The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) expects that the grain harvest in 2023 will decrease by 15% compared to 2022 and will amount to 46 million tons, said deputy head of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) Serhiy Mykolaychuk.
“For this year, we assume that the grain harvest will be about 46 million tons and this is about 15% less than last year. For other crops, the situation is better. Somewhere even more than last year we allow for the harvest, somewhere less,” he said during a press briefing on Thursday.
Nikolaychuk noted that the harvest is one of the factors that the NBU took into account when revising the GDP forecast and when forecasting the trade balance and current account deficit.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has improved its inflation forecast for 2023 to 18.7% (the October forecast was 20.8%), as the market expected, the regulator’s press service said Thursday.
“The NBU forecasts a slowdown in inflation to 18.7% in 2023. This will be facilitated by continued tight monetary conditions, lower global inflation and weaker consumer demand amid power outages,” the statement explained.
It is pointed out that the receipt of announced volumes of international aid and joint actions of the NBU and the government on boosting the market of domestic debt attracting will allow to avoid emission financing of the budget deficit and to balance the currency market.
The regulator expects that inflation will slow down more quickly in the years to come due to lower security risks, a full recovery in logistics and an increase in yields.
The NBU, in particular, predicts that it will fall to 10.4 percent in 2024 and 6.7 percent in 2025.
“The main contribution to inflation in these years will have an administrative component due to the need to bring tariffs for housing and communal services to market levels,” the central bank explained.
It is noted that over the past three months the annual inflation rate has remained almost unchanged.
Stabilization of inflationary pressure was facilitated by the de-occupation of territories, the expansion of food supply, measures taken by the NBU and weaker consumer demand amid Russia’s energy terror.
At the same time, price pressures remain significant due to the aftermath of the war, including the destruction of enterprises and infrastructure and disruption of production and supply chains. Inflation expectations remained elevated despite stabilization.
The National Bank named the first issue of domestic government bonds (OVGZ) – benchmark OVGZ with which banks will be able to form up to 50% of the increased required reserves – this issue (ISIN UA4000227045) maturing August 7, 2024, which the Ministry of Finance first placed at an auction on January 3.
“According to estimates of the NBU, such a step will contribute to a more active participation of banks in the primary market of government bonds and, as a result, prevent the emission financing of the budget deficit in 2023 and the absorption of part of the free liquidity of the banking system,” the central bank said in a statement on its website on Friday.
According to it, the NBU adopted the relevant decision № 7 on January 5, it comes into force on January 10.
Only one buyer bought the securities at the initial auction on January 3 – for 1.077 billion hryvnyas at 19.25% per annum.
As earlier reported, on December 8, the NBU announced that from January 11 it will raise the required reserve ratio for current accounts (demand deposits) in UAH and foreign currency by 5 p.p. – The bank will allow to cover up to 50% of the total volume of the required reserves at the expense of benchmark OVDPs.
The mandatory reserves for the period from December 11, 2022 to January 10, 2023 amount to UAH 69.76 billion, while the volume of banks’ funds in certificates of deposit is about UAH 466 billion.
According to estimates of the National Bank, such a decision will allow the Ministry of Finance to attract an additional UAH 50 billion.
In the Memorandum with the IMF on the Monitoring Program with the Board of Directors it was stated that over 60% of the OVDP-benchmarks will be new securities, while up to 40% will be already circulating in the market with maturity after January 1, 2024.
Currently, the Ministry of Finance lists 10 issues of benchmark OVDPs on its website, of which the National Bank has so far recognized only one new issue listed above. In addition, the Ministry of Finance lists three more issues maturing in 2023, three in 2024: in February, May and October, and one each maturing in 2025 (in February), 2026 (in May) and 2027 (in May).
Net sales of dollars by the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), after jumping to $1 billion 101.79 million in the last week of last year, fell to $674.7 million in the first week of the new year.
According to the National Bank on its website, it bought $7.9 million from Jan. 2 to 6, which corresponds to the usual volume of purchases during the war, while it sold $682.6 million, compared to $1 billion 101.79 million a week earlier.
At the cash market the dollar went up again at the level of about 40.75 UAH/$1, but the spread has narrowed a bit.
As we informed, the volume of the NBU’s interventions in December increased to $3.16 bln from $1.57 bln in November and $2.03 bln in October.
Overall for 2022, the NBU bought $3 billion 268.0 million and EUR111.0 million from the market and sold $26 billion 380.6 million and EUR1 billion 789.1 million.
Including the purchase of foreign currency has reached $2 billion 611.1 million and EUR111.0 million since the war began, while the sale – $23 billion 610.4 million and EUR1 billion 789.1 million.
International reserves of the National Bank increased by 1.9% or $536.4 million in December to $28.491 billion due to currency receipts from international partners, which exceeded the NBU interventions to sell foreign currency to support the fixed rate.
Overall, they fell by 7.9%, or $2.45 bln in 2022.
The National Bank of Ukraine has cancelled licenses for four financial companies and one credit union, and excluded two credit unions from the State Register of Financial Institutions, according to the regulator’s website.
According to the NBU, the decisions of December 12, all licenses of Holastis Financial Company LLC, Maximum Financial Company LLC and Credit Finance Ukraine Financial Company LLC have been annulled.
As reported, on October 19, 2022 the mentioned institutions have been applied sanctions in the form of temporary suspension of licenses to provide financial services due to non-provision of information and documents about the ownership structure requested by the National Bank of Ukraine. As of the moment of taking decision on cancellation of licenses the violations have not been eliminated.
Besides, LLC “FC “Plaza Inves” has its license for provision of financial leasing services revoked due to failure to provide any financial service under this license during 12 months since the day of its issuance.
CC “Ukrainian Oshchad Center” is also excluded from the State Register of financial institutions due to the cancellation of all previous licenses and CC “Elliada” on the basis of its own application, guided by the special procedure during martial law.
The leaders of the insurance market of Ukraine in terms of net insurance premiums collected in January-September 2022 were insurance companies ARX (UAH 2.228 billion), “Unica” (UAH 1.813 billion) and SG “TAS” (UAH 1.685 billion, all – Kyiv).
As reported in the main indicators of insurance companies in Ukraine for 8M2012, published on the NBU web site. 2022, the leaders in insurance payments in this period were Unica (980 mln UAH), ARX (775,7mn UAH) and SG TAS (675,6 mln UAH).
Data: NBU, mln UAH
