The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), in the absence of currency purchases, increased its sales on the interbank market last week by $123.8 million, or 20.0%, to $742.70 million, according to statistics from the regulator on its website. The data published by the regulator during this period indicate a change in the cash currency market: while on Monday sales exceeded purchases by $6.4 million, on Tuesday purchases exceeded sales by $6.8 million, and on Thursday there was a negative balance of $40.6 million.
‘Household activity in the cash market has been declining for the third month in a row: average daily demand fell from $41 million in February to $17 million in April. This indicates a decrease in panic sentiment, market saturation and/or the exhaustion of the population’s purchasing power against the backdrop of weak economic growth. Another factor could be the spring holiday cycle, which is a traditional period for selling foreign currency savings to celebrate and finance short-term vacations,’ commented KYT Group on the situation in the cash market.
The official hryvnia exchange rate strengthened in the first half of the week from 41.75 UAH/USD to 41.4706 UAH/USD, but weakened again to 41.7091 UAH/USD by the end of the week. Despite the increase in the negative balance, the exchange rate on the cash market did not change significantly, and over the weekend, the dollar even fell by 5 kopecks. The purchase rate fell to 41.40 UAH/$1, and the sale rate fell to 41.50 UAH/$1.
According to KYT Group experts, the dollar exchange rate will remain within a narrow range.
‘Short-term outlook (2-4 weeks): the most likely movement is towards 41.20-41.80 UAH/USD with minor deviations (±20-30 kopecks). Volatility is low, speculative demand is limited. Medium term (2-4 months): a correction to 42.00-42.50 UAH/$1 is possible in the event of increased imports, accelerated inflation or a weakening of external financing,’ the company predicts.
Source: https://interfax.com.ua/news/projects/1067965.html
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) added four insurance and/or reinsurance brokers to the Register of Insurance Intermediaries in accordance with their electronic applications.
According to the NBU website, the following companies were added to the register: Dobrobut ta Zakhyst LLC, Willis Insurance Brokers LLC, Risk and Life Consulting LLC, and the representative office of SIA Yulisire.
The National Bank also removed these companies from the State Register of Insurance and Reinsurance Brokers and revoked their certificates of entry in this register.
The relevant decisions were adopted by the Committee on Supervision and Regulation of Non-Bank Financial Services Markets on April 25, 2025.
The National Bank of Ukraine has revoked the financial services licenses of six non-banking financial institutions and excluded them from the State Register of Financial Institutions.
According to the regulator’s website, this applies to FC BI.Money LLC and Rulla Ukraine LLC, which provided funds and bank metals on credit, Prostozaym LLC, State Enterprise Ukrainian Center Security, State Innovative Financial and Credit Institution – Financial Leasing, PO Lombard Onyx Plus Chernik and Company – provided funds and bank metals on credit in the form of pawn loans.
Another non-banking financial institution changed the scope of the license for the activity of a financial company.
In addition, on the basis of its own application LLC “Financial Company Liberty Finance” agreed to change the scope of the license for the activity of a financial company. Such financial services as factoring, financial leasing, provision of guarantees were excluded from it.
After changing the scope of the license, the company will have the right to carry out activities to provide financial services – the provision of funds and bank metals on credit, the activity of trading in foreign currency values in cash on the basis of the appropriate license for foreign exchange transactions.
The relevant decisions of the Committee on supervision and regulation of non-banking financial services markets adopted on April 3, 2025.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has fined PJSC USK Knyazha Vienne Insurance Group (“Knyazha VIG”, Kiev) for UAH 2.057 million for violation of the legislation on protection of the rights of consumers of financial services, defined by the Civil Code of Ukraine and the laws of Ukraine “On electronic commerce”, “On insurance”, “On financial services and financial companies”.
According to the website of the NBU, the relevant decision of the Committee for supervision and regulation of non-banking financial services markets made on February 24, 2025, based on the results of a scheduled inspection of the company.
In addition, the regulator applied to the company a measure of influence in the form of imposing a fine of UAH 40 thousand for providing it with reporting files with inaccurate reporting indicators for the first half of 2024.
The company is obliged to pay the fines within a month after the decision comes into force.
In addition, the regulator sent the company a written warning for violation of requirements to: the management system of the insurer, the protection of the rights of consumers of financial services, the regulation of the activities of participants of the market of non-banking financial services, the activities of separate subdivisions.
IC “Knyazha VIG” is obliged to eliminate violations, and also the reasons and the conditions promoting their commitment, till April 25.
IC Knyazha VIG is a part of NFG Vienna Insurance Group Ukraine, the main shareholder of which is Vienna Insurance Group AG Wiener Versicherung Gruppe (Austria).
The National Bank of Ukraine has estimated the growth of Ukraine’s real gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter of 2024 at 4% compared to the same period last year, while previously it had forecast it at 3.1%.
“The harvesting of late crops started earlier than last year and continues, which supported the agricultural performance in the third quarter. Stable operation of the sea corridor and loose fiscal policy also supported economic activity,” the NBU said in its Inflation Report published on its website.
The NBU noted that such a revision of the economic dynamics assessment in the third quarter made it possible to raise the GDP growth forecast for this year from 3.7% to 4%.
It is specified that at the end of the third quarter, the harvested area of late crops was 81% higher than last year, and the harvest volume was 68% higher, the volume of cargo transshipment for export in seaports increased 2.1 times in the third quarter of 2024 compared to the third quarter of 2023, and the volume of rail freight increased by 15%.
