or owner of more than 51% of the company’s capital must have at least three employees, two of whom must be Montenegrin citizens working full-time.
At the same time, the authorities are not abandoning a separate program for digital nomads. A foreigner who works online for a foreign company or their own company registered outside Montenegro can still apply for a temporary residence permit. To do so, they must provide proof of income, housing, health insurance, and a valid reason for remote work.
This is an important compromise for the country: Montenegro aims to bring its immigration system into line with EU standards while remaining attractive to IT professionals, consultants, entrepreneurs, and other remote workers.
Separately, starting November 1, 2026, Montenegro will introduce a visa requirement for citizens of Russia, Turkey, Belarus, China, and Saudi Arabia. The government explicitly explains this as necessary to fully align its visa policy with the European Union under Negotiation Chapter 24.
Therefore, it can be assumed that maintaining a favorable regime for digital nomads and qualified foreign professionals is intended, in part, to mitigate a potential outflow of Russians and Turks that could occur following the abolition of visa-free entry and the tightening of rules for obtaining residence permits.
The scale of the foreign presence is already very large for a small country like Montenegro. According to data from the Ministry of the Interior as of September 2026, nearly 70,000 foreigners held residence permits.
The largest groups are:
Russia — 17,900 people
Serbia — 15,300
Turkey—10,600
Bosnia and Herzegovina—3,800
Kosovo—3,100
Albania—3,100
Azerbaijan—2,600
Ukraine—1,600
North Macedonia—1,200
Germany — 1,100
Thus, Russians, Serbs, and Turks alone account for about 63% of all foreigners with residence permits in Montenegro. That is why any changes to visa and immigration policies have a particularly significant impact on the real estate market, the rental market, small businesses, and the service sector.
digital nomad, MIGRATION, MONTENEGRO, REAL ESTATE, RESIDENCE PERMIT
According to the Serbian business media outlet Parametar, Serbia has seen a noticeable increase in the influx of Ukrainian citizens since April 2026. According to data cited by Radosh Džurović, director of the Center for the Protection and Assistance of Asylum Seekers, in an interview with RTS, approximately 70,000 people from Ukraine had entered Serbia by September. These figures reflect entry and exit statistics, not the number of people currently in the country.
According to Džurović, a significant change is that an increasing number of Ukrainians are not using Serbia merely as a transit country but are staying, renting housing, and seeking employment and educational opportunities. Most live in the private sector and do not use state-run accommodation centers.
Among those arriving, he said, are many people from the Kharkiv and Odesa regions, as well as from central Ukraine.
At the same time, official statistics on temporary protection are significantly lower than the total number of entries. Back in March 2026, the Center for the Protection and Assistance of Asylum Seekers reported that 1,253 Ukrainian citizens officially had temporary protection in Serbia. From the start of the full-scale war through January 2026, more than 744,000 Ukrainians entered Serbia, but most continued on their way.
This indicates that the current trend differs from previous years: some Ukrainian citizens are beginning to view Serbia not only as a transit route but also as a place for longer-term residence.
Džurović warns that if the situation in Ukraine continues to deteriorate, Serbia may face a new surge in arrivals and the need to expand its capacity to accommodate them.
The administration of U.S. President Donald Trump has proposed imposing a fee of $70,000 for an international student’s initial participation in the Optional Practical Training (OPT) program and an additional $30,000 for subsequent extensions, including those for STEM graduates.
The corresponding draft rule from the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) was published on October 8, 2026, in the Federal Register. This decision has not yet taken effect: the document is currently open for public comment, with comments accepted until November 9.
The OPT program allows international students with an F-1 visa to temporarily work in the U.S. in their field of study during or after their studies. Typically, graduates can work under OPT for up to 12 months, and an additional extension is available for STEM fields.
Under the new scheme proposed by DHS, a certified college or university would be required to pay the fee before the institution submits an OPT recommendation to the SEVIS system. Without confirmation of payment of the new fee, a student will not be able to obtain a work authorization.
If the rule is approved as currently proposed, the cost of accessing OPT will increase tenfold. Currently, obtaining a work permit costs approximately a few hundred dollars, whereas the proposed model calls for $70,000 for the initial recommendation and an additional $30,000 for each subsequent one.
DHS justifies the reform by citing the need to combat fraud and abuse in the OPT program, as well as to protect the U.S. labor market. In the draft rule, the agency refers to cases of fictitious employment of international graduates and potential violations in the program identified by ICE.
Reuters notes that OPT is one of the key pathways through which international graduates of U.S. universities gain their first work experience in the U.S. and then often transition to H-1B work visas. Therefore, the introduction of such a high fee could significantly reduce the number of graduates who remain to work in the country after completing their studies.
At the same time, the group potentially affected is very large. According to Open Doors 2025, there were 1.178 million international students at U.S. colleges and universities during the 2024–25 academic year, accounting for about 6% of all U.S. higher education students. Of these, 294,300 participated in OPT, with the number of program participants rising by 21% over the course of the year.
The largest numbers of international students come to the U.S. from India (363,000), China (266,000), South Korea (42,300), Canada (29,900), and Vietnam (25,600).
There are significantly fewer Ukrainian students at U.S. universities, but their numbers are growing. According to Open Doors 2025, 2,346 students from Ukraine were studying or participating in OPT in the U.S. during the 2024–25 academic year, which is 7.5% more than the previous year.
By comparison, there were 2,183 Ukrainian students in the U.S. during the 2023–24 academic year. At that time, about 55% of them were enrolled in bachelor’s programs, 26% in master’s and doctoral programs, 14% were participating in OPT, and another 5% were in non-degree programs.
