The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has decided from October 25 to lower the refinancing rate to 15.5% per annum from 16.5% per annum, at which it has been since September 6 of this year.
“The National Bank continues the cycle of easing monetary policy, as it expects inflation to slow to the target of 5%,” the central bank said on Thursday.
The NBU Board said that the basis of this stable trend is the gradual weakening of fundamental pressure on prices, the sign of which is the rapid slowdown in underlying inflation.
“Tight monetary policy has become one of the reasons for the strengthening of the exchange rate and improvement of inflation expectations. This influences prices significantly and exceeds the influence of factors that, on the contrary, push prices upward, in particular, the effect of still stable consumer demand,” the regulator said.
According to its forecasts, inflation this year will drop to 6.3%, and next year it will fall into the target range and reach medium-term 5% at the end of 2020.
“As before, the sharpest decrease in the refinancing rate is expected during 2020 along with the return of inflation to the target range and the improvement of inflation expectations,” the NBU said.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has improved its hryvnia exchange rate forecast for 2020 as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank did, Ukrainian Finance Minister Oksana Markarova has said, without specifying the concrete figure. In all forecasts and in forecasts of the National Bank, the exchange rate for the next year is strengthened, that is, the rate on which the budget was based (UAH 28.20/$1). Obviously, it will not be like that anymore, the finance minister said in an interview with the Voice of America in Washington.
She added that soon the Finance Ministry and the government will receive an updated forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development, Trade and Agriculture, on the basis of which changes will be made to the draft national budget for 2020.
The forecasts of all the organizations, the National Bank say that the rate is strengthening and this is a long-term trend. Therefore, there will be fluctuations, but we should expect that this strengthening is not some small fluctuation of this year, but this is a new normality, Markarova said.
As reported, since the beginning of 2019, the hryvnia exchange rate has strengthened by 10.3%, to UAH 24.835244/$1.
The National Bank of Ukraine does not officially announce its exchange rate forecasts, at the same time, it sends them to the government for drawing up the draft national budget.
The updated macro-forecast of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) assumes receiving $2 billion from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) under the Extended Fund Facility, as well as the issue of eurobonds worth $1 billion, deputy governor of the NBU Dmytro Sologub has said at a press conference in Kyiv.
“We expect that in the fourth quarter the new program is likely to start with the IMF, and Ukraine will receive $2 billion. And we also expect $2 billion in each of the next years as part of the new structural financing program,” he said.
Sologub stressed that such an assessment is an expert commentary. According to him, if the funds arrive a little earlier or a little later, it will not have a significant impact on other macroeconomic parameters, except for international reserves.
The banker also estimated, based on the example of other countries and the size of Ukraine’s quota in the IMF, that the size of the new program could be in the range of $5-10 billion for a period of 36 to 48 months.
“We have no insight, this is our expert assessment,” he said.
Sologub also said that the National Bank laid down in its forecast another entry of Ukraine to foreign markets with eurobonds in the amount of about $1 billion as its expert assessment.
The updated macro-forecast of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) assumes receiving $2 billion from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) under the Extended Fund Facility, deputy governor of the NBU Dmytro Sologub has said at a press conference in Kyiv.
“We expect that in the fourth quarter the new program is likely to start with the IMF, and Ukraine will receive $2 billion. And we also expect $2 billion in each of the next years as part of the new structural financing program,” he said.
Sologub stressed that such an assessment is an expert commentary. According to him, if the funds arrive a little earlier or a little later, it will not have a significant impact on other macroeconomic parameters, except for international reserves.
The banker also estimated, based on the example of other countries and the size of Ukraine’s quota in the IMF, that the size of the new program could be in the range of $5-10 billion for a period of 36 to 48 months.
“We have no insight, this is our expert assessment,” he said.
Sologub also said that the National Bank laid down in its forecast another entry of Ukraine to foreign markets with eurobonds in the amount of about $1 billion as its expert assessment.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) in the period from June 24 to June 27 bought $44 million in the interbank foreign exchange market, which is 8.6% more than a week earlier ($40.5 million).
According to the website of the central bank, $20 million was acquired at the best purchase and sale price (using the matching instrument), $24 million at a single rate (using the matching instrument).
In June, the National Bank bought $322.3 million compared with $203.6 million in May and $299.9 million in April.
In general, since the beginning of this year, the NBU bought $1.639 billion in the interbank market and sold $231.43 million.
The National Bank of Ukraine in accordance with the updated methodology has increased the number of systemically important banks to 14, whereas since 2016 their number remained unchanged at three, including state-owned PrivatBank, Oschadbank and Ukreximbank, the regulator has said.
The expanded list of such banks also includes state-owned Ukrgasbank and private Alfa-Bank with the merging Ukrsotsbank, Raiffeisen Bank Aval, FUIB, UkrSibbank, TAScombank and Universal Bank controlled by Sergiy Tigipko, Kredobank, OTP Bank and Bank Pivdenny.
The National Bank noted that systemically important banks are the banks whose bankruptcy or improper functioning can lead to systemic risks, while obtaining this status imposes an additional burden on the banks as they must fulfill certain increased requirements to ensure their safety margin.
In particular, the National Bank of Ukraine established special values of quick liquidity ratio for such banks from January 1, 2020: at least 30% of current liabilities (for other banks 20%) and the maximum credit risk per counterparty at no more than 20% of regulatory capital (for other banks 25%).