“As in previous quarters, investment demand made a positive contribution to GDP growth in the third quarter. In particular, it was supported by public capital investment in defense and related projects, such as weapons production, as well as disaster relief spending,” the NBU added.
He also emphasized the growth of private sector investment due to further improvement in the financial results of enterprises and their significant needs for energy-autonomous equipment given the difficult situation in the energy sector.
Explaining the slowdown in growth to 2.4% in the fourth quarter, the NBU cited earlier harvesting of late grains and oilseeds and their significantly lower yields compared to last year as one of the reasons for the negative contribution of agriculture to real GDP.
As for 2025, the NBU has improved its growth forecast for the first quarter from 1.8% to 2.3%, and for the second quarter from 2.8% to 3.4%, expecting growth to accelerate to 4.6% in the third quarter and 6.3% in the fourth quarter, whereas previously it had estimated growth of 5.1-5.9% for the second half of the year.
As a result, the overall GDP growth forecast for next year has been improved from 4.1% to 4.3%, and in nominal terms by UAH 100 billion to UAH 8.72 trillion, while this year’s estimate of nominal GDP was raised by UAH 40 billion to UAH 7.63 trillion.
“In the future, Ukraine’s real GDP growth will accelerate (to 4.3% in 2025 and 4.6% in 2026). This will be facilitated by maintaining a loose fiscal policy, revival of domestic demand, which will be supported by wage growth, increased harvests and stable external demand, as well as investments in recovery, in particular in the energy sector,” the NBU said.
At the same time, he emphasized that economic growth will be constrained by a shortage of labor, security risks, migration processes, and the slow normalization of economic conditions.
In the updated report, the NBU retained three key risks to the forecast (with a strong impact and a probability of 25-50%): a longer duration and intensity of the war, higher budgetary needs, and a greater energy deficit due to further damage to the energy infrastructure.
Among the negative risks with a high probability (25-50%), the NBU added the potential pass-through to prices of higher interest rates or additional taxes, although the NBU assesses its impact as moderate.
The impact of the risk of more intense and prolonged blocking of cargo traffic across the border with certain EU countries remains weak in the updated Inflation Report, with the probability decreasing to less than 15%.
The NBU added increased emigration to the risk of rising geopolitical tensions with a moderate impact and a probability of 15-25%.
In addition, the probability of a positive risk, i.e. the rapid restoration of damaged energy infrastructure, has been reduced from 15-25% to less than 15%.
“The balance of risks in the baseline forecast is shifted towards increased price pressure,” the NBU said.
As reported, Ukraine’s GDP, according to the State Statistics Service, grew by 5.3% in 2023 after a 28.8% decline in 2022, including 4.7% growth in the fourth quarter of last year. In the first quarter of this year, the State Statistics Service estimated GDP growth at 6.5%, and in the second quarter – at 3.7%.
State-owned PrivatBank in July 2024 reduced its net profit by 2.6% by June – to UAH 6.25 billion and with this indicator headed the top five most profitable banks in the country in July, according to the data of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) on its website.
According to them, Privat is followed by state-owned Oschadbank, which in July received 2.18 billion UAH of net profit compared to 0.07 billion UAH in June.
Universal Bank (mono) rounded out the top three, having almost eightfold increased its profit compared to June – up to UAH 0.84 bln.
It is followed by two banks with foreign capital: Credit Agricole and Raiffeisen Bank with UAH 0.62 bln (+28.3% to June) and UAH 0.56 bln (+78%) respectively.
The second five most profitable banks in July were headed by Ukrsibbank, which increased its net profit by 10.1% to UAH 0.55 bln. It also included: City Bank – UAH 0.54 billion, Ukrgasbank – UAH 0.43 billion, FUIB – UAH 0.42 billion and Ukreximbank – UAH 0.38 billion.
In July 2024, net profit of over UAH 100 million was received by three more banks: OTP Bank – UAH 365.3 million, Pivdennyi Bank – UAH 340.7 million and Kredobank – UAH 193.5 million.
At the same time, the three most unprofitable banks in July were formed by Sense Bank with net loss of UAH 65.67 mln, Alliance Bank – UAH 17.81 mln and Pravex Bank – UAH 13.34 mln.
The list of the most profitable banks in general for seven months of this year is also headed by Privat with a large gap – UAH 37.16 billion, followed by Oschadbank – UAH 11.00 billion.
Next in a denser group are Raif – UAH 4.87 billion, Ukrexim – UAH 4.74 billion, FUIB – UAH 4.24 billion, Credit Agricole – UAH 4.22 billion Ukrsib – UAH 3.97 billion and Ukrgas – UAH 3.73 billion.
Six other banks also received net profit over UAH 1 billion for 7 months of this year: mono – UAH 3.19 billion, OTP – UAH 3.00 billion, City – UAH 2.73 billion, Sense – UAH 2.21 billion, Pivdennyi – UAH 1.61 billion and Credo – UAH 1.16 billion.
A-Bank is a little short of this threshold – UAH 0.92 billion, while ProCredit Bank, which follows it, has a net profit of UAH 0.60 billion.
As for unprofitable banks, according to the results of January-July, there are 8 out of 62 banks in Ukraine. The worst indicator is Pravex Bank – UAH 95.79 billion, followed by Industrialbank – UAH 39.00 billion.
At the First Investbank and Motor-Bank, which were transferred to the state from the sub-sanctioned owners following the results of the trial, the net loss for 7 months amounted to UAH 25.69 mln and UAH 14.69 mln, respectively.
