The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has published a long-term forecast for the period until 2050, according to which oil and natural gas will remain the main sources of energy, occupying more than half of the global energy balance. This confirms the importance of hydrocarbons in the global economy and the strategic nature of energy policy.
Oil and gas demand forecast
The key drivers are:
Contradictions with other forecasts
This outlook indicates that oil and gas will retain its prominent position for at least the next 25 years. And while renewable energy is rapidly gaining momentum, the transition away from the traditional energy system must be smooth and gradual, taking into account real economic and social factors.
The introduction of quotas on Ukrainian oil imports by the European Union in mid-June led to an increase in domestic prices for the product, industry analytical agency Infagro reported on Wednesday.
“In the first two weeks of the quotas, Ukrainian suppliers have already used about 25% of the allocated volume, and demand from European buyers remains high due to the price difference,” analysts said.
They noted that dumping in the trade of Ukrainian butter is causing discontent among Polish producers, which could negatively affect negotiations on further expansion of trade privileges for Ukraine. The European Commission is already taking these signals into account, the report said.
According to experts, preliminary estimates show that despite a pause in exports at the beginning of the month, significantly more of this product was exported from Ukraine in June than in the first quarter on average. The main driver was high export prices: in the EU — $7,300–7,500/ton (FCA), in Moldova — at least $7,000/ton.
At the same time, in the second half of June, domestic prices for oil continued to rise.
“Despite the decline in production compared to May, oil production in July is expected to be significantly higher than last year,” Infagro predicts.
Oil prices accelerated their rise on Thursday afternoon as investors continued to monitor the Iran-Israel conflict, fearing supply disruptions if it escalates further.
The price of August Brent futures on the London ICE Futures exchange rose by $0.63 (0.82%) to $77.33 per barrel as of 13:53 GMT.
WTI oil contracts for July on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) rose by $1.07 (1.42%) to $76.21 per barrel.
The situation in the Middle East remains in the spotlight. Investors are most concerned about the threat of restrictions on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, which could lead to significant disruptions in oil supplies. The lack of clarity regarding US plans for involvement in the Iranian-Israeli conflict is negatively affecting market sentiment.
US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that he had not yet made a final decision on how to resolve the Iranian issue. He reiterated that he did not rule out resuming talks with Tehran. At the same time, Trump noted that the outcome should be guarantees that Tehran will not have nuclear weapons.
The unpredictability that characterizes Trump’s foreign policy “is causing nervousness in a market that is looking for clearer signals that could affect global oil supplies and regional stability,” said Priyanka Sachdeva, an analyst at brokerage firm Phillip Nova.
RBC Capital Markets analyst Helima Croft believes that the threat of serious supply disruptions will increase if Iran feels a real threat to its existence. In her opinion, US involvement in the conflict could provoke direct attacks on tankers and energy infrastructure.
Meanwhile, according to data published yesterday by the US Department of Energy, commercial oil reserves in the country fell by 11.473 million barrels last week, marking a record drop since June last year. Experts had expected a decline of 2.3 million barrels, according to Trading Economics.
Gasoline inventories increased by 209,000 barrels, distillates by 514,000 barrels. Inventories at the Cushing terminal, where oil traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) is stored, fell by 995,000 barrels.
Oil prices are rising sharply on Friday morning on news of Israeli strikes on Iran.
The price of August Brent futures on the London ICE Futures exchange rose by $5.8 (8.36%) to $75.16 per barrel as of 8:11 a.m. On Thursday, these contracts fell by $0.41 (0.59%) to $69.36 per barrel.
WTI crude oil futures for July delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) rose by $5.91 (8.69%) to $73.95 per barrel. At the end of Thursday’s session, the value of these contracts decreased by $0.11 (0.16%) to $68.04 per barrel.
The Israeli Air Force launched dozens of strikes on nuclear and missile sites in Iran on Thursday, according to the Axios portal.
“Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz announced a state of emergency throughout the country and said: ‘Following the State of Israel’s preemptive strike against Iran, a missile attack and drone attack against the State of Israel and its civilian population is expected in the near future,’” the portal reported.
A representative of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) told reporters that the operation to destroy Iran’s nuclear capabilities and ballistic missile capabilities would last several days.
The official explained that in recent weeks, “signs have emerged” that Iran is seeking to build a nuclear bomb.
“We are now in a strategically advantageous position and close to the point of no return, and we had no choice but to take action,” he said.
The prospect of an escalating conflict in the Middle East threatens shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for about 20% of global oil supplies, according to Trading Economics.
The State Oil Company of Azerbaijan (SOCAR) produced 7 million 485.59 thousand tons of oil in 2024, according to the company’s report on last year’s results.
As reported, SOCAR produced 7 million 736.202 thousand tons of oil in 2023. Thus, last year, the figure decreased by 3.2%.
According to the data, gas production in 2024 amounted to 7 billion 718.053 million cubic meters, compared to 8 billion 390.738 million cubic meters a year earlier. Thus, DNAOC reduced gas production by 8% last year.
The company also notes that last year, gas consumption in Azerbaijan amounted to 13 billion 666.353 million cubic meters, which is 1.7% more than in 2023.
Earlier, the republic’s Ministry of Energy, citing operational data, reported that in 2024, the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan produced 7.5 million tons of oil with condensate at its own fields, which is 3.8% less than in 2023, as well as 7.7 billion cubic meters of gas, which is 8.3% lower than the previous year.
Oil prices remained in the red on Wednesday after the publication of the US Department of Energy’s weekly report on energy reserves in the country.
Commercial oil inventories in the US last week increased by 3.46 million barrels to 415.13 million barrels, the Energy Department reported. Gasoline stocks increased by 2.96 million barrels, distillate stocks decreased by 4.99 million barrels.
The cost of March futures for Brent on the London ICE Futures exchange as of 18:00 hours is $77.3 per barrel, which is $0.19 (0.25%) lower than at the close of the previous trading.
March futures for WTI during trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) decreased in price by $0.36 (0.49%) to $73.41 per barrel.
Traders’ attention is still focused on the actions of US President Donald Trump, who intends to impose a 25 percent duty on imports from Canada, a major supplier of oil to the US market, starting February 1.
“The oil market continues to dance to the rhythm of Trump’s tariff orchestra, with the focus on the duties for Canada that will take effect this Saturday,” said Ole Hansen, who is responsible for commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.
Traders are also waiting for news from OPEC+. Kazakhstan’s Energy Minister Almasadam Satkaliyev said on Wednesday that a meeting at the level of OPEC+ representatives is planned in the near future to discuss, among other things, the US plans to increase oil production.
