In January 2026, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) reduced foreign exchange interventions by $14 million, or 0.4%, compared to January last year, to $3 billion 375.5 million, while the official hryvnia exchange rate depreciated against the dollar by 2.5%, or UAH 1.2.
At the same time, in the last week of January, the NBU reduced dollar sales on the interbank market by $202.1 million, or 19%, to $859.5 million.
According to the National Bank, in the first four days of last week, the average daily negative balance of buying and selling foreign currency by legal entities decreased to $95.5 million from $137.6 million in the same period a week earlier and totaled $381.8 million.
The negative balance in the market of foreign exchange transactions of households for Saturday-Thursday also decreased to $34.0 million from $36.4 million the week before last, with sales of non-cash currency exceeding purchases on all days.
The official hryvnia/dollar exchange rate, which started last week at 43.1391 UAH/$1, strengthened to 42.7689 UAH/$1 over three days and ended the week at 42.8483 UAH/$1.
In the cash market, the dollar’s exchange rate last week followed the trajectory of the official rate. In total, the dollar fell by about 27 kopecks during this period: buying – to 42.70 UAH/$1, selling – to 43.07 UAH/$1.
According to analysts of KYT Group, a major participant in the cash foreign exchange market (Liberty Finance LLC), the key event on the international market in the second half of January was the Fed meeting: the regulator, as expected by the markets, left the base rate unchanged, actually taking a break after three consecutive cuts in 2025.
Against this backdrop, the dollar weakened against the euro throughout the month (EUR/USD reached 1.2038, followed by a pullback), while US President Donald Trump’s rhetoric pushed investors to defensive assets, which supported the euro.
In the domestic market, analysts believe that the NBU will continue its policy of managed exchange rate flexibility, while at the same time expecting that the projected amount of foreign aid will be sufficient to finance the budget deficit without issuing new debt and maintain international reserves at a level sufficient to maintain the stability of the foreign exchange market. An additional factor for market expectations was the central bank’s decision to start an interest rate easing cycle and cut the key policy rate from 15.5% to 15% starting January 30, 2026.
According to KYT Group’s forecasts, in the next one to two weeks, the dollar will remain in the basic range of 42.9-43.4 UAH/$1 with the risk of fluctuations towards a weaker hryvnia, in the medium term of two to three months – 43.50-44.00 UAH/$1, while in the first half of 2026, the benchmark remains
43.5-44.9 UAH/$1.
