The National Bank of Ukraine is discussing the issue of a possible entry into the secondary market with its portfolio of domestic government bonds, as this may be one of the elements of strengthening monetary transmission and sterilizing excess hryvnia liquidity, NBU deputy head Serhiy Nikolaychuk said.
“In addition, this step will reduce the negative impact of the issue. We are working on technical issues and consulting with our stakeholders,” he said in an interview with Delo.
Commenting on the opinion that the National Bank’s entry into the market with its bonds may reduce the effectiveness of the primary auctions of the Ministry of Finance, Nikolaychuk noted that the reason for the low results of these auctions lies in the low rates offered to buyers, which was confirmed by insignificant volumes of attraction even before the resumption of the secondary government bonds market in early August.
“In order for the auctions of the Ministry of Finance to be successful, it should move towards the government bonds yield that the market wants to see. The NBU, in the event of an exit with its portfolio of government bonds, will focus primarily on the market yield of government bonds. Otherwise, such a step would make no sense” – said the deputy head of the NBU.
According to him, now for the most liquid hryvnia government bonds with a circulation period of 6-12 months, rates in the secondary market have stabilized at the level of 20-25% per annum, while the Ministry of Finance offers 12-14%.
Speaking about the situation in the foreign exchange market, Nikolaychuk pointed out that today the balance of supply and demand in the foreign exchange market of the National Bank “is more or less satisfactory.”
“And according to our estimates, it should not worsen during September and October. We also expect that, thanks to international assistance, we will be able to keep gold and foreign exchange reserves at a sufficient level,” the deputy head of the NBU said.
Currently, the total value of government bonds in the portfolio of the National Bank in terms of the principal debt is UAH 619.5 billion, while the total government bonds in circulation are worth UAH 1 trillion 280.9 billion, and the portfolio of banks is UAH 497.2 billion, non-residents – 66.9 billion UAH, legal entities – UAH 65.8 billion and individuals – UAH 30.8 billion.
The leader in increasing the volume of public deposits in June was the state-owned PrivatBank, which increased them by UAH 21.08 billion, or 6.6%, over the month.
As reported on the website of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), another representative of the state, Oshchadbank, follows: the absolute inflow of public funds to it amounted to UAH 5.74 billion, and the relative inflow was 4.2%.
At the same time, if at Privat the number of depositors increased by 68.03 thousand, including currency depositors – by 35.98 thousand, then at Oshchad the number of depositors decreased by 30.5 thousand. with an increase in currency by 2.8 thousand
The largest increase in the number of depositors in June was shown by the Ukrainian Universal Bank (monobank) – 114.91 thousand, including currency depositors – 48.15 thousand. With such an increase in depositors, the increase in deposits amounted to 2.6%, or UAH 1.16 billion, which ensured the bank the fourth position.
Banks with foreign capital – Ukrsibbank and Raiffeisenbank, in which 40% and 30% respectively belong to the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), took third and fifth place. Deposits in them increased in June by UAH 1.59 billion, or 3.8%, and by UAH 1.09 billion, or 2%, respectively, and the number of depositors increased by 20.6 thousand. and 10.1 thousand
On the other side of the list is Alfa-Bank, deposits in which in June decreased by UAH 943.5 million, or 2.2%, including currency deposits – by UAH 699.5 million, or 3.4%. At the same time, the number of depositors increased by 13,140, which is probably due to the bank’s card product and a good exchange rate for it.
In addition, UAH 386.7 million, or 1% of the funds of natural persons, was left in June by FUIB. He also had the largest part of the outflow – UAH 224.7 million – on currency deposits.
The outflow of funds from Accordbank amounted to UAH 124.3 million, or 6.8%, from Vostok Bank – UAH 103.7 million, or 2%.
Rounding out the bottom five is A-Bank, whose deposit volume in June decreased by UAH 74.7 million, or by 0.8%. At the same time, the increase in depositors was 59.08 thousand. – it came third, second only to monobank and PrivatBank, and far ahead of the trailing TASkombank with 22.68 thousand. new depositors.