Thus, if the composition of the Ukrainian student population remains roughly the same, the new fees could affect several hundred Ukrainians who plan to stay in the U.S. for professional practice after graduating from American universities. However, Open Doors does not provide the exact number of Ukrainians specifically on OPT in the 2024–25 academic year in its publicly available summary statistics.
Overall, the Ukrainian community in the U.S. is significantly larger than the student population. According to an estimate by the Migration Policy Institute based on the American Community Survey, more than 510,000 immigrants born in Ukraine were living in the U.S. in 2024, and the entire Ukrainian diaspora, including people of Ukrainian descent, was estimated at approximately 1.4 million people.
Critics of the proposal warn that the new fee could make U.S. universities less attractive to international applicants and redirect some students to the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and EU countries. The Presidents’ Alliance on Higher Education and Immigration has already stated that such a high financial barrier could seriously disrupt the existing system for attracting foreign graduates to the U.S. labor market.
However, the initiative’s final fate remains uncertain. After the public comment period ends, DHS may amend the proposal, drop some provisions, or adopt the final rule. Additionally, Reuters notes that the new restrictions are likely to face legal challenges.
Germany will reduce the annual limit for admitting workers under the Westbalkanregelung programme from 50,000 to 25,000 people, which will affect citizens of six Western Balkan countries at once — Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia, the Experts Club analytical center reports, citing data from the German government and the Federal Employment Agency.
The new limit is to take effect from 2027 and effectively means a return to the level that existed before June 2024, when Germany doubled the annual quota from 25,000 to 50,000 people.
Westbalkanregelung has been in force since 2016 and is a special mechanism providing citizens of the Western Balkans with access to the German labor market.
The main difference between the programme and many other channels of labor migration is that it applies not only to qualified specialists. A citizen of one of the six countries can obtain permission to work in Germany if they have a specific job offer from a German employer, while recognition of professional qualifications in Germany is generally not a mandatory requirement.
Regulated professions, such as doctors, remain an exception, as separate qualification recognition requirements apply to them.
It is precisely because of this that Westbalkanregelung has become one of the most accessible channels of legal labor migration from the region to Germany.
At the same time, there are no separate national quotas for Serbia, Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro or North Macedonia. The limit is common to all six countries, so reducing it to 25,000 people will mean increased competition among applicants from across the region.
Demand for the programme already significantly exceeds supply.
According to Germany’s Federal Employment Agency, demand continued to grow after the quota was increased to 50,000 places. In December 2025 alone, the agency had to reject around 18,000 applications because the annual limit had already been exhausted.
At the same time, the scale of labor migration from the Western Balkans significantly exceeds the figures directly related to this programme.
The Federal Employment Agency notes that, among the relevant category of foreign workers, citizens of Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia account for around a quarter of all employees in Germany covered by social insurance who have a residence permit or permanent residence based on employment.
Thus, over the past decade, the Western Balkans have become one of the important external sources of labor for the German economy.
“The German decision is interesting because it comes against the backdrop of two opposing trends. On the one hand, the German economy is experiencing a structural shortage of workers and is interested in attracting foreign labor. On the other hand, the state is tightening migration controls and reducing one of the most accessible employment channels for citizens of the Western Balkans,” said Maksym Urakin, founder of the Experts Club analytical center.
According to Experts Club, the most immediate consequence of the quota reduction may be increased competition for permits among citizens of the six countries.
If demand already exceeded supply with a limit of 50,000 places, halving the quota could potentially increase waiting times and the share of applicants who will not be able to use the programme in a particular calendar year.
At the same time, the Westbalkanregelung mechanism itself is not being closed. Citizens of the region will still be able to work in Germany through other labor migration channels provided for by law if they meet the established requirements.
Germany’s decision is also of particular interest from the demographic perspective of the Western Balkans themselves. Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia, Albania, Montenegro and Kosovo have for many years been sources of labor migration to EU countries, primarily Germany, Austria and other Western European economies.
For the countries of the region, the mass outflow of the working-age population has a dual effect. Remittances from citizens working abroad support household incomes and domestic consumption, but at the same time emigration increases labor shortages within the Balkan economies themselves.
The outflow of medical personnel, construction workers, drivers, technical specialists, service-sector employees and other categories that are in demand both in Germany and in the domestic labor markets of the countries of the region remains particularly sensitive.
“For the Western Balkans, Germany’s decision may somewhat reduce one of the channels of labor outflow, but it is unlikely by itself to substantially change migration processes. The difference in wages and employment opportunities between Germany and most of the region remains the main economic driver of migration,” Urakin believes.
The reduction of Westbalkanregelung is part of a broader adjustment of the German government’s migration policy. Among its objectives, the cabinet lists reducing irregular migration, expanding the list of safe countries of origin, increasing the number of returns and introducing stricter regulation of migration flows.
At the same time, Berlin continues to emphasize the need for legal migration for the German labor market.
This creates a certain paradox: Germany is restricting one of the most in-demand regional channels of labor migration at precisely the moment when population ageing and staff shortages are forcing the German economy to search more actively for workers outside the country.
For the Western Balkans, the consequences are also ambiguous. The quota reduction potentially reduces opportunities for new labor emigration, but at the same time may somewhat reduce pressure on national labor markets, which themselves face worker shortages.
The key indicator of the effectiveness of the decision will be how quickly the new quota of 25,000 permits is exhausted after its introduction. If demand remains at its current level, Westbalkanregelung will effectively become a significantly more competitive channel of access to the German labor market.
The Westbalkanregelung programme has been in force in Germany since 2016 and applies to citizens of Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia. In mid-2024, the annual limit was increased from 25,000 to 50,000 people. The German government has decided to limit it again to 25,000 permits per year.
Sources: Federal Government of Germany, Federal Employment Agency of Germany.
EMPLOYMENT, GERMANY, Labor market, MIGRATION, Western Balkans