In general, according to the data of the NBU, in June the funds of individuals in banks increased by UAH 30.36 billion, or by 3.5% – almost all due to hryvnia deposits, since currency deposits increased by only UAH 0.17 billion, or by 0 ,1%.
Data on the volume of deposits and the number of individual depositors in Ukrainian banks as of 07/1/22 and their dynamics in June (Ukrainian)
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has canceled the licenses of FC Constanta M, DSD Finance, 24 Online and Financial Guarantee, which cover 15% of the currency exchange market, for violating the requirements of currency legislation, the press service of the regulator said on Friday.
According to the report, the central bank also fined Finovis and 24 Online companies UAH 151,000 each for violating money laundering laws.
It is indicated that as of August 4, the NBU conducted 40 inspections of structural units of 15 non-banking financial institutions.
These decisions were made at a meeting of the Committee on Supervision and Regulation of the Markets of Non-Banking Financial Institutions on August 5.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) expects a reduction in international reserves in the second half of the year by 8.6% – from $22.8 billion to $20.8 billion and maintaining them at this level in 2023, the regulator’s forecast says.
According to him, at the end of 2023, the reserves will amount to $21.2 billion, and in 2024 they will grow to $28.7 billion.
At the same time, the current account balance, according to the regulator’s forecasts, will be positive and amount to $6.4 billion by the end of 2022, while at the end of last year it was negative and amounted to $3.2 billion.
The NBU expects that by the end of 2023 and 2024 this figure will be negative and amount to $3.9 billion and $8.8 billion, respectively.
From 09:00 on July 21, 2022, the National Bank of Ukraine adjusted the official exchange rate of the hryvnia against the US dollar by 25% – from UAH 29.2549/$1 to UAH 36.5686/$1, taking into account changes in the fundamental characteristics of the Ukrainian economy during the war and strengthening of the US dollar against other currencies, according to a message on the NBU website.
“Such a step will increase the competitiveness of Ukrainian producers, bring together the exchange rate conditions for different business groups and the population and maintain the stability of the economy in a war,” the National Bank said.
He stressed that the official exchange rate of the hryvnia against the US dollar continues to be fixed.
“With the high uncertainty caused by the war, a fixed official exchange rate against the US dollar is the main anchor for stabilizing expectations and a key means of achieving the NBU’s priority goals. They are to ensure price and financial stability, which is an important condition for economic recovery,” the regulator explains its position.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) will keep the current fixed exchange rate for the time being, Deputy Head of the Regulator Yuriy Heletiy said.
“For the time being, we keep everything as it is. A fixed exchange rate helps to contain the rate of price growth and meet the needs of the economy, which is slowly recovering. We will continue to monitor the situation on the market,” he said in an interview with Forbes.ua.
He added that the NBU is ready to consider refusing to fix the exchange rate if the uncertainty associated with hostilities decreases, in particular, the end of the hot phase of the war, as well as the stabilization of foreign exchange earnings and the improvement of the situation on the financial market.
In addition, although in the long term a fixed exchange rate has more disadvantages, in particular, it creates economic imbalances, reduces the competitiveness of Ukrainian producers, but it is necessary at present because it prevents panic, protects savings from hryvnia devaluation and reduces the cost of critical imports, Heletiy explained.
“At the same time, a floating exchange rate is not an end in itself, it is a means of achieving macro-financial stability,” the deputy head of the NBU specified.
As reported, on February 24, the National Bank suspended the work of the foreign exchange market of Ukraine, except for the sale of foreign currency, and fixed the exchange rate at the official level of that day – UAH 29.2549/$1, which led to the emergence of a “black” market, where in the first days the exchange rate reached 39-40 UAH/$1.
Later, the regulator allowed the sale of currency in branches under the threat of capture by the occupiers, by decision of their management, and from May 21, it canceled the upper limit of both the rate of selling cash currency by banks in Ukraine and the rate of converting the hryvnia into foreign currency on their cards outside the country. Previously, the ceiling for such an exchange rate was the official hryvnia exchange rate fixed on the first day of the war plus 10%, or UAH 32.18/$1. The ceiling for other currencies was calculated at the cross rate against the dollar.
